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boatseller

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  1. Thanks for proving you either don't ready my posts or, well, like our other friend. In probably every other post I've said if you have factors, don't cruise.
  2. Ok, now you've confirmed you either don't ready my posts or...whatever...I just referenced the 100k number myself. It's really literally right in he title "quarantine practices may have helped spread coronavirus on the Diamond Princess". Sorry to upset your personal reality. Like I said, I'm glad the cruise lines, theme park operators and officials here in Florida are look at real data and case scenarios.
  3. Huge signs here in Florida. Universal Orlando opening June 5. SeaWorld opening June 11. Walt Disney World Resort opening starting July 11. Realistically, with the major theme parks open, there's no reason to prevent the cruise lines from restarting in August.
  4. Sorry, but best I can tell is you're just typing whatever number you happen to remember without checking if it's updated, changed or obsolete. The situation on the Diamond Princess is not relevant other then maybe as an example of what not to do: https://www.businessinsider.com/quarantine-may-have-helped-spread-cruise-ship-coronavirus-experts-say-2020-2?op=1
  5. So, just want to be sure I'm interpreting this correctly. You don't bother to read any of the official or verifiable sources I provide and continue to make up you own data. Or, you don't consider any of these trustworthy sources? The data I provided is from the University of Texas, Johns Hopkins University and the CDC. Just want to know what we're dealing with here. If you have contradicting data, I will be happy to review it. If not, sure, you do you. But I am glad the theme park operators, cruise lines, State of Florida and everyone else are using such data.
  6. Answered above. Your data? The sc2 pandemic in the US is at least 4 months, since February. The current COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios indicate an unadjusted Symptomatic CFR of 0.4% and an R0 of 2.5. Including asymptomatic cases, the CFR drops to 0.26%. This data is also not adjusted for demonstrated sero prevalence or broken down by age or underlying condition. If you have data that contradicts the CDC, I will seriously consider it. Until then, this is what the cruise lines and State of Florida will use to determine how cruising will resume.
  7. Huh? Instead of making up numbers, can you refer to a reliable source for your information? I'll help you out, you can just repost this link: https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections/ Using Johns Hopkins data, they visualize a the flattening at just over 100,000. At least you got that right. The Flu season, according to the CDC, is typically December through March. 4 Months. sc2 has been in the country since, we'll say January but some say earlier. The 18-19 Flu season estimated 61,000 deaths. So, 15,000 per month during last years flu season vs 21,000/m for the 5 month of sc2. If the trend holds past July, right when cruising will resume, the numbers will converge. Maths! Science! Is that the extrapolation you were looking for?
  8. I'm booked in August and October. What do you have to lose? If they cancel, even more credit! I haven't had a break since December. Two cruises and multiple theme park trips all scrubbed. Might as well work. Just have a backup plan. Disney, Universal and SeaWorld will be open and always fun. You'll likely fine the same guidance as on the ships so shouldn't be a deal breaker.
  9. It has not...and neither has sc2. But should we deduce that it's OK, to spread a disease that just harms fewer people? What would the cutoff be? What will you do if it flips?
  10. Absolutely! And being prepared to isolate for potentially years is 100% your choice. As noted above using CDC data, the burden of sc2 is converging on that of influenza, a disease with similar morbidities and limited preventative measures. So I thank you for being equally as considerate of us fellow human beings when it comes to both diseases. With the known prevalence, cruise ships account for a tiny, tiny number of cases. And following the guidance will keep that number very low.
  11. Well, no. Unless you're going to argue with Johns Hopkins, the links did and still support my case. And given the latest CDC Projections, it's even closer. Note on how to read projection: Overall Symptomatic Case fatality .4%, adjusted for their 35% asymptomatic projection leaves .26% case fatality rate. Note now, this is based on cases, not infections, meaning they have not yet adjusted for the sero surveys which are consistently showing an infection minimum rate of 10x the case rate. Meaning the ccv, using reliable official data, is comfortably within influenza territory. Finally, this represents overall cases and does bread down by individual risk factors which are also very well publicized. If you have alternative data and analysis, please provided it. So, now you falling into the same trap as our other friends: "Now if you don't care about getting other people sick," Please provide the exact quote where I express this opinion. The only thing I've been saying is talk to your doctor (yes, other threads), decide if cruising is right for you based on your situation, follow the guidance and have a great cruise.
  12. One other wrinkly is that my FCC was enough for two sailings and I'm already rebooked for one. If they offered another bonus on the unused portion to book in 2022....I'd seriously consider it. But it would have to be good because I'd rather use it in '21.
  13. Ah, again with the assumptions. So, for the benefit of future readers, our discussion ended with this friend not being able to backup any of their warning or claims with a reputable or verifiable source then, as you can see, well.... When it comes time to decide on cruising this year, next year or anytime, there is lots of information out there about safety, and the risks involved. I hope everyone uses this information to make their own decisions based on their own circumstances. If you have reason to take precautions, cruising's might not be for you right now. But if you're not scared of the virus, don't let anyone shame you into being scared. See you all on the waves, Happy Cruising!
  14. See, here's the problem, I'll ask you to provide supporting evidence for anything in here and...you won't. It's not about me being right, it's about me knowing the facts and statements by various orgs and agencies and being able to basically prove my points. You've had ample opportunity to response similarly, yet all we get is your 'story'. Sorry, but your story has no basis in science, statistics or policy. For example, no, testing does not help slow the spread, face coverings, hygiene and social distancing slow the spread. According to...wait for it...the CDC: How to Protect Yourself & Others or What to Do If You Are Sick 'Testing' is not mentioned once in either of those articles. I suppose these are not two of your 1000 links. And if you have 1000, you can't paste just one? Seriously, if you get this one basic fact/policy wrong, one that is very, very easy to lookup, why should we have much faith in any other statement you make? Is NJDOH such a renegade department that they're blatantly flaunting wise Gov Murphy's advice? When people decide to cruise, or not, they're going to look at the sources I provided and similar. Official, trusted, verifiable sources. Sources you are as free to reference and analyze. Why you and our other friend refuse to do so is quite a mystery (will not really but again, different topic). Until then, you're just trying to scare people and shame them over things that you think are important but just aren't supported by science, statistics or policy. (Unless you can provide a link. 🙂)
  15. Let me get this straight, you're saying that a web headline for a New York news station is more reliable for official New Jersey policy than the actual web site run by the State of New Jersey? Ok, I'm sure NJDOH would love to hear about this. "And before you go on an ill-informed diatribe" - I'll give you the same deal, quit while I'm ahead. Again with the assumptions. And, I'm the only one providing any supporting facts...oh, that's right, you don't consider https://covid19.nj.gov/index.html as legitimate information. So in summary, you do not agree with the official guidance from the State of New Jersey. That's perfectly fine, but please don't try to shame people who are.
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