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I Thought Celebrity's Changes Were Driven By Changing Demographics - Not True


mnocket
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Lets put a little information into this.  Market watch provides some very good information concerning cruise lines and their business.

 

The following link goes to information they collected from a demo group to create what they call is a cruise likely hood index.  This includes information by age, income, race and employment status.

https://cruisemarketwatch.com/market/

 

I also looked at a report of the US market breakdown by age and looked at the data and got the following percentages for 2016 and 2017.

              2016            2017

<12       8.41              8.70

13-19   6.10              6.02

20-29    9.11             8.94

30-39    11.15          11.27

40-49    14.97           14.71

50-59     18.23          18.01

60-69     19.12          18.98

70+        12.90           13.36

 

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2 hours ago, Mynki said:

I think you need to sail on a couple of true 6 star lines or even AZ or O and then come back and tell us if you believe X none suite class is a true premium product.

So now we have to find a six star line to get the same service and product of the former five star line? Why do we need to keep exaggerating our needs, I wonder?

 

Edited by K12Guy
wups.
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People love their generalities.  Cruise lines are all changing and taking advantage of incredible growth in technology and trying to suit it to a more diverse population.  Nothing is going to stay the same and expecting no change is foolish.  Some of it appeals to some of us and some to others.  You won't catch me paying $55 a head for Le Petit Chef,  but I'll like other things.  As a younger baby boomer, I know why my generation has greater numbers.  It relates to larger families.  Many of our moms didn't work and had time to raise larger families.  

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3 hours ago, BNBR said:

 

I'd probably agree with you! But this is just basic supply and demand.  I'd ask why NCL is able to get 3x the price compared to HAL.  And I bet Hal asks the same question.... The older crowd that they draw won't spend the money (as you alluded to) and their product only seems to draw that crowd.

 

That's a dying business model.  Literally... 

 

I'd add Option C.  Balcony on Symphony.  No need for a suite.  🙂

ncl doesn't get 3x hal per passenger HAL has a higher revenue per passenger ratio then NCL. tomorrow I can access the market watch data, but NCL has a ratio less then 1 HAl is in the 1.6 to 1.8 range. Celebrity and Princess is in the 1.4 area. so HAL generate more revenue per passenger in general then does NCL. the ratios are %industry rev/% passengers from Market Watch.

 

Since HAL tends to operate smaller ships they tend to be in demand. the smaller ship sizes also means a higher per passenger cost profile since smaller ships are less economically efficient, thus the drive to larger ship sizes in the mass market lines in general.

Edited by RDC1
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2 hours ago, RDC1 said:

Lets put a little information into this.  Market watch provides some very good information concerning cruise lines and their business.

 

The following link goes to information they collected from a demo group to create what they call is a cruise likely hood index.  This includes information by age, income, race and employment status.

https://cruisemarketwatch.com/market/

 

I also looked at a report of the US market breakdown by age and looked at the data and got the following percentages for 2016 and 2017.

              2016            2017

<12       8.41              8.70

13-19   6.10              6.02

20-29    9.11             8.94

30-39    11.15          11.27

40-49    14.97           14.71

50-59     18.23          18.01

60-69     19.12          18.98

70+        12.90           13.36

 

Interesting, thanks.

I wish there was more than 2 years of data so that trends would be evident.

The cruise Market Watch data is a bit confusing, or at least to me self-contradicting.  For instance the Cruise Likelihood breakout for employment status scores retired people very high and full-time workers as slightly negative. Seems right,  but then cruiser demographic table says only 20% of cruisers are retired while 63% work full-time.  I guess it's because there are a lot more  full-time workers than there are retired people.  It just seems odd that retired people are far more likely to cruise, but only represent 20% of the cruisers.  I'm also a Celebrity, Princess, Azamara cruiser so my perspective of cruise demographics is skewed.

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1 minute ago, mnocket said:

Interesting, thanks.

