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About SeaWatcher65

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    Southern Caribbean

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  1. I am trying to think more simply about stocks. I was looking for data about cruise ship passengers and found this from the link below. The report shows that most cruise passengers come from the United States and most trips are in the Caribbean and Bahamas. And most cruise ships I've seen depart from Florida, then I guess New York and the Gulf area. Thinking simply, before the cruise ships get going, they need customers from the United States, Florida has to be open (cruise ports, hotels, airports, etc), and the Caribbean and Bahamian islands have to be willing to welcome cruisers. Florida is closing down more. Not many islands are open to visitors and some require a recent COVID-19 test. I don't think the cruise ships are going to move for several months and doubtful at all in 2020. It's just not looking good. There is no revenue. To stay in business, they will have to raise money by borrowing more (if even possible), selling more stock, or bankruptcy -- all of which can cause stock prices to drop. Are there any other options? Stock prices are sure to go down back to $10 is my prediction. I don't want this to happen. We have two NCL cruises planned. But this seems to be the reality. If things do get back to business, it's not going to be 100% back to normal. So, what would one expect NCL's stock price to be? If it was $50-60 before the COVID-19 drop, would you expect the price to rise to 50% of what it was before the drop? 75%? My guess is it will drop to $10 again before it goes up. I looked at Royal Caribbean's stock and thought the same thing. If it was $100-125 before COVID-19, when things get back closer to normal, will it be $50-60? It's almost $50 now. I'd expect it to drop a lot more too before it goes up.. Travel and Leisure - Caribbean Islands Reopening shttps://www.travelandleisure.com/travel-news/caribbean-islands-opening-travel-coronavirus Florida Caribbean Cruise Association https://www.f-cca.com/downloads/2018-Cruise-Industry-Overview-and-Statistics.pdf
  2. Tough decisions with the stock. I am hopeful for NCL. I was going to buy when it was around $10-$12 but concerned about bankruptcy. Still concerned because I have $1000 worth of cruise next certificates and two cruises booked. I am doubtful my December cruise is going to happen. If there is not more certainty by the time of final payment in August, I will cancel and not make final payment. We need some major changes for the positive between now and August for NCL stocks to get any gain. If not, investors will pick other stocks that I think are more surely to grow a lot faster (airlines, hotels, amusement parks, restaurant supply companies, etc.) when the economy gets going more. At $10-12 I'd consider buying NCL stock, but if that low, bankruptcy is a concern. If the price is higher around $20, I'd prefer to invest $2000 in other stocks (other than cruise lines). The $100 on board credit for owning 100 shares is a plus especially for people who cruise a lot. But there's no guarantee NCL will continue that perk in the future as they have made other cost cutting measures in the past. Do other cruise lines offer a similar perk?
  3. I think it is very questionable if cruises will be happening at all in 2020. I hope so but I am not counting on it.
  4. Are people really sure about NCL stock continuing to go up in price? I thought about buying NCL stock 100 shares at $10. That's $1000. But I thought NCL was very high risk for bankruptcy, then stock is worth nothing. I'm not sure not that NCL is immune from bankruptcy. The company has no income now, tons of debt, and assets that cannot be sold. Not sure who is in the market to buy a cruise ship! Before NCL can get back to limited operations (and limited earnings), it will have to staff their ships again, depend on willing cruisers who have other safer vacation options, and hope the ports hungry for cruisers' spending are willing to open up. And the $100 on board credit if you own 100 shares? NCL could take that benefit away at any time as it continues to cut expenses. Sorry for the doom and gloom. I just hope I can take my 2 NCL cruises and not lose my cruise next certificates' value.
  5. Hoping for a cruise end of December through New Year's Day on Breakaway. But I'm not even sure about that. At least I have until August to cancel. If NCL starts cruising again, it might not include that ship and itineraries will likely change. I hope NCL gives some updates soon about future itineraries and ships. Don't know yet which Caribbean ports will be open. Not willing to book airfare now given I don't know which airlines might go bankrupt. If ship's crew are sent home, how will NCL staff the ships again and deal with the cost and time to train new crew and book entertainers. This is a mess. I might just cancel use my cruise next certificates (used as a deposit) for a cruise in 2022 if NCL is even still around. Sorry to be negative.
  6. You are correct. I have a 2018 version of the benefits that says this is covered: Financial insolvency of the Cardholder’s travel agency, tour operator, or travel supplier But Chase clearly changed that in 2019 to NOT be covered. I just checked their website and downloaded a new benefits booklet updated in December 2019.
  7. Wow. Chase conveniently changed that. I have a pdf file of their Guide to Benefits (effective August 2018) that specifically states financial insolvency IS COVERED. It's a good idea to to frequently check what terms of their card benefits change.
  8. Good questions. The chase web site has benefits information. And I attached it here too. Never had to use the chase benefits, but....it says it covers insolvency and your losses (not just what you paid using the Sapphire card). If NCL files bankruptcy to reorganize (Bermuda law seem similar to US law), I would think NCL would decide to honor the cruise certificates and not make future customers angry. But who knows? Chase Card Benefits.pdf
  9. All good questions of course. I bought my cruise next certificates on our last cruise and have the receipt (not the 125% in lieu of a refund that some people are accepting). Never used it but it covers "the forfeited, non-refundable pre-paid land, air and/or sea transportation arrangements that were missed". And covered losses include the following event: "Financial insolvency of the Travel Agency, Tour Operator, or Travel Supplier whose services you booked." Worth a try if NCL goes bankrupt. But I was really hoping for another cruise (out of Port Orleans for the 1st time) and a Hawaii cruise!!!!!!
  10. Just to be clear. I use Chase Sapphire for the trip insurance (they cover insolvency of the trip provider) but I get another policy like Travel Guard or AIG just for medical expenses beyond what my employer sponsored plan would cover er.
  11. Chase Sapphire travel card is one of the best. As long as some portion, any portion, is paid for with the Chase card, trip insurance is good. I usually get supplemental trip insurance only for medical and evacuation -- to cover what my health plan will not (and I have international coverage with my health plan). But that ship doctor could be expensive!
  12. FUTURE CRUISE CERTIFICATES -- A STRATEGY? Bought 4 so spent $500 for $1000 in certificates. If there is a bankruptcy reorganization, I hope we still get to use it. Two cruises booked using all four certificates - neither one near final payment date. Chase credit card has trip insurance that covers "financial insolvency" of NCL. To have the trip insurance, some portion must have been paid for with the credit card. Maybe I should pay $5 toward each cruise so I have the trip insurance? I'd prefer to actually go on the cruise but might be worth a try.
  13. Bankruptcy of NCL is a real fear. Anyone consider disputing their credit card charge to try and get some money back? On our last cruise, I purchased four future cruise certificates paid $500 for $1000 value and have all four applied toward two cruises. Very possible those cruise certificates will be worth nothing. If you all can get a refund of cash, better take it.
  14. Very concerned. We have four future cruise certificates (paid $500, worth $1000) apple to two cruises. Not even thinking about buying NCL stock now. I'm certain those cruise certificates would be worth nothing.
  15. BANKRUPTCY? STOCK AND FUTURE CRUISE CREDITS? I'd love to buy some NCL stock cheap but the possibility of bankruptcy is a concern. Then stock will be worth nothing and I assume future cruise credits will be worth nothing. Bermuda law allows for restructuring debt like Ch. 11 in the USA. Not sure how that would future cruise credits. I have $1000 of future cruise credits (paid $500) that would become worthless? I'm sure others have more. I was allowed to use two toward our next cruise, the other two applied to a cruise that is almost 2 years in the future.
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