What is Going on with Pricing?

I booked an OV on a 7 night Eurodam late August for $699pp. This was before Explore 4 started and before the new smoking policy was announced. I think they knew it was coming though. Usually we booked verandahs and they are usually $100pp more than the OV. This time they were $1199--almost twice the OV price.

I have been watching, hoping to upgrade.

When the Amex offer came out a week or so ago, I looked at cancelling my booking and rebooking for $849 with the Explore 4 in an OV. That was the price on HAL.com and that big box store we all love.

In the last couple days the price on HAL shot up to a little over $3000 pp but today is back down to $1249pp. The big box site has it at $899pp but an extra $788 to add Explore 4, which is close to HAL's price when added. WOW!!!!!

Has anyone else noticed this in the last few days? What is going on??????

I understand the jump in price when the Explore 4 was added - it includes the Beverage Package, which is very expensive.

The drop in price later, must just be the usual drop that occurs after a certain time, when a cruise has lots of empty rooms.

I think pricing jumps one way or another depend on how well a cruise is selling. Each cruise seems to have it's own jumps - its not fleet wide.

I don't think the change in smoking rules has much to do with it.

I understand the jump in price when the Explore 4 was added - it includes the Beverage Package, which is very expensive.

The drop in price later, must just be the usual drop that occurs after a certain time, when a cruise has lots of empty rooms.

I think pricing jumps one way or another depend on how well a cruise is selling. Each cruise seems to have it's own jumps - its not fleet wide.

I don't think the change in smoking rules has much to do with it.

I agree that each cruise has a life of its own for pricing. I think HAL will watch booking trends now that they've changed the balcony smoking policy. If this does translate to more people booking balconies, I think starting prices for balconies may go up compared to insides and OVs.

Mine has stayed exactly the same price since it was booked in April. Sometimes it says sold out; other days it is available. But promotions added, changed, time passing....it hasn't changed one penny in price. I kept thinking it would drop.

While this thread is specific to NCL, it's a very good explanation of the principles behind pricing:

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2115592

BTW, FWIW, Just got a 14% price reduction on an SB suite next March out of Tampa.

We agree with the OP's thinking. We have been on HAL cruises when not a single passenger had the drink package because everyone must have concluded it was overpriced. Most HAL cruisers are not heavy drinkers...and getting $50 value (per day) is difficult. Based on our own cruise history (and bar bill) we value the HAL Package at about $30 per passenger day (this will vary for each person depending on their drink habits). If HAL increases the price of the cruise by $50 per passenger day with the Explore 4 deal...we have little interest since we can do better by grabbing the lowest discounted price (which we can get from several cruise agencies) and simply buy what we want on the ship.

When HAL first started their Explore 4 promos we thought they were outrageously priced. But lately they seem to be learning and the prices are sometimes pretty reasonable. When friends have sought our advice (because we cruise a lot) we tell them to put their own value on any package and pay little attention to what the cruise line says about the value.

Hank

While this thread is specific to NCL, it's a very good explanation of the principles behind pricing:

 

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2115592

 

BTW, FWIW, Just got a 14% price reduction on an SB suite next March out of Tampa.

Thanks for the link - an interesting thread. It doesn't explain why our cabin price is nearly $4,000 more per person than when we booked. (Explore4 only added a bit over $1500 to the price).

But, a lot of it makes a whole lot of sense. Very helpful.

We agree with the OP's thinking. We have been on HAL cruises when not a single passenger had the drink package because everyone must have concluded it was overpriced. Most HAL cruisers are not heavy drinkers...and getting $50 value (per day) is difficult. Based on our own cruise history (and bar bill) we value the HAL Package at about $30 per passenger day (this will vary for each person depending on their drink habits). If HAL increases the price of the cruise by $50 per passenger day with the Explore 4 deal...we have little interest since we can do better by grabbing the lowest discounted price (which we can get from several cruise agencies) and simply buy what we want on the ship.

 

When HAL first started their Explore 4 promos we thought they were outrageously priced. But lately they seem to be learning and the prices are sometimes pretty reasonable. When friends have sought our advice (because we cruise a lot) we tell them to put their own value on any package and pay little attention to what the cruise line says about the value.

