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JamieLogical

Think the price will drop?

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4 minutes ago, dam64 said:

Ive been cruising NCL for years and I never book more than 3 months out! Why because its happened almost always that the price has dropped and I was out a lot of money!  I've learned that if the sailing is not a full ship before final the prices always drop! If you love that room keep it if not I would cancel and watch after the 60 day mark is when they tend to lower prices. Ive been getting great last minute deals doing this. I've booked up until a month out. Good luck. Check another website, can't mention the name here but you can see how full the ship is before hand.

 

I know exactly how many rooms are left in each category, except those that still have over 100 rooms available, because the site I use only shows up to 100 rooms in a category. As of this morning, there are still at least 616 balcony rooms available across all balcony categories. There are still 27 angled balconies left on decks 10 through 15 (not counting the one I'm booked in). So I really think canceling is super low risk as far as room choice is concerned. The main risk, as I see it, is that prices won't drop significantly enough to make up for the $60 difference in price between what I paid and the current price. I got a $100pp discount when booking because of unused airfare, but prices have dropped $40 since then, so current prices are $60 over what I paid. They would need to drop by more than that $60 in order to make cancelling worthwhile.

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It sounds like you want us to tell you to cancel and take the gamble, which means it sounds like what you want to do. Good luck and let us know how it works out!

 

Some people are more conservative and wouldn't want to take the risk, but you  don't seem as risk averse.

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It seems you will still have a cabin by the availability now, even if it's not the exact cabin.  I think I would wait for the prices to drop!  The 120 days out final payment will make me wait until last minute to book in the future.  I don't need or want NCL to have my $$ that far in advance!

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The angled balconies are usually the first to go.  If an angled one is important, keep the reservation.  But if any balcony will do, well then.........nah I would still keep what you have now.  NY cruises usually fill, and NCL knows that.   They give out a lot of CAS cruises from land casinos in spring too.  If the price drops, it will only do so extremely close to the date, and with your sister’s vacation issue, you will rebook long before then.

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11 hours ago, JamieLogical said:

 

I know exactly how many rooms are left in each category, except those that still have over 100 rooms available, because the site I use only shows up to 100 rooms in a category. As of this morning, there are still at least 616 balcony rooms available across all balcony categories. There are still 27 angled balconies left on decks 10 through 15 (not counting the one I'm booked in). So I really think canceling is super low risk as far as room choice is concerned. The main risk, as I see it, is that prices won't drop significantly enough to make up for the $60 difference in price between what I paid and the current price. I got a $100pp discount when booking because of unused airfare, but prices have dropped $40 since then, so current prices are $60 over what I paid. They would need to drop by more than that $60 in order to make cancelling worthwhile.

OMG.  Relax.  It's a few bucks which does not require that much energy.  Pay. Be done.  If you have extra energy, put that energy into a Charity. Everyone will benefit. Good grief.  Logical?

 

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32 minutes ago, OceanBlueWaters said:

OMG.  Relax.  It's a few bucks which does not require that much energy.  Pay. Be done.  If you have extra energy, put that energy into a Charity. Everyone will benefit. Good grief.  Logical?

 

So Agree with the above.  

Quit being so over concerned about possibly saving a few dollars (or the price could go up)... Just Pay ... Be Done .... and look forward to enjoying your cruise.  :classic_cool:

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On 12/6/2018 at 3:06 PM, Two Wheels Only said:

I think that you were happy with what you booked and were willing to pay that price. Make your payment and enjoy your cruise. 

 

Don't waste the time/energy on trying to squeeze a few dollars here or there to get the absolute best deal possible between final payment date and sail date. 

 

 

I agree 100%. I don't even look at prices after I book. I usually book about a year out and get the best deal I can which is usually on a holiday sale. I'm leaving on the Epic next Saturday and i couldn't tell you how much the room cost. Look forward to your cruise and don't stress out about the changes.

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Personally I would never book in advance anymore with NCL, Ive seen the prices drop like crazy. But thats me. We booked a Celebrity cruise 9 night  for spring and NCL can't beat the price we got! I find NCL has become too expensive and the service and food has declined over the last 2 years. We are looking forward to trying a new line. Good luck with your decision :-)

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On 12/7/2018 at 10:43 AM, JamieLogical said:

 

I know exactly how many rooms are left in each category, except those that still have over 100 rooms available, because the site I use only shows up to 100 rooms in a category. As of this morning, there are still at least 616 balcony rooms available across all balcony categories. There are still 27 angled balconies left on decks 10 through 15 (not counting the one I'm booked in). So I really think canceling is super low risk as far as room choice is concerned. The main risk, as I see it, is that prices won't drop significantly enough to make up for the $60 difference in price between what I paid and the current price. I got a $100pp discount when booking because of unused airfare, but prices have dropped $40 since then, so current prices are $60 over what I paid. They would need to drop by more than that $60 in order to make cancelling worthwhile.

