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Time to start a thread devoted to Florence. Today, Wednesday Sep. 5, we have seen Florence defy models and forecasters by becoming a major huuricane when it wasn't predicted. Also, the forecast path took a jog to the west, and models are widely scattered so the median of the models and forecast has it heading very near Bermuda and on toward the US Carolinas coast. And maintaining major hurricane status beyond 5 days.

 

All cruises to Bermuda, East coast areas, and NYC cruise arrivals and departures need to watch carefully.

 

AL06_2018090518.png

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I am watching this storm. I live in Myrtle beach and have a cruise from Port Canaveral Florida on Sunday September 16th. I am praying Florence stays away.

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I am watching this storm. I live in Myrtle beach and have a cruise from Port Canaveral Florida on Sunday September 16th. I am praying Florence stays away.
We are also. Living on the river, right in the coastal center/path of 2 major hurricanes flooding us in the last 3yrs I'm always weary and practically live on the weather channels models from Sept to Early Nov. Lol, it WAS looking pretty good this year so I booked us a 5day out of Charleston, leaving Sept 22nd. Rebooking is not an option for us due to a few surprises I've already gotten in the works. Plus this is the 1st of 3 we've got booked up to next Aug. And our ONLY time Cruisin without any of the kids or grands. I guess we'll just have to continue watching Flo to see the developing path... It makes me very glad that boards like this exist.

 

[emoji924]️ Cruisin Trkrs [emoji597]

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This is our first family cruise in a long time. Kids were in sports in high school. Both went through college. My daughter works and is again in school at night for another degree. So we really want this vacation to happen. Plus there is another storm behind Florence. The weather channel says they are 2 days apart. I’m just praying we don’t get hit in the carolina’s and we get on the ship. I don’t care where we end up going. Hopefully both of us get to enjoy our cruises.

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A bit worried at the moment. Due to sail on the Pride out of Baltimore this Sunday the 9th to...Bermuda. Frustrating! This will be my fourth cruise, but the first time weather is a factor. Anyone with experience care to elaborate on possible things that could happen? I guess I'm worried about cancellations after SO much planning has gone into this. Thanks!

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Sorry for you, Webmommy, as I think your cruise will have a change of some kind (as I did on NCL Breakaway from NYC two years ago.) There is also a cruise to Bermuda from NYC this weekend that is likely to head south instead.

I think the other 2 have a better chance - Sep. 16 and 22 are farther away and we can hope the next storms run into less favorable conditions than Florence is seeing.

 

I will try to interpret the models for Florence tomorrow and see if there is any real ability to read the developments near the Cape Verde Islands.

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Sorry for you, Webmommy, as I think your cruise will have a change of some kind (as I did on NCL Breakaway from NYC two years ago.) There is also a cruise to Bermuda from NYC this weekend that is likely to head south instead.

I think the other 2 have a better chance - Sep. 16 and 22 are farther away and we can hope the next storms run into less favorable conditions than Florence is seeing.

 

I will try to interpret the models for Florence tomorrow and see if there is any real ability to read the developments near the Cape Verde Islands.

 

Thank you for your quick reply. I think I'm just fine with a change in destinations. I think I'm more worried about it being canceled. A few friends mentioned that cruise lines deal with this sort of thing and have plans in place. I almost wish to get an email from them telling me all is well, but some said they don't mention anything until you get on board. Just stressing I think!

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I'm also leaving for Bermuda this Saturday and stressing out. I hate that so much planning went into this and a stupid hurricane might ruin it.

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Ugh. I'm on the Escape in Sunday with DW, DD (1.5) and the in law's. Would be bummed on a change in itinerary, but it's still a vacation! Hopefully by this weekend the weather models will have some consensus so NCL can make an informed decision.

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Good morning everyone. Florence news has not improved. The forecast shows Florence slowing for the next few days, so that 5 days out it will not have reached Bermuda. It is forecast to approach on the SE side as a dangerous Category 3 storm. The question now is will it pass to the south and spare Bermuda or start to curve NW? Tuesday and Wednesday seem to be the critical days for Bermuda.

 

Them, we have the east coast to consider. The Mid-Atlantic through New England need to be ready late next week. Wish it were better news. Keep watching.

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I'm also on a cruise to Bermuda this Saturday so I'm anticipating a possible itinerary change. It's fine with me because I just need a vacation. So far we have not heard anything either so as mentioned before they will probably wait until we board to let us know.

