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Don't expect future cabin prices to fall

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“Continued robust demand for our global brands along with our strong consumer focused value proposition, honed revenue management practices and best guest marketing strategy, enabled us to continue to drive ticket pricing higher which, when coupled with strong onboard revenue performance, resulted in record second quarter results,” said Frank Del Rio, president and chief executive officer of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.

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That my friend is why I have booked all my cruises the past few years two years in advance. Whether it was NCL, Carnival, MSC, Celebrity ...... Prices went up and not one of ours went down the past few years. I expect prices to rise as well as the nickel and dining even further. My Bliss Panama Canal sailing this past April went up $2000 from booking. My Sun cruise in a couple weeks went. My Celebrity Cruise next April is up $1700 from booking. I scour all cruise websites for deals and I’ll tell ya, deals are getting tougher and tougher to find unless you book last minute or way off season. What was high a few years ago would be a steal now.

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True for popular ships and routes... but bargains still exist when ships don't sell out at 4 months.  I believe one of the reasons final payment moved to 120 days is to give them more time to reduce prices and drive sales for sailings that aren't close to selling out.  I've seen some excellent deals. Last November the Breakaway repositioning 15 day from NYC to New Orleans could be had for the price of a 7 day cruise... solo supplements were waived... and there are fall cruises galore with deals because of the Cuba adjustments.

 

A full ship at sale prices is still better than one sailing at 70% full.  It is well know they make more profit on the extras and onboard spend than they do from the passenger tickets.

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1 hour ago, tallnthensome said:

That my friend is why I have booked all my cruises the past few years two years in advance. Whether it was NCL, Carnival, MSC, Celebrity ...... Prices went up and not one of ours went down the past few years. I expect prices to rise as well as the nickel and dining even further. My Bliss Panama Canal sailing this past April went up $2000 from booking. My Sun cruise in a couple weeks went. My Celebrity Cruise next April is up $1700 from booking. I scour all cruise websites for deals and I’ll tell ya, deals are getting tougher and tougher to find unless you book last minute or way off season. What was high a few years ago would be a steal now.

In complete agreement with you......we too book out when ship itineraries open, and have not had a price drop in years now.  The prices have ALL only gone way UP from when we originally booked.  None have even dropped after final payment, even with the glut of so many new BIG ships out there....prices are just increasing and increasing - good for the cruise lines, bad for all of us looking for a price drop.  I guess our new mantra has to be to 'book at a price that you feel is fair and  be happy with that price' cuz you are most likely not going to it drop any longer!  Boo Hoo

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Prices fall on discounter sites all the time whether Mr. "FDR" wants you to believe otherwise or not.

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If it's a limited itinerary (like a Panama Canal cruise) or during peak times, you're right they normally don't decrease. But I got a cruise on Bliss for hundreds less when I paid 33 days out. My friend and I just booked a Sun cruise 12 days out and it was $100+ cheaper than a month ago and $250+ cheaper than before final payment. My cruise for March is also about $200 cheaper than when I booked it back in March - crossing my fingers that the itinerary changes cause cancellations and it drops again. All occurred in the last 5 months. 

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There are bargains now for end of summer sailing on certain routes, ports & itineraries - it is well known, open "secret" that some of the one-way, repositioning will not sail full (unless it's an inaugural) and if one has flexible travel options & can drive, use airline miles for travel - great deals still exist at SailAway prices; and, yes - you take your chances & bet on not getting a poor cabin location, deck, etc. (and, don't want/need/care for the extra "freebies" ... )   

 

Deals out of Boston & NY on their official website, don't even need to use online discounted T/A (well, if they got extra OBC & perks, and you know whether they participate in the Upgrade Advantage game scheme & play on that ...) - not that difficult to book something for $50 p/p nightly on an Inside or OV.  Deals extend into October & November on select Bermuda sailings (now, who wants to 4 days round-trip with 8 hours at Dockyard ?? - cheap !)  And, the CruiseNext Double Up booking on any staterooms thru 8/31 (I say more than 50:50 chance of being extended beyond thru Labor Day) 

 

We happened to not mind sailing on the "older" Dawn/Jewel class ships without all that extra bells & whistles (translation = more opportunities for extra onboard spendings or charges ... LOL) and lowered prices reflected - a little bit of supply & demand. 

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Posted (edited)

Not expecting near term pricing to fall, but based on the headlines in today's Money section on MSN, I would say that they could be falling in the future.

