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PelicanBill

Atlantic - Karen

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So today we have tropical storm Karen.  No Karen Memes please LOL.

 

Passing just north of Tobago as it forms, it is a rare Windward islands storm with warnings up for Trinidad and Tobago, and Grenada.  The good news is that it is forecast to remain a tropical storm for a long time.  The bad news is it's looking to go NNW and N and hit the nothern islands.  The path is between Puerto Rico and the USVI, over Culebra, but don't count on it staying like that. 

Timing: Crossing the southern islands now through tomorrow.  Next crossing near USVI and PR Tuesday.

Oh and what's that to the north of that path?  Yes.  Yes, that's Bermuda.  3 storms in one season?  

 

image.png.eb2e6967f954ebed41a5f169b25bf4cb.png

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Found some analysis on later stages for Karen and they are expected this one to stall for a time north of Puerto Rico, then turn WEST. The question is where it makes the turn... could be through the Turks and Caicos toward Cuba , or later through the Bahamas and toward South Florida and the Keys.  That would happen in the Thursday-Friday timeframe.  Note the NHC forecast takes it well north at the moment so today's updates at 11am and 5pm will be particulalrly interesting here.

 

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Just boarded Fascination.  We’re handed the non-descript letter about Karen potential port scheduling & monitoring the situation.

 

Let me know if you change your mind about Karen meme’s.  I’ve got some doozies for that name due to a former co-worker.

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HAHAHAHA good one. Okay, open season on Karen Memes.

 

The NHC seems unwilling to talk about what might happen after day 4-5 except that it should slow.  Forecast to remain a tropical storm only as it passes PR and USVI.

Not much of a threat at this point.  

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Heads up!  Fascination itinerary change:

Monday St Marten

Tuesday At Kitts

Wednesday Dominica (replaces St Thomas from Monday).

 

Fun times, indeed.

 

No WiFi, so out.

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Thanks for the report! I also know Norwegian Breakaway was heading to San Juan but certainly had to go somewhere else. 

 

The forecast now now clearly shows the stall from the blocking high and turn to the west. Glad it is only expected to be a tropical storm. 

 

A216F0CB-2CD1-493C-A13B-423D0414C344.png

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Karen is not well-organized and will be pretty weak passing by Puerto Rico and USVI.  Good. Winds as much as 40mph but less the farther away you get from the center.

 

Path for tomorrow looks to cross PR about 15-20 miles inland west from the easternmost point.  That's still well east of San Juan.  Strongest winds will be in Vieques, Culebra (islands to east) and Fajardo on PR.

 

After that, conditions appear favorable for strengthening and it is forecast to be approach hurricane strength east of the Bahamas around Friday as it slows and begins a turn to the west.

 

The Northern Bahamas (unfortunately) and South Florida need to be on alert to make preparations next weekend if it goes as expected.  That's just to prepare - it will still be far east of those areas and the following week we must see what it does.

 

Here's a look at the model runs.  As you can see, there is a trend but not a strong consensus.

storm_12_ens.gif

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Thank you PelicanBill for doing this.  I'm supposed to get on the NCL Breakaway in Miami on 9/29/19.  Will be following along.

 

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Current position of the Breakaway.  Almost looks like they are taking a "wait and see" path.
 

Capture.JPG

Edited by GA Dave

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I agree! Holding back.   Well Karen is weak but now going to cross closer to the middle of Puerto Rico so interior power outages and treefall are likely. San Juan will see the full tropical storm as well. All through tomorrow before it heads north where is could strengthen a bit.

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Karen is a little stronger but still only a tropical storm.  The path has shifted back to be between San Juan and Fajardo on Puerto Rico.  At 7mph it will be another 7 hours, or 4pm EDT when it arrives to the shore, and the tropical storm force winds are training the storm center so the worst will be late today into tonight.  

 

Then we watch to see how much strength it can regain after crossing the mountains and heads toward the "stall" we expect before turning west.  Could get organized and stronger, or could fall apart.  

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Fascination skipped St Kitts this morning due to winds.  Now heading to Dominica for tomorrow’s port.  Has been a rough evening/morning from St Maarten to St Kitts.  Hope we find clear weather soon as my sea bands, patches and bonine isn’t really helping.

 

Will update any further changes.

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2 hours ago, soonernstlouis said:

Fascination skipped St Kitts this morning due to winds.  Now heading to Dominica for tomorrow’s port.  Has been a rough evening/morning from St Maarten to St Kitts.  Hope we find clear weather soon as my sea bands, patches and bonine isn’t really helping.

