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Tricks to getting a good deal on the flight?


Crazy4Camping
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Booking as early as possible can often lead to the lowest prices. Booking early often means one is on flights that won’t exist when departure time comes. Then you may get alternative schedules that are truly miserable. One can then not accept the changes and cancel the flights . Then rebooking on another carrier, to get decent connections, may cost significantly more. If you’re paying significantly more anyway, why let Airlines #1 hold your money for months?

 

Currently working two different problems, on two different carriers, where a combo of cancelled flights and new time schedules have made connections impossible and or require an overnight stay in route.

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Booking as early as possible can often lead to the lowest prices. Booking early often means one is on flights that won’t exist when departure time comes. Then you may get alternative schedules that are truly miserable. One can then not accept the changes and cancel the flights . Then rebooking on another carrier, to get decent connections, may cost significantly more. If you’re paying significantly more anyway, why let Airlines #1 hold your money for months?

 

Currently working two different problems, on two different carriers, where a combo of cancelled flights and new time schedules have made connections impossible and or require an overnight stay in route.

Unfortunately, these are generalities that just don't hold water in many, many situations.

 

When airlines open the booking period for a given date, say 11 months out, they might not have a handle on what fuel prices are going to be in a year's time. What if they spike seven months out? The airlines don't want to lose the profit margin they make on seats they've already sold, so they hedge against that risk by pricing the early sales high enough to offset potential increases in their own costs. If their costs don't go up - say the price of fuel actually goes down in the meantime - then great, more profit.

 

So in addition to the increased chances that 11 months is plenty of time for the airlines to mess around with their schedules, throwing best-laid plans into a cocked hat for the early birds who bought right at the start, those same early birds might find themselves facing cats rather than worms, dollar-wise.

 

The operative word here is "might." Trying to outsmart the airlines on prices is like trying to time the stock market. Good luck with that.

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Trying to outsmart the airlines on prices is like trying to time the stock market. Good luck with that.

 

Yet almost every day here, we get folks who want to know "the secret" or "the tricks" or something that gives them the quick and easy "edge". When at best you can just apply basic economic principles plus the research of watching and understanding airfare pricing for YOUR particular city-pair. And then give it your best, reasoned, informed guess on your purchase.

 

Or you can do it on a Tuesday night at 2am when there's a full moon out. Bonus point - if a wolf is howling in the background, you'll now get a free upgrade at the gate by just telling the agent you're newlyweds.

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Booking as early as possible can often lead to the lowest prices. Booking early often means one is on flights that won’t exist when departure time comes. Then you may get alternative schedules that are truly miserable.

 

Truth.

 

I'm checking Kayak now. SMF to FLL on September 10th anytime, FLL to SMF on September 24th as long as the flight leaves after 11 AM. And, what am I getting for a decent price?

 

Departure from Sacramento: Your pick-2:10 PM arriving in FLL at 12:11 AM, 11:05 PM arriving in FLL next day at 9:15 AM, 12:35 AM departure arriving at 10 AM in FLL, and the ever-popular 6 AM departure time.

 

Return flight from FLL? 7:10 PM is a popular time (12 hours after the ship docks), 4:45 PM is better, but then there is that 5:30 PM flight.

 

Now, really, would anyone be excited to wake up at 2-3 AM to be at the airport at 5 AM for a 6 AM flight?

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Now' date=' really, would anyone be excited to wake up at 2-3 AM to be at the airport at 5 AM for a 6 AM flight?[/quote']

 

I frequently choose 6am departures, as they are often MUCH cheaper than departures later in the day. For my home airport, it means getting up around 3:30am to be at the airport by 5am. Don't enjoy it per se, but if the savings are there I have no issue with it. Although in the example you gave, depending on the price difference I'd probably opt for the afternoon departure that gets in just after midnight, as I also don't have an issue with a late arrival if going straight to a hotel.

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In taking a look at the current price snapshot.... uggggggg.....

 

The price for economy seats on the flight that I had booked is now $697. A close equivalent where I would be leaving 30 minutes later and traveling through Houston instead of Washington DC is cheaper at $548. And, a check on the flights now has me either departing or arriving at bad times.

637038778_Book_now_SMF_to_FLL_910__924_-_Google_Chrome2018-05-1909-38-10.thumb.png.2d906710b458dd291fe0975b8311cac5.png

575136457_Review_trip_itinerary__United_Airlines_-_Google_C2018-05-1909-35-43.thumb.png.df183a97b08d292a602d191e2fd6f435.png

2062711961_Review_trip_itinerary__United_Airlines_-_Google_C2018-05-1909-36-50.thumb.png.a93df1abb40d3b3127e946dabc9ffaa7.png

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Sigh.... the closer I get to my cruise date (110 days and counting), the higher the prices are for the flight that I have purchased :eek: . And, if I want to keep my costs low, I have to deal with terrible arrival/departure times. :loudcry:

 

Maybe that's why I have been hesitant on traveling before earlier in my life. I would be thinking about a trip about 3-4 months in advance, see the flight price, and do something else. Lesson learned.