I wish there was more than 2 years of data so that trends would be evident.

The cruise Market Watch data is a bit confusing, or at least to me self-contradicting.  For instance the Cruise Likelihood breakout for employment status scores retired people very high and full-time workers as slightly negative. Seems right,  but then cruiser demographic table says only 20% of cruisers are retired while 63% work full-time.  I guess it's because there are a lot more  full-time workers than there are retired people.  It just seems odd that retired people are far more likely to cruise, but only represent 20% of the cruisers.  I'm also a Celebrity, Princess, Azamara cruiser so my perspective of cruise demographics is skewed.

the numbers are the numbers of the participants in the study by demographic, not anything to do with actual cruise demographics. so they tell you the makeup of the panel and how likely the members of the panel are to cruise. 

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1 hour ago, RDC1 said:

the numbers are the numbers of the participants in the study by demographic, not anything to do with actual cruise demographics. so they tell you the makeup of the panel and how likely the members of the panel are to cruise. 

 

The line that stood out for me was "full-time employed" whose likelihood of cruising was a negative vs. "retired" whose likelihood was a very long positive line.

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1 hour ago, RDC1 said:

ncl doesn't get 3x hal per passenger HAL has a higher revenue per passenger ratio then NCL. tomorrow I can access the market watch data, but NCL has a ratio less then 1 HAl is in the 1.6 to 1.8 range. Celebrity and Princess is in the 1.4 area. so HAL generate more revenue per passenger in general then does NCL. the ratios are %industry rev/% passengers from Market Watch.

 

Since HAL tends to operate smaller ships they tend to be in demand. the smaller ship sizes also means a higher per passenger cost profile since smaller ships are less economically efficient, thus the drive to larger ship sizes in the mass market lines in general.

 

I can't speak from much experience, given that I was only on an HAL Alaskan cruise for 3 days, but there may be some misconceptions about the line.  I'm sure 30 day cruises are quite different, but on our ship, it was predominantly full of baby boomers. Quite a few were British and Australians, plus a decent number of Gen X Asians.  We actually saw very few WWII Gen.  With HAL's new Rolling Stones Rock Venue, and increased focus on destinations, I doubt they will be sailing empty any time soon.

 

With people willing to fly overseas to sail HAL, I'm not surprised that they've got deeper wallets onboard over NCL.

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8 hours ago, BNBR said:

 

As I said, Royal refers to X as their Premium Luxury brand. Absolutely nothing you say will change that fact. You are entitled to your opinion that's its not really a luxury brand, no problem. 

 

I have no interest in Azamura. And X is a premium product. Just because another line is MORE premium doesn't mean X is not a luxury brand. Another analogy, since you love them so much, a 1 star Michelin restaurant is still a premium establishment, even if not at the same level as a 3 star. 

 

Your entire argument is that because there are better options, that X isn't premium. That makes absolutely no sense. Language barrier? I have no idea but I'm not sure why you are arguing something that's not even controversial. 

 

 

Royal can call it whatever they wish as that’s just marketing hype - just like ‘Modern Luxury’ was. X is a mass market product whether they say it or not in their literature. And, yes, we’ve sailed on the Royal mega ships and they do offer something completely different to X. What Edge is offering, according to the recent reviews on CC, is way off the mark on all accounts - apparently not appealing to either generation. 

 

Having only sailed on X once, you really need to experience a few more ships before you can definitely say that all areas are consistently superior to what you have experienced on any Royal ship. I for one can say that Oasis appeared far less crowded than our particular sailing on Reflection 😉.

 

You didn’t sail on X ships when there were far more activities, free too, during the day. That was prior to the huge cutbacks (down to 2 activity staff) and a daily full of ‘sales’ and upcharge events took over. Good grief, even trivia is a pay-for event on Edge (according to recent reviews). It may have once been their upscale version within their brand, but those lines have long been blurred.

