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PelicanBill

Atlantic storm Dorian

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8 minutes ago, bobsfamily said:

Thanks! I wonder if I should book a car for Tuesday morning hoping the ship ports a day late? Just in case, 7 hours home...

watch out for those one-way fees!

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Just called NCL, they said for 8/29 NCL SUN

 

We expect everything be alright and at this moment we don't expect any changes to the itinerary smh!

I'm kinda scared... hopefully they're not being reckless putting all of us 2500 people in danger for their ability to make money. 

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2 minutes ago, gizmoneil said:

Just called NCL, they said for 8/29 NCL SUN

 

We expect everything be alright and at this moment we don't expect any changes to the itinerary smh!

I'm kinda scared... hopefully they're not being reckless putting all of us 2500 people in danger for their ability to make money. 

I think it is a fair assumption that they have far more to lose than 2,500 passenger's money if something bad were to happen. I would trust what they determine.

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5 PM update, latest trajectory a bit more south

 

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

The cloud pattern has become better organized with a hint of an eye
on high resolution satellite imagery and plenty of convective bands.
In addition, earlier data from a reconnaissance plane and surface
observations from St. Thomas as Dorian moved by yield an initial
intensity of 70 kt.  Now that the hurricane has developed an inner
core with a 15 to 20 n mi eye, strengthening is more likely. Given
the favorable environment of warm waters and low shear prevailing in
the western Atlantic, the NHC forecast calls for a marked
intensification, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity in 72
hours, and keeps it at that intensity until landfall. This
forecast is very close to the intensity consensus, the HCCA model,
and the SHIPS guidance.

Satellite and earlier reconnaissance plane fixes indicate that
Dorian has been moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 12
kt.  The cyclone is heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic
subtropical ridge, and this northwest motion should continue for the
next 24 to 48 hours. However, after that time, all the global models
continue to build a strong ridge over the western Atlantic, and this
flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more to the west-northwest
toward Florida. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend,
a powerful hurricane will be near or over the Florida peninsula. The
new NHC track forecast is a little bit to the south of the previous
one, given that global models have a stronger ridge to the north and
the track models show more of a westward motion.  Users are reminded
not to focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track
error is around 200 miles.

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THIS LAST LINE got my attention 

"

Users are reminded
not to focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track
error is around 200 miles."

Sheesh.... 

 

Its going to be a wet Labor Day weekend and certainly impact embarkations (wet)

Any embarkations tom or Fri are fine... imho too early to know about Sat/Sun

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1 hour ago, PelicanBill said:

watch out for those one-way fees!

Well the track changed and is below PC and looks like a direct Orlando airport hit... wonder how much further south it will now go? Actually worse for PC...

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Fingers also crossed for Fort Lauderdale on Saturday.. I felt better after the report this morning.. this one not so much.

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Having never been in any kind of major storm (I live in Arizona) can I ask any of you that have to help me. I’m not only worried about my cruise anymore I’m more worried about taking my

kids to a place that has a CAT 3 Hurricane on its way. Have a hotel at cocoa beach should we move more inland? What do you do?

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2 hours ago, gizmoneil said:

Just called NCL, they said for 8/29 NCL SUN

 

We expect everything be alright and at this moment we don't expect any changes to the itinerary smh!

I'm kinda scared... hopefully they're not being reckless putting all of us 2500 people in danger for their ability to make money. 

Remember, they will always say sailing as planned, no changes... until the changes are announced. Sometimes after you board,  Many of us have been there!

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Just now, PelicanBill said:

Remember, they will always say sailing as planned, no changes... until the changes are announced. Sometimes after you board,  Many of us have been there!

I understand that but if there is Cat 3 hurricane at Port Canaveral on Late sunday early Monday. How do we get back? What happens to our flight ? 

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25 minutes ago, Traciewatson said:

Having never been in any kind of major storm (I live in Arizona) can I ask any of you that have to help me. I’m not only worried about my cruise anymore I’m more worried about taking my

kids to a place that has a CAT 3 Hurricane on its way. Have a hotel at cocoa beach should we move more inland? What do you do?

Are you driving? Can you cancel? Many chains will move you inland w/o a hassle. What day/s do you plan to be there? I used to live on a barrier island. It is better not to stay on the coast. 99 out of 100 times you would be perfectly safe but, inland is better. It all depends WHERE the final landfall occurs and it is still too early to say for sure. I have gone through lots of hurricanes but they can be unpredictable. Inland, even if it come right to you-in a regular strong building, it is just fine. Coastal flooding and limited roadways along the coast are not good.

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On 8/27/2019 at 3:52 PM, bobsfamily said:

Sometimes cruise lines have a 1 night "cruise to nowhere" and that's what happens, they go out, cruise around for the night and return the next day. No ports at all.

 

Cruises to nowhere haven't been allowed for a while now. They'd have to make a stop in another country somewhere.

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10 minutes ago, pjs9876 said:

Are you driving? Can you cancel? Many chains will move you inland w/o a hassle. What day/s do you plan to be there? I used to live on a barrier island. It is better not to stay on the coast. 99 out of 100 times you would be perfectly safe but, inland is better. It all depends WHERE the final landfall occurs and it is still too early to say for sure. I have gone through lots of hurricanes but they can be unpredictable. Inland, even if it come right to you-in a regular strong building, it is just fine. Coastal flooding and limited roadways along the coast are not good.

We are flying from Phoenix, AZ to Orlando, FL Friday and have reservations at the LaQuinta in CoCoa Beach. We are booked for Harmony 9/1 out of Port Canaveral.  RCCL has given us no clarity on them canceling at this time so still not sure what I’m going to do. I will go ahead and make reservations at a hotel near the airport in case. Thanks so much! 

