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Oasis incident at Freeport Shipyard


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2 hours ago, twangster said:

Were did the bulk of the crew get put up in hotels?   Are there hotels for 2,000 on Grand Bahamas?

 

Maybe they are swinging by where ever the crew are to get them.

There aren't that many crew onboard. A lot of them went home last week. New crew members were suppose to board for the 4/7 sailing but I imagine they were contacted and will probably board in Barcelona instead.

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Well it looks like its heading straight to Cadiz, not heading south. 

 

Next stop Cadiz and a bit of metal work, some new glass, screens and a fix of some Azipod bearings all ready for some passengers to enjoy their holidays in May. Oh a bit of filler for the damage on the side and a quick lick of paint. 😊

 

Wooo hooo 

 

 

Screenshot 2019-04-08 at 10.21.33.png

Edited by scooby1
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The great circle route (shortest distance) between Freeport and Cadiz takes you well offshore the US east coat, while a ship leaving from Florida would run more along the coast to gain from the Gulf Stream.  The southern route projected on marinetraffic only adds 600 miles to the trip, but does give 1200 miles within short distance of port of refuge, should something happen during the first part of transit.  The southern route also gives better weather and skirts the north atlantic gyre current.  Not sure why this route is chosen, if it is the actual track, but there's no great conspiracy about it.  The fact that Allure is showing current position northeast of Eleuthera Island (2 minutes ago), but Oasis dropped out of range nearly two hours ago, heading due east, leads me to suspect she may not be headed down to the Antilles.

 

As for supplies, the food for the crew could easily have been brought to Freeport, or they will eat the "leftovers" from the passenger stores, that's not a major concern.  As for repair materials, remember that 90% of the stuff used to build the interior of a cruise ship comes from Europe, so there is no need to stop in PR for materials, nor would things have been shipped over, since that would have required a lot of high dollar air freight.

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The fact its underway and at good speed is a positive sign but there is still plenty to fix. 

 

The balcony of the rear cabins for 4-5 decks all had damage looking at photos again, one massively others its brushed across them.

Screen on the aqua theatre, remove and replace for new

Blunt trauma of a crane landing in the middle of the aqua theatre. - Seating, stage area and goodness knows what more

The side of the ship might get a look from the damage shown, not terrible but they might look at it

Underneath who knows, bearings to be replaced, more needed possibly its all guessing for now.

All the other jobs that were scheduled that might not have been done. 

 

They have 10+ days to plan exactly what they need to do to get all the people and materials to Cadiz for two weeks of fixing before it needs to be in Barcelona. Seeing what they can do in less time on other dry docks I'm pretty positive at the moment.

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9 hours ago, twangster said:

 

See post 213.

 

Analysts are watching and waiting to update their guidance.  

 

Oasis generated $404,354,000 million in revenue in 2018, or $1,107,780 million per day.  Losing $26M on the current cancelled sailings is a drop in the bucket and analysts admit as much, yet it's $26M in lost revenue, so far.  If, and that is a big if, they had to take her out of service for additional bookings then analysts would update their guidance.  

 

 

You also missed adding the vomit cruise with refund and FCC. There’s one less sailing of revenue and FCC added to your total. 

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10 hours ago, twangster said:

 

See post 213.

 

Analysts are watching and waiting to update their guidance.  

 

Oasis generated $404,354,000 million in revenue in 2018, or $1,107,780 million per day.  Losing $26M on the current cancelled sailings is a drop in the bucket and analysts admit as much, yet it's $26M in lost revenue, so far.  If, and that is a big if, they had to take her out of service for additional bookings then analysts would update their guidance.  

 

Too many zeros, and your numbers don't match the company's latest income statement. (#s in thousands)

Capture.PNG

Edited by orville99
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32 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

 

You also missed adding the vomit cruise with refund and FCC. There’s one less sailing of revenue and FCC added to your total. 

 

I'd guess that the TA would not have generated as much income per day as a typical Caribbean cruise. 

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13 minutes ago, orville99 said:

Too many zeros, and your numbers don't match the company's latest income statement. (#s in thousands)

 

 

Gross revenue before expenses.  I also didn't add the costs of FCC as pointed out because there is no basis to determine a factual number for that.  

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12 minutes ago, twangster said:

 

Gross revenue before expenses.  I also didn't add the costs of FCC as pointed out because there is no basis to determine a factual number for that.  

$404,354,000 million translates to $404.354 Trillion on a financial statement (when you add "million" to a number on a financial statement, you add six zeros - $404,354,000,000,000). RCL's actual Gross revenue before operating expenses (as filed with the SEC) is $4,231.642,000.

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Depending on the accounting method used, the FCC will likely be carried on the books as a liability until the credits are redeemed (unredeemed credits, of which there will be some, will eventually be wiped off the books). At the point of redemption, the FCC might be considered an incremental cost between the actual cost of carrying the guest and the value of the FCC, assuming there was any profit to be made on the base cruise fare to which the FCC is applied. It's probably an insignificant number even when considering FCC times ~6,000 pax. It seems that if anything the FCC will just eat a little bit into their profits and they can take a one-time write-down on the costs. I'm not an accountant so I'm just guessing. Maybe someone else has a better idea of how it actually works.

