history of prices

Hi All,

New here, first post, but not new to cruising. Well past Elite status on Princess.

Last year 2015 we took Princess voyage 3549, 28 days, South Pacific. I would like to see the Princess pricing history for that old cruise. Because thinking of doing it again 2016 and am waiting for balcony prices to come down like they did last year in Aug of 2015. That is, went from original list of $6,700(?) to $4,300, base fare (B2 category). So what was the cabin price timing, week by week, for that cruise? Jan 2015 to Oct?

I tried the "fish" site and it has current, this year history, but could not see how to access last year (2015 Jan to cruise time in Oct) history. Does the fish have such? Any other site offer such? Looked here and found none.

FWIW, a couple years ago I had an sales meeting with a Princess agent. I asked her how Princess figures/determines cabin pricing week-by-week. She said that Princess has a large department of mathematicians/actuaries. Makes perfect business sense for them to maximize profit. But makes it hard for me to know when to book!!

regards tom

Hi All,

New here, first post, but not new to cruising. Well past Elite status on Princess.

 

Last year 2015 we took Princess voyage 3549, 28 days, South Pacific. I would like to see the Princess pricing history for that old cruise. Because thinking of doing it again 2016 and am waiting for balcony prices to come down like they did last year in Aug of 2015. That is, went from original list of $6,700(?) to $4,300, base fare (B2 category). So what was the cabin price timing, week by week, for that cruise? Jan 2015 to Oct?

 

I tried the "fish" site and it has current, this year history, but could not see how to access last year (2015 Jan to cruise time in Oct) history. Does the fish have such? Any other site offer such? Looked here and found none.

 

FWIW, a couple years ago I had an sales meeting with a Princess agent. I asked her how Princess figures/determines cabin pricing week-by-week. She said that Princess has a large department of mathematicians/actuaries. Makes perfect business sense for them to maximize profit. But makes it hard for me to know when to book!!

 

regards tom

If Princess is using one or more proprietary algorithms, what they derive from past performance (and use to set/change pricing) may be very different from what you figure out. IMO, a wasted exercise.

Supply and demand.

I'm booked for 2 cruises that are both in high demand, but for different reasons.

One is an unusual itinerary and is during Spring Break time. I booked 15 months in advance and by a month later all full suites and minisuites were gone! Price on my cabin (minisuite) has also risen by $300pp. Because of this high demand, there are only 100 cabins left with 10 months to go until we cruise. No hope for a price drop. ;)

The other cruise has a highlight of spending 2 days in Edinburgh, Scotland and attending the Edinburgh Military Tattoo. I booked that one 20 months in advance and it has done the same thing - cabins nearly gone and prices have increased alot. Again, no hope for a price drop.

I'm sure Princess knows which cruises are most popular and will book quickly or at the highest price. If it slows down, you might get a price drop. I've had many of them, but usually on cruises that are not in high demand.

If Princess is using one or more proprietary algorithms, what they derive from past performance (and use to set/change pricing) may be very different from what you figure out. IMO, a wasted exercise.

Totally agree, a waste of energy.

Waste of time? Then fish showing history (current year) is waste of time? Could very well be. Maybe like predicting whether a coin flip will be heads or tails. No matter if the previous 8 flips were heads, the chance of the next flip being a tail is still 50/50.

Sorry, but the mathematician/engineer in me likes to study such things :). And sometimes history is instructive.

regards tom

Waste of time? Then fish showing history (current year) is waste of time? Could very well be. Maybe like predicting whether a coin flip will be heads or tails. No matter if the previous 8 flips were heads, the chance of the next flip being a tail is still 50/50.

 

Sorry, but the mathematician/engineer in me likes to study such things :). And sometimes history is instructive.

regards tom

Yep fish showing history is also a waste of time if you are trying to predict prices this time.

And I think your Baysian Theory might need some work.

History is instructive.

Generally...

