Inflation rate vs Norwegian prices

[Twipenne]

 

On 6/28/2019 at 7:52 PM, david_sobe said:

Many cruisers were retirees who were not impacted by the economic crisis in 2009. 

 

You mean the same retirees who had their 401ks wiped clean?

 

[fshagan]

On 6/30/2019 at 1:24 PM, Twipenne said:

 

 

You mean the same retirees who had their 401ks wiped clean?

 

 

I don't know anyone who was "wiped clean". I lost 30% of the value in my IRA because I was about 80% equities then.

[4774Papa]

5 hours ago, fshagan said:

 

I don't know anyone who was "wiped clean". I lost 30% of the value in my IRA because I was about 80% equities then.

Didn't the Stock Market soar after the  real estate crash in 2008?

 

I didn't lose a penny, in fact, I gained.

 

If you check out inflation for the past 10 years, you will find it has been very low.    I don't see much of a connection between inflation and the higher prices that NCL and Celebrity are charging these days.

 

Both lines have found they can bundle promos, raise prices and make cruisers like us help pay for promos that we don't want.  This is one reason that we are moving more to Royal Caribbean, which has many non-price bundled cruises to offer at great prices.

[newmexicoNita]

On 6/28/2019 at 10:48 AM, FLAHAM said:

So it was a bargain 7 years ago and now it isn't. 

Well according to our investment councilor it is still a very good investment. We just had our semi annual meeting with her. Of course maybe you know better than she does and we should turn our port folio over to you? Have you compared this year's earnings of the 3 major mass marketed cruise lines. You may want to do that. 

[fshagan]

On 7/6/2019 at 3:55 AM, 4774Papa said:

Didn't the Stock Market soar after the  real estate crash in 2008?

 

I didn't lose a penny, in fact, I gained.

 

If you check out inflation for the past 10 years, you will find it has been very low.    I don't see much of a connection between inflation and the higher prices that NCL and Celebrity are charging these days.

 

Both lines have found they can bundle promos, raise prices and make cruisers like us help pay for promos that we don't want.  This is one reason that we are moving more to Royal Caribbean, which has many non-price bundled cruises to offer at great prices.

 

I think the prices have outstripped inflation as well, although I don't know if inflation is any kind of a marker for cruise lines as many of their costs aren't in the "consumer price index" that we talk about. I think they are increasing their margins and taking profit.

 

As to the stock market at the end of 2008, the indexes were all down about a third:

 

[mugtech]

On 6/30/2019 at 4:24 PM, Twipenne said:

 

 

You mean the same retirees who had their 401ks wiped clean?

 

In 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 I maxed out my contributions to our retirement accounts.  The 2008 30% drop in the Dow was a buying opportunity.  The 2008 investments were back by 2011 plus everything I bought those years at cheaper prices rose dramatically.  The only people who lost big time were those that pulled out of the market or those who were over 70 years old and were forced to take required minimum distributions every year.  I know a few who had to take RMD put the money into mutual funds and earned the losses back, unfortunately having to pay taxes on the earnings and the capital gains when eventually they were cashed in.

[roger001]

Any "for profit corporation" prices are based on maximizing those profits.  Inflation doesn't factor in.  It is all supply and demand, how can we get additional profit for our product.  How can we maximize profits for our shareholders.  And the consumer will purchase until the product doesn't provide value for the price being asked.   Not an inflation issue though.     I was too lazy to read all previous thoughts, so already said I'm sure.  

[GA Dave]

On 6/28/2019 at 10:02 AM, littlelulu01 said:

Vacation costs don’t necessarily follow inflation. They’ll make hay while the sun shines. 2012 we were in a pretty big recession.  I got a villa at the Fairmont Kea Lani for around $500/night in 2012. Today they’re $2500/night.  Our first Haven 2 bedroom on the Pearl Alaska in 2013 was $4200. Disney vacation club was selling for half what it is today. Right now folks are traveling so companies are trying to get what they can.  Alaska, Hawaii, Europe seems to be the most lucrative cruise markets. Something like a volcano erupting, hurricane, political unrest, war, terrorism...  brings prices way down.  The higher priced suites on ships, hotels... are often the rooms that see the deepest discounts in an economic downturn. 

 

Deals can can still be had.  The Joy Alaska had some great rates on Haven Alaska this year. The Jade Europe had some Haven prices that verged on reasonable for this year. When they moved the Pearl to Europe for this year Haven suites were really high but I see the prices going down now and suspect many Haven suites on the Pearl will end up going to upgrade advantage whereas the Jade pretty much sold out the season at list prices. We paid more than I’d like for our Jade Haven this year but it wasn’t too far outside the comfort window. 