 

Will update any further changes.

Thanks for the update.  I didn't think to check "windy" for sea conditions as the NHC maps make it look small. But outflow in the sheltered Caribbean can be rough compared to normal conditions there.  Hopefully with Karen on the north side of the Antilles tomorrow and you further south it will be calmer.

 

I hear green apples are helpful if they have any.  I wouldn't know as I am a rare type who likes bouncy seas.

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When the spaghetti models simply look like a plate of spaghetti... not all that helpful to the forecasters!

 

image.thumb.png.0c19fe7e2d04f1afb490e23bd07ef471.png

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16 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Thanks for the update.  I didn't think to check "windy" for sea conditions as the NHC maps make it look small. But outflow in the sheltered Caribbean can be rough compared to normal conditions there.  Hopefully with Karen on the north side of the Antilles tomorrow and you further south it will be calmer.

 

I hear green apples are helpful if they have any.  I wouldn't know as I am a rare type who likes bouncy seas.

Thanks, Bill.  The tv channel that shows current ship conditions listed sustained winds at about 25kts and “I think the term is” relative winds at 45kts this morning (it was a headwind so cruising speed only 18kts).

 

Weather is still overcast but slowly improving where we are (due west of Antigua).  Thanks for all your advice.

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45 knots is quite a headwind!  We had winds like that last year trying to dock in Cozumel and Ocho Rios, and tender in Grand Cayman.  We lost many hours docking very slowly, and had to tender from an alternate location, also losing 2 hours port time there.

 

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Fascination is rumored to fill in the Saturday Sea Day with the missed stop of St Kitts.  If true, they really are trying to keep pax happy.  Since we are leaving Barbados @ 9pm Friday and (presumably) arriving St. Kitts 8am, the math works out to be roughly 36 mph.  More than likely a shortened day if so.  No refund yet on St Kitts port fees unlike the immediate refund of STT fees when cxl was announced.

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Just hit a bad squall on the Fascination.  Boat was listing a few degrees.  Went back to our room.  Actual wind speed was 42kts, apparent wind speed was 50 kts.

 

St Kitts is official for Saturday 10-5. Barbados only staying Friday until 5pm (originally til 9).  

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50kt is very uncomfortable for a Cruise ship.

meanwhile I am stunned to see NCL Breakaway in Port In San Juan this evening until 9 ad a tropical storm bears down. And their next stop is St. Thomas- across the path. Brazen and possible they will have the same experience. Can’t say I care for these risks being taken. 

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I just checked CruiseMapper and it shows the Breakaway in port at San Juan.  Must be an interesting night.  Supposed to sail away in five hours to St. Thomas.  Glad I am not on that cruise!

 

Oops!  Sorry Bill, just noticed your post.  Great minds....   😁

Edited by GA Dave

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3 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

50kt is very uncomfortable for a Cruise ship.

meanwhile I am stunned to see NCL Breakaway in Port In San Juan this evening until 9 ad a tropical storm bears down. And their next stop is St. Thomas- across the path. Brazen and possible they will have the same experience. Can’t say I care for these risks being taken. 

 

3 hours ago, GA Dave said:

I just checked CruiseMapper and it shows the Breakaway in port at San Juan.  Must be an interesting night.  Supposed to sail away in five hours to St. Thomas.  Glad I am not on that cruise!

 

Oops!  Sorry Bill, just noticed your post.  Great minds....   😁

NHC forecast shows only a 13% chance of 34 knot (the minimum tropical storm force) winds in San Juan tonight. Nothing close to 50 knot wind is expected. The tropical storm force winds are primarily in the southeast quadrant of the storm, which puts San Juan out of the expected line of fire, so the Breakaway should be in good shape docking in San Juan.  

 

Here's a recent picture from the ship's webcam.

 

fullsize.jpg?browser_popup=640x480

Edited by njhorseman

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I was more concerned about Breakaway leaving San Juan at 9pm, crossing the path of the storm as it was passing after docking last night.  As it turns out, Breakway is still in San Juan this morning, which means a delay in reaching St. Thomas.

 

Karen is off to the north of Puerto Rico, and now we watch how much strength she may keep, gain, or lose over time.  But for the next 5 or so days, it will kind of stall and maybe do a slow dance out there before the expected westward movement begins.

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