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All right so many of you have seen the 5pm update today (Wednesday.)

Dorian is now a hurricane.  Expected to get very strong, category 3 at landfall.

The track flattened out westward at Florida landfall and shifted back a little south again.

 

Track comes in below Melbourne and continues into Orlando remaining a hurricane well inland, and out to the gulf, strength very hard to say.  This could still change again, although now we have only 3 1/2 days left so variance is reducing.  

 

The storm is getting bigger. Area of effect with tropical storm winds or greater could be 100 miles across. That does NOT reach Fort Lauderdale and Miami if the track stays where it is.  If it shifts south again they come back into risk.  So Port Canaveral is the only port at risk for now. 

 

All cruise stops in the Bahamas and Turks & Caicos will be canceled for days - that's the only thing sure still.

 

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7 minutes ago, Traciewatson said:

We are flying from Phoenix, AZ to Orlando, FL Friday and have reservations at the LaQuinta in CoCoa Beach. We are booked for Harmony 9/1 out of Port Canaveral.  RCCL has given us no clarity on them canceling at this time so still not sure what I’m going to do. I will go ahead and make reservations at a hotel near the airport in case. Thanks so much! 

If the storm track and strength holds: Cocoa Beach would be seeing evacuations. So sorry this is hardest for you and others heading to Port Canaveral. Hopefully the cruise lines are focused on this area now and will issue guidance tomorrow.  LOTS of people are making reservations inland right now in advance of expected evacuations based on the news today.

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3 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

 

 

The storm is getting bigger. Area of effect with tropical storm winds or greater could be 100 miles across. 

 

 

Oh no.  That's not good.

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19 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

All right so many of you have seen the 5pm update today (Wednesday.)

Dorian is now a hurricane.  Expected to get very strong, category 3 at landfall.

The track flattened out westward at Florida landfall and shifted back a little south again.

 

Track comes in below Melbourne and continues into Orlando remaining a hurricane well inland, and out to the gulf, strength very hard to say.  This could still change again, although now we have only 3 1/2 days left so variance is reducing.  

 

The storm is getting bigger. Area of effect with tropical storm winds or greater could be 100 miles across. That does NOT reach Fort Lauderdale and Miami if the track stays where it is.  If it shifts south again they come back into risk.  So Port Canaveral is the only port at risk for now. 

 

All cruise stops in the Bahamas and Turks & Caicos will be canceled for days - that's the only thing sure still.

 

Scary we're literally on flight right now to Melbourne! Should we just go back tomorrow morning ? Flight back out to michigan if that's possible 😕 will the cruise refund us?

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20 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

All right so many of you have seen the 5pm update today (Wednesday.)

Dorian is now a hurricane.  Expected to get very strong, category 3 at landfall.

The track flattened out westward at Florida landfall and shifted back a little south again.

 

Track comes in below Melbourne and continues into Orlando remaining a hurricane well inland, and out to the gulf, strength very hard to say.  This could still change again, although now we have only 3 1/2 days left so variance is reducing.  

 

The storm is getting bigger. Area of effect with tropical storm winds or greater could be 100 miles across. That does NOT reach Fort Lauderdale and Miami if the track stays where it is.  If it shifts south again they come back into risk.  So Port Canaveral is the only port at risk for now. 

 

All cruise stops in the Bahamas and Turks & Caicos will be canceled for days - that's the only thing sure still.

 

Scary we're literally on flight right now to Melbourne! Should we just go back tomorrow morning ? Flight back out to michigan if that's possible 😕 will the cruise refund us?

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2 minutes ago, gizmoneil said:

Scary we're literally on flight right now to Melbourne! Should we just go back tomorrow morning ? Flight back out to michigan if that's possible 😕 will the cruise refund us?

When does your cruise sail?  The cruise line won't reimburse air unless you booked it through them and they change it.  Otherwise it's trip insurance or wait for the good will of the airline. They will start waiving change penalties soon too.

 

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8 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

When does your cruise sail?  The cruise line won't reimburse air unless you booked it through them and they change it.  Otherwise it's trip insurance or wait for the good will of the airline. They will start waiving change penalties soon too.

 

Tomorrow at 4pm from PC

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5 minutes ago, gizmoneil said:

Tomorrow at 4pm from PC

I didn't book flights through NCL but I bought their travel protection. Is that the travel insurance you speak of?

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Weather is hot and sunny in Orlando (well it was today earlier). It will be fine until hurricane gets much much closer. Surf will pick up as the days go by. Tomorrow at 4 will be a lovely sail away. I have sailed when hurricanes are out "there". The ship will move where the storm is not. Take sea sick prevention pills (I take Bonine) before any motion. My entire family has been fine!  

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53 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

If the storm track and strength holds: Cocoa Beach would be seeing evacuations. So sorry this is hardest for you and others heading to Port Canaveral. Hopefully the cruise lines are focused on this area now and will issue guidance tomorrow.  LOTS of people are making reservations inland right now in advance of expected evacuations based on the news today.

Is it likely Port Canaveral will be closed Sunday?

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5 minutes ago, pjs9876 said:

Weather is hot and sunny in Orlando (well it was today earlier). It will be fine until hurricane gets much much closer. Surf will pick up as the days go by. Tomorrow at 4 will be a lovely sail away. I have sailed when hurricanes are out "there". The ship will move where the storm is not. Take sea sick prevention pills (I take Bonine) before any motion. My entire family has been fine!  

I am more concerned about coming back to Hurrican ravaged Florida. I am more worried about where does the cruise go to if Bahamas is in imminent path for Friday/Saturday?

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