 

We still cruise with our teenage children and would have thought that we’re one of their target groups, being both ends of the generations (so to speak). Obviously, they have missed the mark totally with Edge for us at this stage. We are sailing for 13 nights on Princess, which is very comparable to X (yes, another line you haven’t mentioned), for less than 7 nights in an oceanview with a drop-down window (or IV if you read their literature 😆) on Edge during the summer. My X placeholders are still waiting to be used, oh and I have one for Royal too.

 

Edited by villauk
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Celebrity is a mass market cruise line, getting more mass market by the year as RCL calls the shots.

 

If one is fortunate to have experienced the upper levels of the cruise line food chain, one can easily place Celebrity at the top of the mass cruise line heap, but a mass line none the less. 

 

Celebrity used to be Oceania lite up until 2012 when it started to decimate the brand. The corporate disinterest in the non suite class and major cutbacks reduced the overall quality of the brand.

 

Premium cruise lines like Oceania. Azamara, Viking, etc do not shrill for sales (current thread) and have art auctions etc. These activities are the calling card of the mass cruise lines. 

 

On my last Oceania cruise in Oct 2018, the number of former Celebrity patrons was significant. This follows the many postings by long time Celebrity CC posters about leaving Celebrity. Because that cruise was a significant disappointment, people in the computer lounge were busy booking Viking ocean cruises.  Did not see anyone booking a Celebrity cruise.

 

Fortunately there are many cruise lines, so if a cruise line looks positioned to fail you, move. Loyalty to a brand can work against you.

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13 hours ago, Mynki said:

 

I made the point that X is a mass market cruise line and that there is little difference with RCL. 

 

The first fact you need to understand is that Azamara who I assume you have heard of is RCLs premium brand. 

 

X might be slightly more upscale than RCL but both are mass market cruise lines. If you want to experience the best X has to offer you need to pony on up and book suite class. 

 

 

Agreed. As you and others have pointed out Celebrity is very much a mainstream brand, albeit positioned as premium mainstream as an attempted niche. This is a progression from prior to (and early) RCL ownership when it was positioned at a higher level.

 

I'm actually surprised any consider it greater; it doesn't appear they have much exposure to other brands.

Edited by The_Big_M
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There is no debate that Celebrity is a mass market cruise line.  Large ships with thousands of passengers.  So what?  Is that a bad thing? Some of us like mass market if it is done well.  That is what I choose to pay for when cruising.  I cruise RCCL and Celebrity and enjoy them both.  I personally might be bored on smaller ships.  I do plan to at least try Azamara or Oceania at some point to compare for myself. Each cruiser will decide what is the right product for them in the price/value equation.  No right or wrong answer.  By the way,  Azamara is a premium line and now Silversea is the higher end luxury line of RCI's offerings.

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For those of you old enough to remember, Father Guido Sarducci had a “5 minute university” which gave you all you need to know from a 4 year college education in 5 minutes.

Economics took 3 seconds.....

”supply and demand.”

 

seems pretty straightforward to me 

Edited by Pennstateman
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41 minutes ago, Pennstateman said:

For those of you old enough to remember, Father Guido Sarducci had a “5 minute university” which gave you all you need to know from a 4 year college education in 5 minutes.

Economics took 3 seconds.....

”supply and demand.”

 

seems pretty straightforward to me 

As a dad that paid for my son's PSU education for 4 years, I guess I got robbed!

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1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

There is no debate that Celebrity is a mass market cruise line.  Large ships with thousands of passengers.  So what?  Is that a bad thing? Some of us like mass market if it is done well.  That is what I choose to pay for when cruising.  I cruise RCCL and Celebrity and enjoy them both.  I personally might be bored on smaller ships.  I do plan to at least try Azamara or Oceania at some point to compare for myself. Each cruiser will decide what is the right product for them in the price/value equation.  No right or wrong answer.  By the way,  Azamara is a premium line and now Silversea is the higher end luxury line of RCI's offerings.