 

Hank

Good advice. I always get a cruise fare with and without the current promotion. On the cruise I just booked the "cost" of the drink package came out to be $35 per day per person, so at that price it was a toss up to me, but I ended up taking it for the convenience aspect.

While this thread is specific to NCL, it's a very good explanation of the principles behind pricing:

 

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2115592

 

BTW, FWIW, Just got a 14% price reduction on an SB suite next March out of Tampa.

I enjoyed this discussion of pricing. A less detailed answer to why there are price changes is: "The price depends on how well it is selling."

I was especially interested in the part that discusses the price difference between balcony rooms and mini-suites (HAL calls them Signature Suites).

I always thought the price difference between balcony state rooms and mini-suites was more than it should be. This explains why.

While this thread is specific to NCL, it's a very good explanation of the principles behind pricing:

 

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2115592

 

BTW, FWIW, Just got a 14% price reduction on an SB suite next March out of Tampa.

Thought this was terrific info which coincides with much of what we have learned (and been told) over the years. But we do think that HAL is somewhat of an exception when it comes to their new promotions which include drink packages. When Celebrity first started their drink packages there was a pretty long learning curve while the cruise line (and customers) learned how best to deal with the promos (sometimes good deals and often part con). HAL had similar growing pains when they rolled out drink packages. For example, at one point we had paid about $20,000 (total) for an approximate 30 day HAL cruise that included their drink package. Eventually we were able to rebook the same cabin for about $14,000 without the drink package. Our cruise agent got a big laugh when I explained that we just would not be able to run up a $6000 bar bill in a month (about $200 a day)!

Recently it does appear that HAL is learning how to work with their own promos and now, the decision making can be a bit more difficult.

Our advice remains constant in that passengers should not get caught up in the hype of promotions. You need to price out each part of the promotion given each element a value based on your own experience. That is why we say that even though HAL will tell you that the Signature Package is worth about $50 per passenger day.....it is really worth somewhat less to most passengers...and a lot less to HAL passengers who are not big drinkers.

When it comes to deposits HAL also uses that as a promo. Half price deposits sound good...but consider that many of the best prices exclude the half price deposits. If saving hundreds or thousands of dollars means forking over a much larger initial deposit....it really makes sense to pay that high deposit given the current time value of money.

Hank

If saving hundreds or thousands of dollars means forking over a much larger initial deposit....it really makes sense to pay that high deposit given the current time value of money.

 

Hank

Totally agree. We had initially booked the Explore4 package. Based on posts that I read here, I had my T.A. price our cruise without it. Our large deposit became non-refundable based on a "limited availability" special. But we were quite close to final payment date anyway.

So I had her change the booking. Saved my husband & I $1160 for our 12 night cruise. :eek:

Thought this was terrific info which coincides with much of what we have learned (and been told) over the years. But we do think that HAL is somewhat of an exception when it comes to their new promotions which include drink packages. When Celebrity first started their drink packages there was a pretty long learning curve while the cruise line (and customers) learned how best to deal with the promos (sometimes good deals and often part con). HAL had similar growing pains when they rolled out drink packages. For example, at one point we had paid about $20,000 (total) for an approximate 30 day HAL cruise that included their drink package. Eventually we were able to rebook the same cabin for about $14,000 without the drink package. Our cruise agent got a big laugh when I explained that we just would not be able to run up a $6000 bar bill in a month (about $200 a day)!

 

Recently it does appear that HAL is learning how to work with their own promos and now, the decision making can be a bit more difficult.

 

Our advice remains constant in that passengers should not get caught up in the hype of promotions. You need to price out each part of the promotion given each element a value based on your own experience. That is why we say that even though HAL will tell you that the Signature Package is worth about $50 per passenger day.....it is really worth somewhat less to most passengers...and a lot less to HAL passengers who are not big drinkers.

When it comes to deposits HAL also uses that as a promo. Half price deposits sound good...but consider that many of the best prices exclude the half price deposits. If saving hundreds or thousands of dollars means forking over a much larger initial deposit....it really makes sense to pay that high deposit given the current time value of money.

