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njhorseman

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  1. The border is closed to non-essential travel. Currently the closure extends through July 21, but note that the closure has already been extended several times and given the continued growth of COVID-19 in the US I suspect it will be extended beyond July 21. https://www.dhs.gov/news/2020/06/16/fact-sheet-dhs-measures-border-limit-further-spread-coronavirus https://www.canada.ca/en/border-services-agency/news/2020/06/travel-restrictions-to-canada-remain-in-place-for-july-holidays.html
  2. Hours ago in post 24 I gave you a link to the official order and told you where to look . Here it is again: " https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/04/15/2020-07930/no-sail-order-and-suspension-of-further-embarkation-notice-of-modification-and-extension-and-other For the beginning of the point by point list of requirements look a bit over half way down the page for this: "Therefore, in accordance with sections 361 and 365 of the Public Health Service Act (42 U.S.C. 264, 268) and 42 CFR 70.2, 71.31(b), 71.32(b), for all cruise ships for the period described below, it is ordered:""
  3. First, as part of the No Sail Order the cruise lines were ordered to present those plans to the CDC. Second, since the cruise lines can't resume operating in US ports until those plans are approved by the CDC we can safely assume that plans were submitted. Since the cruise lines have "voluntarily" cancelled all US cruises for several months beyond the July 24 expiration date of the No Sail Order it's rather obvious that the CDC hasn't approved any of the plans.
  4. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/04/15/2020-07930/no-sail-order-and-suspension-of-further-embarkation-notice-of-modification-and-extension-and-other For the beginning of the point by point list of requirements look a bit over half way down the page for this: "Therefore, in accordance with sections 361 and 365 of the Public Health Service Act (42 U.S.C. 264, 268) and 42 CFR 70.2, 71.31(b), 71.32(b), for all cruise ships for the period described below, it is ordered:"
  5. Not only are the CDC guidelines very similar to what the EU has published with the very substantial exception you noted, the CDC guidelines have been in place since the No Sail Order was adopted on April 15. In the nearly three months that have elapsed since April 15, not one cruise line has produced an action plan that has been deemed acceptable by the CDC. Governments can set all the rules they want but complying with those rules is clearly a Herculean task.
  6. Chief, one of the first actions taken by HHS Secretary Azar upon formation of the President's Coronavirus Task Force, which he heads, was to declare a public health emergency for the entire United States. I would suggest that declaration expands the authority of HHS, of which the CDC is a part, and permits an extension of executive power beyond normal statutory and regulatory limits, just as emergency declarations by various state governors have given them the authority to prohibit or modify the conduct of certain activities that are otherwise normally part of everyday life. While your analysis is no doubt correct under normal circumstances, it may not be under the broad strokes of the public health emergency.
  7. My reading of the No Sail Order leads me to believe it does apply to POA as it would appear to fit all the conditions in the order's Applicability : https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/04/15/2020-07930/no-sail-order-and-suspension-of-further-embarkation-notice-of-modification-and-extension-and-other "Applicability This Modification and Extension of No Sail Order and Other Measures Related to Operations shall apply only to the subset of carriers [1] described below and hereinafter referred to as “cruise ships:” All commercial, non-cargo,[2] passenger-carrying vessels operating in international, interstate, or intrastate waterways and subject to the jurisdiction of the United States with the capacity to carry 250 [3] or more individuals (passengers and crew) with an itinerary anticipating an overnight stay onboard or a twenty-four (24) hour stay onboard for either passengers or crew.[4] This Order shall additionally apply to any cruise ship that was previously excluded from the March 14, 2020 Order, by virtue of having voluntarily suspended operations. “Operations” for purposes of this Order means any action by a cruise ship operator to bring or cause a cruise ship to be brought into or transit in or between any international, interstate, or intrastate waterways (e.g., shifting berths, moving to anchor, discharging waste, making port, or embarking or disembarking passengers or crew) subject to the jurisdiction of the United States." Nor do I see anything in the original order dated March 14 that would exclude POA. https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/pdf/signed-manifest-order_031520.pdf Please advise what i may be missing in my reading of the orders...which specifically apply to the operation of cruise ships in intrastate waterways, in addition to interstate and international waterways that are subject US jurisdiction. I believe you're interpreting the orders to be limited to those ships that fall under the CDC's Vessel Sanitation Program, but I'm not convinced that's the case.
  8. There not a simple answer to the timeline for development of flu vaccines. If you are inclined to learn the history of flu vaccines you can read this article: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5139605/ A simplified version would be that flu virus was first isolated from patients in the early 1930s and in the US the first vaccine was approved for release to the public in 1946.
  9. I guess you haven't read what Windstar is planning to do, because their "pandemic theater show" isn't all that different from Ponant's: https://www.windstarcruises.com/health-safety/
  10. Three articles saying essentially the same thing add nothing to what could have been accomplished by citing a single article. By citing multiple essentially identical articles it looks to someone who just counts the number of links rather than actually reading the articles as there's a lot more going on than there actually is. It's similar to when almost every newspaper in the country runs the same Associated Press release. It's not necessary or useful in any way to read it repeatedly just because it's repeated in every newspaper.
