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PelicanBill

Atlantic- Jerry

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TD 10 has become tropical storm Jerry this morning. Following in humberto’s footsteps it is expected to go WNW along but off the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas, but growing to a hurricane so the islands could see tropical storm impacts. We can now see the beginning of a curve at the end of the forecast so it could make the full turn and threaten Bermuda, or the east coast in the Carolinas, or pass between Bermuda and the coast. Keep watching. Mid week next week is the time of concern for cruises to Bermuda.

 

8B464A29-D7D7-4EA5-BDDA-BDF8EE3270A0.png

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A little more about Jerry.

 

We can see the NHC/NOAA forecast starts to show a curve north at the end of the projected period now. Models are now fairly consistent on a continuing curve. Not so much heading west any longer.  Bermuda definitely a concern looking about 5-6 days out - so Monday-Tuesday.

 

It looks like there could be tropical storm impact to the north eastern lesser Antilles... USVI, BVI, St. Maarten area.  This would be during Friday if that happens and cruise port calls could be changed. 

 

Intensity model runs for Jerry do not show rapid growth, in fact, show tropical storm at worst which confuses me since the NHC forecast says it will be a hurricane Friday and onward for several days.

 

 

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1 minute ago, PelicanBill said:

It's worse at 2pm!  See new thread.

Gah! What thread? What is worse?

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3 minutes ago, beacha said:

Gah! What thread? What is worse?

Oh goodness second time today that's happened.  It takes me a minute to create new threads. it's there now.

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That is funny.

 

Not funny, however, is that Jerry is forecasting to go right to Bermuda and to become a hurricane today, weaken to tropical storm, then re-strengthen to hurricane as it turns toward Bermuda. Still some time for changes in all this. 

Timing would be Tuesday-Wednesday to reach Bermuda but can change.

 

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Sorry for the humor.  Definitely not intended toward people affected by the storm.  

 

It does look like the storm progress is speeding up a little from the forecast 2 days ago even with the forecasted path staying basically the same.  I’ve been focusing on when the tropical storm-force winds cross Puerto Rico.  2 days ago it was during the day on Saturday, now overnight Friday.  Assuming no more than brushed by TS winds, I assume the airport will be open when we arrive Saturday afternoon.

 

Keep up the great work.

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Thank you!  I thought it was funny. A little humor isn't bad as long as it is not at the expense of those affected.  When our cruises are disrupted we have to keep a sense of humor. Happened to me twice!

 

So I do not see much chance of tropical storm force winds reaching Puerto Rico. If the storm grows in size enough, then some of the northeast islands could see that, and there are TS watches up for them.  Even if the wind field grows in size as it gains some strength, it won't be a giant, and the path is staying well NE of all the islands so far.  In the graphic below, you will see the orange (tropical storm winds) grow a little and a red core of hurricane winds will be there later today.  But it would take a change to westward movement to affect Puerto Rico.  They could certainly have a gusty day with rain bands passing over.

 

[Image of initial wind radii]

 

 

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Hi. I found this thread as I've been compulsively searching for Jerry news. We are scheduled to sail on Anthem leaving NJ on Sat Sep 21, supposed to be in Bermuda Monday and leave Tuesday afternoon to head back to NJ (5 night cruise). Now I'm crazed with anxiety. This is our 6th cruise and have never had a weather problem before- we decided to take grandparents along this time to show them how amazing cruising is 🤦‍♀️. Could those of you more experienced tell me what your guess is on what happens to my trip for to Jerry? I'm kind of hoping to be rerouted to Canada but I have a fear that Royal will decide to try and just beat the weather and possibly dip out of Bermuda early. Weather in Bermuda will be terrible. I honestly just love being on the ship. I'd stay on it in the harbor if that was an option 😂. When do they usually decide and give people notice? Are the decisions usually more conservative or are they so used to all this that they take their chances? Sorry if I sound crazy. I'm a nervous person and this is making me a little nutty as of late. Thanks. ☺ 

Edited by Brina424

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@PelicanBill Thank You.