 

Last year i really wanted a haven suite on the bliss alaska but prices were insane. We ended up with a mini suite.  Bid unsuccessful for Haven and ended up having a great time. I now know husband will have just as nice a vacation in non Haven so It’s no longer haven or nothing if traveling with him.

THIS!  Also, unemployment in the USA was 8.3% in 2012.  Now it is less than the governments definition of "full employment" (i.e., 4%).  It was at 3.6% nationwide in April of this year, and the latest jobs report showed more job openings than people to fill them in the USA.  And, the Dow Jones is up 14.84% YTD.  So, people have much more money to burn and all of the companies in the leisure businesses are trying to make up for their losses in the 2008 - 2011ish time frame (remember the airlines losing billions during that time?).

Edited July 8, 2019 by GA Dave

[4774Papa]

14 minutes ago, GA Dave said:

THIS!  Also, unemployment in the USA was 8.3% in 2012.  Now it is less than the governments definition of "full employment" (i.e., 4%).  It was at 3.6% nationwide in April of this year, and the latest jobs report showed more job openings than people to fill them in the USA.  And, the Dow Jones is up 14.84% YTD.  So, people have much more money to burn and all of the companies in the leisure businesses are trying to make up for their losses in the 2008 - 2011ish time frame (remember the airlines losing billions during that time?).

Good analysis.  Agree that with a better economy that more people will be traveling.   Competition is what keeps prices down.  That is why I always check several cruise lines prior to booking.

 

We have done river cruises and land tours and those prices are up as well.  

In planning for a safari in Kenya and Tanzania for 2020, I found a wide variety of pricing.  Of course, pricing depended on the number of days for the tour/safari as well as the level of accommodations.  Still, I have found a huge difference in pricing.

 

We have used Vantage World Travel for river cruises and land tours and like them, but their safari in Kenya/Tanzania was 17 days and almost $9000.   We didn't want to do that long a safari/tour and not for that amount per person.

 

I found other safaris that were shorter and over $10000 per person.

 

I found a safari for less than $900 but it advised that you had to bring  your own sleeping bag (sorry not me).

 

However, I found a couple of highly rated tour companies that others have recommended on other travel sites.  Great safaris for 8 days for about $4500 pp.

 

Interesting because we did a great Machu Picchu/Cusco/Sacred Valley tour with PeruAgency tours in March that cost us $799 per person.  The cruise company that we were on for a later cruise wanted $3800 for a tour that was not as long.  I found other similar tours for $1200 up to $2800.   Our tour was wonderful, we had a private guide every day and we were in 4 star hotels.

 

Love competition

[AmyJA]

Supply and demand "."

In the olden day (pre 2000's) there was two kind of ships.  Old people cruises and party people cruises.  Now the ship appeal is wider spread.

[mking8288]

These were prices for the Dawn in 2005, 7 days out of NYC, with Miami as the bonus stop, and Nassau for 1/2 day ... adjust for inflation, no big increases except for higher port fees & DSC and pre-Haven era.  And, without "Free at Seas" promotions to jack up the costs, just plain old OBC ... $25 for Insides, etc. 

 

 

 

Edited July 8, 2019 by mking8288

[sverigecruiser]

1 hour ago, mking8288 said:

These were prices for the Dawn in 2005, 7 days out of NYC, with Miami as the bonus stop, and Nassau for 1/2 day ... adjust for inflation, no big increases except for higher port fees & DSC and pre-Haven era.  And, without "Free at Seas" promotions to jack up the costs, just plain old OBC ... $25 for Insides, etc. 

 

 

 

 

The suite prices isn't mentioned there. They may have increased a lot.

[fshagan]

10 hours ago, mking8288 said:

These were prices for the Dawn in 2005, 7 days out of NYC, with Miami as the bonus stop, and Nassau for 1/2 day ... adjust for inflation, no big increases except for higher port fees & DSC and pre-Haven era.  And, without "Free at Seas" promotions to jack up the costs, just plain old OBC ... $25 for Insides, etc. 

 

 

 

 

We just paid $699 for a guarantee balcony (no perks) on the Breakaway for a 7 day eastern caribbean cruise from Miami. Looks like we did pretty well.

 

[sverigecruiser]

3 hours ago, fshagan said:

 

We just paid $699 for a guarantee balcony (no perks) on the Breakaway for a 7 day eastern caribbean cruise from Miami. Looks like we did pretty well.