  11. Half of the articles on your list are about the same work at Northwestern University. Repeating the same thing three times doesn't make the value of the work triple what it actually is.
  12. Given that 90% of vaccines that make it to the human trail phases never make it to market means the advance production of actual vaccines before they have even gone through all the testing phases, much less received government approval for use is all about the governments paying for it in advance. The pharmaceutical companies would be waiting until they were reasonably certain of success before going into production, and by doing so the actual availability of the vaccine would be many months further down the road. You've said your company is also a recipient of government money to fund its work as part of the vaccine development process . Would you be doing all that work without that funding? After all you said that thousands have dropped what they were doing. Was that going to happen without the government money that was pumped in? You obviously missed the part of my post that said "I don't object to that" in reference to the government financial support for the development of a vaccine, but it would be nice if you gave an honest acknowledgement of how key that support is for the speedy development, production and distribution of a vaccine. You seem to acknowledge it with regard to AI work when you state "The NIH would be saying we will have a vaccine in 24 to 36 month without AI, if even that" but then dismiss it when I point out that it's key to hundreds of millions of doses of vaccine being produced before human trials are completed, much less government approval for use having been received.
  13. There's a link at " Determination for color-coding status (Green, Red, or Yellow) can only be made for ships if the following are true:"on the web page that takes you this page, which has the color definitions: https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/management/interim-guidance-no-sail-order.html COVID-19 Color-coding System for Cruise Ships During the Period of the No Sail Order This guidance and the commercial transportation attestation are only applicable to cruise ship operators with a complete and accurate No Sail Order response plan for crew management and for their ships that have met CDC’s criteria for a “Green” ship. Cruise company officials must sign an acknowledgment of the completeness and accuracy of their response plan. Status of ships is contingent upon weekly submission of the Enhanced Data Collection (EDC) during COVID-19 Pandemic. Green Ship Criteria No confirmed cases of COVID-19 or COVID-like illness for 28 days, as determined by a qualified medical professional. If the ship received ship-to-ship transfers within the past 28 days, crew must have come from a ship that had no confirmed COVID-19 or COVID-like illness within the 28 days before the transfer occurred. If land-based crew embarked, they were immediately quarantined for 14 days upon embarking the ship. Note: To maintain Green status, ships must submit a weekly EDC form to CDC. Failure to submit, changes ship status to Red. Green ship status means that CDC believes the ship is currently unaffected by COVID-19 based on information provided by the cruise ship operator. Yellow Ship Criteria Previously designated Green, but now has 1 or more COVID-like illness cases pending COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. If PCR positive, status changes to Red (must sign attestation again after meeting criteria again) If PCR negative, status goes back to Green If crew with COVID-like illness are not tested by PCR or if results are not available within 1 week of the case being reported, status changes to Red. If the ship received ship-to-ship transfers within the past 28 days, crew must have come from a ship that had no confirmed COVID-19 or COVID-like illness within the 28 days before the transfer occurred. If not, status changes to Red. If land-based crew embarked, they were immediately quarantined for 14 days upon embarking the ship. If not, status changes to Red. Red Ship Criteria One or more cases of confirmed COVID-19 or COVID-like Illness within the past 28 days, or Ship received ship-to-ship transfers from a ship that had confirmed COVID-19 or COVID-like illness within the 28 days before the transfer occurred, or If land-based crew embarked, they were not immediately quarantined for 14 days upon embarking the ship, or During the past 28 days, the ship missed one or more weekly submission of the EDC form. Note: Embarkation of passengers is strictly prohibited for all ships during the period of the No Sail Order and may result in suspension and revocation of this limited permission to operate in U.S. waters.
  14. In testimony before Congress yesterday, Dr. Fauci said: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dr-fauci-is-cautiously-optimistic-there-will-be-a-covid-19-vaccine-by-the-end-of-2020-or-in-early-2021-2020-06-23 "Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday he is cautiously optimistic there will be a COVID-19 vaccine by the end of the year or early 2021" So our country's leading expert on this subject is quite a bit less certain about the availability of a vaccine than you are in your statement"We will most likely have a vaccine in the fall". By the way, one of the key reasons a vaccine might be available more quickly than normal is not so much science as it is the fact that the US and other governments have spent billions to support the research and to order vaccines in advance of approval. By getting this cash infusion the pharmaceutical companies doing the research and development are able to produce the vaccine before it's been fully tested and approved. Normally large scale production would not start until the companies were certain it would be receiving approval. By buying the vaccines in advance the US and other governments have taken the financial risk from the pharmaceutical companies and placed it on their taxpayers instead. if it turns out that a vaccine is not approved it will just be thrown away and you and I will be left footing the bill. By the way, I don't object to that, I'm merely explaining one of the key reasons the development and production process can proceed far more quickly than normal.
  15. Maybe not...at least not for US residents for the Mediterranean. There's a story right now in the NY Times that says the EU may still bar American travelers after reopening to residents most other countries because of the severity of the pandemic in the US.
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