 

If you are wondering what my flying preferences are...

  • Non-stop or one-stop for domestic flights. And, it's rare to find a cross-country flight that is non-stop from SMF.
  • I prefer a flight from SMF after 8 AM to arrive at my destination in the late afternoon or early evening.
  • For the flight home from the cruise, a flight at least 5 hours after the ship's scheduled arrival.
  • I do NOT park at the airport. The daily rates are $12 per day, so I rather have a friend take me over (and pay for breakfast/dinner) or use the airport shuttle.

1337059430_Review_trip_itinerary__United_Airlines_-_Google_C2018-05-2621-19-21.thumb.png.6bfc8294850f66ef0954e2445b667a6d.png

163564629_Review_trip_itinerary__United_Airlines_-_Google_C2018-05-2621-20-22.thumb.png.6a8cf5c2fce65183af2e8bbb4e90884a.png

529617732_Kayak05-26.thumb.png.33d85f62136bc98548e8e9a6f67f45b4.png

Edited by Z'Loth
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The secret to getting a "good deal".....

 

- Be flexible (airline, connecting airport, time of day). You need to decide if the cost of the fare is more important to you or the cost of the flight. Business travels frequently equate time with money, so the non-stop flights usually go for a premium.

- On a business oriented international route usually the wed-week flights fill up last. That usually means there is some cost saving. Given most cruises depart from tourist oriented destination that principle may not hold for your route.

- Usually booking early gets you the best deal, however from time to time airlines have seat sales. Sometimes they are good deals. Hard to predict if or when they will occur.

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We get it. You booked early, and in this particular case, it appears to have worked out in your favor. If we will all stipulate that, will you stipulate that that doesn't mean that will always be the case? Then perhaps we can put an end to the repetitive updates. ;)

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I'm a facts, figures, and hard data type of person being that I'm a IT Support person with a Business Administration-Management Information Systems degree working in cloud services and in need of a vacation. This analysis is satisfying my curiosity about airline fares. I'm getting many data points on the price of the flight, but I have too small of a sample size (two flights) to bring about any definitive conclusion. The trends is what I find most interesting, especially when I wasn't even planning on purchasing the tickets until May when the final payment was due and I was making an adjustment on the travel insurance to cover the non-refundable airfare and hotel. Still, this data is much more fun to look at than what I deal with on a daily basis.

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This analysis is satisfying my curiosity about airline fares. I'm getting many data points on the price of the flight' date=' but I have too small of a sample size (two flights) to bring about any definitive conclusion.[/quote']That's the understatement of the year. You probably need a sample size of several hundred thousand tickets for it to be statistically meaningful, and many millions to draw any definitive conclusion. If there is even any kind of definitive conclusion that could ever be drawn other than "maybe".

 

And this is why this self-congratulatory posting is, with respect, really not very interesting.

 

Remember that earlier in the thread, I posted about a personal experience with a sample size of the same order of magnitude as yours, and recounted how I paid more by booking early.

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I have daily been looking at BC ticket fares BNA-PPT for next Feb. UA has had a standard set price for that ticket since they came available. Maybe once a month down $300 or up $500, but mostly the same price everyday.

 

Never was a “saver” fare offered for FF miles, only full boat. Suddenly, last Thursday UA offered a fare for the seats at $1200 off the regular price. No system wide sale, just a sale on mostly the SFO-PPT leg that incorporated my flight. I jumped on it, and called a friend on the West Coast, on the same cruise about the pricing. He was tied up at work and by the time he could book it, later in the day, those prices were history. He missed his chance.

 

As Flyertalker said, in the now deleted comments, one never knows what the lowest airfare might be. However, since only a few BC seats remain on the return flight with two large cruise ships disembarking, it will take a bit of luck to get a lower price.

 

Watching prices, and catching a random Thursday sale, paid huge dividends. No rhyme or reason for a random sale, but utilizing ita matrix can pay huge dividends! Today, those few remaining seats are back to their standard base line price. Funny thing was after the sale, the price was more than $2K over the standard price for anyone that panicked about missing the 6-8 hour sale!

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Is the sudden changes in prices just an American thing?

I've been watching prices from the UK to Florida for the last 6 months or so, and there has been virtually no change in price. Similarly, my flight to Madeira in September has remained the same for the last 4 months.

Why do US airlines change their fares so much?

 

Sent from my SM-T580 using Forums mobile app

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Understand what a good price is and be prepared to hit the buy button when you see it.

 

Don't wait for the 'lowest price'. Chances are you will miss it and have a staycation.

 

Price alternate airports, alternate days. Sometimes do one or both can result in substantial savings

 

Don't confine yourself to return air fares. Price one ways, and again be flexible with regard to airport and date.

 

Flight prices can change within hours based on algorithms. Don't expect the price in the AM to be the same as a few hours later.

 

Pay attention to fare codes if you are flying in winter or on routes that often have delays. Try to buy on a carrier that has multiple flights per day to you destination or point of departure just in case there is a screw up.