 

Hank

Promos are just another variable for consideration bit the principles are still the same. One of the nice things about HAL is the ability to price cruises with and without the promos.

HAL is very misleading when it says the beverage package is "worth" because they are confusing price or "worth" with value. It's true value is how much it would save you on the cruise.

As I stated, we did book a cruise with $xplore4 option. I looked at it like this: the promo included $200 OBC, PG dinner $70, and gratuities for seven days ~$190 plus $200 internet credit and the beverage package. To me, the internet credit is almost worthless (I will see once aboard if they will trade it out for OBC. I would take any amount even $50). Not counting the internet and the beverage, the promo adds to $460. The fare is $800 more with the promo. I concluded that the break even point for the beverage package was the difference, ie, $340. I have kept track of our beverage spending for past cruises and it has usually been around that $340 point. I decided the package was worth it.

Pricing. I just don't understand the law of supply and demand.

My 42-day Atlantic Adventurer leaves Ft. Lauderdale on Friday. It still shows open categories all the way across.

My OV is in a good place. I booked HH guarantee and got up to EE. Fine with me great spot. I got an offer from HAL yesterday to move up to Verandah for $1450/person. Yet, the ship is not full. I wanted to counter-offer by less than half (ya know, just like buying a house), but my TA laughed at me.

I'll stay where I am and hope the 4/5 full ship will mean better service all over the place.

Jim

We were booked on Koningsdam for January 8 without Explore4. Last week, we saw the same cruise on a popular travel website on January 29 for $400/pp less without Explore4. We called HAL and they indeed had that same price. To save $800, we moved to the January 29.

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Pricing. I just don't understand the law of supply and demand.

 

My 42-day Atlantic Adventurer leaves Ft. Lauderdale on Friday. It still shows open categories all the way across.

 

My OV is in a good place. I booked HH guarantee and got up to EE. Fine with me great spot. I got an offer from HAL yesterday to move up to Verandah for $1450/person. Yet, the ship is not full. I wanted to counter-offer by less than half (ya know, just like buying a house), but my TA laughed at me.

 

I'll stay where I am and hope the 4/5 full ship will mean better service all over the place.

 

Jim

How do you know the ship isn't nearly full out of curiosity? did you TA confirm that for you?

There could be a lot of people booking guarantees which don't reflect when you look at cabin availability.

If your TA is laughing then you know the counter is too low ;)

Pricing. I just don't understand the law of supply and demand.

 

My 42-day Atlantic Adventurer leaves Ft. Lauderdale on Friday. It still shows open categories all the way across.

 

My OV is in a good place. I booked HH guarantee and got up to EE. Fine with me great spot. I got an offer from HAL yesterday to move up to Verandah for $1450/person. Yet, the ship is not full. I wanted to counter-offer by less than half (ya know, just like buying a house), but my TA laughed at me.

 

I'll stay where I am and hope the 4/5 full ship will mean better service all over the place.

 

Jim

A few years ago we were booked on the Prinsendam's Grand Med Cruise (about 60 days) where we had an outside cabin. 3 weeks before the cruise HAL offered us an upsell to a large suite for $9,999. Our fare that we had paid was less then $20,000....so this was a large upsell. DW and I laughed and told our cruise agent to counter with $5000. HAL did not even give us the courtesy of a response so we happily took the cruise in our outside cabin. During the cruise we found that the upsell cabin was empty (for the entire cruise) and HAL used it a few days to house Guest Entertainers (in a huge suite). They could have had $5000 in their coffers for that cabin.....but apparently decided to not take our offer to make a point (have no clue what that might be).

This year we also had an outside cabin on the Grand Med cruise and about a month before the cruise HAL offered us several upsells to a Signature Suite of Pinnacle Suite. We ignored the first offer and a week later they came back with a much better offer which we accepted. It is just hard to understand HAL's philosophy. But we suggest that folks book cabins with which they are satisfied...and if a good upsell comes along then fine. If not, then fine. But why HAL would sail a Grand Cruise at only 75% capacity and not wheel and deal to move folks up....is a real mystery. In the end that is money lost for HAL...and money in pockets for the cruisers.