Nothing wrong with mass market cruise lines. Only positives in my opinion. After all they make the world more accessible to those who may never be in a position to sail a true six star line. 

Funnily enough we're on the same page. I like X and RCCL. I enjoyed the change of environment on RCCL very much because I got bored very easily on M class ships and I enjoyed new venues on Independence which are now very predictable on M asnd S class ships. 

I've just booked our first AZ cruise for later this year. I have high expectations but like the look of the itinerary and as I understand things AZ are focused much more on the destination which appeals. I'll try O when the right itinerary and deal presents itself. 

Finally I remembered 10 minutes after posting that RCL group had purchased Silversea so was waiting for that to be brought up. *chuckles*. 




But for those new to the brand I'd strongly suggest that people understand the following :-

Celebrity's marketing department over hype their product far more than other corporate companies do and that they'll write pretty much anything if they think it will get people onboard. If LLP and co told me the sky was blue, I'd have to look myself. 

Celebrity trades on its historical reputation to some extent. 

It is a two tier line. Suite class is a different product to non suite class and the latter is comparable to many other mass market lines, so bear that in mind when deciding what room to book. The former is aimed at those who would consider booking O and AZ. 

M class ships are now old and dated. This becomes very apparent when sailing other newer ships on other mass market lines and so if you have high expectations of an upscale experience in a regular cabin on an M class ship you might be disappointed. 

If entertainment is of significant importance to you then you might want to consider other lines. But if you're looking for a more relaxed and sedate sailing with a more seasoned crowd then it could well be what you are looking for. 

X is a good product and value can be had on both M and S class ships, just ensure you have realistic expectations about how 'upscale' actually is. 

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16 minutes ago, bEwAbG said:

Is Celebrity really following the traditional "supply and demand" in their pricing model, if they're choosing to sail with empty rooms on Edge rather than adjust their prices downward to fill them?


I think they'll be forced too. Already, recently released Apex fares are dropping.

apex.jpg

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But for those new to the brand I'd strongly suggest that people understand the following :-

Celebrity's marketing department over hype their product far more than other corporate companies do and that they'll write pretty much anything if they think it will get people onboard. If LLP and co told me the sky was blue, I'd have to look myself. 

Celebrity trades on its historical reputation to some extent. 

It is a two tier line. Suite class is a different product to non suite class and the latter is comparable to many other mass market lines, so bear that in mind when deciding what room to book. The former is aimed at those who would consider booking O and AZ. 

_____________________________________________________________________________

Mynki - powerfully said. Precise. For sure trading on the historical reputation which is what I and my family enjoyed.

 

Celebrity is the biggest boaster out there in the cruise world, thank you for saying what myself and others have been saying for a while. Which is why it is important to get the message to our various TA's - they will counteract the bull from Celebrity.

 

The existing cruisers are aware and some have departed.  Newbies have limited idea. Hence the importance of posting on CC, Trip Advisor.

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We have sailed with  X and Royal for 25 years.  Both used to provide a premium experience but in recent years they've engaged in a race to the bottom.   We recently did our first Viking sailing which was truly premium for not much more than an X cruise.  Next we're going to try Oceania and maybe Virgin.  There are a number of good alternatives to X.

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I had mentioned in a previous post that I was going to provide a list of the ratio's of various cruise lines   based upon % industry revenue/ % passenger market share.  I am attaching a list of the resulted sorted lowest to highest.  I would not that Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Disney and NCL tend to carry higher percentages of families than do the other cruise lines.  The number of children in 3-4 passengers per cabin would tend to result in lower ratio's than in cruise lines that are more adult, 2 per cabin focused.

The first number is % Passenger market share, the second is % industry revenue, the last is the ratio.

Note that over half of the passengers are on Carnival, Royal Caribbean, NCL and Disney. Lines with large numbers of families.