"Bankruptcy-related job losses invoke grim reminders of Great Recession"

"Recession odds rise as economists cut growth estimates"

"Warren Buffett sends a silent warning to investors"

Edited by GA Dave

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2 hours ago, Son of a son of a ... said:

“Continued robust demand for our global brands along with our strong consumer focused value proposition, honed revenue management practices and best guest marketing strategy, enabled us to continue to drive ticket pricing higher which, when coupled with strong onboard revenue performance, resulted in record second quarter results,” said Frank Del Rio, president and chief executive officer of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.

So how will this affect you?  This statement just tells me that NCL and the cruising industry are doing well.  I am happy that I have held stock in NCL, RCL, and Carnival for several years.  Although the stocks are all off their highs, I am still plus on my investments.  And a $100 OBC for each cruise doesn't hurt either.  As for raising prices this will not affect me with my future sailings.  I will continue to book last minute deals with NCL because they give me my best value.

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My studio cabin on a spring 2020 transatlantic cruise is currently $1,000 more than when I booked it last December.  

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1 hour ago, Bootman4U said:

Prices fall on discounter sites all the time whether Mr. "FDR" wants you to believe otherwise or not.

 

They also go up quite often. It is a gamble as to when to book and what type of a cabin to book. Don't be so sure there are super cheap fares out there. Las time I checked out Oct cruise was actually highet than what we paid when booking it 6 moths ago 

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The 20% off sale is not as wonderful as you might think for NEW bookings...clearly if you have a booking and can rebook under it and save $$ of course-but-I had booked two cruises within a day or two of the announcement.  The Bliss Jan 5 NYC W. Caribbean has sold out CY PH which I booked, and the rooms that usually sell for less are MORE than I paid; the Star Summer Solstice 2020 we have an SF Aft PH suite and it’s gone up $500 since we booked, even after the 20% discount...so prices have been creeping up under the cover of the discount.

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Posted (edited)

You know the old saying  "What goes up, must come down"

With so many mega ships going around, its bound to happen at some point.  However, people are cruising more than ever. Jut think, NCL has 3 ships (2 mega ones) currently sailing Alaska.  Have you seen the Alaskan prices?

I am waiting till the novelty of Alaska wears off to scratch it off my bucket list 😆

 

In the near future it could be something like:
inside cabin:  one arm

Balcony cabin:  one arm, one leg

Haven:  one arm, two legs, plus 3 fingers

Deluxe owners suite:  2 arms, 2 legs plus future born

3 cheese ziti all extra of course

Edited by david_sobe

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This is why we no longer sail NCL. Although NCL is our line of choice,  the higher prices have driven us to RCCL and Carnival. I always check  NCL first, but I can no longer justify the price even with the Free at Sea perks. 

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It all goes to show that you have to keep your eye on prices for cruises that are on your wish list.    If you have the flexibility of last minute bargains then fine.  If not, book early and get the cabins you want.  

 

I have just moved to offices where our staff room has views of cruise ships in port.  Darn it that makes me want to book a cruise every day.  Today was Celebrity Silhouette.  Looked so much nicer than my reheated chickpea curry.  

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9 minutes ago, david_sobe said:

Y. Jut think, NCL has 3 ships (2 mega ones) currently sailing Alaska.  Have you seen the Alaskan prices?

I am waiting till the novelty of Alaska wears off to scratch it off my bucket list 😆

 

Alaska prices compared to what we paid last year ...   !!!!!!

 

We had a great cruise (on Princess) and I would not change the experience for the world.  I just wish it was not such a lonnnnnngggg flight to Alaska from Gibraltar because I would be back in a heartbeat at current prices.  

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This is true of all vacation costs. Look at how expensive it is to fly now too.

Vacation costs are outpacing inflation, and certainly outpacing any income increases.

 

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OMG NO!  A company whop is in business to make money is trying to maximize revenue!  Tell me this is not true.  Just when we were all beginning to think NCL was going to make all cruises free...  🙄

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Sorry to be a naysayer, but prices to go down. I had a Christmas sailing booked which dropped a few times before the cutoff and I was able to get price adjustments. Right now, prices are very low for winter months for some reason, so I doubt they'll go much lower. The US Thanksgiving Encore cruise is very low for a studio cabin for some reason right now.