Hank

OP again.

What I'm stunned by is the fact that late last week an OV with Explore 4 was $849. Sunday it was about $3100 and now it is $1249. All in about 5 days. I don't understand why it is changing so much about 4 months out.

OP again.

What I'm stunned by is the fact that late last week an OV with Explore 4 was $849. Sunday it was about $3100 and now it is $1249. All in about 5 days. I don't understand why it is changing so much about 4 months out.

I saw some pricing like that as well this past week, but when I went further into the booking, the price dropped again to the regular amount. Not sure if this was just a glitch in their system. I think a 10 day inside was priced over $4000pp, but on the cabin selection page the price was back down to less than $2000. Don't know if this happened on all the cruises.

I saw some pricing like that as well this past week, but when I went further into the booking, the price dropped again to the regular amount. Not sure if this was just a glitch in their system. I think a 10 day inside was priced over $4000pp, but on the cabin selection page the price was back down to less than $2000. Don't know if this happened on all the cruises.

I saw strange pricing like that a few months ago. The prices that showed up on the opening page ("from $xxxx") for a cruise were different from the "from $xxxx" prices that showed up on the page where you choose cabin category. A few days later, they sorted it out and the prices were consistent.

The frequency with which they change prices just invites errors/glitches.

So the challenge that I take from this is to understand the pricing, watch it carefully on cruises that you are considering, and then immediately hit the buy button when a great price shows up on the web.

If you don't, the price will soon disappear and you will have forfeited the opportunity.

Take advantage of the cruise pricing, don't fall victim to it.

We view this as an opportunity not a problem. Sometimes it is good to make lemonade out of lemons.

So the challenge that I take from this is to understand the pricing, watch it carefully on cruises that you are considering, and then immediately hit the buy button when a great price shows up on the web.

 

If you don't, the price will soon disappear and you will have forfeited the opportunity.

 

Take advantage of the cruise pricing, don't fall victim to it.

 

We view this as an opportunity not a problem. Sometimes it is good to make lemonade out of lemons.

What I do is book early with my travel agent, in order to get the room I want. Then watch the prices. If they go down, I call my agent, and she re-books it to get the lower price. When she does this I still have the same reservation number and the same room - just a lower price.

There are also websites that will monitor prices and send you an email when they go down. Very useful, if you don't want to keep checking prices yourself.

We do one, sometimes both.

We have saved a considerable amount of money over the years by either monitoring prices prior to final payment or by buying inside the final payment period.

We recently purchased a cruise. Prices for the itinerary seemed very high. We watched the various pricing. One line reduced it price considerably for a one week period. We took advantage of the temporary reduction.

So the challenge that I take from this is to understand the pricing, watch it carefully on cruises that you are considering, and then immediately hit the buy button when a great price shows up on the web.

 

If you don't, the price will soon disappear and you will have forfeited the opportunity.

 

Take advantage of the cruise pricing, don't fall victim to it.

 

We view this as an opportunity not a problem. Sometimes it is good to make lemonade out of lemons.

Or, you can book the cruise, follow the pricing, and get the price drops. If, a great price, one you're comfortable with, never shows up, then cancel the cruise.

I am never sure if people are complaining about the cruise prices being too high or too low. Guess it depends what side of the fulcrum you happen to be on as well as where you are vis a vis the cancellation window.

OP again.

What I'm stunned by is the fact that late last week an OV with Explore 4 was $849. Sunday it was about $3100 and now it is $1249. All in about 5 days. I don't understand why it is changing so much about 4 months out.

The fluctuations are often par for the course. I'm watching a Celebrity cruise and an NCL cruise and it's not usual to see 50%+ price increases. They seem to show up for a few days and then settle back down to the rates they started at.

It always pays to keep an eye on prices. We lucked out on 2 Explore 4 cruises. In fact, our upcoming December cruise is UP $150/pp without the Explore 4 - and that's after final payment. Our X cruise went down about $800/pp. Fortunately my eagle-eyed sister in law caught the change and we were able to take advantage without losing any perks or having to change cabins.