 

@Brina424 I’d be nervous too, especially if I had my grandparents with me. My one and only experience with bad weather is the cruise line cancelled our cruise.  I realize that does not help you, and I don’t want to add to anxiety. Call Royal and see if or what their Plan B is.  The waiting is the worst.  Sending you good thoughts and wishes.

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Brina424, Check our the Windy app if you haven’t used it. Looks like you could leave Bermuda before the storm comes in, and travel back to NJ away from its track. I think you will be fine. Royal will make an intelligent decision. I think they have their own meteorologist!

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51 minutes ago, Brina424 said:

Hi. I found this thread as I've been compulsively searching for Jerry news. We are scheduled to sail on Anthem leaving NJ on Sat Sep 21, supposed to be in Bermuda Monday and leave Tuesday afternoon to head back to NJ (5 night cruise). Now I'm crazed with anxiety. This is our 6th cruise and have never had a weather problem before- we decided to take grandparents along this time to show them how amazing cruising is 🤦‍♀️. Could those of you more experienced tell me what your guess is on what happens to my trip for to Jerry? I'm kind of hoping to be rerouted to Canada but I have a fear that Royal will decide to try and just beat the weather and possibly dip out of Bermuda early. Weather in Bermuda will be terrible. I honestly just love being on the ship. I'd stay on it in the harbor if that was an option 😂. When do they usually decide and give people notice? Are the decisions usually more conservative or are they so used to all this that they take their chances? Sorry if I sound crazy. I'm a nervous person and this is making me a little nutty as of late. Thanks. ☺ 

 

I'm in the same boat (literally, heh bad pun!). My partner and I are also on Anthem leaving Sat 21 with you guys.  Very anxious/nervous/concerned myself.  We'll see!  Nothing official from RCI yet of course but I've read horror stories from others about not knowing the itinerary changes until they're boarding the boat (and Canada vs. Bermuda would impact my packing a lot!).  Anyways, hang in there - we'll see what happens 🙂

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I'm afraid calling your cruise line will not give you an answer.  Experience suggests that official news may come by email, robocall or in your cruise line account, if there are changes in departure.

 

Port changes may or may not be signalled ahead.  Sometimes that decisions is made day of departure and learned only once you are onboard.

 

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Jerry is now a hurricane. Path turn is sharper but still pointing toward Bermuda, with a bit more speed now, showing arrival of tropical storm winds during the day Monday and continuing into Tuesday. Faster could be a benefit to cruises to slip in behind still.

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My family and I are on the same cruise as you guys.  I am becoming a nervous wreck.

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Thanks for all the thoughtful responses. The second I hear anything new from Royal I will come back and let everyone know. See you guys on the ship! 🤞 for a good trip. 

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Thank you PelicanBill.

 

We are on Carnival Sunshine sailing Sunday to arrive in Bermuda on Weds. I wonder where they might send us if we cannot safely sail there.

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Unfortunately for Bermuda, the NHC's 5 pm AST  update has Bermuda almost dead center in the cone with likely arrival of tropical storm force winds on Monday. Although at this time Jerry isn't forecast to be a major (cat 3 or higher) hurricane like Humberto at that time, Bermuda could take a more direct hit from Jerry based on the current forecast.

 

204238_earliest_reasonable_toa_34.png

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25 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

Unfortunately for Bermuda, the NHC's 5 pm AST  update has Bermuda almost dead center in the cone with likely arrival of tropical storm force winds on Monday. Although at this time Jerry isn't forecast to be a major (cat 3 or higher) hurricane like Humberto at that time, Bermuda could take a more direct hit from Jerry based on the current forecast.

 

204238_earliest_reasonable_toa_34.png

Thanks so much for updating. I'm horrified! Lol. I would be so happy to get a call from Royal Caribbean that we are going elsewhere. Totally nervous that we will still head for Bermuda. 

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We are also on the Carnival Sunshine leaving Charleston on Sunday for Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday.  My husband and I are referring to this as our Mystery Cruise.  We don't know where we will end up going, but we will have fun no matter what.  Thank you for all the updates!  🙂

 

Lisa

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I am on the breeze leaving Saturday for bermuda. Supposed to be docked Monday night into Tuesday but I can't imagine that will happen. I just wish they would tell us where we are going and not wait until we board on Saturday. It would make me much calmer 

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