When will 2016 Alaska cruise start dropping?

So far 2016 Alaska cruise prices has been sticky since June. But I know they do drop as once the succeeding year IT's come out, the price of the current year is more expensive than the succeeding year for most cruise lines, NCL included.

Like early this year when, similar sailings of 2015 is cheaper than 2016 sailing.

So when will 2016 Alaska start dropping? Do it usually drop during thanksgiving? During the WAVE season of 2016? Or it will begin dropping once 2017 Alaska IT comes out?

All I know for Alaska if you are not particular in any cabin location, it is always better to book later than sooner as it is cheaper.

I believe that as long as cabins are selling at the right rate there will be no price adjustments - if the rate goes below some limit prices will go down - if it gets too high they will go up. I also wonder if they also raise, then lower prices slightly just to trigger the price tracking websites :D

There was a $200 drop on balcony cabins some sailings on the Pearl 2 days ago. (see for example: https://www.cruisewatch.net/54-Norwegian-Cruise-Line/74-Norwegian-Pearl/13019-7-Night-Alaska-Glacier-Bay.html)

If I look at the pricing history for the Pearl for balcony cabins I can see that usually there are no price drops until very late before the sailing (40 days).

(source: https://www.cruisewatch.net/cruise-lines/norwegian-cruise-line/74-Norwegian-Pearl/price-history.html)

This tells me that they tend to not discount sailings unless they are not selling well. In all likelihood there will not be a single date where prices will drop, but you will have to look at price drops across all interesting sailings. Use a monitoring service to give you an alert when that happens.

P.S.: - Addition:

There are consistent price drop for internal cabins. Not sure you want an inside cabin on a Alaska sailing, though.

If I look at the pricing history for the Pearl for balcony cabins I can see that usually there are no price drops until very late before the sailing (40 days).

(source: https://www.cruisewatch.net/cruise-lines/norwegian-cruise-line/74-Norwegian-Pearl/price-history.html)

 

P.S.: - Addition:

There are consistent price drop for internal cabins. Not sure you want an inside cabin on a Alaska sailing, though.

Yes, you are correct and I have the same observation. Actually next year will be my 3rd Alaska cruise and I have been monitoring the prices since 2 years ago.

Same experience my Norwegian Sun 14 night cruise 2 years I ago, I initially booked an inside 1.5 years in advance and taught I got a good deal when they cancelled my Sept cruise and moved it to peak season June-July being price protected at Sept shoulder season. To my horror the balcony prices 2 weeks prior to sailing dropped to less than 50% of what I paid for an inside, due to technicality of my cruise being back to back at the same stateroom at after final payment period, they refused to upgrade me to Balcony and after all the arguments and several persistent calls back and forth, they just gave me an $100 OBC as compensation.

After that I decided just to book an Alaska cruise in the last minute and get whatever room is left unsold.

It is true that insides for Alaska is a bargain close to sailing date as Balconies and OV tend to sell out first.

And another thing I observed is one way Alaska cruises (Vancouver to Seward) or those that are not round trip e.g. Vancouver to Seattle etc tend to drop more in the last minute than round trip Vancouver or Seattle cruises.

Of course I also notice with NCL (and Princess as well) that comparing next year to this year's prices of similar sailing months.... most of the time, this year's prices are lower than next years prices..

That is why I started this thread asking when do they actually dropping prices big such that next year's prices more expensive than this year.

For Alaska the start and end of the season tend to drop but the peak season tends to stay strong on price.

We are booked on the Pearl the last week of August in a balcony RT Seattle. I booked the last week in March. So far, the price per person is $300 more each than what I booked in March. It has done nothing but go up so far. I have stopped looking so much. I am happy with the price we paid, and got UBP without having to pay the gratuities and I prepaid the dsc at the lower rate.

Our June 4th Jewel cruise outside cabin has already gone up since I booked it. FWIW

Normally RT cruises go up then drop steeply few weeks before sailing.

That is why tend to book non RT cruises for the price to drop earlier...

I've priced many Alaska cruises and also the corresponding air fares. I've noticed that later in the season the cruise and the cabin I want may drop $200 but then the air fare may be $300 higher.

Since I live in Louisiana, this is a determining factor. If you live in driving distance it may not matter.

I've priced many Alaska cruises and also the corresponding air fares. I've noticed that later in the season the cruise and the cabin I want may drop $200 but then the air fare may be $300 higher.

 

Since I live in Louisiana, this is a determining factor. If you live in driving distance it may not matter.

Good point. I have noticed that too. Different if you are driving distance from port , which I am not.

I've priced many Alaska cruises and also the corresponding air fares. I've noticed that later in the season the cruise and the cabin I want may drop $200 but then the air fare may be $300 higher.

 

Since I live in Louisiana, this is a determining factor. If you live in driving distance it may not matter.

That is why I already booked the airfare for a specific date but haven't book the cruise yet perhaps until a week before sailing....or if a new sale comes along...confident of a drop as it is shoulder season and it is not a RT cruise.

Right now the sale is no longer good as gratuities are being charged if you pick the UBP.. so might as well do without it in exchange for the last minute price drop.

Always book early. Then you can cancel and rebook...or get the lower price if one occurs..anytime until final payment.