Historical pricing info on cruises post-hurricane?

First, thoughts and prayers are with the islands hit by hurricanes this season (with more unfortunately still to likely come).

Is anyone willing to speculate, or better yet have some historical data, on pricing for itineraries that include islands recently hit by hurricanes? I'm coming up on final payment for a Silhouette itinerary that includes San Juan, St. Thomas, St. Maarten. Obviously operational considerations can result in a schedule change as needed, but I'm weighing whether it might be worth holding out until after final payment to see if prices drop further.

These islands need every tourist cent they can get, so I'd love to sail there if possible but if I can get a lower cruise fare in the process... I know my DW isn't keen on sailing these islands so soon after a hurricane and is pushing for a different itinerary. As such, I wonder if the Silhouette pricing in particular may drop if others share her view. In fact, I saw it already start to drop (prior to final payment) but not a major move (yet?).

Thanks in advance for thoughts and comments.

Think whether you are more interested in the destination being the cruise or the destination being the ports. If the cruise is the destination, it shouldn't matter where it goes. If the ports are your choice, you may be unhappy visiting ports that have been devastated by the storms. As much as I like the cruise experience, I enjoy visiting most ports. Exploring cruises away from the Caribbean. Not sure how easy it is to move a booking. It's time to comsult my TA.

Is it just me, I'm not seeing the correlation between the Thread Heading "Historical pricing info on cruises post-hurricane?" and the poll questions. Anyone else confused?

Is it just me, I'm not seeing the correlation between the Thread Heading "Historical pricing info on cruises post-hurricane?" and the poll questions. Anyone else confused?

Also confused, and not going to answer. Prayers to the islands.

Also confused, and not going to answer. Prayers to the islands.

Ditto! I am not going to answer.

What do you lose I your hold out until final payment?

Ditto! I am not going to answer.

Cracks me up! The people who answered with "..l'm not going to answer..". Excellent - posting to post.

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My final payment is already in. I don't see the prices dropping because of changed itineraries. I'm going no matter where we are going and don't care if it is to nowhere as I have learned after several of my first cruises that it is time for me to unwind and chill. I like seeing islands but if they offered cruises to nowhere I would book in a heartbeat.:D

What do you lose I your hold out until final payment?

If you've already made final payment you have to give up the penalty amount to cancel and rebook, so the price drop has to be pretty substantial to make it a savings after the penalty.

If you wait until after final payment to make the booking you don't really lose anything per se, but one might risk airfare being more expensive and fewer options as flights fill up/sell out.

The whole point of my post was two-fold. First, trying to see if anyone has some historical insights they could share. Two, get an informal guess-timate on what opinions were here around how the hurricanes might affect future travel plans. A major factor in pricing is supply and demand... and the poll speaks to forward guesses on pricing. If it bothers you to answer that much it's a good thing the poll is optional - thanks for bumping the post then. ;p

So far then it looks like nobody really has any input on what's happened in the past the season right after a hurricane hits some of the major ports?

We already have our Holiday cruise booked and payed, but I have noticed some pricing much lower than we have payed in the last 8 years or so. This may not be connected, but I do think there have been last minute cancellations before final payment and outside the penalty period for the Caribbean.

If you've already made final payment you have to give up the penalty amount to cancel and rebook, so the price drop has to be pretty substantial to make it a savings after the penalty.

 

If you wait until after final payment to make the booking you don't really lose anything per se, but one might risk airfare being more expensive and fewer options as flights fill up/sell out.

 

The whole point of my post was two-fold. First, trying to see if anyone has some historical insights they could share. Two, get an informal guess-timate on what opinions were here around how the hurricanes might affect future travel plans. A major factor in pricing is supply and demand... and the poll speaks to forward guesses on pricing. If it bothers you to answer that much it's a good thing the poll is optional - thanks for bumping the post then. ;p

 

So far then it looks like nobody really has any input on what's happened in the past the season right after a hurricane hits some of the major ports?

I can't choose an option in the poll, as my choice isn't there. We are past final payment, and fully anticipate itinerary changes. So we really don't have an option, as we most often book our air, and then the cruise. Air from Canada can be as pricey as the cruise (fare only).

I'm sad that we will likely miss St Maarten, and our overnight stop there. A top reason to book the cruise was that stop alone.

I do recall three past trips impacted by weather:

Puerto Vallarta - Hurricane. Land vacation that we weren't sure would happen. Our resort was open, but all were jammed to the rafters to accommodate guests from closed hotels. Beaches were a mess with debris coming on shore, very wet in the jungle. Still a good vacation. Never used that TA again (we were newbie travellers and weren't warned about hurricane season - lesson learned).

Carib. Cruise - Tropical Storm. Ugh...decks closed for a full day, with barf bags available every ten feet. The doors were chained from the inside and a staffer was at each doorway (just in case?) It was an ugly 24-36 hours, that I wish never to repeat. Tropical storms do happen even in December - lesson learned.

Carib Cruise - Hurricane. Visited Cozumel after the port and deck were devastated by a hurricane. We were there about three months later. There was still much clean up to occur. We went to a beach bar, and met the most amazing family (owners of the bar), they opened their photo album and talked about the experience. One was a photo of the whole extended family in front of their destroyed bar/restaurant/beach, all had big smiles because not one was hurt. Family matters, possessions don't - lesson learned.

