Would you fly over Iran?

[kiwichick62]

We have non-refundable airline tickets (booked with Princess) with Qatar Airways for our Baltic cruise in April.  We are thinking about cancelling those flights as Qatar are one of the few airlines still flying over Iran and Iraq - that whole area seems even less safe to me now.   😔  Qatar would be reluctant to change flight paths as they are also banned from flying over a few other gulf state countries.  

[Aus Traveller]

Would Princess consider allowing you to change to another airline?

[MMDown Under]

1 hour ago, kiwichick62 said:

We have non-refundable airline tickets (booked with Princess) with Qatar Airways for our Baltic cruise in April.  We are thinking about cancelling those flights as Qatar are one of the few airlines still flying over Iran and Iraq - that whole area seems even less safe to me now.   😔  Qatar would be reluctant to change flight paths as they are also banned from flying over a few other gulf state countries.  

I can understand your concern.  I used to fly Qatar but changed airlines after they were banned from flying over neighbouring gulf states.  

If I had a non refundable ticket with Qatar, I would fly with them to your Baltic cruise in April.  I figure flying over Iran and Iraq would be much safer now than it was prior to the recent shooting down of a plane. 

[The_Big_M]

If I had non-refundable tickets, I'd probably still use them as that's a lot of cash to lose, and overall likelihood is it will be fine. That's not a guarantee though as the plane shot down there was no justification in any case, and it was following Iranian aircontrol instructions.

 

But of course, such decisions can only be made by your own values of comfort and safety. It's not really a logic or right/wrong question since the outcome can't be determined in advance, just how you feel about the matter.

[Bubbeh]

Have you spoken with your Travel Insurer to see if you have any options via that avenue?

[The_Big_M]

It'd be unlikely as they cover you for insurable events. Wanting to avoid a route when there is no specific advisory against it isn't an insurable event that I have seen.

 

Normally insurance covers you for something that has happened, rather than something that may happen e.g. in a simple sense if you may miss your connection because it's very tight that isn't covered, but if you actually miss the connection (even if it was a long gap) and your luggage is delayed you're covered.

[MicCanberra]

To me, Iran is a hard place.

Choosing to fly over Iraq and a hard place is tough..

[Bpos]

7 minutes ago, MicCanberra said:

To me, Iran is a hard place.

Choosing to fly over Iraq and a hard place is tough..

 

Safer to fly than walk

[ilikeanswers]

Unless something starts up again I would say it is probably fine to fly that route. If anything it is probably safer now because they would be even more vigilant to not make a repeat mistake. 

[Esilef]

We are flying to Amsterdam in September on China eastern airlines and I had not thought to look at changing.

 

we deliberately didn’t go to Hong Kong due to the issues there. 

 

In in the current world environment I guess you can’t tell what’s going to be happening. Monitor the smart Australia travel website for alerts

[kiwichick62]

Thanks for the replies, much appreciated.  We will check the situation in another 5 weeks and cancel if we feel the need to.  Checked our insurance document and we would not be covered.  Yes MicCanberra if we flew along the boarder we could indeed be between Iraq and a hard place.  😂

 

I also note that many cruise ships are still going to these areas and some passengers are wanting to cancel their cruises. 

 

If anyone is interested flightradar24 has an app that shows flights in real time all over the world.  

[lyndarra]

I have flown Qatar a few times and have more flights in April. ATM I'll watch the situation but I'm not overly concerned.

[lucymorgan]

Are you sure they fly over Iran for your flight?  I flew to Europe with Qatar a couple of years ago, a week after the ban from flying some other countries came into force and they flew along the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf  As a result and because the ban had just happened the flights were all about 30 minutes late because of the extra distance (until they adjusted their timetables).   It might be worth looking at Flightradar24 to see where your flight typically goes - you can search by flight number and see its path.  (edit: I see you know about flightradar24 😉)

 

Even if it did fly over Iran I think it would be unlikely to hit trouble as one of the stated reasons for the ban for flying over other gulf countries was the alliance of Qatar and Iran.    

Edited January 16, 2020 by lucymorgan

[Dobby_The_Ship_Elf]

Recently flew to the UK via Doha with Qatar Airways.

 

Yes we had to fly an "avoidance route" up the Persian Gulf keeping the UAE firmly out there under the port wing (got great views of Dubai & Abu Dhabi).

 

Departure out of Doha to Manchester was directly overhead Iran ....... we had no issues.

 

We cruised back via the Suez Canal stopping in the UAE.

 

We did see a patrol boat (assumed to be Iranian as it had no markings or flags) which liked to zoom in our general direction as we cruised through the Straits of Hormuz.

 

This was in October/November 2019.

[The_Big_M]

Given the original cause is still unclear, that's certainly not something I'm willing to bet/risk my life on. Especially with the internal conflict adding to it.

[ilikeanswers]

14 hours ago, The_Big_M said:

Given the original cause is still unclear, that's certainly not something I'm willing to bet/risk my life on. Especially with the internal conflict adding to it.

 

I'm a little confused what do you mean by the cause is still unclear? The Iranian government admitted they mistakenly shot down the plane. That seems like a pretty clear cut answer to me.

[The_Big_M]

2 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

I'm a little confused what do you mean by the cause is still unclear? The Iranian government admitted they mistakenly shot down the plane. That seems like a pretty clear cut answer to me.

