Wait or am I too late?

[styme123]

I'm a newbie traveler and I've been obsessing over the price of booking my plane fare for my up coming BI cruise this Aug. I've been watching non-stop VA and Delta flights from JFK to either HLR or Gatwick. In the beginning the flights were around $450/500ish but now they are $730ish. Did I miss my window to buy tickets for cheaper? Should I just buy them now and cut my losses before they go higher? Do I just wait a month or so out and hope as it gets closer it will drop? Since it's traveling in the summer, am I unrealistic about how cheap they will be? I do also have back up EZAir through Princess for pretty cheap but that doesn't include unknown fee prices. TIA for any feed back or suggestions you may have.

[Twickenham]

What are your exact dates? Is there a reason you're limiting yourself to VA/Delta?

 

The prices you were seeing are pretty cheap for summer travel to Europe. That said, I've been seeing some insanely low fares between London and New York, so you could possibly find something lower by tweaking your dates or looking at other flight options.

[CruiserBruce]

Nobody here is going to be able to tell you what the airfares will do. Not sure why you didn't buy at $450-500...thats pretty darn good. 

 

Common advice here...buy when you are comfortable, and don't look back.

[wowzz]

I know I'm being pedantic,  but the correct code for Virgin Atlantic is VS, and for Heathrow the code is LHR.

To get back to the original question, have you looked at prices with Norwegian?

[dd likes to cruise]

What is the fare with Princess?  That MIGHT give us a better idea. Not sure what unknown fees you think it will have also. 

[FlyerTalker]

Thought problem:  You saw tickets at prices in the range of about $450.  You didn't buy.  One can only assume you thought they would go lower.  Instead the prices have risen by about 50%.  Questions:

 

A) What kind of pricing were you expecting to get by waiting in the first place?  What rationally led you to that expectation?

B) Given that pricing has increased 50%, are you expecting them to return to the lower pricing?  What rationally leads you to that expectation?

C) Are you willing to risk that the pricing will increase even further by your waiting?  In the hope of finding a price drop of X dollars, are you willing to risk an increase of X (or multiple X)?

 

I suggest you answer these questions to yourself (no need to do so here), so that you can get a handle on what your own thought processes are, and what is influencing your decision making. That may be able to get you over the paralysis of pulling the trigger on tickets.

 

Finally, there is no defined "window" for purchase of air travel.  More money has been lost in "waiting for the price to drop" than has been saved -- the quest for that absolutely lowest price usually results in losing out on reasonable values.

 

Remember....hope is not a strategy.

[Alaskanb]

You mention you have EZ Air . What airline? What price? What extras are you expecting -- luggage etc? 

[Bizmark'sMom]

What extra fees are you expecting with EZ Air?

 

$730 is a pretty good price for summer airfare. While there is a chance the price will drop. There's also a chance the price will rise.  There's no set formula.  Personally, when I find a price I'm ok with I book the ticket.

[styme123]

10 hours ago, Twickenham said:

What are your exact dates? Is there a reason you're limiting yourself to VA/Delta?

 

The prices you were seeing are pretty cheap for summer travel to Europe. That said, I've been seeing some insanely low fares between London and New York, so you could possibly find something lower by tweaking your dates or looking at other flight options.

My exact dates of flying are fly out Aug 6 (later evening flight, as my DH and I need to work part of that day) and RT Aug 22 evening flight so we have a little time after cruise to sight see. The cruise is Aug 8-20. So no real wiggle room with dates. I was looking at prices for main cabin/economy classic. Whichever one is a step above the basic no frills economy, so we can pick our seats in advance. I started limiting myself to Delta/VA from just reviews, opinions of other friends and family that fly. They also have a lot of flights with the 2-3-2 configuration so I don't have to pay extra for not having someone next to me. BA charges $84 for those seats in the back of their planes each way pp so it adds up. I wanted non-stop as well, less off/on and moving parts so to speak. I'm bit anxious flying and since I've only flown 2x in my life the terminals are a bit daunting knowing where to go and what to do.   

[styme123]

5 hours ago, CruiserBruce said:

Nobody here is going to be able to tell you what the airfares will do. Not sure why you didn't buy at $450-500...thats pretty darn good. 

 

Common advice here...buy when you are comfortable, and don't look back.

When I first booked the cruise, I was basically only looking at the comparisons between EZ Air and direct ticket prices. Being a new flyer out of the US I had no idea what prices were good or not so I just kept watching them. Some other sites/people had mentioned they don't buy till much closer to when they fly for best prices, like 2 months out.     

[styme123]

5 hours ago, wowzz said:

 

To get back to the original question, have you looked at prices with Norwegian?

I looked at Norwegian but others had mentioned that they were not a great option since they have been having money trouble I believe.

[styme123]

5 hours ago, dd likes to cruise said:

What is the fare with Princess?  That MIGHT give us a better idea. Not sure what unknown fees you think it will have also. 

The EZAir was about $390pp on BA basic economy ticket. The extra fees come to about $180/200 since I would need to upgrade to the next level of economy just thave the option to pick my seat and then to pick my seat it would cost me another $124pp so your really looking at a price of about $600. That price is with a $200 discount on the EZAir. So if I want to re-fare later, if I see a better cruise price I can't if I want to use the promo.

[styme123]

4 hours ago, FlyerTalker said:

B) Given that pricing has increased 50%, are you expecting them to return to the lower pricing?  What rationally leads you to that expectation?

