How far out is best to book airfare to Alaska for an early August trip?

We are going on a one way southbound Alaskan cruise the beginning of August. I am wondering when the best time to book airfare is? We would be going from Detroit to Fairbanks then back from Vancouver to Detroit. I prefer Alaskan Airlines because we have their CC and miles to use. So, when has everyone gotten the best price for this type of trip? Thanks.

We are going on a one way southbound Alaskan cruise the beginning of August. I am wondering when the best time to book airfare is?

 

A year would be wonderful information. If 2017, already it's likely too late for the "best" prices. Also, there is no "season" when you can say "buy now because the prices are lowest". It's not like Christmas ornaments are cheapest shortly after December 25th or peeps next Monday.

 

 

We would be going from Detroit to Fairbanks then back from Vancouver to Detroit. I prefer Alaskan Airlines because we have their CC and miles to use. So, when has everyone gotten the best price for this type of trip? Thanks.

 

FWIW, when someone else has gotten a "best price" is irrelevant to your situation. AS has a few flights a day from DTW to SEA, where you would connect. Large amount of flights once you are in SEA. The advice: Start looking for pricing for your dates - utilize ITA Matrix for your searches. Get a feel for what the market is running. Then, when you see a price you like, take it.

 

Remember, while waiting for a "sale", prices for your preferred dates and flights also have the possibility (and likelihood) of increasing as you get closer to departure date. Just how much are you willing to risk in higher prices just to get a few bucks less on a "sale". Although AS releases seats 11 months out, I'd start my research in May for 2018, seeing the market rate. I wouldn't buy in the first 2-3 months, but would then be ready to pull the trigger anytime after. Of course, if you see a huge drop and it fits your plans, buy it.

 

Finally, I wonder about your comment "miles to use". On the one hand, you talk about prices. On the other, you talk about using miles. AS does not have a program for using "miles as cash" - and even if they did, you probably should not use it. (Most other plans, such as DL only give you a penny a mile, which is a lousy return).

Yes, it's this year- 2017. My husband and I both opened the AS credit card and were thus awarded 30K miles and a companion certificate ( $99 plus taxes). So, we would be using miles for one person and paying 1 full fare plus the companion certificate for the other 2. So, fare price isn't a huge deal because we are only technically paying for 1. I just didn't know if it was better to book now or wait and see if prices drop at all. AS does allow you to book airfare with your miles so I am not sure what you mean by miles to cash but we only opened the cards to get the bonus miles, companion certificate and free bags. I will most likely be cancelling it before the next annual fee is due.

Nobody is going to be able to tell if air fares are going to drop. I seriously doubt they would, as August is peak season for that area of the country. As mentioned you are already past the "best" fares...by a good distance.

 

Does your various items have any restrictions?- as in must be booked into certain fares (which may have sold out already)? Or does the companion fare work any time, as long as seats are available?

 

I don't know Alaska's policy on award seats. Are they limited, (and possibly already sold out), or are they available anytime a seat is available?

 

Lastly, are you flexible in travel dates, if one or more of these possible issues pop up on your desired travel days?

I wouldn't buy in the first 2-3 months

Is this specific to AS? I've got my eye on nonstops from Atlanta to Vancouver; they seem to run them only during Alaskan cruise season (how convenient!) This is what it looks like this year:

 

Atlanta (ATL) to Vancouver (YVR) — Fri, Jun 30

Delta 1805

Dep: 9:40 am

Arr: 12:04 pm

5h 24m

Boeing 737

Premium economy (W)

Vancouver (YVR) to Atlanta (ATL) — Sat, Jul 8

Delta 2450

Dep: 12:45 pm

Arr: 8:45 pm

5h 0m

Boeing 737

Premium economy (W)

 

So we'd be aiming for those flights next year, and preferably W class. I was thinking that my best chance for something close to the $656 fare that they offered this year would be to book on August 11. No?

We are taking X's southbound Alaska cruise in July/August, air purchased last December with fares now up at least 15% overall since we purchased, with a few dips here and there (very rarely).

 

This is not to say that there will not be a great sale before your departure, our fares are refundable, if they drop closer to departure easy to change without penalty...

 

Pay what you are most comfortable with or if you are willing to wait and see if they get better, yet seeing this is high season for Alaska, the odds may not be in your favour.

bon voyage

We are taking X's southbound Alaska cruise in July/August, air purchased last December with fares now up at least 15% overall since we purchased, with a few dips here and there (very rarely).

 

This is not to say that there will not be a great sale before your departure, our fares are refundable, if they drop closer to departure easy to change without penalty...

 

Pay what you are most comfortable with or if you are willing to wait and see if they get better, yet seeing this is high season for Alaska, the odds may not be in your favour.

bon voyage

 

Thank you. I just remember reading an article that said the best time to book flights is 3-4 months out in general but figured Alaska is a whole different ball game due to it mainly being a seasonal destination for vacationers. There are plenty of seats available on all the flights I have looked at and as someone else asked my award certificate and miles can be used for most if not all of these flights.