 

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Very hard to say what Dawn will do tomorrow and I am sure they will take it day by day. I would say you are more likely to go than not at this point, but if you do there is a risk your stay in Bermuda could be cut short if Florence starts northwest. What I will be watching for is tropical storm force winds. If those are threatening to touch Bermuda the ship must be out of port.

 

Your ride home may be rougher than usual, and rainy. If Florence does not follow the present forecast and turns more directly at Bermuda or northwest into your sailing path, then you will have a great chance of changes to your sailing. Please be ready to return early or late in either are required.

 

If Florence should continue to shift west and say south of Bermuda, all the sailings will be in better shape - except the one Baltimore.

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As of the 11:00 AM advisory from NHC, looks like the track has shifted further south of Bermuda, but still a wide uncertainty in the five day projections.

 

 

florence%208.6.18%2011a.png?psid=1&width=897&height=736

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So if it has slowed down when do u think it will hit land if it does? I’m in Myrtle beach and leaving on the 15 to drive to Florida and leaving port on the 16th. supposed to be going to the eastern Caribbean. Do u think if it’s going to hit somewhere on the coast it will before then?

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So if it has slowed down when do u think it will hit land if it does? I’m in Myrtle beach and leaving on the 15 to drive to Florida and leaving port on the 16th. supposed to be going to the eastern Caribbean. Do u think if it’s going to hit somewhere on the coast it will before then?

 

The 11am update shows it south of Bermuda on Tuesday morning, but increasing speed, so I would estimate the threat to the east coast to be Thursday-Friday Sep. 13-14. It is too hard to predict what it will do as it approaches the US coast - fronts and steering and shear are all muddled there. Stay tuned this weekend and hopefully the experts will have an opinion.

 

I am hoping a front will pick it up and whisk it up the coast but offshore which is a common fate for these storms. Making a serious landfall in mid-atlantic or the northeast is more rare.

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I'll show why Florence is extra hard to pin down. Remember that ANY tropical storm is hard to predict more than a few days out. But Florence has defied forecasters and models on both track and intensity.

Here are the model runs from the two major models used for path prediction:

 

ilf586.png

9

16gembp.png

 

You may be able to see that the first model shows a trend more westerly and threatens the US Coast. The other shows more of a threat to Bermuda, with a NW direction and turns to the N sooner. It is hard to reconcile these two different views. So far, the storm has shifted more westward than predicted two days in a row. Atmospheric conditions change day to day and that could stop. Or it could continue. Since Florence seems to makes its own rules, we have to take it day by day.

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Pelican, very kind of you to keep everyone informed. Florence has defied forecasting so far but hopefully it will fizzle out. We caught the tailwinds of Matthew in Canada & had to skip PEI. It was an adventure we won’t ever forget. We were rockin & rollin in real-time.

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Here is a link to a very smart tropical storm expert and I always read his analysis carefully when published. He's just released a new one. Scroll down for Figure 3, predicted wave heights for next Wednesday as taken from the EFS weather model run from 2am EDT Thursday (so it's already 12 hours old.) But you can see an expected danger area in wave heights which cruise ships will avoid. Hard to say where this danger zone will end up yet. Lots more in that article if you care to read it.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Florence-Catches-Its-Breath-Potential-Bermuda-US-Encounter-Next-Week

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Not much new this morning. Florence still weak but expected to regain major status (3 or more). Heading mostly West to pass south of Bermuda, then toward the east coast and then uncertain.

 

TWO more tropical storms expected to form in the middle latitudes which is a concern for the caribbean, Ts&Cs, Bahamas, Florida eventually.

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Awww. Sorry about Dawn but glad you found out now and can repack.

 

I want to point out at least one news outlet had a headline today saying "Florence Takes Aim at Bermuda". This is what I can't stand. It is mis-representing the dangers. You would think the forecast is for a direct hit based on that, yet the forecast for Bermuda has improved eaxh day as Florence shifts west and looks to pass well South. Yes, there will be tropical storm wind and rain but not so far it does not look like a serious hit.

 

 

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It’s looking like the Carolinas are going to be affected. So now I will prepare in Myrtle beach. Then hope we will get on the ship on Sunday the 16th. Then who knows where we will end up with the other storm looking like it will head to the eastern Caribbean which we are supposed to go to. So much uncertainty. Already have excursions booked. Might have to start looking into the western excursions just Incase.