C) Are you willing to risk that the pricing will increase even further by your waiting?  In the hope of finding a price drop of X dollars, are you willing to risk an increase of X (or multiple X)?

Being a new flyer I guess that's what I'm asking others with more experience. Do the prices of the rates go up and down the same way the cruise ones do? In the past I've followed cruise prices pretty well and have a pretty good idea about what time of year things are "on sale". I haven't had that much history of using airlines and tracking prices so I don't have a good handle so to speak on that industry and how it works. In a few articles/recommendations that I have come across, others have mentioned that prices do go up and down (like a bell curve) so I guess that's where my thinking was that maybe this is the higher prices and i should wait it out for the "sale season" as it gets closer to my sale date like 2 months before so to speak. I know that if it's very close to the date then prices are very high.    

[wowzz]

27 minutes ago, styme123 said:

I looked at Norwegian but others had mentioned that they were not a great option since they have been having money trouble I believe.

They are safe enough at the moment, imho.

[styme123]

9 minutes ago, wowzz said:

They are safe enough at the moment, imho.

What do you think by the summer?

[dd likes to cruise]

The 2 months ahead type of thing is more prevalent with domestic flights. With international, there are no sort of rules.  I have flown Norwegian twice and was happy with the flight and prices both times.

 

Have you relooked at Princess prices?  I have a cruise in August and when I first booked their flights were 1000.00 a person. A few weeks ago, they were 500. I changed them. So keep an eye on that too.  

[Alaskanb]

Have you looked at Icelandair? 

[wowzz]

I'm going to be brutally honest. The first prices you saw at around $500 were a bargain.  But you thought they might drop by $20 or $30 which is nothing compared to the cost of your cruise. So, by trying to save $60 you are now having to pay $500 more.  

Sorry - you gambled,  and you lost. Buy a ticket now, because they won't get any cheaper.

[styme123]

3 hours ago, dd likes to cruise said:

The 2 months ahead type of thing is more prevalent with domestic flights. With international, there are no sort of rules.  I have flown Norwegian twice and was happy with the flight and prices both times.

 

Have you relooked at Princess prices?  I have a cruise in August and when I first booked their flights were 1000.00 a person. A few weeks ago, they were 500. I changed them. So keep an eye on that too.  

I've been checking Princess prices pretty often and they have been going up just like the airlines. I could stick with the EZAir but have heard some not so great things about that as well as they often re-route your non-stop to stop overs at the last minute.

[Alaskanb]

30 minutes ago, styme123 said:

I've been checking Princess prices pretty often and they have been going up just like the airlines. I could stick with the EZAir but have heard some not so great things about that as well as they often re-route your non-stop to stop overs at the last minute.

When you purchase an airline ticket all you are buying is the ability to get from A to B. Times can change; routes can change; type of plane can change; seats can change; etc. It is important to be quite flexible in your outlook. EZ Air is an intermediary between you and the airline so when the airline changes something then they do also. Remember you are flying in high season. 

There is no magical way to predict air price fluctuations. 

 

 

Edited January 12, 2020 by Alaskanb

[styme123]

2 hours ago, Alaskanb said:

When you purchase an airline ticket all you are buying is the ability to get from A to B. Times can change; routes can change; type of plane can change; seats can change; etc. It is important to be quite flexible in your outlook. EZ Air is an intermediary between you and the airline so when the airline changes something then they do also. Remember you are flying in high season. 

There is no magical way to predict air price fluctuations. 

 

 

Have you ever used EZAir? if so how did it go?

[6rugrats]

Look at British Airways.  I don’t know your dates or criteria, but you can get RT in Basic Economy for as low as $524.00 RT.  Make sure you understand the restrictions of these tickets.

my DD and I are going to the UK this spring on BA and paid $325 per ticket.  We did pay a small fee to choose seats, but can manage just fine with carry ons only.

[Alaskanb]

13 hours ago, styme123 said:

Have you ever used EZAir? if so how did it go?

We had to cancel our last cruise due to ill health -- we had booked EZ Air for our return flight on Delta (Virgin Atlantic) and American Airline points for our outbound flight. Like anything you have to do your research and look at both pros and cons. My feeling was that I couldn't find better prices and I could deal with having another entity between me and the airline on a return flight. We have multiple flights to get from New Mexico to the UK --you have a relatively short one. I think your big question is can you trust EZ Air.  Someone has started a question about it on the Princess forum 

 

 

Edited January 12, 2020 by Alaskanb

[styme123]

43 minutes ago, 6rugrats said:

Look at British Airways.  I don’t know your dates or criteria, but you can get RT in Basic Economy for as low as $524.00 RT.  Make sure you understand the restrictions of these tickets.

my DD and I are going to the UK this spring on BA and paid $325 per ticket.  We did pay a small fee to choose seats, but can manage just fine with carry ons only.

I looked at BA but for me to be able to pick my seat it costs me +$124  for the seat and then I would have to upgrade from the lowest basic I think that was another $  to even have that option. My dates were Aug 6/Aug 22 from JFK- NY to London. I can do carry-on as well

Edited January 12, 2020 by styme123

[Love-to-ride]

Just looked at Norwegian air for your dates, round trip in economy  with a carry on one check bag and seat assignment for 540.40 per person non-stop. 

Edited January 12, 2020 by Love-to-ride
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