I was not looking for someone to tell me the perfect date and time to book. I was simply trying to get a feel for what has worked for other people.

Since they will be on separate reservations, pin down the mileage seat first. Alaska has a sliding scale for their mileage redemption seats, with the "cheapest" (in miles) going first. Also remember that the companion certificate only works on Alaska-operated flights, not partner flights or codeshares. Bear that in mind when booking the award seat to be sure you're not getting a flight operated by American, for example; the paid fare and companion people wouldn't be able to fly on it.

Thank you. I just remember reading an article that said the best time to book flights is 3-4 months out in general but figured Alaska is a whole different ball game due to it mainly being a seasonal destination for vacationers.

Those "best time" articles are a lot of statistical hooey (to be polite). It's like the story of the statistician who drowned while trying to walk across a river that was only an average depth of a foot. Every market is different, every time of the year is different. Supply and demand, especially demand is what determines your prices. When's the best time to buy plane tickets for a flight to Fairbanks in January -- any time!

 

There are plenty of seats available on all the flights I have looked at and as someone else asked my award certificate and miles can be used for most if not all of these flights.

Do not rely upon seat maps to tell you if the flight has "plenty of seats". That is an unreliable indicator. Also, just because there may be seats, they may not be in the lower priced buckets.

I was not looking for someone to tell me the perfect date and time to book. I was simply trying to get a feel for what has worked for other people.

Buy your tickets now.

Those "best time" articles are a lot of statistical hooey (to be polite). It's like the story of the statistician who drowned while trying to walk across a river that was only an average depth of a foot. Every market is different, every time of the year is different. Supply and demand, especially demand is what determines your prices. When's the best time to buy plane tickets for a flight to Fairbanks in January -- any time!

 

Do not rely upon seat maps to tell you if the flight has "plenty of seats". That is an unreliable indicator. Also, just because there may be seats, they may not be in the lower priced buckets.

Buy your tickets now.

 

Thank you for the information. We are flexible on days and departure cities to some extent. I will just nail something down next week. I didn't want to book before final payment of our cruise was due in case things changed.

Thank you for the information. We are flexible on days and departure cities to some extent. I will just nail something down next week. I didn't want to book before final payment of our cruise was due in case things changed.

Agree with this plan; prices probably won't do anything but go up. No need for Alaska to have a sale as that's a pretty busy travel time.

I just didn't know if it was better to book now or wait and see if prices drop at all.

 

Just keep in mind that if you wait to see if prices drop, you could easily find that prices rise instead.

 

Ask yourself: Am I willing and able to pay MORE than the current price if I wait and prices go up instead of down? If yes, feel free to gamble and wait for a price drop. If no, then ask: Am I willing and able to pay the current price? If yes, purchase now. If no, then you'll be waiting for a price drop, with plans to cancel your trip entirely if the price never drops.

Is this specific to AS?

The service from DTW via SEA is year round, as it's a connection through the Seattle hub. The DL non-stop is seasonal, and very much caters to the leisure market. DL also has regular service from ATL with connections. I'd be more inclined to not buy as soon as the schedule is released. But the advice from Waterbug is quite good. Are you willing to risk it going higher in exchange for waiting for it to drop?

 

The non-stop is nice, but I would not be that enamored by that offering. I pulled up a random date in August of this year and was getting one-way pricing of sub-$200 for connecting flights on WestJet, while the DL non-stop was around $350. Significant difference. Also, some of the WestJet connections start with a DL flight from ATL to Toronto. Longer trip, less money.

 

 

So, what's time and convenience worth to you? Only you can answer that.

But the advice from Waterbug is quite good. Are you willing to risk it going higher in exchange for waiting for it to drop?

I think it'll depend on how close the initial price is to what I see it was this year, but maybe I'll be more proactive than that just because I can see that here, two months before the flight, it is booked solid such that it doesn't even show a single seat available.

 

The non-stop is nice, but I would not be that enamored by that offering. ... Longer trip, less money. So, what's time and convenience worth to you? Only you can answer that.

Despite flying 200,000 miles a year for my entire (first) career (or perhaps because of it) if I can avoid 10 minutes in an airplane I will.

 

 

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I think it'll depend on how close the initial price is to what I see it was this year, but maybe I'll be more proactive than that just because I can see that here, two months before the flight, it is booked solid such that it doesn't even show a single seat available.

 

Just keep in mind that past prices don't necessarily correspond to future prices....there are way too many variables at stake. World events that affect economics could be different, supply and demand could be different, the competition could be doing something different, and so on and so on.

