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PelicanBill

Looking Ahead Week of Sep.1 - Speculation only

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So purely speculation so not going to alarm anyone in the Dorian thread now.

 

Two new lows coming off Africa could develop but steering is likely to keep them at sea (or Bermuda...)

 

But this is troublesome:  One of the models has Dorian heading up the coast at sea and making trouble for the entire eastern seaboard and then Canadian Maritime.... possibly still at hurricane strength right up to New York.  the picture below would be for next Saturday.  968 pressure is characteristic for a Category 2 hurricane.

 

If this happens, we'd have the worst storm on record for damage and cost for sure.

 

image.png.dd4c98b65ccc2907b32fc965d14a87e1.png

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Right - some new models actually show it passing about 50 miles to the east of us here in North Florida.  But, those are not the major ones at this point.  This storm is a challenge to forecast and a headache for both cruise lines and airlines to handle.  Then there are those of us who are somehow in the path - which is the entire state and maybe more.

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The first low coming off Africa was quietly upgraded to 40% chance to become a cyclone today.

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10 hours ago, Jasonmom said:

following

 

Same

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The low off Africa now predicted at 60% to develop, but with a NW motion that keeps it from heading to the Caribbean or Florida.

 

We have a low being watched between the Yucatan and West tip of Cuba now also.  Westward movement toward Mexico, 20% chance to develop over 5 days.

 

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Also following. We have a cruise leaving NY on September 8th. I guess it all depends on Dorian and if the Escape gets back from Bermuda. Hope there is no loss of life because of Dorian.

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Its hard to get data for updates... nobody is talking about.... well... all THIS

image.png.2d00647980d9ad98a39d6f233afe8f49.png

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The good news is nothing is a threat.

Off Africa, the red is 90% likely to get a name within a couple days.  The second low is now moving off land (the yellow),

Closer to home, the orange disturbance has a 50% chance to develop but is a threat only to Bermuda now, but is passing well east at this point and won't be strong enough to do any serious harm.  The other orange zone in the lower gulf is a threat to low-population coastal Mexico.  Tampico is the biggest population center at risk, however, a change in direction could threaten southern Texas near Brownsville and Corpus Christi.  

 

Will keep watching for anything that could be serious.

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Update for Tuesday.

 

Two of those spots are on the edge of becoming tropical storms.

 

The one that has come off Africa is very close, and the one forming in the lower gulf is even closer.  Will post new threads when each gets a name.  The first does not appear to be any threat.  The second will create some threat to the Mexico east coast around Tampico.

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53 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Update for Tuesday.

 

Two of those spots are on the edge of becoming tropical storms.

 

The one that has come off Africa is very close, and the one forming in the lower gulf is even closer.  Will post new threads when each gets a name.  The first does not appear to be any threat.  The second will create some threat to the Mexico east coast around Tampico.

 Watch the next wave coming off Africa (Disturbance 3, 60% chance through 5 days). GFS isn't terribly excited about it, but the Euro (and the ensembles) have it developing in the Central Atlantic through mid-week next week. Operational Euro model has it close to the Antilles late next week, but the Ensemble spread is huge for that far. Euro has been consistently picking up on the system, but hasn't quite keyed in on location.

Oh, and it's also developing the next wave behind it too 🙄

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Saw on the news that the system off the coast of Mexico has formed into TS Fernand. Expected to move NW toward the northeast coast of Mexico, and potentially the lower coast of Texas. That system off Africa is currently a TD (#8), but expected to be named within the next day or so; current tracking has it going north, well away from US and Caribbean. Finally, there's another tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa with a good chance of formation, but way too soon to forecast.

 

Interesting fact I learned today - the meteorological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season is September 10. 

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image.png.4a4eea6cf5baa680272735da13cb6340.png

 

I'll be following the new wave off Africa pretty closely.  Sounds like it will be developing this week, and may become a depression over the weekend. 

 

Keeping an eye out as it might affect my September 14th sailing. 

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Yes.... so Fernand creating heavy wind and rain and flooding for Mexico and some weather over very south Texas.

Gabrielle still no issue.

I did open new threads for those since they got their names.

 

So looking at the newest areas of interest:  Area 1 is called Invest 92 (orange X upper left) and is forming near Bermuda but should travel away and be of no concern.  Area 2 bears watching.  It has formed in the area that can easily lead to a Caribbean island impact. I can't find model runs for this yet but will be searching for them today and tomorrow.  The early clue is the NOAA area of travel is more west than Northwest (as Gabrielle is doing).  Perhaps High Pressure is returning to the North Atlantic after Dorian, Gabrielle and Invest 92 pass.

 

image.png.f63996ee3b1cbf004c9baa4aa382e019.png

 

 

 

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Here's the outlook today.  The two yellows are only 10% chance to develop.  But that orange... 60% likely and the path is not something we'd want to see. Let's hope we're not naming this one next week.

 

image.png.b20ea43639919a2338406a27072d3c3c.png

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I just got a text message from NCL stating due to Dorian the Escape 9/8 sailing will be delayed. Check in between 4pm and 7pm and not to arrive before 4pm. Wonder if this is the first of many delays.

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On 9/5/2019 at 5:14 PM, Gershep said:

I just got a text message from NCL stating due to Dorian the Escape 9/8 sailing will be delayed. Check in between 4pm and 7pm and not to arrive before 4pm. Wonder if this is the first of many delays.

Any more details? 

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The disturbance coming off Africa has been reducing in chance to become a cyclone, which is good because the direction is troubling. Had come down to 50% chance. The second wave dissipated. So this is the only thing to watch for now.

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8 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Any more details? 

No more details, just plenty of calls from NCL saying we can't check in until 4pm with a 10pm departure. Celebrity Summit is coming back from Bermuda behind the Escape and they are also going to New England and Canada tomorrow. They have a 1 hour delay leaving at 5pm instead of 4pm.

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The chance to develop continues to reduce. The orange is 40% and the yellow is 20%. 

 

0B64AA67-186F-4A3D-AF67-CC8EEF702936.jpeg

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The two areas of interest have been joined by a third just coming off the Africa coast. But none have much chance to develop - the highest is 30% and the others are lower.

 

looks like no worries this week!

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Still 20% chance to develop for both systems coming off Africa. But now 40% for the disturbance in the Bahamas heading for florida and the Gulf. No comments about Alabama so far...

DA1B8117-1F0E-49EB-BB8B-55BA9FC15C11.png

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Oh and good news: we are now closer to the END of hurricane season than we are to the start!

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