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Safe to wait until 6 weeks before departure date for lower price?


Runner193
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Hi all--My husband, sis, brother-in-law and niece are about to take our first cruise: 4-night from LA/Long Beach to Ensenada in August. I've read that prices drop about 6 weeks prior to the departure date. I'm wondering if this is true, and if it is, is it safe to wait until mid-June to book our cabins? Or do we risk them running out of available cabins? We are totally flexible as to cruise line--it's our first time and we're just excited! Thanks for any feedback or tips.

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Fares might drop after final payment, but no guarantee, as the ship could sell out. Of course, if there are cabins left at that time, you may not have a real choice of level, location or type of room.

 

I think Carnival is the only one sailing that area in that time frame.

 

Last minute airfares can eat up savings in last minute cruise fares.

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CruiserBruice is correct. There seems to be this notion that cruise prices drop at some point after final payment is due - which depending on cruise line is typically around 75 - 90 days before sailing. This is not necessarily the case as they may drop, likely will remain the same, or may increase. It is all based on supply and demand with a given ship and itinerary. As indicated, what you risk is a limited selection of staterooms, payment due immediately upon booking, and if flying, airfares and flights that could also create some difficulty.

 

We typically book anywhere from 6 months to a year in advance, select the stateroom we want, then watch for price drops prior to final payment. Most cruise lines will provide that your booked price will not increase should the price go up while allowing you to capture any decrease prior to final payment. After that, you are locked in. But many of the cruise lines are no longer dropping prices after final payment, so that risk is pretty low.

 

Its up to you but I see little advantage in waiting until after final payment to book hoping to capture a late price drop. And if you do wait, there is no magic time frame - such as 6 weeks as you indicated - for this to happen. It can be anytime or not at all.

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CruiserBruice is correct. There seems to be this notion that cruise prices drop at some point after final payment is due - which depending on cruise line is typically around 75 - 90 days before sailing. This is not necessarily the case as they may drop, likely will remain the same, or may increase. It is all based on supply and demand with a given ship and itinerary. As indicated, what you risk is a limited selection of staterooms, payment due immediately upon booking, and if flying, airfares and flights that could also create some difficulty.

 

We typically book anywhere from 6 months to a year in advance, select the stateroom we want, then watch for price drops prior to final payment. Most cruise lines will provide that your booked price will not increase should the price go up while allowing you to capture any decrease prior to final payment. After that, you are locked in. But many of the cruise lines are no longer dropping prices after final payment, so that risk is pretty low.

 

Its up to you but I see little advantage in waiting until after final payment to book hoping to capture a late price drop. And if you do wait, there is no magic time frame - such as 6 weeks as you indicated - for this to happen. It can be anytime or not at all.

 

Since the OP is likely to sail Carnival given that itinerary, I would book now under Early Saver (available up to 3 mo prior to sailing for short cruises). All price drops up to 2 business days prior to sailing will be eligible for on board credit. This in essence allows you to pick your ideal cabin early, but still get the best price. This on board credit can be used for anything on board, including tips. We booked March 22 for an August 25th cruise and already have $80 in OBC (I paid in full because Amex had a deal of spend $500 get $100 back- both my DH and I have Amex's so we took advantage of that even though the payment date isn't until June 26th. Since we already PIF we get OBC instead of a price adjustment). It's not much, but it'll put a huge dent in the gratuities. I do a dummy booking 2 times a day and I call for every drop I see. Some won't call if it's only a few dollars, but I call for everything because it adds up. They use an algorithm to determine the fare so it can change whenever, including several times a day. My lowest drop was $10, and I've called three times since I've booked. I've even called for my 3 & 4 passenger fares lowering while the 1 & 2 fares stayed the same. Every little bit counts!

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Since the OP is likely to sail Carnival given that itinerary, I would book now under Early Saver (available up to 3 mo prior to sailing for short cruises). All price drops up to 2 business days prior to sailing will be eligible for on board credit. This in essence allows you to pick your ideal cabin early, but still get the best price.

The OP was asking about lower fares being typical in a window of approximately 6 weeks prior to sailing, which is after final payment. The key being that there is no assurance of a price drop at any time after final payment. This supports the program you describe, which may be of benefit to them in terms of the pricing guarantee resulting in an OBC for the difference if prices drop lower after final payment than that when originally booked.

 

Doesn't the Early Saver program have the restriction of an non-refundable deposit for cancellations made prior to final payment? If so, that would need to be kept in mind unless the OP is certain that they will not change itineraries or dates once booked.

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The OP was asking about lower fares being typical in a window of approximately 6 weeks prior to sailing, which is after final payment. The key being that there is no assurance of a price drop at any time after final payment. This supports the program you describe, which may be of benefit to them in terms of the pricing guarantee resulting in an OBC for the difference if prices drop lower after final payment than that when originally booked.

 

Doesn't the Early Saver program have the restriction of an non-refundable deposit for cancellations made prior to final payment? If so, that would need to be kept in mind unless the OP is certain that they will not change itineraries or dates once booked.

 

I recommended Early Saver as it would open up that "6 week" window discount the OP was concerned about. With Early Saver you forfeit your deposit if you cancel and certain changes incur a fee (i.e.: name change). If they are certain of a sailing date and the passengers then it would certainly be a good option for them. Carnival isn't very good about returning deposits close to the cruise regardless of what type of fare they book, and final payment on an August cruise should be sometime in June so they don't have much time to avoid losing the deposit regardless of which fare they choose. From Carnival's website, refunds for cancellations:

 

"From the final payment date to 56 days prior to sailing (or 46 days prior to sailing for cruises 5 days or less, but excluding cruises that visit Cuba), the penalty is the deposit amount.

