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Everything posted by iancal

  1. No surprise. I wonder if the cruise line subs do a running P&L over the years on each ship and if so will this, along with the 5 year projected mtce and drydock costs of each ship, play a part in determining which ships will be scrapped/sold.
  2. I believe time is against the cruise industry. As the shutdown continues I believe that some percentage of cruisers will turn their attention away to other forms of vacation and vacation travel. And/or commit those 'cruising funds' to other longer term financial commitments. For those that remain interested in cruising I believe that the longer the shutdown goes on, the slower the recovery will be. We do thumbnail plans of where we want to travel over the next two years. Cruising is not even a consideration at this point. I do not believe that we are very different than other travelers. Clearly there is a base of committed cruisers, some of whom would be foolish enough to board a cruise ship today if they could, however I doubt that there are enough of these folks to turn the P&L from red to even the faintest shade of black.
  3. No doubt this is a huge payday for the external consultants. Outside counsel for pending litigation and or subsidiary mergers, restructuring consulting, debt restructuring advisors, etc. I suspect that the midnight oil is burning at both Corporations with their internal team working of two or three different plans depending on how long this scourge continues. I believe that at the very least Carnival Corp subsidiary cruise lines may look very different when the dust settles. Both structure and number of ships in operation.
  4. We spent two weeks in Cyprus this past fall. We made the decision to go when while we were traveling in Greece. We stayed by the ocean, in the mountains, and in Nicosia. We enjoyed it so much that we want to return. Thinking of a trip to Greece in the spring. If so a few more weeks in Cyprus will be on the itinerary. This time we want to include travel through the Turkish part of the island.
  5. Science is not a straight line. There are new learnings about this virus, the treatment, the testing, etc, coming out every day as experience grows. This does not mean that our medical professionals and lab folk do not know what they are doing. They do...in the moment. Do I think that an entire ship could be quarantined. Absolutely. Why not? Think about this. There are probably still people who would today risk flying into MIA or FLL today just to board a cruise ship. Probably the same type of people who criticize the health professionals, public health experts even though their knowledge level of the covid health care issues matches their I.Q.
  6. Bottom line...any of those older ships could go. Who knows how much money has to be spent on drydocks and refurb over the next five years. Then there is the question of demand. It is really anyone's guess. I would not be optimistic.
  7. The time to buy Carnival was a few weeks ago at 8 1/2 or so. The time to sell was a little later was when it hit the $15-17 range. I feel the opportunity has gone.
  8. Agreed . The number one question of any of those subsidiaries considering bankruptcy would probably be ‘is there enough liquidation value to satisfy those senior debt or credit holders ‘ without requiring monies guaranteed by the parent. In which case the unsecured creditors would take the big hit. I suspect that there is no
  9. Value is a personal perception. We have cruised on a number of lines. HAL is a good cruise line but for our preferences , in general, no better value than a Celebrity or Princess. I have no doubt that loyal cruisers of each of those three cruise lines would disagree.
  10. We cherry pick based primarily on ship, not cruise line. All we buy is a standard balcony cabin. No drink package. Net of all fees, taxes, and gratuities. This makes the comparison much easier. We also shop cruises in country and sometimes find differences in NA based pricing to our advantage.
  11. That is what we do when shopping over a period of a few hours. Especially for air and most especially on popular air and hotel booking sites.
  12. I believe that the only sign one will get is an announcement from the cruise line.
  13. Really, why would anyone want a counterfeit vaccination document. Why would anyone want to travel to a country where a certain disease is prevalent without taking the precaution of a vaccination. Cannot imagine anyone travelling anywhere without the basics...Hep A, B, C, tetanus, measles, smallpox, etc. We have a vaccination document that we take with us when going to certain countries. Simply a little yellow booklet that has a record of our vaccinations. Some countries require it from time to time. We take it with us when we go the travel medical clinic or to a physician/pharmacy for some time of vaccination. DW has had hers for years since her first days as an RN. It was a requirement. I do not understand what the big fuss is about his. It seems like basic common sense to easily protect yourself.
