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PelicanBill

Week of Sep. 8-14: Invest 95L, New Threat to FL/Gulf

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2 hours ago, Marygracie C. said:

How likely for Humberto to reach Bermuda as a hurricane?And when do you think?

Fairly likely...sometime Wednesday.

You can get all this information and more on your own at nhc.noaa.gov

time of arrival graphic

Edited by njhorseman

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NYC cruise departures are being impacted. Sunrise sailing to Bermuda today is TBD.  

 

The disturbance east of the islands is up to 90% chance to become a cyclone, but is looking to curve north and not threaten the islands.  Let's hope that continues and that it does not become a second pass at Bermuda.

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Bill, Looking ahead to the unnamed/potential “I” storm currently at 60% risk of further development.  Your thoughts on:

 

•NOAA’s cone path taking this storm Northwest/away from Caribbean islands?

•The hurricane generator looks empty for at least 1 week after that; do you concur?

 

My 2nd Caribbean trip ever (out of San Juan this Sunday) looks promising weather-wise if things go as expected.  Thanks 

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Here you go @soonernstlouis ...  hasn't been easy to see good data on this until today.  Going to stay in this thread until this storm gets a name.  There is a rainy system on the Texas gulf coast but very unlikely to get worse. The rest of the tropics are looking calm for now.

 

97L:

Paths still look to track WNW away from the islands. Good, but not out of the woods yet, keep watching until we see some official forecasts. But the trend is less good for Bermuda.  As we track Humberto (in the other thread), 97L is now at 90% to become a cyclone within 48 hours and in most models is heading in Bermuda's direction.  Some models show a path further west but still staying away from the coast.  It's too early and NOAA hasn't given a prediction yet - but will soon when it becomes a depression.  Strength in the models is no more than Category 1 when it gets up there but most model runs do show gradual strengthening.  We are 5 days at least from impact to the Bermuda area on this - so Sunday or later for sure.

 

Bermuda is at 65W 32N in this map.

image.png.c9c73114539bf75c6e1eecc24f1ff54e.png

 

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30 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Here you go @soonernstlouis ...  hasn't been easy to see good data on this until today.  Going to stay in this thread until this storm gets a name.  There is a rainy system on the Texas gulf coast but very unlikely to get worse. The rest of the tropics are looking calm for now.

 

97L:

Paths still look to track WNW away from the islands. Good, but not out of the woods yet, keep watching until we see some official forecasts. But the trend is less good for Bermuda.  As we track Humberto (in the other thread), 97L is now at 90% to become a cyclone within 48 hours and in most models is heading in Bermuda's direction.  Some models show a path further west but still staying away from the coast.  It's too early and NOAA hasn't given a prediction yet - but will soon when it becomes a depression.  Strength in the models is no more than Category 1 when it gets up there but most model runs do show gradual strengthening.  We are 5 days at least from impact to the Bermuda area on this - so Sunday or later for sure.

 

Bermuda is at 65W 32N in this map.

image.png.c9c73114539bf75c6e1eecc24f1ff54e.png

 

Thanks for the update, Bill.  

 

A likely mixed blessing for those of us sailing out of San Juan this weekend.  Hopefully no direct hit but likely rain at least Saturday.  I’ve already hinted to my wife that rain slickers are now in fashion.

 

I feel really bad for those going to Bermuda any time soon.

Edited by soonernstlouis

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Ok here’s the 11am update. We now have tropical depression 10 and a forecast. Path is following in Humberto’s footsteps through sunday, staying a reasonable distance NE of the islands. No curve forecast yet but keeps this weekends cruise departures clear, but for how long we’ll see.

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40 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Ok here’s the 11am update. We now have tropical depression 10 and a forecast. Path is following in Humberto’s footsteps through sunday, staying a reasonable distance NE of the islands. No curve forecast yet but keeps this weekends cruise departures clear, but for how long we’ll see.

Appreciate the updates, PelicanBill!  The resources linked here have been really helpful to check out.  Very new to cruising and hurricane watching myself!  If I could get your [or anyone readings!] $.02 I'd be interested... We're hopefully leaving Saturday 9/21 on a 5 night cruise with our only stop being Bermuda.  Seems like Humberto shouldn't be disruptive for us since it will have already blown through.  Regarding Invest 97L (now tropical depression 10 if I'm understanding correctly?) - if we're scheduled to be in Bermuda Monday 9/23 how optimistic/pessimistic should we realistically be about our chances at this point?  Still too soon to tell?  I'm trying to follow along on my own at nhc.noaa.gov but seeing the current path, I'm not sure how quickly they usually travel after they turn but if I had to guess it doesn't look good for us!

 

2 hours ago, soonernstlouis said:

I feel really bad for those going to Bermuda any time soon.

 

*insert nervous laughter*  😅😬

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47 minutes ago, bveeto said:

Appreciate the updates, PelicanBill!  The resources linked here have been really helpful to check out.  Very new to cruising and hurricane watching myself!  If I could get your [or anyone readings!] $.02 I'd be interested... We're hopefully leaving Saturday 9/21 on a 5 night cruise with our only stop being Bermuda.  Seems like Humberto shouldn't be disruptive for us since it will have already blown through.  Regarding Invest 97L (now tropical depression 10 if I'm understanding correctly?) - if we're scheduled to be in Bermuda Monday 9/23 how optimistic/pessimistic should we realistically be about our chances at this point?  Still too soon to tell?  I'm trying to follow along on my own at nhc.noaa.gov but seeing the current path, I'm not sure how quickly they usually travel after they turn but if I had to guess it doesn't look good for us!

