Breakaway 9/17 Bermuda. Rerouting?

Checking the path of Hurricane Jose. It looks like it will come up to the northeast . I am afraid the breakaway might reroute to Canada, which I do not want..

Probably too early to tell, but that is probably a logical re-route.

It is too early to tell. As we've just witnessed with Irma in Florida, model accuracy in the 7-10 day range in not very reliable. But it is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Since we're talking about models, the 12Z ECMWF (European model) has the storm in the Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday 9/20. So, in this model's opinion, Canada would not be a place you'd want to be.

Friendly disclaimer: Weather model output should never be considered a forecast, but used as guidance for meteorologists to create a forecast. Best bet is to stick with the National Hurricane Center's five day storm track and heed the "cone of uncertainty".

both models don't look good

Following. I'm on this cruise also

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Models have Jose well away from Bermuda.

Following. I'm on this cruise also

 

 

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I too am on this cruise, there are some references to Jose maybe affecting New England & Canada, if that's the case, we would have nowhere to reroute to:(. At that point cancelling would be better. Lets hope for the best right now.

Bonnie

I am in this cruise as well, hoping Jose weakens significantly in the next week.

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Models have Jose well away from Bermuda.

Agree. Jose is going to make a clockwise loop/circle then head west, maybe northwest too soon to tell on that.

Looking a bit better for us!

Bonnie

Looking a bit better for us!

 

Bonnie

How do you figure? I am really curious, not being snarky, as I am thinking it is looking worse for us. Puts Jose just below us on sail away on 9/17.

How do you figure? I am really curious, not being snarky, as I am thinking it is looking worse for us. Puts Jose just below us on sail away on 9/17.

I was thinking looks worse for us also

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Well it appears to be going out to sea & not hitting anyone on the east coast, that in itself is most certainly better for all. Also they are saying Monday/Tuesday to be turning away from us so hopefully that means we can get out of NY. I'm still concerned, but feeling a bit better over all, time will tell :)

Note that Jose's forecast path has changed a LOT over the last 2 weeks. And it has an amazing long life.

It is forecast to still be hurricane strength and on a course heading NE between Bermunda and NYC from Sunday to Tuesday.

If it does that, there is a good chance Breakaway can slip south along the coast then east to Bermunda and maybe arrive a little late.

If the storm stalls or stays closer to Bermuda, at tropical storm strength or greater, you can't sail to Bermuda. Too much risk and NCL was criticized for sailing in rough weather so they are being conservative. I was on Breakaway for the cruise that did not make it to Bermuda last year and we heard a lot about the level of risk they can accept. We had to wait in port and depart Monday wait for the first storm to pass, then could not go to Bermuda because the second storm was Tropical Storm strength and within 200 miles of Bermuda. They considered a Canada/New England route but knew most passengers would be unprepared with warm clothing (we had an entire bag packed for this option!) and it turned out that in October there are so many ships in these ports there was no port that could take a ship our size in addition to those already there. So it was south to Port Canaveral and Nassau, both of which had been hit by the hurricanes and were unsatisfying ports. But we had a good 7 days on the ship!

The unfortunate part of the situation is that NCL did not communicate the situation. They kept saying we are sailing as planned, right until boarding. Many people boarded that ship thinking we were going to Bermuda. I knew otherwise. And after everyone was boarded, they announced the changes. About 100 people left the ship with no refund being given! We got a refund of the difference in port fees (just $25) and $200 OBC per cabin.

Good luck and watch the forecast carefully!

This morning I read three forecasts for Jose.

1 - Washington or NY

2 - Bahamas and Florida

3 - Bermuda

It is clear no one has a clue where Jose is going right now. Thsts anhuge difference in reports to say the least. I'm packing for Canada, Bermuda and god knows where else lol

This morning I read three forecasts for Jose.

 

 

 

1 - Washington or NY

 

2 - Bahamas and Florida

 

3 - Bermuda

 

 

 

It is clear no one has a clue where Jose is going right now. Thsts anhuge difference in reports to say the least. I'm packing for Canada, Bermuda and god knows where else lol

Go to Nhc.noaa.gov. Their model forecasts put the storm nowhere near, Washington, the Bahamas, or Florida. Could be a little dicey for Bermuda.

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This morning I read three forecasts for Jose.

 

1 - Washington or NY

2 - Bahamas and Florida

3 - Bermuda

 

It is clear no one has a clue where Jose is going right now. Thsts anhuge difference in reports to say the least. I'm packing for Canada, Bermuda and god knows where else lol

Me too, I figure if I prepare for Canada, we will sail to Bermuda!!! :)

My optimism on going to Bermuda is fading for sure...

Me too, I figure if I prepare for Canada, we will sail to Bermuda!!! :)

My optimism on going to Bermuda is fading for sure...

I'm thinking maybe we hug the shoreline and head to the Bahamas but who knows. If the meteorologists don't know we sure as heck don't know lol

Storm forecast with the path of its track become less accurate at 72 to 96 hours, 3 to 5 days - especially true for "Jose" - even the weather experts agreed that their different models are having lots of trouble with it - warm & cold fronts, jet streams have been playing tricks on everyone.

No matter what, the Atlantic waters look choppy, whether it's Bermuda bound or possibly going south ... based on oceanweather dot com's chart on waves. Sailing north, which is a possibility but I think all the ports big enough with deep channels are probably full over the next several weeks with foilage sailing by all the lines ... Unless, the BA can "bump" the Gem at the ports as she is doing NE/Canada on the next several sailings.

12' to 15' seas are moderate & light chops for the Breakaway - but, we had been on her cutting thru 15' seas and for safety reasons, outdoor decks were closed ... perfectly fine to sit on our almost Fwd balcony, barely felt motions at cruise speed.

Pack one's own motion sickness remedies, just in case if prone to it. Safe sailing ... will be tracking the ship & destination over the weekend (will be our turn to sail NCL a few weeks later).

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-jose

Projected path of Jose.

National Hurricane Center as of this morning. Again, it's early but this is the current prediction.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/204055.shtml?cone

National Hurricane Center as of this morning. Again, it's early but this is the current prediction.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/204055.shtml?cone

According to this I'm really thinking Bahamas sounds like it's gonna happen

I'm staying optimistic. The current trend seems to be Jose is weakening and the noaa forecast shows it to be at tropical storm strength 2AM Monday with the very outskirts touching Bermuda. I'm hoping we can sail south closer to shore then up to Bermuda for our Wednesday arrival. I'm home just 6 six days from a trip to Canada so I really don't wanna go back right now :loudcry:

My fingers are still crossed for Bermuda. Hoping there will be a way around this storm.

Personally I would prefer they cancel the cruise than go to Canada or the Bahamas, oddly enough, I had a bid on an upgrade that has been "pending" for weeks now. I went on the NCL website a few mins ago & the entire offer has disappeared... wonder what that means, if anything.....

Bonnie