  • From 55 days prior to sailing to 30 days prior to sailing (or 45 to 30 days prior to sailing on cruises 5 days or less, but excluding cruises that visit Cuba), the penalty is 50% of the total fare or the deposit amount, whichever is greater.
  • From 29 to15 days prior to sailing, the penalty is 75% of the total fare or the deposit amount, whichever is greater.
  • From 14 days prior to sailing to the day of your cruise, the penalty is 100%* of the total fare.
  • No refunds will be made if you do not show up for your cruise or if you interrupt or cancel your vacation once it has begun."

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I recommended Early Saver as it would open up that "6 week" window discount the OP was concerned about. With Early Saver you forfeit your deposit if you cancel and certain changes incur a fee (i.e.: name change). If they are certain of a sailing date and the passengers then it would certainly be a good option for them. Carnival isn't very good about returning deposits close to the cruise regardless of what type of fare they book, and final payment on an August cruise should be sometime in June so they don't have much time to avoid losing the deposit regardless of which fare they choose.

 

 

Agree as stated with your suggestion to the OP. But thanks for the clarification on the pre final payment cancellation policy regarding the deposit - as well as regards the fees policy. Most cruise lines do not hold your deposit with bookings canceled prior to final payment nor asses fees for changes. There are TA's, however, that do that, and IMO they should be avoided as such.

 

I would personally avoid any program that did that prior to final payment as we frequently make changes to itineraries, stateroom selections, traveling passengers, and outright cancellations - and have never lost a deposit or been charged a fee for doing so. But that just works for me. :)

 

And as I'm sure you're aware, as to the post final payment penalties you cited, most cruise lines have similar policies in place.

Edited by leaveitallbehind
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It depends on how badly they want to take this cruise. If they are flexible and ok with the possibility of prices going up or their desired room type selling out; they can wait. There's a poster on the celebrity forum right now that is looking to cruise in June and while they were researching; the balcony cabins for 4 sold out for their cruise. Summer is prime time for cruising so I wouldn't count on prices dropping.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

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Fares might drop after final payment, but no guarantee, as the ship could sell out. Of course, if there are cabins left at that time, you may not have a real choice of level, location or type of room.

 

I think Carnival is the only one sailing that area in that time frame.

 

Last minute airfares can eat up savings in last minute cruise fares.

 

 

Plus 1.

....especially the point about location. For a short cruise on a discount line like Carnival, is saving a few bucks really worth a noisy leftover cabin?

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

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We like booking far in advance because we usually like to have our cabins close together to be able to have our balcony dividers open to have a large balcony to sit and enjoy late evenings. We also have our preferred location for the cabins. That's just us.

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  • 1 month later...
Since the OP is likely to sail Carnival given that itinerary, I would book now under Early Saver (available up to 3 mo prior to sailing for short cruises). All price drops up to 2 business days prior to sailing will be eligible for on board credit. This in essence allows you to pick your ideal cabin early, but still get the best price. This on board credit can be used for anything on board, including tips. We booked March 22 for an August 25th cruise and already have $80 in OBC (I paid in full because Amex had a deal of spend $500 get $100 back- both my DH and I have Amex's so we took advantage of that even though the payment date isn't until June 26th. Since we already PIF we get OBC instead of a price adjustment). It's not much, but it'll put a huge dent in the gratuities. I do a dummy booking 2 times a day and I call for every drop I see. Some won't call if it's only a few dollars, but I call for everything because it adds up. They use an algorithm to determine the fare so it can change whenever, including several times a day. My lowest drop was $10, and I've called three times since I've booked. I've even called for my 3 & 4 passenger fares lowering while the 1 & 2 fares stayed the same. Every little bit counts!

 

Wait, that's a real thing? That's awesome. :o:eek:

 

countdown.pl?image=Beach-8&name=petstylist94&date=8-14-2017&text=First time cruisers!&ship=Carnival Paradise

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What would be usually better to do to get the best price - book much earlier or the last minute?

 

Typically - but not always - the lowest prices are offered early when the itineraries are first released. But there really is no pattern or predictability with pricing changes and they can remain the same, go down, or go up based on supply and demand with the market for any given itinerary and sailing date. Many of the cruise lines - RCI as example - rarely discount pricing last minute anymore. All you can do is watch the pricing once you book and if you see it go down prior to final payment, (unless you have a specific restricted fare) contact the cruise line or your TA and they can adjust the pricing for you to take advantage of the lower price.

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What would be usually better to do to get the best price - book much earlier or the last minute?

 

There is no way to answer your question, as each cruise sells differently. Some literally sell out months or more than a year in advance (some long and world cruises). Some almost never sell out.

 

So your question is impossible to answer.

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prices fluctuate far too often to give a 100% accurate answer. it is far better to give yourself a total budget you can live with( including taxes , fees, any extra like a drink package, gratuities) and when you find something, book it.

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There is no such thing as a sure thing.

 

If you want to cruise, shop around - and if you find an itinerary you like at a price you like - then book it, and monitor prices to see if you can take advantage of a price drop, IF one occurs.

 

If you only want to cruise at a last minute low price, then wait - and see if prices actually go down -- but be prepared to not cruise.

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