 

 

*insert nervous laughter*  😅😬

I'm watching for similar reasons-going out of Port Canaveral on Saturday so not worried about that.  Headed to Bermuda for an overnight Monday into Tuesday, Wed at sea, Thurs at Grand Turks, and Friday at sea.  This depression looks poised to disrupt some of that though I know it is still early  

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So Pelican Pete,

We leave NYC on this Friday,arrive Bermuda Sunday for a day and then back to NYC.Short trip this time due to care giving obligations.

Will our trip be rocking and rolling in your opinion.The Atlantic is always rocky when we cruise but is this going to be worse.

As always,thank you.

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I will try to answer questions in a moment but first, SURPRISE.

 

We have tropical depression 11, forecast to get a name and be a tropical storm, on the coast of Texas coming in right over Houston as a tropical storm and back to depression all before tomorrow morning.

YIKES.  I hope local forecasters were paying attention in Texas.

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1 hour ago, bveeto said:

Appreciate the updates, PelicanBill!  The resources linked here have been really helpful to check out.  Very new to cruising and hurricane watching myself!  If I could get your [or anyone readings!] $.02 I'd be interested... We're hopefully leaving Saturday 9/21 on a 5 night cruise with our only stop being Bermuda.  Seems like Humberto shouldn't be disruptive for us since it will have already blown through.  Regarding Invest 97L (now tropical depression 10 if I'm understanding correctly?) - if we're scheduled to be in Bermuda Monday 9/23 how optimistic/pessimistic should we realistically be about our chances at this point?  Still too soon to tell?  I'm trying to follow along on my own at nhc.noaa.gov but seeing the current path, I'm not sure how quickly they usually travel after they turn but if I had to guess it doesn't look good for us!

 

It is very hard to see past Saturday-Sunday.   Models suggest a curve to the north after then but 5 days is a long time in weather and it's not certain at all.  If it goes to the coast then cruises from NY would be in better shape next week but Charleston and Baltimore could be impacted.  The thing to watch for cruises leaving this weekend is if you are heading the same place as the storm. Hopefully we will have a better idea in 2 days. NYC departures could be unaffected if it heads west, or maybe only delayed on return.

 

46 minutes ago, danak13 said:

I'm watching for similar reasons-going out of Port Canaveral on Saturday so not worried about that.  Headed to Bermuda for an overnight Monday into Tuesday, Wed at sea, Thurs at Grand Turks, and Friday at sea.  This depression looks poised to disrupt some of that though I know it is still early  

 

Same issue but somewhat worse than NYC departures.  You'd be going the same place or trying to cross paths.  It will be too early to go around behind or follow.  I think you can get out but I will make a wild guess you have to head south and get behind the storm instead of going to Bermuda. Perhaps Grand Turk and some other port. Still early to do anything but guess.

 

 

10 minutes ago, Marygracie C. said:

So Pelican Pete,

We leave NYC on this Friday,arrive Bermuda Sunday for a day and then back to NYC.Short trip this time due to care giving obligations.

Will our trip be rocking and rolling in your opinion.The Atlantic is always rocky when we cruise but is this going to be worse.

As always,thank you.

 

I like "Pelican Pete" also.  I think you are clear.  Humberto will be long gone, and this second storm is looking to be still far off from Bermuda if it goes that way.  So "in my opinion" is a bad idea because rough seas are nothing to me. I think you can expect 5-8' seas like any typical Atlantic day, which is nothing to some and horrible to sensitive people. Get the Windy app and learn how to switch it to "seas" and roll the timeline forward.  But realize the future is fuzzy and only really good for 48 hours or so unless you have a lot of experience and know what L and H pressure systems are out there and where they are going.

 

3 minutes ago, Haveuseen1 said:

I have Port Canaveral Saturday Departure, Amber Cove Monday ( 23rd ) , Grand Turk Tuesday ( 24 ).  Could be a bumpy ride.

 

 

This one is tricky.  The storm will be well past your ports by then, but the question is can the ship slip safely between the Bahamas and Cuba, to reach Amber Cove in time, or will it have to divert around Cuba and maybe choose alternate ports.  We'll have to watch wind fields as the track moves along on Saturday and Sunday to guess at what you are doing... but you may know by then!

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And just like that depression 11 is Tropical Storm Imelda.  Separate thread created for that.

 

Probably going to have a separate thread tomorrow morning for TD 10 when it gets a name.

 

Will only discuss TD 10 from this point here until it gets named, then this thread is done.

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PelicanBill --- I hope this thing turns or fizzles. We are on Equinox leaving Ft Lauderdale, Monday Sep 23 and on Thursday first stop is supposed to be St Thomas... any thoughts on likely path we would likely take? It seems that even if the turn is fairly sharp that we would likely still be sailing in fairly rough waters. Not sure how far out seas are impacted by these type storms. It doesn't look like Ft Lauderdale will be directly impacted... at least based on the little we know now.

 

I really do hope it turns before the Bahamas... they need a break.

Screen Shot 2019-09-17 at 2.30.52 PM.png

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TD 10 has me worried, I’m flying to Miami on Sunday 9/22 to board ship Monday 9/23. Nassau on Tuesday, Half moon cay on Wednesday, Grand Turk Thursday. Glad I bought insurance.

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Just thought I’d throw you all a view of the Central Pacific. There are 3 named storms in the eastern pacific, one disturbance, and further west you have this nonsense:

 

0A7C7ED1-1206-4FA7-82DF-008A01811AC3.png

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TD Ten expected to be a tropical storm tomorrow and a hurricane Friday. Path still staying off the islands and no recurve to speak of. Florida needs to pay attention.

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