 

Cruise line revenue to passenger ratio.pdf

Carnival 22.0% 8.9% 0.40

Royal Caribbean 19.2% 14.0% 0.73

Costa 6.0% 4.8% 0.80

P&O 2.4% 2.2% 0.92

MSC 7.2% 6.8% 0.94

Disney 2.3% 2.2% 0.96

NCL 8.7% 8.4% 0.97

 

Princess 6.4% 9.1% 1.42

Celebrity 3.5% 5.3% 1.51

HAL 3.2% 5.6% 1.75

 

Viking 0.6% 1.3% 2.17

Cunard 0.7% 1.8% 2.57

Azamara 0.3% 0.9% 3.00

Oceania 0.5% 2.3% 4.60

 

Silversea 0.3% 1.5% 5.00

Seabourn 0.2% 1.2% 6.00

Regent 0.3% 1.9% 6.33

Crystal 0.2% 1.6% 8.00

 

If you look at the list you see some natural breaks.  

0-1 mass market

1-2 premium mass market

2-5 Premium

Above 5 Luxury Brands

 

Disney, due to the number of children is ranked a little lower and should be in the 1-2 ranged if adjusted for the number of children, NCL possibly as well.

Edited by RDC1
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I guess we are lucky....we've cruised a great deal in the past 15+ years, so we've seen most of the world, at least that portion you can see from sea ports 🙂  We have enjoyed Celebrity over the years, grumbling about the cutbacks, but still going back.  We've watched Celebrity HQ decide that their customer set were between 25 and 45....the loud music everywhere, the advertising...(Marco Polo)...and we've watched them focus completely on suite passengers (who cares about the unwashed masses)...but they now seem to have realized that their customer base is their customer base....the food has once again gotten a bit better, the red carpet at the ports has seemingly disappeared, the reserved section at shows has disappeared...so now it's a pleasant way to spend some time again.  Of course, we older folks frustrate HQ...we don't spend wildly on our "once a year" bash....we don't book the (overpriced) specialty restaurants unless we get a deal and we discovered long ago that we avoid Celebrity run tours wherever possible...we can get better tours for less by booking ourselves or with others found in the roll calls. 

 

We are not all that interested in the new ships...and the little bit I've sampled isn't inspiring us to book them at any sort of premium price.  We're quite happy on the M and S class ships....which hopefully they won't significantly damage in the "modernization"....translated that means they don't cut down on public space/bars or wall off currently public spaces for suite guests.  I'm not optimistic...especially given that they haven't made anything public that might impact bookings...and if it were a great upgrade, you can bet we'd be seeing all kinds of advertising.  Actually, it's really weird that they haven't made the plans public for the "modernization".....almost as if they are afraid to tell us what they are doing to the ships.

 

The perks (elite plus) do work...given a choice, we probably choose celebrity...but we have no other real affinity...Princess offers a very comparable cruise...Oceania/Azamara a better on ship experience.  But back to the first sentence....we are now booking  vacation condos/homes for a week or more, booking some river cruises....and doing less cruising.  I guess that's OK with celebrity....we clearly don't fit their desired mold....we just fit in with what we perceive is their current passenger demographics.

Edited by ghstudio
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Coming from Carnival, I think we're still pleasantly surprised by the mass market premium brands.  However, I don't like most of what I see from Edge, especially the creepy entertainment and IV cabins.  The "Revolution" looks like an upcoming cutback, especially for Aqua (more people in Blu, Spa cuts), plus the new shelving is not adequate for 14 day cruises.  Still, I'll try to not to throw the baby out with the bathwater, should these be real issues that remain.

 

I don't like premium pricing in general, but there's actually some great reposition deals on Oceania, Azamara, Windstar, and especially Cunard.  Viking Ocean, a bit more pricy.  We're also considering Avalon for River Cruising, and a Galopagos / Machu Picchu combo.

 

Edited by Stateroom_Sailor
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