 

I have also seen them go up, of course - but yes, they do go down.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, richg35 said:

This is true of all vacation costs. Look at how expensive it is to fly now too.

Vacation costs are outpacing inflation, and certainly outpacing any income increases.

 

 

I actually find it to be cheaper to fly now than ever. You just have to be flexible and OK with flying on "discount" airlines.

 

We took a flight in May, non-stop Paris - Orlando on Norwegian Air, 2 checked bags, 2 carry on bags, assigned seats and dinner/breakfast for less than $600. For 2 adults. That's the total price, not for each adult. And it's not an uncommon price to score nowadays. 

 

Also took a non-stop from Orlando - London Gatwick on Thomas Cook, and it was closer to the $500 range for 2 adults with all of the add-ons included. 

 

5 years ago you would have never found prices like that. 

Edited by CruisingNole

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15 minutes ago, CruisingNole said:

 

I actually find it to be cheaper to fly now than ever. You just have to be flexible and OK with flying on "discount" airlines.

 

We took a flight in May, non-stop Paris - Orlando on Norwegian Air, 2 checked bags, 2 carry on bags, assigned seats and dinner/breakfast for less than $600. For 2 adults. That's the total price, not for each adult. And it's not an uncommon price to score nowadays. 

 

Also took a non-stop from Orlando - London Gatwick on Thomas Cook, and it was closer to the $500 range for 2 adults with all of the add-ons included. 

 

5 years ago you would have never found prices like that. 

 

It costs anywhere between $2500-$3000 to fly from NYC to Orlando for a family of 5. Four years ago we started driving instead.

 

I have three kids, so we can only vacation during school breaks. Travel during these periods is inherently expensive because demand is high, but this is still an incredible increase over just 10 years ago or so. Back in '06 or '07, my wife and I (pre-kids) flew to Orlando for something like $99 round trip each on Delta Song.

 

There are certainly deals to be found if you can travel last minute and are very flexible, but many people, especially families, don't fall into this bucket.

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2 hours ago, newmexicoNita said:

 

They also go up quite often. It is a gamble as to when to book and what type of a cabin to book. Don't be so sure there are super cheap fares out there. Las time I checked out Oct cruise was actually highet than what we paid when booking it 6 moths ago 

What category did you book?

 

The Oct 13th Breakaway sailing is starting at $449pp inside Sailaway / $559 with one perk.  Balcony $649 Sailawy /$929 with all perks include (before gratuities).  I consider those to be on the cheap side.

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6 hours ago, tallnthensome said:

That my friend is why I have booked all my cruises the past few years two years in advance. Whether it was NCL, Carnival, MSC, Celebrity ...... Prices went up and not one of ours went down the past few years. I expect prices to rise as well as the nickel and dining even further. My Bliss Panama Canal sailing this past April went up $2000 from booking. My Sun cruise in a couple weeks went. My Celebrity Cruise next April is up $1700 from booking. I scour all cruise websites for deals and I’ll tell ya, deals are getting tougher and tougher to find unless you book last minute or way off season. What was high a few years ago would be a steal now.

I'm two weeks about of a cruise I booked 18 months in advance.  Prices for my cabin type have yet to drop lower than what we paid.

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18 minutes ago, Mike_DeA said:

What category did you book?

 

The Oct 13th Breakaway sailing is starting at $449pp inside Sailaway / $559 with one perk.  Balcony $649 Sailawy /$929 with all perks include (before gratuities).  I consider those to be on the cheap side.

We have balcony with all perks included and $100 OBC for $859 and yes, it is the Breakaway on the 13th. I agree with you the rates you are seeing are also very good. 

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4 hours ago, GA Dave said:

Not expecting near term pricing to fall, but based on the headlines in today's Money section on MSN, I would say that they could be falling in the future.

"Bankruptcy-related job losses invoke grim reminders of Great Recession"

"Recession odds rise as economists cut growth estimates"

"Warren Buffett sends a silent warning to investors"

 

Yep.

 

It's been a great 10 year run economically, and booking ahead of the curve was the deal.

 

We're almost complete in long ahead bookings, and with the election dynamics, China, Iran, etc. we've abandoned long-term ahead bookings and will go last minute.

 

They (major CL's) have built so many new ships, and so many new ones are on the way, it is a classic set up.  With economic consequences, 'demand could really cause the CL's a real financial problem.

 

We'll see.  Hope we're wrong.

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