 

Also, if you're just looking at the seat map and what it shows available, understand that that map is often a very poor indicator of actual ticket availability. For starters, some airlines block nearly all but middle seats, and a perhaps a few window and aisle seats in the very back, from view of non-elite level frequent flyers. You could be seeing a lot of seats that appear full but show as available to someone else with higher status.

Just keep in mind that past prices don't necessarily correspond to future prices....there are way too many variables at stake. World events that affect economics could be different, supply and demand could be different, the competition could be doing something different, and so on and so on.

I've got to work from something, since I don't know when the fare for this itinerary might have been less expensive. With regard to changing environmental factors, my understanding is that more cruise ships are going to Alaska this year (2017) so presumably, if airlines didn't adjust to that in 2017 (when this reasonable fare was offered) they'd have had the opportunity to do so in 2018. Again, no way to "know" anything, but all we can do is gather the bits and pieces of information available and synthesize an approach to booking for ourselves based on the best insights into how to interpret these information. Which is kind of why I'm here (not for the questions - I know those :) - but rather for insights into the answers).

 

Also, if you're just looking at the seat map and what it shows available, understand that that map is often a very poor indicator of actual ticket availability.

I'm trying to book the flight. It doesn't come up at all, not even for first class seats. It seems booked and over-booked as much as they're willing to over-book. It originally caught me off-guard that there were no nonstops, and so I grudgingly set the budget based on assumptions that included connections, including a red-eye home.

Well the whole science behind airline YM systems (aside from the dark arts practiced by the Hogwarts graduates in the YM departments) has to do with price elasticity of demand. How high will the price go before people stop buying, or how low will it go before more people choose to fly?

 

It's also important to note that while cruise traffic is certainly important in the Seattle/Vancouver and Anchorage markets, it's far from a dominant or a determining factor on airline route and capacity planning. Seattle, for example, is going through an unprecedented economic expansion at present, and trust me, five or ten thousand more year-round, highly-paid Amazon employees makes a LOT bigger difference to the airlines than another cruise ship calling for four months in the summer.

I'm trying to book the flight. It doesn't come up at all, not even for first class seats. It seems booked and over-booked as much as they're willing to over-book. It originally caught me off-guard that there were no nonstops, and so I grudgingly set the budget based on assumptions that included connections, including a red-eye home.

 

The June 30 DL 1805 nonstop ATL to YVR is still for sale. The availability according to Expert Flyer is

F0 P0 A0 G0 W0 Y9 B9 M0 H0 Q0 K0 L0 U0 T0 X0 V0 E0 which means they are willing to sell at least 9 coach seats. First and comfort are zeroed out. However, the price today for one coach seat is a ridiculous $1177. This is an unusual pattern. Typically coach is sold out (or oversold) initially with space in comfort and first to upgrade the medallions. My guess is that the leisure market did snap up first and comfort early. How early? No idea. But if I wanted this flight for next year, I'd be buying at least seven months out.

It's also important to note that while cruise traffic is certainly important in the Seattle/Vancouver and Anchorage markets, it's far from a dominant or a determining factor on airline route and capacity planning. Seattle, for example, is going through an unprecedented economic expansion at present, and trust me, five or ten thousand more year-round, highly-paid Amazon employees makes a LOT bigger difference to the airlines than another cruise ship calling for four months in the summer.

And, when airport check-in space is at a premium, DL still finds room for a dedicated area for Microsoft employees. Lots of route and capacity expansion, matched with increased demand.

 

The other thing to remember. Not only is that flight seasonal, but only operates on Thursday Friday and Saturday. When it comes off the seasonal schedule, who knows if it will return, when the flight times will be, days of operation and more. I am all for being prepared, but this may be very different or very similar in 2018. Only when the schedule is released will we know.

I can see that here, two months before the flight, it is booked solid such

 

I'm trying to book the flight. It doesn't come up at all, not even for first class seats. It seems booked and over-booked as much as they're willing to over-book.

 

I went to DL.com and pulled up the exact flights you listed on the exact dates you listed. I see PLENTY of available seats on both, including pairs of available seats side by side. None in Comfort+ on the way up, but plenty in the back, and even more on the return flight, including 1 Comfort+ seat and several completely empty exit rows, which in my opinion, frequently offer even more legroom than Comfort+.

I went to DL.com and pulled up the exact flights you listed on the exact dates you listed. I see PLENTY of available seats on both, including pairs of available seats side by side. None in Comfort+ on the way up, but plenty in the back, and even more on the return flight, including 1 Comfort+ seat and several completely empty exit rows, which in my opinion, frequently offer even more legroom than Comfort+.

Ah okay... apparently selecting Comfort+ blanked out that itinerary from my view entirely instead of showing it as only partially available. Thanks!

 

It effectively still tells me the same story. While past isn't prologue, apparently Comfort+ was popular on THAT flight THIS year.