 

 

So maybe only the suites have gone up a lot in price? I don't say that's the reason, or the only reason, but maybe the bidding system can be a part of it.....

[EaglesWin]

On 7/6/2019 at 6:59 AM, newmexicoNita said:

Well according to our investment councilor it is still a very good investment. We just had our semi annual meeting with her. Of course maybe you know better than she does and we should turn our port folio over to you? Have you compared this year's earnings of the 3 major mass marketed cruise lines. You may want to do that. 

 

They were referring to the Haven being a deal 7 years ago.

[fshagan]

19 hours ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

So maybe only the suites have gone up a lot in price? I don't say that's the reason, or the only reason, but maybe the bidding system can be a part of it.....

 

I think the general price has gone up. We got a pretty good deal with the $699 price, but it is sailaway (can't pick your cabin, no perks). As others have noticed to get the perks you always seem to add an additional $200 or so to the cruise price, and the next level up where you get perks and can choose your cabin was $899.

 

Doing the math makes the perks look like losers to me. Adding that $200 to the beverage package, along with the mandatory gratuities, puts that perk at about $340 per person for 7 days, almost $49 a day.  Breakeven is what, 6 or more drinks a day? I could never drink that much. There's the other value in the other perks, of course, so depending on what you can get, maybe the higher fare is worth it. But for us, a sailaway is the only way to cruise NCL now.

[perkydebrajean]

We did 11 night Southern Caribbean in 1 bedroom haven on the Pearl in December 2014.  Entire cruise (including prepaid gratuities) ran us $5,500 for the both of us.  Priced a similar cruise a couple of years ago, same time frame on same class of ship but was only a 10 night Southern Caribbean.  Same room was running just shy of $12,000 for two. 

 

I think they jacked the prices up once they started with all of the "free at sea" perks. 

[ighten]

I cant find it on google but I seem to remember there were some sites or blogs that recorded the "sailaway/guarantee" prices  for pretty much all cruise companies on itinerary release day - probably became too hard to maintain.

 

Probably one of the reasons practically all the companies have become so obsessed with baking on extras and perks is just to stop you doing that very thing.

 

At the end of the day though its just "is it what you think seems a fair price" for whats on offer..

 

I have to say though that the EU and UK moving on to/back to  sailaway with the option to add perks at  low flat rate has made things a lot cheaper than the old all inclusive system (when they brought that in prices jumped way more than the value of the perks)(though of course they hide that by making the cash value of the perk artificially high - same trick is now being done with a la carte prices to make the perk seem superb value)

 

 

Edited July 12, 2019 by ighten

[GA Dave]

On ‎7‎/‎9‎/‎2019 at 11:54 PM, fshagan said:

 

I think the general price has gone up. We got a pretty good deal with the $699 price, but it is sailaway (can't pick your cabin, no perks). As others have noticed to get the perks you always seem to add an additional $200 or so to the cruise price, and the next level up where you get perks and can choose your cabin was $899.

 

Doing the math makes the perks look like losers to me. Adding that $200 to the beverage package, along with the mandatory gratuities, puts that perk at about $340 per person for 7 days, almost $49 a day.  Breakeven is what, 6 or more drinks a day? I could never drink that much. There's the other value in the other perks, of course, so depending on what you can get, maybe the higher fare is worth it. But for us, a sailaway is the only way to cruise NCL now.

Personally, I think the perks are a pretty good value for my DW and I.  On our first NCL cruise, way back in 2001, our bill at the end was over $750.  We did not buy any big souvenir items on the ship, that was mostly for drinks, etc.  Putting that in today's dollars, the drink package included in the cabin price looks like a pretty good deal to me.  JMHO.

[Budget Queen]

As always supply and demand,  and profits set prices.   People WILL pay it.    For me cruises have never been cheaper.   Last minute Sail away rates are superb.   I just picked up another one yesterday-  at a significant discount.   

[ighten]

On 7/12/2019 at 4:00 PM, Budget Queen said:

As always supply and demand,  and profits set prices.   People WILL pay it.    For me cruises have never been cheaper.   Last minute Sail away rates are superb.   I just picked up another one yesterday-  at a significant discount.   

I agree - for ourselves sailaway is as cheap as ever and there are great last minute deals.. Add to that the fact the perk will only cost £99 per week instead of a 750$ bar bill then I dont think its ever been as good.

 

Also just booked two more offers - as I said earlier the change from all inclusive to add the perk has made a vast difference downwards in the UK not only to the initial price but to the end of cruise bill (or in fact no bill )