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About tidecat

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    Cool Cruiser

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  • Favorite Cruise Destination Or Port of Call
    Half Moon Cay, Bahamas

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  1. The construction cost of the Carnival Fantasy adjusted for inflation is $542 Million (cost in 1990 was $275 Million). Mardi Gras construction cost is $950 Million. Mardi Gras is cheaper to build per lower berth than the Fantasy, and will generate more on board spending both in total and on a per passenger basis.
  2. LNG has made slightly further inroads in cargo shipping. While there is a berth for a passenger ship there, I don't know how large of a ship it can accomodate. Most of the traffic at Palm Beach is cargo shipping.
  3. If Carnival doesn't add to their order book for 2022-2025, that capital that would have been used for new ships will likely be used to pay down debt. I'll use an average of $2 Billion/year for discussion purposes. If Carnival can return to FY 2017-2019 levels of profitability (EBITDA of around $5 Billion) by 2023, that should be around $7 Billion annually for 2023 through 2025. Carnival's total liabilities as of May 31 were just under $29 Billion. Fiscal Years 2026-2029 will probably require some investment in new ships to offset the building boom of the late 1990s and early 2000s, but I would expect to start seeing stock buybacks then. This should allow the stock to appreciate. Dividends will come back after that. I think CCL hits $50 well before 2030, but getting back to the $75-$80 range by then may be problematic unless if there is growth in profitability later this decade. I don't know if Carnival can cut down the number of outstanding shares back to 2019 levels by 2030.
  4. That must be a recent change. I have a Chase AARP credit card as well, so I'm wondering if I'm going to have to part with that next year if I don't renew or can't renew. That $12 saves me an extra 2% on gas and dining.
  5. Anyone over 18 can join AARP. I joined a few years ago for the gift cards (I'm 40 now) but probably won't renew.
  6. Ecstasy actually went into drydock in October of 2019. She's technically good until October 2022, right before the Celebration comes online.
  7. Fascination and Imagination haven't been publicly announced as sold yet, so that's probably why the filing was indicating five ships. Imagination is at anchor off the coast of Aliaga, so that's got to be announced soon. I should also point out the Celebration may be the last ship Carnival Cruise Line geta for a while, as the filing indicated no ships on order for 2024, and only one for 2025. That 2025 new build is from Fincantieri for Princess, the second in the Sphere class. That's not to say it could change in the future, but Carnival Corp may essentially have to do without 3-4 years' worth of new builds to get the debt load under control.
  8. Carnival has $8.2 Billion in cash and equivalents on hand. At a burn rate of $650 Million/month, that is a little over 12 months. I believe this quarter didn't pick up any European sailings, so this should improve next quarter.
  9. If the Sun Princess is being sent to Peaceboat, that probably means the end of the road for the Tropicale, which was renamed Ocean Dream. Kind of strange to think we could lose the Tropicale, Holiday, Celebration, Fantasy, Fascination, Imagination, and Inspiration all within the span of a few months.
  10. I'd try posting on John Heald's Facebook page if you haven't done so already (make sure he's working that day). If that doesn't work a lawyer should be able to send a demand letter for a reasonable cost.
  11. Carnival has seemed to have issues with gift card refunds because the gift cards are not reloadable once they are completely spent. Not all of the customer service people I have spoken to have been aware of that. While it may sound silly, make sure there's an address associated with your booking. I had a cancelation whose refund was held up because of that.
  12. As soon as my discounted gift cards arrive, I'm booking for February 18, 2023. Even though I'm 889 days out, I've already plotted out having dinner at six different venues (Farenheit 555, Cucina del Capitano, Rudi's Seagrill, Ji Ji's Asian Kitchen, Bonsai Teppenyaki, and the main dining room 2x), lunch at seven different venues (Guy's Burger Joint, Blue Iguana, Street Eats, Guy's Pig & Anchor, Fresh Creations, Mongolian Wok, Bistro 1396), and even breakfast at five different venues (Lido, Sea Day Brunch, Big Chicken, Blue Iguana, and even Pizzeria del Capitano).
  13. Carnival Fascination will make her final voyage in October: https://www.instagram.com/p/CE7p5H_BLa6/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
  14. Paradise is also due for drydock - she is scheduled for 2/27/21 to 3/18/21, but those dates may be in flux as well.
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