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Watching this thread very closely. We are supposed to leave on the Norwegian Getaway out of Miami on October 7th and really hoping for good weather. Hopefully someone with more weather knowledge then me updates this thread as it appears the OP may be on a cruise of their own!

 

 

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PellicanBill does a phenomenal as a hurricane watcher. I've seen no one better. If you have a cruise coming up in the season check the Hurricane page and you won't go wrong.

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Awww, shucks. Thanks.

 

Watching Kirk in a separate thread. Of the other 3 spots, nothing worries me. One has becone Tropical Storn Leslie and is in open waters and expected to go nowhere. Another disturbance behind it is nothing to worry about also.

 

Another spot off the Carolinas had an elevated prediction late yesterday but dropped back to low % chance to develop again this morning. The real issue here is more rain could be coming to the Carolinas. I don't see this becoming a serious threat but there is some time to go yet.

 

In the lower latitudes, aside from Kirk we have former depression 11 which has fallen apart and is considered remnants only now. Head over to the Kirk thread for more.

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Kirk fell apart and won't be tracked as a tropical system now.

 

Leslie still harmless, as is the potential for another system behind it. Forecasters expect those two to merge and continue to be no threat to land.

 

The disturbance off the coast has a 40% chance to get organized over 5 days so we'll be watching that one.

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Remnants of Kirk have a 60% chance to reform, so still watching. If it does it will be no worse than Isaac was crossing the islands.

 

Leslie has fallen apart and although there is a chance for reforming in that area still no threat to land.

 

The system off the Carolinas has a 50% chance to form but forecast path has a definite curve that glances the outer banks so I don't think it will have inland rain and add to flooding. Let's hope it does recurve as shown and heads out to sea with little impact.

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Although Leslie is likely to reform it's still not a threat.

The disturbance now off North Carolina is less likely than before to create any serious system. It should move off with little effect now.

 

Kirk, however... hop over to that thread.

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Leslie is still out there, doing nothing other than making interesting forecast patterns. No threat. Kirk discussion on another thread. Nothing else interesting.

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Leslie expected to reform and circle without any threat to land. Kirk in the other thread. Nothing else to watch (good!)

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11pm EST Friday: Kirk is gone. Leslie is doing a solo dance way out east of Bermuda and will bump into nothing for days. Reminds me of the one drunk woman dancing for an hour at the last country music festival I went to.

 

 

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11pm EST Friday: Kirk is gone. Leslie is doing a solo dance way out east of Bermuda and will bump into nothing for days. Reminds me of the one drunk woman dancing for an hour at the last country music festival I went to.

 

 

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:'):'):')

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Leslie is expected to move a little southwest, stop, then reverse and go northwest and finally start to weaken to tropical storm level.

 

Nothing else expected across the Atlantic the next 5 days.

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I'm cruising next Friday October 12th to the Bahamas and I'm starting to hear some rumbling about a tropical storm possibly forming named Michael. Does anyone have any info on this? Thanks in advance!

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We our leaving this Sunday October 7th on Serenade of the Seas Boston to Bermuda. Anyone think Seas will be rough because of Leslie? Or is it far enough out that won’t have an effect?

 

 

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We our leaving this Sunday October 7th on Serenade of the Seas Boston to Bermuda. Anyone think Seas will be rough because of Leslie? Or is it far enough out that won’t have an effect?

 

Good question. Leslie has intensified and is fairly large, and won't get closer to Bermuda than it is now, but it is definitely having an effect.

 

Seas are about 10' across a wide area of the Atlantic. The lee of Bermuda, and the reefs, reduces that to 5-7' seas. There may be some showers but most of the rain is well east. Winds are 20-25mph over Bermuda.

 

Elsewhere, there is a disturbance with low chance of development but will bring some weather as it moves north the next 5 days, to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and then maybe Cozumel and the Mexico coast.

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Elsewhere, there is a disturbance with low chance of development but will bring some weather as it moves north the next 5 days, to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and then maybe Cozumel and the Mexico coast.

 

 

Lovely, just lovely. We are leaving out of Galveston on Carnival Freedom on October 6th for Cozumel, Belize and Roatan. I guess we are going to go head first in to this system.

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Lovely, just lovely. We are leaving out of Galveston on Carnival Freedom on October 6th for Cozumel, Belize and Roatan. I guess we are going to go head first in to this system.

 

The disturbance is moving northwest the next 5 days to the Yucatan and you move south. It's pretty disorganized and you may have some weather for Cozumel but I think it will improve further south depending on order of ports. Still only 30% chance to develop.

 

Near Bermuda, Leslie is moving north away from Bermuda and sometime tomorrow expected to be weaker, back to tropical storm. That should improve seas and weather at Bermuda.

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The disturbance has increased chance of development today, and since someone posted a new thread I made my comments there ("Potentially Michael").

 

Leslie has reduced to tropical storm will hang on for days... but eventually diminish as it moves east... east? yes east! Weird.

 

Oh, and for Bermuda - winds have reduced to 10mph or less, but waves are still almost 10' for a lot of the voyage until reaching the shallow waters there. waves are 5-6' closer to Bermuda's west and central areas including the Cruise port.

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As Leslie moves eastward, conditions in Bermuda are improving. Seas are 7-8' on approach with 4' in the bay (still a lot for the bay though) with a secondary swell of 1-2'. Winds down to a breezy 5-8mph. A passing shower here and there. Not bad.

 

Reporting on the disturbance in the other thread...

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The disturbance is moving northwest the next 5 days to the Yucatan and you move south. It's pretty disorganized and you may have some weather for Cozumel but I think it will improve further south depending on order of ports. Still only 30% chance to develop.

.

 

While still disorganized, seems it's now more of a concern.

80% chance of development in the next 48 hours.

90% chance of development in the next 5 days.

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Leslie has been around 13 days now! And still going.. but going east and no worries. Bermuda should be seeing little effect any longer.

 

Another disturbance further east of Leslie does not have much chance to develop.

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Leslie still churning away to the east... getting stronger again but no threat.

A new disturbance off Africa could develop but has a NW curve that sends it into rather harmless territory for now.

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Welcome back after our "vacation" from Cruise Critic.

There is happily no tropical activity.  Even the small disturbance over Central American is not expected to do anything.

All quiet...

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