JMAE

Agree, since Unified Command is located at the terminal. But I have one thought, since the cruise lines know that the full channel's projected opening is late May and Unified Command will need to be in place until then, why not just make the move to Norfolk until mid to late May. I would think it would provide a temporary stabilization of delivery logistics. Unless the port has a plan to handle both Unified Command and cruise functions at the same time.

Since this thread was discussing future fleet. I think newer smaller ships should be part of the plan. As I stated, if any cruise line added smaller ships with the technology of the mega ships the smaller ships would be less expensive to operate in a soft market. Because they would be easier fill closer to capacity compared to a mega ship and have a higher occupancy rate and margin. Yes, the mega ships make a larger "profit" in the current booming market, but when a market softening occurs, unless they can fill the mega ship, they will be expensive for a cruise line to maintain compared to a smaller ship with the same technology.

Using your example if a mega ship sails at 60% cap the cruise line would not produce an income to cover the expense for that sailing. For a cruise line to make their projected 15% profit it must be filled to their 100% cap. In your example the 40% passenger loss on a sailing would reduce their projected income from reduced fares and onboard spending by that percentage. If a cruise line invested in new smaller ships with similar technology of the mega ships, the smaller ships would be cheaper to sail due to the size (less fuel), less maintenance and operation costs due to reduced activities, dining options, etc. and far fewer staff (Carnival Excel class crew size 1,735, Carnival Spirit class crew size 930). I know one thing; the market will be the driving force and if the numbers show large number of seasoned cruises moving to other non-mainstream cruise lines, changes will occur. No cruise line can survive with new guest only, that is why loyalty programs exist. This is just my guess, but based on your example of 60% cap, I would bet the current Fantasy and Spirit classes would have a lower percentage of loss vs a mega ship. Since they are over 20 years old, they probably bought and paid for many years ago. I understand they may be considered an asset for securing loans.

Yes, how the cruise industry makes money. If a ship sails with empty staterooms/berths they cannot make up that lost revenue. With the current demand CCL recently hit 100 capacity, fleet wide. Their (and all cruise lines) next goal should be to sail at >100 capacity fleet wide. Since you appear to be a long-time stockholder you should understand the buy recommendation is a prediction and their targeted value may or may not come true. Remember Enron, all was good until it wasn't. Not saying any cruise company is equivalent to Enron, but things are all good until something happens like economic downturn, world unrest, and we cannot forget what happened during the pandemic two weeks turned into a year. and all the positive outlooks turn negative.

I agree, large ships are more profitable when sailing full. As I said in a market downturn it may become difficult to fill the mega ships to 100% capacity. Yes, the cruise industry has a good forecast. There were about 20 million worldwide passengers in 2022, about 31 million in 2023 and the forecast for 2024 is about 36 million or about a 5 million increase from 2023. The 2025, 2026 and 2027 industry forecast slows to an increase to about a 1 million passengers year over year, which falls back in line to the yearly increases prior to the shutdown. Based on their forecast, demand is going to soften (downturn) in the coming years compared to this year. I believe coupled with USA household (HH) credit card debt of $1.13 trillion as reported in Q4/2023 (not including vehicles or mortgages), which is an increase of $50 billion from the previous report. So, based on the industry forecast and the current economic conditions I believe the market will soften in the coming year(s) and it will take more for cruise lines to fill their ships, mega ships will be more difficult to fill compared to their smaller fleet of ships. Assuming a full ship, 100% capacity, the industry states about 70% of cruise line income comes from fares and 30% from onboard spending. At 100% cap. they make about 15% "profit", so if the ship does not sail at 100% cap. it reduces the 15% projection. In the current market, ships are being filled months prior to the sailing and all is good. However, we will know when the market softens when we start seeing mainstream cruise lines discounting sailings close to their sailing dates. I enjoy cruising and hope the industry remains strong, but think more changes are coming as berths increase and the cruise lines fight for the consumer's dollars. Changes may include ship size, charging for eating in the MDR (this transition started with a charge for additional meals), and charging for shows, etc., remember room service was once free 24/7.

Totally agree. Since cruise demand is high, upgrades are not like they once were.

Just found this in CCL's FAQ for the transition to the current VIFP program back in 2013. So depending the timeline and if they transition in the same manner, you may be okay.

Where is that stated, CCL's states:

The industry is anticipating strong growth for the next few years. When we see price moderation, we will know the cruise lines are forecasting a softening of the market. Currently, the market is strong, and demand is very high. When there is a market downturn it may become difficult to sail a fill the mega ships and the smaller ships may be more profitable since they would be able to fill them in a down market and their cost of operation is less. With that said, I believe CCLs has 9 cruise lines in their portfolio, with CCL being the largest and most attractive to new cruises due to price, departure ports, etc. In the future I believe CCL we come up with a corporate loyalty program to introduce CCL guests to their other brands (some with smaller ships) and CCL will build ships the market dictates and may include smaller ships to maintain their drive to the port marketing.

