Posted November 25th, 2017, 06:20 PM
You can ask your TA to ask HL how far down the list you are on what is apparently a popular cruise, and they may or may not tell you the truth or know,
Assuming no major changes in the relative status of the western economies, if you are in the top 20 the list may move quickly and you may get a spot, especially when you get into the seven months before the cruise starts when penalties kick in for booked pax cancelling, proportionately larger the closer to sailing.
There is, however, a bit of game-playing, as with other lines, so if you are with an important TA or are an important person in some way, your odds will improve, as they do with other lines, e.g., if you are a frequent cruiser or known.
The problem is that meanwhile you have to have back-up plans, with their own cancellation dates, for other cruises or vacations. If you are retired or very flexible, it may not matter, but I need a fixed booking on a fixed date to plan my vacations and cruises. HL knows if you lose interest in waiting they can just shrug and fill last minute cancellations with random retired Germans interested in a discount deal. The ship will likely sail full one way or the other.