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Watching prices, and catching a random Thursday sale, paid huge dividends. No rhyme or reason for a random sale, but utilizing ita matrix can pay huge dividends! Today, those few remaining seats are back to their standard base line price. Funny thing was after the sale, the price was more than $2K over the standard price for anyone that panicked about missing the 6-8 hour sale!

 

I think that it is important to recognize the difference between a "sale" and regular algorithm-driven price changes.

 

A "sale" is generally when an airline reduces prices in a well-publicized and broad marketing maneuver. You will find price reductions in a number of markets, generally covering flights operating during a specified period of time and with a defined purchase period ("Sale ends June 15th", for example). And, of course, there will be capacity controls on the number of seats available. As an example, Alaska regularly has "Flight Deals" good for purchases in a particular timeframe and for flights in select markets. They are well-publicized - and one can sign up to receive notices of when they occur.

 

Price changes due to supply and demand are an entirely different animal. These are driven by yield managment algorithms, not as part of an overall marketing campaign, and are in response to current and projected demand for specific flights between specific city-pairs. I would suspect that there wasn't a big "Tahiti on Sale" banner, but just a simple inventory adjustment that resulted in a lower price. For a while, until that new inventory sold out. Which is why the friend lost out - there weren't any more of the "cheap seats" left by the time he got to it. Not a "sale", but just regular yield-managment inventory adjustments.

 

Both of these can result in lowered prices for the consumer, but know that both are inexorably linked to our old friends, Supply and Demand. Even with "sales", you won't find all flights in all markets at a reduced rate. If flights between ABC and XYZ are selling strong, there is no reason to discount those. We've seen many posts where folks say "XX airline had a sale, but nothing between my cities when I wanted to go".

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We usually do late bookings. We follow cruise prices and air (if applicable) at the same time.

 

When our cruise price hits we buy-but we put the purchase on hold with the cruise line for 4-8 hours. Why? We want to confirm our air and hit the buy button. Prices can change in an hour. So we book and confirm air (we have already done our shopping), then call our TA back and hit the buy button on the full payment for the cruise. Must have done this a dozen times or so.

 

No point in scoring a great cruise price if we cannot get reasonable air.

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I think that it is important to recognize the difference between a "sale" and regular algorithm-driven price changes.

 

A "sale" is generally when an airline reduces prices in a well-publicized and broad marketing maneuver. You will find price reductions in a number of markets, generally covering flights operating during a specified period of time and with a defined purchase period ("Sale ends June 15th", for example). And, of course, there will be capacity controls on the number of seats available. As an example, Alaska regularly has "Flight Deals" good for purchases in a particular timeframe and for flights in select markets. They are well-publicized - and one can sign up to receive notices of when they occur.

 

Price changes due to supply and demand are an entirely different animal. These are driven by yield managment algorithms, not as part of an overall marketing campaign, and are in response to current and projected demand for specific flights between specific city-pairs. I would suspect that there wasn't a big "Tahiti on Sale" banner, but just a simple inventory adjustment that resulted in a lower price. For a while, until that new inventory sold out. Which is why the friend lost out - there weren't any more of the "cheap seats" left by the time he got to it. Not a "sale", but just regular yield-managment inventory adjustments.

 

Both of these can result in lowered prices for the consumer, but know that both are inexorably linked to our old friends, Supply and Demand. Even with "sales", you won't find all flights in all markets at a reduced rate. If flights between ABC and XYZ are selling strong, there is no reason to discount those. We've seen many posts where folks say "XX airline had a sale, but nothing between my cities when I wanted to go".

 

Where so you sign up to find out about flight deals to Alaska?

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Where so you sign up to find out about flight deals to Alaska?

 

Never said that. I said that Alaska Airlines will frequently run special limited-time sales for various markets. You can get announcements about AS fare deals through their Mileage Plan membership communication preferences.

 

And, FWIW, the current "deals" in the Anchorage market are to/from Bethel, Juneau, Portland and Seattle. So likely not what most cruisers need.

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Never said that. I said that Alaska Airlines will frequently run special limited-time sales for various markets. You can get announcements about AS fare deals through their Mileage Plan membership communication preferences.

 

And, FWIW, the current "deals" in the Anchorage market are to/from Bethel, Juneau, Portland and Seattle. So likely not what most cruisers need.

 

Sorry I misunderstood what you meant.

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Where so you sign up to find out about flight deals to Alaska?

You want a deal to Alaska?

 

Sign up for an Alaska Airlines-branded Signature Visa card (Bank of America) and you'll get 30,000 Alaska miles (good for numerous airlines) and an annual $99 ($121 after taxes/fees) companion certificate. One passenger pays the going price, the other pays $121. It's only good on Alaska metal and only in economy, but it includes any Alaska route - to Alaska, California, Hawaii, Mexico...

 

So for example say a round trip from DC to Anchorage costs $700. For two pax, the total would be $821, or $410.50 per person. Good enough deal?

 

https://www.alaskaair.com/content/credit-card/visa-signature

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