Glad we like to drink the ship's water.

I have used guaranteed a few times and never had a problem. We have also flown the same day before, but it was many years ago. I don't think we will ever do that again.

Per CCL the Pride's max draft is 26".

Yes, things can always happen. I assume some time was built into their current projected timeline to account for some delays. If nothing catastrophic or weather related occurs, they may achieve their goals at or ahead of their timeline.

Never happened to me.

USACE is stating they "expects to open a limited access channel 280' wide and 35" deep" by the end of the month and "restore port access to normal capacity" by the end of May. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers develops tentative timeline to reopen Fort McHenry Channel following Key Bridge collapse > U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Headquarters > News Release Article View

During JH's FB video today, he said for the guests on the Pride repositioning cruise not to change a thing yet. I think they know more than what is being reported. During a news conference with unified command, it was said that they are attempting to establish a 35' deep channel adjacent to the Dali. They indicated 35' would allow some container ship to navigate the channel. It would also allow Spirit class ships to navigate the channel, since their max draft is 26'.

Not sure why you would have compassion for CCL or any business that is profit driven. Loyalty is to a brand another question.

As I recall the low price ($4.94 per 12 pack) of water was established at the time CCL banned guests carrying water bottles on board and believe the price was set to soften the blow of the change. Now a 12 pack of water is $14.95 or $1.25/ea. I think that is still a deal compared to a 6 pack of soda which is $11.50 or $1.92ea. Yes, it cost more than what I pay at home, but doesn't everything cost more on a cruise or any vacation spot you may go. When the demand drops the price increases will slow or stop. I believe they are searching for the sweet spot to maximize their profits which is the reason they are in business.

This is why we don't select YTD and we always select an assigned seating. When we cruise, we adjust our meals throughout the day, so we are ready for dinner at our assigned time. The app gives YTD guests freedom to still do things around the ship without standing in line like days gone by.

Based on some reports officials are attempting to open multiple temporary channels to reestablish some port ops. They report two have been opened already open 11' & 14' deep and a third is in the works and will be about 25' deep. Spirit class ships have a draft is about 26'.

This info is posted on the Norfolk Cruise Terminal webpage regarding upcoming cruises scheduled to use their facility. 2024 While rescue and remediation efforts continue in Baltimore Harbor following the collapse of the Key Bridge, Carnival and Royal Caribbean will temporarily move cruises from Baltimore to Norfolk. If more cruises are moved, we will post the information when it becomes available. March 2024 March 31: 7-night Bahamas & Caribbean cruise on Carnival Cruise Line. Round-trip from Norfolk to Grand Turk (Turks & Caicos), Half Moon Cay (Bahamas) and Freeport (Bahamas). April 2024 April 4, 2024: 8-night Bahamas & Florida cruise on Royal Caribbean. Round-trip from Norfolk to Port Canaveral (Florida), Grand Bahama Island (Bahamas), Nassau (Bahamas) and Perfect Day at CocoCay (Bahamas). April 7, 2024: 7-night Bahamas & Caribbean cruise on Carnival Cruise Line. Round-trip from Norfolk (Virginia) to Grand Turk (Turks & Caicos), Princess Cays (Bahamas) and Nassau (Bahamas). April 12, 2024: 8-night Bahamas & Southeast cruise on Royal Caribbean. Round-trip from Norfolk to Charleston (South Carolina), Port Canaveral (Florida), Grand Bahama Island (Bahamas) and Nassau (Bahamas). April 15, 2024: 12-night cruise to Spain on Carnival Cruise Line. One-way cruise from Norfolk to Barcelona (Spain). Stops at Ponta Delgada (Azores), Malaga (Spain) and Alicante (Spain).

I thought the rule was after 30 minutes, guests would be turned away. I have seen it done in the past and to be fair to the guests that arrive on time and their staff it should continue.

Per the linked info, the individual and their travel companion assigned to the same room receive Platinum benefits for the entire cruise. The Elite benefits are some that would be nice if they were included with the VIFP program, like parking/transfers, drinks package, free shore excursions, waived room service charges and social wi-fi package.

Not sure since I don't receive gambler rates, but may have to assume CCL has have some guidance in issuing their rates. I guess that may be my point in one sense. Guests of all levels of the VIFP program are receiving the gambler benefits, so why not incorporate them into the VIFP program since the VIFP program is to entice repeat guests and it appears the gambler rates do that well.