When the new ships arrive, will they retire the Classics?

So, on the DIS, someone posed the question that when the 2 new ships are delivered, will they retire the Magic and Wonder.

Thoughts?

It really doesn't matter what we think....it matters what DCL decides to do. Having 6 ships would enable them to have more varied ports and cruises, and rather bring them into the world of the much larger cruise lines.

The real question is whether they will be able to fill 6 ships at their prices. The Wonder is still, in my opinion, the best looking ship out there. I prefer the Magic, but the duck tail and slide are plain ugly. Guess we'll need to see what things are looking like over the next 5 years or so while the new ships are being built.

Thats the thing that person questioned was with expansion of the fleet and options, would prices then decrease, or would DCL limit their fleet to keep demand so high for such astronomical pricing?

Keep it a niche product?

ex techie

I guess it depends on how Karl and his buddies see the line.

Based on today's prices, it appears that they want to position it as a line for the significantly wealthy as they were 2-4 times the price of other lines. Again. And if they want to price themselves as an upscale line, they have a lot of improving to do in the food quality and food service area. Again, what they have is ok for a "mass market" product, but really doesn't cut it for an upscale line.

If the "niche" is family cruising, that ship has sailed (pun intended). Other lines have a great family product without the Disney name or cost. If it is "rich family cruising," yeah, I guess that's DCL.

Given they will still have only 6 ships in play I don't see it, especially with the expansion in ports.

Instead, I think one will be dispatched to the Australia/Europe market full time, the other to Asia after a refit (unless the other lines flood the market with new ships prior). I could see a Shanghia-HK route with stops at both lands for example.

Given they will still have only 6 ships in play I don't see it, especially with the expansion in ports.

 

Instead, I think one will be dispatched to the Australia/Europe market full time, the other to Asia after a refit (unless the other lines flood the market with new ships prior). I could see a Shanghia-HK route with stops at both lands for example.

I also don't see a DCL cruise ship in the Europe market full time with competitors asking a fraction of the cost. Also cruising from Australia to Europe and vice versa every say 6 months on a then 23/25 year old ship (new ships in 2021 and 2023) built for cruising the Bahamas and Caribbean. They aren't cruise liners despite their aesthetic appearance, and transatlantic voyages can take a much harder toll on the structure of the ship than the usually calmer waters. Much like cruising in Alaskan waters with ice will take a much higher toll on the hull than warm waters.

I believe all cruises out of China need to be booked with Chinese Government agencies, so that could be a problem with payment for Guests not from China, (I maybe wrong)but it would be a great to cruise between two different parks!

ex techie

There are ways around the China restrictions, especially if you depart from HK...

In Europe, they could tie in with ABD and Disney Paris (which needs the help) to keep demand and prices up.

I also don't see a DCL cruise ship in the Europe market full time with competitors asking a fraction of the cost. Also cruising from Australia to Europe and vice versa every say 6 months on a then 23/25 year old ship (new ships in 2021 and 2023) built for cruising the Bahamas and Caribbean. They aren't cruise liners despite their aesthetic appearance, and transatlantic voyages can take a much harder toll on the structure of the ship than the usually calmer waters. Much like cruising in Alaskan waters with ice will take a much higher toll on the hull than warm waters.

 

I believe all cruises out of China need to be booked with Chinese Government agencies, so that could be a problem with payment for Guests not from China, (I maybe wrong)but it would be a great to cruise between two different parks!

 

ex techie

There are also 2 Disney parks in Japan which would make a fine cruise.

There are also 2 Disney parks in Japan which would make a fine cruise.

Not a very long one, they're right next to each other.

Yes, the parks are next to each other....but I'm booked on a 20 night Japan cruise on another line. There are summer festivals in many port locations and great places to see. And since the parks are near Tokyo which is also where a a major port is located (Yokahama, outskirts of Tokyo), it makes total sense much as Port Canaveral providing a tie in with WDW.

There are ways around the China restrictions, especially if you depart from HK...

 

In Europe, they could tie in with ABD and Disney Paris (which needs the help) to keep demand and prices up.

They could tie in with ABD, and DLP. But all year round cruising in Europe would fail. The weather can be miserable cold, rain and snow in the winter I've heard.

ex techie

We will take the Magic out of Australia she is great even at her age

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That's why I figured Europe and Australia. 1/2 year in august - transpacific - 1/2 year in Aus - return rinse repeat

Asia could be RT Tokyo with stops in Shanghai, HK, and either Vietnam or the Philippines. You could also start/stop in Singapore or do a longer run including it.

They could tie in with ABD, and DLP. But all year round cruising in Europe would fail. The weather can be miserable cold, rain and snow in the winter I've heard.

 

ex techie

Just curious if they will have made an acceptable profit off the old ships from the Re-imagining by the time the second ship is ready?

I don't see the DCL going to Asia.

I think they would be adding 1 more ship out of Florida. Perhaps one sailing from NYC.

Nothing radical, just more of the existing cruises. With the classic ships sailing more unique cruises.

Perhaps the Wonder being better outfitted for cold weather sailings.

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Hum, maybe both of the classics doing Alaska cruises. One doing the standard 7 day and the other 1 way land and sea to help expand the Adventures by Disney

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I don't see the DCL going to Asia.

 

I think they would be adding 1 more ship out of Florida. Perhaps one sailing from NYC.

Nothing radical, just more of the existing cruises. With the classic ships sailing more unique cruises.

Perhaps the Wonder being better outfitted for cold weather sailings.

 

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You are most likely right about "more of the same."

The Wonder had some major alterations before the first Alaska season....not that they couldn't do more, but I'm not sure that's in the works.

Princess and one other cruise line have a retractable dome over the pool area.