 

As of now our itinerary is supposed to be:

Sunday the 16 Port Canaveral

Monday the 17 Nassau Bahamas

Tuesday the 18 sea day

Wednesday 19 st. Thomas

Thursday 20 st Maarten

Friday the 21st at sea

Saturday the 22 at sea

Monday the 23 Port Canaveral.

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It’s looking like the Carolinas are going to be affected. So now I will prepare in Myrtle beach. Then hope we will get on the ship on Sunday the 16th. Then who knows where we will end up with the other storm looking like it will head to the eastern Caribbean which we are supposed to go to. So much uncertainty. Already have excursions booked. Might have to start looking into the western excursions just Incase.

 

As of now our itinerary is supposed to be:

Sunday the 16 Port Canaveral

Monday the 17 Nassau Bahamas

Tuesday the 18 sea day

Wednesday 19 st. Thomas

Thursday 20 st Maarten

Friday the 21st at sea

Saturday the 22 at sea

Monday the 23 Port Canaveral.

 

I am quite sure Florence will be well clear of Port Canaveral as of Sunday 9/16 and probably up in New England or farther. The Carolinas will be dealing with it Thursday-Friday - then further north Saturday-Sunday.

 

The bigger question is the developing two storms off the Cape Verde Islands right now. Development is expected, but they will encounter more hostile conditions in about 5 days. Their path looks to be further south than Florence which could be a Bahamas/Florida threat (or even Caribbean.) Much too soon to even predict.

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As of 11am EDT Friday: Florence weakening has ended; Strengthening is now expected and a return to at least Category 3. The path is now well south of, and passing by, Bermuda. I fully believe Bermuda will have little impact now- wind and waves which may not even reach tropical depression level! Heavy surf, windy, and bands of rain.

 

The Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and even the Northeast need to start preparations...Thursday through Saturday next week.

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Pelican,

 

We are scheduled to leave on a 5 night cruise to Bermuda tomorrow out of Baltimore. Although you said that Bermuda appears to be out of the direct strike from Florence, can you speculate to what the waves will be like and what will happen if hurricane does hit near the mid-Atlantic coast and we are prevented from getting back into the port. Thank you for your opinion and insight. Royal Caribbean has said nothing and when I call they reassure me that everything is fine and ask if I want to buy a drink package! 😳

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It’s looking like the Carolinas are going to be affected. So now I will prepare in Myrtle beach. Then hope we will get on the ship on Sunday the 16th. Then who knows where we will end up with the other storm looking like it will head to the eastern Caribbean which we are supposed to go to. So much uncertainty. Already have excursions booked. Might have to start looking into the western excursions just Incase.

 

As of now our itinerary is supposed to be:

Sunday the 16 Port Canaveral

Monday the 17 Nassau Bahamas

Tuesday the 18 sea day

Wednesday 19 st. Thomas

Thursday 20 st Maarten

Friday the 21st at sea

Saturday the 22 at sea

Monday the 23 Port Canaveral.

Oh boy[emoji46]

HOPEFULLY it'll go as the models that Mr P Bill are providing show and y'all will have a great cruise!

I'm still sweating it on ours though with what looks to be following.

The additional problem seems to be what's supposed to happen here in SC.

I know I'm a big fat baby, but I honestly don't know if I've got ANOTHER flood left in me.

Boating in and out to see the water rising every day while more and more gets destroyed is crazy...

Although I guess it's best to always remember ICBW.

Again I'll reiterate that I'm most thankful for the info the OP provides here. It's truly a Blessing to have someone to show us what the oftentimes confusing weather models actually mean.

 

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Leaving from NJ on the Anthem to Bermuda Saturday the 15th... If this hurricane travels up the coast I'm worried it will be cancelled.

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Leaving from NJ on the Anthem to Bermuda Saturday the 15th... If this hurricane travels up the coast I'm worried it will be cancelled.

 

Unless it is in NJ on Saturday... my bet would be the ship sails... but may head to New England instead of Bermuda. You might consider packing layers.... plus a hoodie... just in case you end up in a colder climate. After what happened to Anthem during a Feb cruise... they will likely want to avoid storm... I am assuming the storm will head north and not hit New England... but still a lot of time left... we are heading out of Florida Sept 28... so I am worried about the storms that follow. We sailed just after Irma hit... they did not cancel that cruise..... as many as 500 missed the sailing... we lucked out with a last minute flight...vs the 14 hour drive we had planned on.