  14. The cruise was two years ago. No covid. Booked about six or seven months out. We had been watching prices on three cruise lines because we were planning a SA land trip and hoped to pick up a last minute SA cruise while on our land travels. I believe that it was a weekday but I cannot be certain. When we are planning a land trip we start looking at cruises that we might include. If we see an itinerary we start following prices on two or three ships to gain an understanding of what is a good price. If we see one we book, if not we simply continue on with our land plans.
  15. The only cruise we have purchased that has not been inside the final payment window since retiring was a South American cruise on Princess. Logged on in the AM, saw CAD at par with USD sale (30 percent saving for us) plus the fare even before the sale was considerably lower that Celebrity or HAL. Booked with our TA immediately. Either the sale or the available balcony cabins were gone by the late afternoon when out TA emailed us with the invoice and our cabin details. It was the only time for us that we have seen an early booking cruise price be better than the last minute prices that we have scooped up.
  16. Who knows? RCI and Carnival Corp both have multiple cruise line subsidiaries. Either one could easily let one of their subs slide into bankruptcy if the financial situation warranted it. This would clearly not be good for the industry as a whole. We do not know since we only see the consolidated financial statements. We do not get to see the individual financials on the subs such as Princess, HAL, Costa, etc for Carnival Corp or Celebrity, Azamara, etc. for RCI Corp.
  17. It can go either way. We usually book inside the final payment window. We have seen and experienced this many times. Ditto for air and very occasionally for hotels. We have missed out on a few great fares simply by 'sleeping' on it. We learned to establish a target buy price and buy when our price hits. On the other side of the coin, once when we were about to book a late booking fare our on line TA advised us to wait for three days. Saved us $300 pp. She must have known something we did not. Outside the final payment window we will only buy a fully refundable cruise.....including deposit. For cruise and air we book when we see a fare that we are happy with. If we wait to get the absolute lowest fare we know from experience that we will be vacationing at home on our deck. That price could go down by as much or more next week. Don't despair, lots and lots of time left.
  18. Here is a comparison from another travel vendor. HAL's refund performance may seem reasonable given the worst performers but here is our experience with one at the other end of the spectrum. We had a credit due from TUI based on a March 19 Mexican hotel reservation.. TUI is a European travel company with 19 billion Euro revenues (2019). They operate an airline, resorts, a huge vacation package travel business, and they send people on cruises. Probably one of the largest in the world with many subsidiaries. Until recently they owned Thomson Cruises. We had three communications from them between March 30 and April 30. The first told us we were getting a credit. The second in mid April advised us expect the credit shortly The third April 30 communication was a credit note.
  19. July would not be our choice-ever. Far to hot and crowded if you are doing pre or post cruise touring.
  20. I am going to order the new release of Lonely Planet's Morocco and spend some time researching where we plan to go and what we plan to do when travel eventually opens up. Doing the same for a few other of the countries that are currently at the top of our respective bucket lists. Plus drives into the mountains, walking near our home. Reading.
  21. Graphs and facts can be disputed. Two things cannot be disputed. They are inescapable. The first is that in many areas hospitals, ICU's are at, and over capacity. Health care workers are burning out. The number of hospital covid admissions is growing exponentially. The second is death. Then number of covid deaths is increasing. These are inescapable facts that some would like to ignore or gloss over in favor of others that serve to deflect some people's attention from the real issue.
  22. Stratheden....with the exception of VB ale we loved everything about our time in Melbourne and driving up the coast. Plan to come back as soon as you will let us back in post covid!
  23. I can well understand why the EU has banned visitors from the US. The writing was on the wall three weeks ago when the numbers started to spike. Canadians should be concerned as well now that some areas have lifted closures. We are not immune to stupidity. Yesterday DW regaled me with some of the ridiculous covid conspiracy theories that she has read from some of her facebook contacts. I did not believe her at first, I though she was kidding. Then I realized that she was dead serious. I am still shaking my head. They went from there is no covid through to someone putting chips in vaccines to follow (?) people and a few more in between. Very, very strange IMHO.
  24. Certainly not everyone where I live in Canada is wearing a mask. 75 percent would be the high mark, 50 percent the low depending on the store. Just came back from a Costco. They hand out masks as you enter. We were surprised at how many people did not take one or were not wearing one. Shame really.
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