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1 hour ago, Pratique said:

Depending on the accounting method used, the FCC will likely be carried on the books as a liability until the credits are redeemed (unredeemed credits, of which there will be some, will eventually be wiped off the books). At the point of redemption, the FCC might be considered an incremental cost between the actual cost of carrying the guest and the value of the FCC, assuming there was any profit to be made on the base cruise fare to which the FCC is applied. It's probably an insignificant number even when considering FCC times ~6,000 pax. It seems that if anything the FCC will just eat a little bit into their profits and they can take a one-time write-down on the costs. I'm not an accountant so I'm just guessing. Maybe someone else has a better idea of how it actually works.

Accrual, which is one reason why FCC's have a defined termination date. They only have to carry the accrued liability on their books for a year from the issue date. That's also one of the reasons why they eliminated the old NCC program. Those liabilities stayed on the books until they were used (sometimes years after they were purchased). I still have four that I purchased back in 2014 left - and just used three older ones this year for 2020 cruises.

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5 minutes ago, orville99 said:

Accrual, which is one reason why FCC's have a defined termination date. They only have to carry the accrued liability on their books for a year from the issue date. That's also one of the reasons why they eliminated the old NCC program. Those liabilities stayed on the books until they were used (sometimes years after they were purchased). I still have four that I purchased back in 2014 left - and just used three older ones this year for 2020 cruises.

LOL I remember those wonderful NCCs - will you ever use the last one or hold it out there? 🙂

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11 minutes ago, ShillyShally said:

LOL I remember those wonderful NCCs - will you ever use the last one or hold it out there? 🙂

I'm slowly using them up. The three that I used this year were a hassle to redeem with the RCL phone reps. The original booking numbers were no longer in their systems, and they had to go to resolutions on each one to get a new booking number created and the proper credits applied.

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Hmm, the blue rectangular-shape hasn't reported a new position in about 8 hours. Apologize for my ignorance but does this mean it's probably out of range for the time being? It looks like it has a new route forecast that goes direct to Cadiz; no longer going south to Puerto Rico area. 

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15 minutes ago, orville99 said:

I'm slowly using them up. The three that I used this year were a hassle to redeem with the RCL phone reps. The original booking numbers were no longer in their systems, and they had to go to resolutions on each one to get a new booking number created and the proper credits applied.

I could see that, and at some point them making it next to impossible to use so better to use them as you can!

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1 minute ago, scottish67 said:

Hmm, the blue rectangular-shape hasn't reported a new position in about 8 hours. Apologize for my ignorance but does this mean it's probably out of range for the time being? It looks like it has a new route forecast that goes direct to Cadiz; no longer going south to Puerto Rico area. 

Yes, the AIS system relies on land based receiver stations, so once out of about 40 miles from a land based AIS station, marinetraffic will report it as "out of range" or just give the last received position.  You can pay to "upgrade" to the satellite version, but this still gives only a couple of updates per day.  If you think you know the approximate track of your ship, and how far it should have moved, there will sometimes be "shadow" blue arrows, which if you scroll over will say "passenger ship position received by satellite", and you can sometimes figure out which one is the ship you're trying to follow.

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1 minute ago, ShillyShally said:

I could see that, and at some point them making it next to impossible to use so better to use them as you can!

Bob clued me in to the difficulties with redeeming NCCs, and suggested that I start using them up. Boy was he right - it's a pain and will probably get worse over time.

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5 minutes ago, orville99 said:

Bob clued me in to the difficulties with redeeming NCCs, and suggested that I start using them up. Boy was he right - it's a pain and will probably get worse over time.

True, you just reminded me how hard it was to use one when they first changed the rules on them not all that many years back, even then they were hoping I didn't know the perks still tied to the one I held!

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10 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Yes, the AIS system relies on land based receiver stations, so once out of about 40 miles from a land based AIS station, marinetraffic will report it as "out of range" or just give the last received position.  You can pay to "upgrade" to the satellite version, but this still gives only a couple of updates per day.  If you think you know the approximate track of your ship, and how far it should have moved, there will sometimes be "shadow" blue arrows, which if you scroll over will say "passenger ship position received by satellite", and you can sometimes figure out which one is the ship you're trying to follow.

This is where she was 8 hours ago. Heading due east at ~18.4 knots.

Capture.PNG

Capture2.PNG

Edited by orville99
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1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

Yes, the AIS system relies on land based receiver stations, so once out of about 40 miles from a land based AIS station, marinetraffic will report it as "out of range" or just give the last received position.  You can pay to "upgrade" to the satellite version, but this still gives only a couple of updates per day.  If you think you know the approximate track of your ship, and how far it should have moved, there will sometimes be "shadow" blue arrows, which if you scroll over will say "passenger ship position received by satellite", and you can sometimes figure out which one is the ship you're trying to follow.

At 18.4 knots, do you think that all three pods are working properly?

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