grandgeezer

7 hours ago, firefly333 said:

RCL stock dropped to 130 the morning it opened after the Japanese carry trade fiasco and recovered to 160. Last friday dropped to 155s and recovered to 160 161 range. Yesterday dropped to 154.08. Closed 158. Lower lows. 

 

Every travel stock that reported in august forecast fewer bookings. Bank Of America yesterday said same number of travel $$$ being spent but more transactions on credit cards. Prices are normalizing. I dont see the big price jumps lately from royal like a year ago. Prices finally seem to have run into a brick wall. Of course some go up and down but not thr pricing power of before except for Icon and Star.

 

I've seen some prices dropping a lot after final payment. I bought a last minute cruise to Bermuda which you would think would be sky high. 3 days later insides dropped over $300 and $50 obc offered. I booked a kv and it too dropped and obc offered to fill the ship. Balconys and suites showed filled but they lowered prices rock bottom, especially for insides. Next time I'll wait I guess but who knows. I've also seen a peice drop I  dec. Others have posted keep checking for price drops, so others also seeing lower prices. So RCL isnt immune to what other travel stocks are seeing.

 

Its going to be hard to grow earnings in multiples like this year, but a new ship each year adds berths. It's like a company buying another company and adding those earnings to their own and saying see how fast we are growing. I have no idea where it is going. Consolidating isnt a bad thing. I do have two lower buys in at 150 and 152 gtc..good for 60 days while I cancel. More and more talk of a recession. I'll be cruising a lot and cant watch. So just put in guesses. I have no idea where the market is going. Last year was oct lows and people who bought were rewarded but who knows next year. I'm still bullish. A new ship each year with more berths still adds to the bottom line and who looks at debt? Few look at debt imo. 

 

Anyone else with thoughts on rcl? I'm doubling down if it goes lower or holding. But I dont think its immune to what's going on in travel. Zachs is always pushing rcl as a good buy. Just a note of interest about cyber security I saw ZS ZScaler say royalcaribbean was a client. 

I don’t know where you got the $130 number, according to what I found, the real low for the day was $156.01.

It’s like asking anybody if they ever won the lottery, the answer would be yes. The question should be, what happens if I don’t make it? With most airlines flying full, or close to it, it might take a long time before you get home. Do you feel lucky?

11 minutes ago, Engineroom Snipe said:

The stock dropped about 5.5% today based on Market fear regarding unemployment application numbers.

 

These numbers have constantly been adjusted every month this year and not very accurate.

 

Everyone is on edge for the past two years waiting for the market to adjust.

 

I think they have over-reacted.

 

The market has been extremely volatile.

 

The drop is more in line with a fear of general correction/recession than any concrete business reason.

 

Investors' knee-jerk reaction of a potential recession with decreased travel and tourism as it is a discretionary expense was to sell anything travel related.

 

If RCI has record bookings into next year, this is something that will not affect them (and any other cruise line) until 2026.

 

Bookings can be cancelled.

4 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

Is RCI not a product you believe in? Do you still use it?

 

As for the shutdown, RCI managed to take care of their assets (ships), pay employees that were needed to look after those assets, deal with refunds of customer money, and managed to come out alive on the other side. It doesn't seem to me that management did all that badly.

They hired a “blue chip panel” to tell them what to do and just sat back and watched. If it wasn’t for Florida, Texas, and Alaska later, complaining and keeping the shutdown in the public eye, god knows how long it would have gone on.

What about the start up and what followed? What about the staffing shortage as well as the food and beverage shortage? When they saw it would be a problem, why didn’t they cutback on passengers until it got caught up? Final payment is due some ninety days before sailing so they had time to react, a company that truly cared about their customers would have done something.

No, we don’t go on any cruises. Since December 2016, we’ve done 14 days on Celebrity Equinox in a Sky Suite, 14 days on RCL Allure in a Grand Suite, and at the time, our new favorite MSC Seaside 28 days in a Yacht Club Suite. Due to the cutbacks across the board we see no value in any of them. Life goes on.

Life has never been better, we spend much more time with our family and friends and do whatever we want whenever we want.

12 hours ago, xpcdoojk said:

I like how you turn a 110 million dollar event into a 450 million dollar event.  Kind of a convenient way to make a non factual fact even more non factual.  I don’t believe they have declared this dividend for the other 3/4 of a year yet.  

 

How much does one new build cost?  How does that compare to a 110 million dollar event.  O, I know it is a very small event comparatively.  

 

Why does someone who made great money never buying this particular stock enjoy so much talking about this stock?  Thinks that make one go hmmm, and wonder what is wrong with some people.  🤪

 

jc

 

 

This is almost too easy. It’s a $450,000,000 event because I know how to read and interpret what I read. It said $.40 per share “quarterly”, which means four times a year.

I didn’t and won’t by this stock for several reason. 15-20 years ago when we were head RCL and Celebrity cheerleaders there were two many better options to invest my money, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet (Google) to name a few.

I put a lot of time and effort in picking stocks, it reminds me of a phrase, “the harder you work the luckier you get.”. The first two questions I ask myself is 1) is it a product I believe in and 2) has it got a good track record and the management team to keep it headed in the right direction? By the way the shutdown, and startup was handled by all the cruise lines it’s a resounding no.