Where do you see available inventory?

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2 hours ago, inna61 said:

Where do you see available inventory?

 

We aren't allowed to mention specific travel agency forums on this site, unfortunately. I found out about it through this thread:

 

 

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Is there anything left for a Haven bid @ the 80 day mark?

That’d be cruel to ruin sis like that on her first cruise.

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Posted (edited)

Well, it's been 27 days since I made my final payment on our BF stateroom. Prices have not shifted a single penny on any room category on the entire ship, which is mystifying. I cannot comprehend why NCL is keeping the prices the same when inventory is moving SOOOOO slowly. Here is the breakdown of inventory changes since I started tracking on November 9th:

 

  • Interiors: Inventory has decreased by 28 rooms. Currently 70% still available.
  • Oceanviews: Inventory has increased by 18 rooms. Currently 44% still available.
  • Balconies: Inventory has decreased by 21 rooms. Currently 52% still available.
  • Mini-suites: Inventory has decreased by 19 rooms. Currently 71% still available.
  • Havens: Inventory has increased by 1 room. Currently 83% still available.

In all, inventory has decreased by 49 rooms in the 56 days that I have been tracking it. That means they are selling less than 1 room per day. We are 93 days from sailing and there are currently still 1222 rooms available. Do the math! At 1 sale per day, they will still have over 1100 rooms available at sailing! Something has got to give. They absolutely have to lower prices in order to fill the ship!

Edited by JamieLogical

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

Well, it's been 27 days since I made my final payment on our BF stateroom. Prices have not shifted a single penny on any room category on the entire ship, which is mystifying. I cannot comprehend why NCL is keeping the prices the same when inventory is moving SOOOOO slowly. Here is the breakdown of inventory changes since I started tracking on November 9th:

 

  • Interiors: Inventory has decreased by 28 rooms. Currently 70% still available.
  • Oceanviews: Inventory has increased by 18 rooms. Currently 44% still available.
  • Balconies: Inventory has decreased by 21 rooms. Currently 52% still available.
  • Mini-suites: Inventory has decreased by 19 rooms. Currently 71% still available.
  • Havens: Inventory has increased by 1 room. Currently 83% still available.

In all, inventory has decreased by 49 rooms in the 56 days that I have been tracking it. That means they are selling less than 1 room per day. We are 93 days from sailing and there are currently still 1222 rooms available. Do the math! At 1 sale per day, they will still have over 1100 rooms available at sailing! Something has got to give. They absolutely have to lower prices in order to fill the ship!

Does that site you're using tell you the number of Sailaway (I.E. unassigned) cabins sold?  Unless you know that, you don't really have a good idea of how full the ship is.

Edited by CantanaLobo
clarify

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1 hour ago, JamieLogical said:

Well, it's been 27 days since I made my final payment on our BF stateroom. Prices have not shifted a single penny on any room category on the entire ship, which is mystifying. I cannot comprehend why NCL is keeping the prices the same when inventory is moving SOOOOO slowly. Here is the breakdown of inventory changes since I started tracking on November 9th:

 

  • Interiors: Inventory has decreased by 28 rooms. Currently 70% still available.
  • Oceanviews: Inventory has increased by 18 rooms. Currently 44% still available.
  • Balconies: Inventory has decreased by 21 rooms. Currently 52% still available.
  • Mini-suites: Inventory has decreased by 19 rooms. Currently 71% still available.
  • Havens: Inventory has increased by 1 room. Currently 83% still available.

In all, inventory has decreased by 49 rooms in the 56 days that I have been tracking it. That means they are selling less than 1 room per day. We are 93 days from sailing and there are currently still 1222 rooms available. Do the math! At 1 sale per day, they will still have over 1100 rooms available at sailing! Something has got to give. They absolutely have to lower prices in order to fill the ship!

 

 

Trust me, NCL (and all the other lines) know what they are doing.  It's only "mysterious" to the average Joe.  They know how to fill their ships and get the max dollars possible.   You've already paid, look forward to your cruise and don't get so wrapped up in this stuff.

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45 minutes ago, CantanaLobo said:

Does that site you're using tell you the number of Sailaway (I.E. unassigned) cabins sold?  Unless you know that, you don't really have a good idea of how full the ship is.

 

It doesn't. But I think it's safe to assume there aren't 1222 Sail Away rooms currently booked. Also, there are no Sail Aways for Havens and the Havens are currently 83% empty.