The more unusual the cruise, bucket list, high season or some sort of one time only event will be more in demand. More pax book, more TAs put together groups. Sometimes prices lower when TAs have to relinquish cabins and just before final payment. More supply.

The more common an itin, low season cruises are lower in demand.

Cruise fares are, overall, are more expensive this year than last.

Remember...liars can figure and figures can lie.

Sent from my iPhone using Forums mobile app

Waste of time? Then fish showing history (current year) is waste of time? Could very well be. Maybe like predicting whether a coin flip will be heads or tails. No matter if the previous 8 flips were heads, the chance of the next flip being a tail is still 50/50.

 

Sorry, but the mathematician/engineer in me likes to study such things :). And sometimes history is instructive.

regards tom

No more a waste of time than the Daily Horse Racing Sheet for your regional race track. It may explain the basis for the betting odds. But the outcome is still never a sure prediction. Nonetheless, folks do buy them.

And with a cruise, waiting for a possible price drop needs to recognize that, the longer you wait, the probable airfare will be significantly higher while preferred cabin choices may be long gone.

Moreover, there are just too many variables beyond what Princess (or any other cruise line) can control for an individual to make an accurate prediction. IMO, your time would he better spent finding the top five TAs producing Princess bookings and connect with the one who has the largest Princess funded incentive pool of resources and/or commission rate to distribute/share to/with customers and/or can get you some kind of OBC or other value when the price drops -even after final payment..

Think about it. If it were that easy to predict the fluctuation of cruise prices by the history don't you think people would be lined up around the block to get this information?

I wish you luck. If you are correct in your prediction then I think you have stumbled upon a new career.

There are just too many variables.

Any "scientific" approach to predicting cruise fares should at least consider the fact that the lines themselves spend considerable effort (and money) doing just that. The lines are likely to do a better job than the casual amateur -- who may luck out by stumbling upon a rare situation not contemplated by the experts - but the true scientific approach would be to book the space you want, on the ship you want, sailing the itinerary you want, at the price you think fair, at the time you have the funds (or the reasonable expectation that you will have the funds by final payment date).

hi there

There are certain generalizations that you can normally make. Such as prices are normally higher when school is out. Even this ordinary statement is dependent on itinerary and cruise line.

It is true if you are looking at Caribbean cruises with the main mass market cruise lines. You can also say for these same cruises after Labor Day and before Christmas you will find lower prices than after the new year just because a lot of North Americans want to get away from winter and some are afraid of cruising during the tail end of hurricane season .

So I am sure after close examination you will find that prices are driven by demand, not just for cruises but for most purchases. If you are willing to travel somewhere when nobody else would consider it, you could expect to pay less. Of course if you are just looking for the best value for a specific time of year all you can do is make a total cost comparison for each of the cruise lines that are traveling to the region you are looking at (unfortunately all cruise lines will not have their "best sales" at the same time) and if you have a large time frame you also need to take into consideration the price of flights and hotels (if required) for each possible week.

My feeling is that you have to be willing to always go with something you want if the price is right for you. If you can get a rate that will allow for a full refund of any deposits (before a certain date) it gives you some flexibility. If you can also get a rate that would compensate you if prices were to fall that would be good as well.

Studying past history may tell you something but if I tell you that the second week in Dec. will be the cheapest that year for a particular itinerary, it would be of no use if you don't want to travel then.

Good luck

have a great cruise

It's your time to spend as you see fit, but even if you did have historical pricing data it isn't relevant going forward. Nobody can know what world events will be driving booking demand six months or a year from now. A great example of this was the emergence of the Zika virus in South America and passengers wanting to avoid those itineraries.

It's like the advertisements for investments which give the disclaimer, "past performance is no guarantee of future returns..." Just because a sailing was heavily discounted last year doesn't mean it will happen again this year.

Book at a price that is agreeable to you. Otherwise you can watch the ship sell out as you wait for a deal that never happens.