So i've given you some experience, but advice? I would consider moving to another itinerary only if it had a significant savings. You might not get to ONE of those destinations after Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria and the followers (I hope not). You typically pay more (sometimes 25% or more) do do a Southern, Ultimate or Eastern cruise. While it is always in the contract to change the itinerary, it is sad to pay big bucks to go Western (which is often cheaper). Of course this pricing has been in our experience, and not just with Celebrity.

Let us know what you decide~

So i've given you some experience, but advice? I would consider moving to another itinerary only if it had a significant savings. You might not get to ONE of those destinations after Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria and the followers (I hope not). You typically pay more (sometimes 25% or more) do do a Southern, Ultimate or Eastern cruise. While it is always in the contract to change the itinerary, it is sad to pay big bucks to go Western (which is often cheaper). Of course this pricing has been in our experience, and not just with Celebrity.

 

Let us know what you decide~

Thanks for the info Payd! I'm debating on gambling on Silhouette prices falling versus a S. Carib ABC cruise w/Princess. I'm leaning towards making a deposit on the Princess sailing and then may switch back to Silhouette if the price is right. Like you, it's the airfare that's complicating my planning though. Enjoy your vacation!

Anywhere in the Caribbean is fine with me. I don't like the western cruises at all.

Anyone else confused?

The post starts with the IMO overused, empty, and meaningless "thoughts and prayers", then goes on to speculate and ask opinions on how to save a few bucks on their cruise.

A little self serving, at best, considering thousands have lost homes and livelihoods across the region.

We're sailing Nove 17, 10 day Ultimate Caribbean cruise. We made final payment in August before the horrible disasters on the islands. Our itinerary was perfect with 2 days planned in St. Maarten, which obviously isn't going to happen. We plan on going on our much needed vacation and are happy to go wherever Celebrity sends us. We always have to option of staying on board if we don't like the alternative ports.

As per your question, I just checked Celebrity's website. There is one cabin available in our category. Prices have not dropped. The islands you mentioned do no have basic services - electricity, clean water, shelter so I would not expect that they would be ready to welcome cruise ships for a long, long time. To be honest, if I were you, I'd switch to the southern Caribbean Itinerary, if I could.

Another way to look at this is that many many people (like me!) had an island trip planned and will now shift to a cruise due to all of the damaged islands. I suspect that cruise sales will be up--keep in mind that thousands of people visit St. Maarten/St. Martin every week to stay in hotels (not to mention St. Thomas, St. John, Tortola, Virgin Gorda, San Juan, Dominica etc!). All of those folks, should they still want a trip, will have cruises as one of the good options. We had a week planned in St. Martin in January; the hotel we were going to visit and the house we rented (both on the French side) are both really devastated, so they are closed, and both have cancelled on their own.

Some cruise lines are drastically dropping prices. I just got an e-mail from RCL. They have some very low prices on the Western Carribbean sailings.

It's an interesting question, and those on their driftwood crosses should come down off them and be realistic. This is a site about cruises and the effects of anything on cruising, so it's a perfectly acceptable topic. People still die of lung cancer every day but that doesn't mean we can't answer questions about the smoking policy.

To answer the question, I think it's still too soon to tell for most cruises. The ones who are sailing from now through the end of November will have financial penalties associated with cancelling, so most are still sailing to wherever they end up. It will be more telling as the final payment dates start happening for cruises in December and beyond. I know we are rethinking our February cruise because the people we travel with now want to go elsewhere rather than deal with the unknowns. We have until November to decide, but we've already started looking at alternative getaways with them.

The post starts with the IMO overused, empty, and meaningless "thoughts and prayers", then goes on to speculate and ask opinions on how to save a few bucks on their cruise.

 

A little self serving, at best, considering thousands have lost homes and livelihoods across the region.

You're entitled to your opinion, but at the end of the day I can promise you I'm not the only one mulling over the question. The Princess boards have a 7 page post and >14,000 views on a thread about "Anyone reschedualing [sic] or cancelling a Caribbean cruise this winter due to storm damage".

I also would point out that your cruise fare goes to Corporation and a cheaper fare might change the port fees and taxes that actually go to the islands, but a price drop will have no meaningful effect on how much $ gets passed from X/RCL to the islands. Me taking advantage of a discounted rate means another body in an area if the cruises are underselling, so me being willing to hop on a discount fare is a benefit to me and a financial benefit to the island, at the (minor) reduced profit to RCL (a company that had a net profit of 1.28 Billion for 2016). I don't own RCL stock, so you bet I'd rather save a few bucks than line their shareholders' pocketbooks.

Continued softness in the market over a period of time could result in fewer ships in the region and lower traffic overall (bad for the islands!), but unlikely that pricing during a few months after unusually damaging hurricanes will have a major impact on operational forecasts for ship positioning for multiple years out. And me buying a discounted fare is a middle ground on those forecasts, better a discounted rack rate than empty berths.

Tropical storms do happen even in December - lesson learned.

While it's certainly true that tropical storms can happen in December (there has been at least one tropical storm every calendar month of the year), you were quite unlucky with your cruise since there have only been 17 tropical storms in the past 150 Decembers!

While it's certainly true that tropical storms can happen in December (there has been at least one tropical storm every calendar month of the year)' date=' you were quite unlucky with your cruise since there have only been 17 tropical storms in the past 150 Decembers![/quote']

My goodness - what luck! That was the longest 24 to 30 hours of my life. I felt incredibly sick [emoji31]

 

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