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Posted (edited)
On 12/7/2018 at 10:43 AM, JamieLogical said:

 

I know exactly how many rooms are left in each category, except those that still have over 100 rooms available, because the site I use only shows up to 100 rooms in a category. As of this morning, there are still at least 616 balcony rooms available across all balcony categories. There are still 27 angled balconies left on decks 10 through 15 (not counting the one I'm booked in). So I really think canceling is super low risk as far as room choice is concerned. The main risk, as I see it, is that prices won't drop significantly enough to make up for the $60 difference in price between what I paid and the current price. I got a $100pp discount when booking because of unused airfare, but prices have dropped $40 since then, so current prices are $60 over what I paid. They would need to drop by more than that $60 in order to make cancelling worthwhile.

 

How did you get$100 pp discount because of unused airfare.  when I booked I just didnt select it...but you can get a discount?

 

Edited by bskmom
corrected price

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1 hour ago, JamieLogical said:

Also, there are no Sail Aways for Havens and the Havens are currently 83% empty.

That’s because the other 17% haven’t realized what a ripoff Haven pricing is yet.

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40 minutes ago, bskmom said:

 

How did you get$100 pp discount because of unused airfare.  when I booked I just didnt select it...but you can get a discount?

 

 

Because back when I booked, the free airfare was not one of the standard "Free At Sea" options. It was a separate, stand-alone promotion for specific sailings. By opting out of it I was able to get the discount. Now that it's a standard "Free At Sea" perk, I don't think you would be able to get a discount for not picking it. You just pick a different perk instead.

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8 hours ago, JamieLogical said:

Well, it's been 27 days since I made my final payment on our BF stateroom. Prices have not shifted a single penny on any room category on the entire ship, which is mystifying. I cannot comprehend why NCL is keeping the prices the same when inventory is moving SOOOOO slowly. Here is the breakdown of inventory changes since I started tracking on November 9th:

 

  • Interiors: Inventory has decreased by 28 rooms. Currently 70% still available.
  • Oceanviews: Inventory has increased by 18 rooms. Currently 44% still available.
  • Balconies: Inventory has decreased by 21 rooms. Currently 52% still available.
  • Mini-suites: Inventory has decreased by 19 rooms. Currently 71% still available.
  • Havens: Inventory has increased by 1 room. Currently 83% still available.

In all, inventory has decreased by 49 rooms in the 56 days that I have been tracking it. That means they are selling less than 1 room per day. We are 93 days from sailing and there are currently still 1222 rooms available. Do the math! At 1 sale per day, they will still have over 1100 rooms available at sailing! Something has got to give. They absolutely have to lower prices in order to fill the ship!

 

Are you an engineer, @JamieLogical? I mean that in the best possible way (I am an engineer).

 

I have no idea what NCL is doing, but I’ve found that some corporations really don’t know what they’re doing, so maybe they don’t know either! 🙂

 

I’ve sort of decided that I’m not booking far out anymore. It seems like between 4-8 weeks out is the sweet spot for inventory and prices. We want to go on vacation with family later this year, and I’ve told them that I’ll just keep an eye on prices and let them know when I see a good deal, rather than booking far out. They’re retired, my wife is at home with our daughter for the time being, and my work is pretty flexible. I plan to bank the time off at work and just go when we see a good deal.

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1 hour ago, dcipjr said:

 

Are you an engineer, @JamieLogical? I mean that in the best possible way (I am an engineer).

 

 

I am not, but I have been a programmer/web developer for over 20 years and just now started a new job managing the online learning technologies and applications at the college I have worked at for the past 12 years.

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Last Sept.  we went on the 7 day  Sun to Cuba etc.  2 weeks before the cruise the price was $289 pp It was a family inside cabin with a sofa.  The PRICE INCLUDED the port charges and taxes.  We picked the dining package so we had to pay the tips only.  We also paid for the Visas to Cuba.  We had water, wine and strawberries in our room for free.  Once on board we found out that the daily tips were also included in that $289 pp price🤗 We couldn't buy insurance from the ship but bought it from another source.  We have been over 60 cruises and have never had a deal like this :classic_rolleyes: Still in shock.....

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It will start to fill at a faster rate.  Between now and your cruise, there are travel shows on the east coast that will generate bookings with promos, land casinos will hand out thousands of vouchers for casino bookings that will generate bookings, winter will come in full force and east coast people will be looking for early spring vacation getaways.  It happens every year.

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Posted (edited)

Great data points Jaime. I’ve been following the April 21st Escape sailing and have also noticed inflated pricing and lots of availability. I’m currently booked on the Carnival Vista and due to Carnival’s lienant 75 day final payment date I’m going to wait and see if pricing for the Escape sailing drops by then. If it does then I’ll just cancel the Carnival cruise with no penalty. If it doesn’t then I’m happy to sprinkle in a cruise on Carnival. However based on the data I’m guessing pricing on the Escape sailing will drop very soon.

Edited by cksv

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