The entire adult pool could be made into a hot tub. Ect.

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Princess and one other cruise line have a retractable dome over the pool area.

The entire adult pool could be made into a hot tub. Ect.

 

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If they could reinforce the decks below to take the weight of the steel, motors and plexiglas, they could enclose the adult pool area.

They would have to remove the staircases, and install a very large HVAC system to the area to regulate the temperature and humidity, and some sort of "airlock" system for entering and exiting so that when underway it doesn't remove or affect the temperature.

And I would think that the kids pool would be more of a priority, but again that has it's problems with restricting viewing of funnel vision.

Whilst it would be nice, personally, I can't see it happening, and those ships with enclosed solarium pools were designed with that in mind. Not an addition.

ex techie

Just curious if they will have made an acceptable profit off the old ships from the Re-imagining by the time the second ship is ready?

Well the Magic was re-imagined back in 2014, so that will be 7 years before the first new ship arrives, and 9 years before the second.

I expect the Magic has already recouped it's re-imagination costs by keeping it's prices up.

As for the Wonder.... Well all we know is she is due a dry dock soon. Nothing has been mentioned or any official confirmation of what might or might not happen to her.

Even so, if it happens this year, thats still 5 years away for the first ship and 7 for the second.

I think you might be surprised at DCL's profits from the ships, and especially compared to lower cost lines despite their obvious high levels of maintenance that is ongoing, and higher cost to produce stage shows, and no casino.

ex techie

DCL is the only division of Disney that has always made a profit starting with day 1. They continued to be profitable thru recessions, 9/11, and everything else that has happened since 1998. Obviously there is some sort of formula that they use to amoritize the cost of the ships to get these figures, but it says something that no other section of Disney has done it.

The classic size ships while smaller then the Dream are still not small ships. They are sized as large as possible for the Panama canal, which happens to be the largest size ship that many ports can take, of the have not upsized to the massive cruise ship sized.

I suspect we will see the classic ships around for a long time.

Also many of the other cruise lines don't retire their ships, they move them to their sister cruise lines, because they cost so much to build. DCL does not have a sister cruise line and I doubt they would want another line sailing ships that look like Thiers.

I suspect DCL is planning on getting 50 years from the ships. Since they are inspired by the golden error transatlantic cruise ships, they can agree gracefully. Unlike the floating hotels /cubes of some of the other lines.

Think about when your see pictures of the QE 1,2, SS United States, they look graceful and there is something about a ship that looks like a ship.

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The classic size ships while smaller then the Dream are still not small ships. They are sized as large as possible for the Panama canal, which happens to be the largest size ship that many ports can take, of the have not upsized to the massive cruise ship sized.

 

I suspect we will see the classic ships around for a long time.

 

Also many of the other cruise lines don't retire their ships, they move them to their sister cruise lines, because they cost so much to build. DCL does not have a sister cruise line and I doubt they would want another line sailing ships that look like Thiers.

 

I suspect DCL is planning on getting 50 years from the ships. Since they are inspired by the golden error transatlantic cruise ships, they can agree gracefully. Unlike the floating hotels /cubes of some of the other lines.

Think about when your see pictures of the QE 1,2, SS United States, they look graceful and there is something about a ship that looks like a ship.

 

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They were sized at PanaMax to fit through the Panama canal, but the Magic can not longer fit without additional above normal transit preparation.

The Dream class will comfortably fit through the locks once they are finally commissioned and opened for service, and so will the X class that DCL will have built.

What with RCI building more and more mega ships and NCL following suit with 164,000 GT ships, ports will be widened, dredged, new piers built.

Ports would be stupid to turn these mega ships away because of the trade they bring.

I doubt if in a few years Key West will vote for larger ships when more corporations get involved, and Grand Cayman will build a pier.

It is very true that DCL do not have a hand me down line to pass off their older ships to, but 50 years?

I think there is a very good reason DCL do not use Fincantiari anymore, or as someone else called them, Tincantiari.

Cheap low grade steel. Still good steel, not great steel. But it met or still meets the regulatory standards, and also meets the price point the cruise line is willing to pay. Not long life steel. And just as we do not expect our cars or trucks to last 20-30 years these days, the same applies. And we accept the lower cost regardless.

The QE 1,2, SS United States, they were built a long long time ago, when ship building was an art form, there was pride. Not a production line like today with a get it out of the doors ASAP attitude.

They don't build them like they used to!

ex techie

ArthurUSCG,

If you ask one of your CG buddies what is the life expectancy of a new cutter vs. one built 60/50/40/even 20 years ago, what would they say?

ex techie

Ups that should be 30-40 years.

The last time I looked at the expected life cycle fit the new cutters it was still 50 years.

I expect a longer life out of my life car then what my parents for at my age. Engine use to last 100-150 k miles before they needed to be rebuilt. Auto trans, 50k.

I am at 248k on my 2000 Taurus and expecting it to last until 300k. Most old cars that you see have been rebuilt from rust buckets or were barn finds. My dad was lucky to get 75k out of his pinto before the engine and trans was rebuilt.

The old cutters are not kept afloat due to quality steel, or the at the time good design. Ships are kept afloat thru inspections, maintenance and welding.

The recent ships have massively benefited thru better metallurgy and computer modeling. I think the average cruise ship life span is 30 years now. Usually they suffer damage there makes them to expensive to repair. (Major hull damage, boiler explosion, fire, ect.) When compared to the salvage profit. Those that make it that long are passed down to sister cruise lines.

I expect DCL to operate them until the SOLAS (Safety of Life at Sea) regulation make it unprofitable to rehabs and operate the ship.

The classics would be doing more unique cruises where the ports could not be enlarged to fit the new mega ships. While the new ships would be doing the more common Caribbean runs.

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