6 hours ago, firefly333 said:

? none above asked or said they expected debt to go to zero. Some voices they wished the dividend money was used toward debt. No one said they thought debt would be paid off or had any such expectation. Usually your comments are spot on not addressing something out of the blue. 

 

I'm real life I have no debt and so for me the less debt they carry the better. 

What is debt? We haven’t had any since 1984. Living the life of Riley and no end in sight. Thank god for the stock market and 401k.

20 hours ago, Volk9048 said:

I think the stock dropped because early Thursday the media reported Royals earnings were less than expectations. Then 2 hours later it was corrected to say Royals Revenue, and earning were higher tha n expected but by then shares were sold, the price dropped and then those computer sellers sold more.  No reason for the stock to drop with today’s report.  

If this was true, why didn’t the stock rebound dramatically today? Up a whole $1.50 a share.

My guess would be the dividend being restored. Why? A couple of facts first. There are about 281,000,000 shares outstanding, with the $.40 per share quarterly would be almost $450,000,000 

per year. 59% of the shares are held by institutional investors, 22% by insiders, and 19% by individuals. The institutional and insiders would want to knock down the debits as fast as possible so the profits would grow quicker, $450,000,000 would help dramatically.

If you think the debt being paid off would lead to lower pricing you are fooling yourself. I would bet a ton of money that if they got the debt down to 0 if would change the price one bit, only lower bookings and spending would do that.

Any other guesses or explanation on why the stock would fall so far so quick?

On 7/4/2024 at 1:52 PM, DaKahuna said:

 

 We booked a 17-day transpacific cruise in a Sky Suite while onboard and received $200 OBC.  For being a shareholder we received an additional $250.  So, that will almost pay the gratuities. 

 

Currently tipping for a Sky Suite is S23 per day per person. The total for two people would be $782. Your total obc is $450. Almost all the gratuities? My math says it come up $332 short.

2 hours ago, markeb said:

 

Why? It's a bone to investors who otherwise have to sell to recover any investment. The board is supposed to represent the shareholders. Basically you reinvest profits or your pay them (some of them) out as a dividend. I barely glanced at their 10-K this year so I don't remember what they're showing for profit or loss per share.

Dividends…. When a stock pays a dividend, the next day the stock price drops the exact amount of the payout. That new price then is known as x-dividend. In essence they are giving you some of your money back.

The first quarter of the year RCL reported debt at $21.18 billion. Second quarter results should be out later this month. It was $11.17 billion the end of 2019.

As last report, there were 257 million shares outstanding. Would you rather have them pay a token dividend or pay off on the debt which goes up due to the interest rate it was taken out at?

14 hours ago, markeb said:

 

Probably a couple of quarters after they get debt under control. Which could be awhile...

Why would they even want to reinstate the dividend? There is no benefit to them, they are sailing full, the pricing is high, and the stock is doing nicely. If they would, I think it would still be a couple of years down the road, and it would not start at anyway near where it was when it was halted. I think it was about $3.08 per share.

With 70%+ saying the value has decreased, why are pricing and booking so strong?? Just complaining about it does nothing,  quit sending them your hard earn money will. A little sacrifice for hopefully a long term gain.

On 6/16/2024 at 5:41 PM, Ocean Boy said:

Whatever you say.... apparently you are talking about someone who died.🤔🙄

Yes they did, might not have happened, at least it might have prolonged the life if the doctor would have made the right diagnosis when he examined her. The emogis you added says a whole lot about the poster. If this would happen to someone you knew or loved you might have taken it a little more serious.

On 6/15/2024 at 4:16 PM, not-enough-cruising said:

According to the legal definition of medical malpractice, 4 things MUST be proven to have occurred. 

 (1) a professional duty owed to the patient; (2) breach of such duty; (3) injury caused by the breach; and (4) resulting damages. 

 

I would be very interested in what your neighbor would argue the injury incurred was. 
 

By the way, as a result of my profession, I am incredibly well versed in medical malpractice law, as well as contingency lawyers that are always trying to push the limits. In the last decade or so, malpractice insurance companies have, more and more regularly fought these types of suits and settle less and less. On a related note, I have professional colleagues who are currently y spending their retirement years traveling the globe with their spouses and working as ship physicians as well as medical staff at high end resorts the world over. I am very familiar with cruise line business, especially the medical clinics. 

 

They didn’t diagnose or treat the problem, and the person died, if that doesn’t qualify for malpractice, what about wrongful death? This isn’t meant for the entire profession it’s for the ones who don’t provide proper medical assistance.

7 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

I didn't miss it the first time around.

Then you just ignored at as it didn’t support your opinion on the subject.

12 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

Your neighbor, the attorney, has come to his conclusions by reading a third person account of a situation which the OP branded as malpractice. This is either very funny or very disgusting. I'll go with disgusting.

 

I wonder what your neighbor, the attorney, thinks about the legal aspects of libel?