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I have been watching Florence with interest as we have a flight from DC to NYC, on Wednesday, to board a sailing up to Quebec City on Thursday. Hopefully we can stay ahead of it and not be impacted. Thanks for starting this thread PelicanBill!

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Pelican,

 

We are scheduled to leave on a 5 night cruise to Bermuda tomorrow out of Baltimore. Although you said that Bermuda appears to be out of the direct strike from Florence, can you speculate to what the waves will be like and what will happen if hurricane does hit near the mid-Atlantic coast and we are prevented from getting back into the port. Thank you for your opinion and insight. Royal Caribbean has said nothing and when I call they reassure me that everything is fine and ask if I want to buy a drink package! 😳

 

The drink package will make it all better guaranteed! Well... I thought I read that the Baltimore sailing was going to be rerouted but had not yet announced where... please do report back if you hear something. I see two scenarios. You could go ahead to sea and try to get in to Bermuda, and there is a good chance that is possible now that the storm is so far south. You would circle back behind the storm. Or, you could sail south with plenty of time to reach the Bahamas, than return after the storm passes.

 

But I think Florence will be a problem for a Thursday return to Baltimore and you are very likely to get an extra day. Maybe two. 7 days for the price of 5? Pack extra clothes and meds and go for the drink package.

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I have been watching Florence with interest as we have a flight from DC to NYC, on Wednesday, to board a sailing up to Quebec City on Thursday. Hopefully we can stay ahead of it and not be impacted. Thanks for starting this thread PelicanBill!

 

You're welcome! Quite sure your flight and cruise are good... possible you will get tropical depression rain and wind in Quebec or on the way!

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Leaving from NJ on the Anthem to Bermuda Saturday the 15th... If this hurricane travels up the coast I'm worried it will be cancelled.

 

The storm could be passing near NYC about that time... just as one was doing 2 years ago in October as I boarded NCL Breakaway. We ended up waiting one night in NYC before departing to let it pass. I think it is possible you will be in a similar situation. Storms usually travel very fast and get swept up to the Canadian Maritimes. I doubt they would need to cancel - and they try very hard not to cancel cruises.

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Got our note from Carnival this afternoon that our Sunday sailing to Bermuda has been changed to the Caribbean. I'm a bit sad about it of course, as they are now going to Grand Turk, Half Moon Cay and Freeport. I just went there last year and was really looking forward to Bermuda. However, they are offering 25% off for our next cruise and not much I can do. I'm just glad we are still sailing.

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Bill - any thoughts on the 11pm update? Looks like she's forecasting further south than previous updates.

 

(I'm on the 9/9 Escape to Bermuda which was changed to Florida/Bahamas, which I'm secretly hoping could be changed back to a Bermuda itinerary)

 

John

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I wish the cruises would reconsider as Bermuda seems to be quite safe, although can't be 100% certain until Sunday.

Florence continues on track, although moving slowly now, faster later, so the path could change as it speeds up. But, The coast of SC needs to be very concerned and ready to evacuate as it is forecast to be Cat 3 and come in THURSDAY now. Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Hilton Head - all in the potential impact area.

 

I think It would move inland and sweep up toward PA and western NY (me!) quickly afterward if the forecast holds. A LOT of rain inland Friday and Saturday. I think the coastal areas (NYC, New England) are less likely to see effects now. Hard to tell yet but that's my prediction.

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Bermuda isn’t safe just not in direct line of the storm. Still expecting massive swells, rip currents etc that could endanger lives. I very much doubt ncl will reconsider. The only change I foresee for escape is them returning a day early from the Bahamas if Florence lingers for the return journey or potentially going north tomorrow - I doubt it though...

 

 

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Florence has become more cooperative with the forecasters and models the last few days so I have higher confidence in what we see. Slow speed has delayed landfall predictions to 2AM Friday, and the models are well aligned so the forecast is for landfall just north of the SC/NC border. As a Cat 3 or even 4 hurricane. Not good. Wilmington, NC is on that path, and all beaches north through Outer Banks are in extreme danger. Do not be surprised if the path continues to shift further north. That would spare Wilmingtom from the worst and increase dangers to Jacksonville NC and the Outer Banks.

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