If you weren’t in such a hurry to burn me, you would have noticed that I stated “if the situation was reported accurately”.  As far as my neighbor, he was an attorney fo over 30 years and he has handled both felony and civil suits so I’m sure he knows all about libel, but apparently not as much as you.

Civil suits is a way for a person to get compensation for something that happened that didn’t warrant a felony charge. The big difference being a civil suit only needs, there is a better chance that person/company did it than beyond the shadow of doubt that the felony charge.

Just before the pandemic, I had the opportunity to be on a jury in a civil suit fo a malpractice/wrongful death suit. When we walked into the courtroom, the were two local lawyers for the plaintiff, and four big time attorneys for the hospital and doctor. You could tell they were hired guns by the way they were dressed.

On the third day, we were waiting to resume the trial after lunch, but we were still waiting an hour after the time we were supposed to start. The judge finally came and told us a settlement has been reached and thanked us for our service.

You know what brought on the settlement, it was the testimony of the expert witnesses. The defense expert explained it like he was talking to a room of professional medical people. The plaintiffs expert used the same xrays and notes but explained them like he was talking to us common folks. The xrays was the knock out punch. To the naked eye they were clean but with just a little enhancement the signs were clear as day, that’s the way they are supposed to be evaluated.

Chalk up one for David vs Goliath.

1 hour ago, not-enough-cruising said:

Your neighbor is a poster child for what is wrong with the legal system in this country. 

Apparently you know as much about the legal system as you know about the cruising industry. Thank you, know I know I’m right. 

46 minutes ago, island lady said:

 

We usually don't do anything shorter than a 14 night...but opted to do a very unusual (for us) 4 night out of PC just last month.  

 

Three reasons...20 minutes to the port from home.  Had never been on Allure before.  Wanted to see Mamma Mia while we still could.  

 

Nice little fill in cruise, enjoyed Allure, but totally bummed that all Mamma Mia shows were cancelled.  

 

Oh well, adding to RCL coffers.  😉   And even a little 50 PC stock bonus to enjoy while on board.  

What’s a 50 PC stock bonus? I thought all you got was $100 or $250 obc depending on the length of the cruise.

1 hour ago, not-enough-cruising said:

Furthermore, according to this accounting of the events, there is absolutely NOTHING to discuss with an attorney. 

If this is story is anywhere accurate, there are many many attorneys that would jump at the opportunity to pursue this. My neighbor is a retired attorney and says he would jump at it and unless they offered a settlement, or won in court, he would charge no fee. The first thing he would do after filing would let the whole world know how cruise lines feel about and treat their customers when things happen. The document from the hospital, along with a similar one from their medical professional verifying the first document would make it a slam dunk.

From my understanding a majority of the ship doctors were trauma room doctors. Their span of some expertise in many areas makes them a good choice based on the many different cases the might see. If this was a foreign country I might wonder but since it happened in a larger city, I would also question the ship doctor. Over many years, both my wife and I have been unlucky enough to visit the emergency room. In every visit we were triaged, saw the emergency room doctor and passed on to a specialist if there was any doubt.

21 hours ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

If you both have the deluxe drink package, RCI staff is not going to care if you share drinks. Just an FYI, there is no drink limit on RCI. The only cruise lines I know that have a drink limit are several cruise lines owned by Carnival Corporation. Drink vouchers for Diamonds and above are allowed to be shared. I have heard that countless times from bartenders (and higher) since they implemented this policy post COVID restart. 

If you share drinks with each other, no problem. If you share with somebody that doesn’t have a package, if the server knowing lets you do it and gets caught, he/she will be getting off at the next port. They know the rule and ignored it. Not your problem.

On 6/9/2024 at 8:33 PM, pcur said:

Just wait until the waiter leaves, then share.  I agree: this is weird behavior.

 

I also agree if it was me I would (politely) remind him that once he delivers MY dinner, it's MY food, and if I want I can share it.

Do you apply the same logic if you have a drink package? I’m guessing yes.

4 hours ago, rjrpar said:

If you don’t have a drink package, it’ll go quickly

What about the people who have no need or desire for drinks? We usually spend ours on things that don’t have the huge mark up drinks do. We try to get the balance as low as possible so no money leaves ou pockets.

1 hour ago, Georgia_Peaches said:

I’m impressed that you both can pack for Alaska and get it all into a carry on!!!  

We do 15 days with just one carryon each. this is two seven cruises B2B and going a day early.

It helps that we are Elite Plus so we each get two free bags of laundry per leg.

We fly American a lot and have changed planes in DFW many times. Your chances of making your connection is little to none. The airport is huge and we had to change terminal every time and there is a tram to catch. Also, if your incoming flight isn’t early, you are screwed. If by some chance you make the connection, there’s a good chance your luggage won’t.

We’ve had this happen a couple of times and all we did was call the airline and they changed our flights at no extra charge.

5 hours ago, Starry Eyes said:

I’m glad neither of you ever had a serious medical issue during your cruising years.   Between medical expenses and medical transport back to your own country, such an event can cost far, far more than $10k.  

 

 

I just used the $10k number because that was the number that was posted. We were well aware what a medical transport back to the US would cost, probably three times that, still not a big deal. I mentioned getting lucky by doing it.