 

The cause of why they shot down the plane. Sending missiles at civilian planes is not expected practise and it's not as though they had poor guidance and were targeting something else. And their multiple excuses alluding to why it may have happened show both further lying and didn't add up, so the cause is still unknown.

 

Far from clear cut.

Edited January 17, 2020 by The_Big_M

[ilikeanswers]

6 hours ago, The_Big_M said:

 

The cause of why they shot down the plane. Sending missiles at civilian planes is not expected practise and it's not as though they had poor guidance and were targeting something else. And their multiple excuses alluding to why it may have happened show both further lying and didn't add up, so the cause is still unknown.

 

Far from clear cut.

 

I don't know, I'm not convinced there is anything further to the story. There was nothing remarkable about the plane or the pasengers to warrant a deliberate targeting. Any system that has a human element is prone to mistakes. Heck even A/I because it is based on human reasoning makes human mistakes😂. I am a bit of a science nerd and if one thing I have learnt after watching all those docos about the human brain is its propensity to fail us when we need it most. Air France Flight 447 is a pretty good example of how the human brain failed two well trained pilots. The idea that technology can save us from human mistakes is something we want to believe because it makes us think it is some sort of safety net to protect us from ourselves but sadly even with the best technology under the right (or is wrong the more appropriate word?) circumstances we can still screw it up😓.

[The_Big_M]

2 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

I don't know, I'm not convinced there is anything further to the story. There was nothing remarkable about the plane or the pasengers to warrant a deliberate targeting. Any system that has a human element is prone to mistakes. Heck even A/I because it is based on human reasoning makes human mistakes😂.

 

It's a simple fact, we don't know the cause of why the plane was hit by a missile. 

 

You're not aware of why it would be targeted, but until they admitted it, people were still not even sure it was shot down by missile. They certainly haven't explained why, and have actually shown they are still covering things up with their multiple excuses, vagueness of blaming someone and lack of explanation. You seem to have assumed there was some human error that would be so easy, but if that's the case why haven't there been planes shot down over Australia? And many other countries?

 

As already said, there were no other conditions for such a "simple" (but not really simple) mistake to occur. They were not shooting down other planes, there was no element of threat to this one at all that could have possibly accidentally triggered something, and they were in the capital city beside their main well known airport were all the senior staff and best equipment are. Basically, there was no reason a '"mistake" should have occurred.

 

2 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

 I am a bit of a science nerd and if one thing I have learnt after watching all those docos about the human brain is its propensity to fail us when we need it most. Air France Flight 447 is a pretty good example of how the human brain failed two well trained pilots. The idea that technology can save us from human mistakes is something we want to believe because it makes us think it is some sort of safety net to protect us from ourselves but sadly even with the best technology under the right (or is wrong the more appropriate word?) circumstances we can still screw it up😓.

 

Err, you might want to do some more research on AF447. The cause was mostly pilot error, two of them could not really be described as well trained, and the fact they crashed her like that shows their failings - it wouldn't have happened with a competent crew.

 

I don't believe I wrote anything that I expect technology to save us from human mistakes, and I'm not sure how that relates to the Iranian shoot down of a civilian airliner.

[ilikeanswers]

8 hours ago, The_Big_M said:

Err, you might want to do some more research on AF447. The cause was mostly pilot error, two of them could not really be described as well trained, and the fact they crashed her like that shows their failings - it wouldn't have happened with a competent crew.

 

I think we will have to agree to disagree. People will either feel there is a threat or not and I just can't feel it😋. To clarify my earlier point I never denied it was pilot error but it was pilot error because they developed a form of tunnel vision where they counldn't get out of their orginal thought process to solve the problem even though they had been trained in that scenario. Yes training can mitigate this issue but it doens't fully eliminate it. If I was to hazard a theory I think something similar happened in Iran where someone in the chain of command got trapped in a thought process this plane was something other than a civilian plane and like all good autocratic systems nobody questions the leader no matter how wrong they might know they are and unfortunately like all good autocratic systems they will be looking for a scapegoat to pin it on because it would be more embarrasing to admit someone in command is fallible so I am not surprised the investigation is vague because the truth is the person truely responsible will probably never be held accountable since they are most likley part of the untouchable class.

 

If you are interested here is a good list recently compiled of commercial airlines that have been accidently shot down. It might not be common but it does happen:

 

Civilian Planes Shot Down

 

Though if it was deliberate shooting should that not give people more comfort that the chance of your plane being shot down is even slimer since how likely is it your plane will also have someone who is worth targeting by shooting dowm a whole plane?

 

Luckily there are many flight routes so if people don't feel comfortable Iran is easy to avoid though last time I flew over Iran I have to say the scenary was absolutely stunning🤗.

[lyndarra]

The risk of a crash from pilot error or mechanical failure is far, far greater than being shot down - yet we still get on those massive flying lumps of metal and carbon fibre.

The cause of this latest Iranian crash was suss from the beginning when it was immediately stated that it was caused by mechanical failure, yeh, right.

[MicCanberra]

I try and avoid flying where possible, that is why cruising is nice.

[The_Big_M]

12 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

I think we will have to agree to disagree. People will either feel there is a threat or not and I just can't feel it😋. To clarify my earlier point I never denied it was pilot error but it was pilot error because they developed a form of tunnel vision where they counldn't get out of their orginal thought process to solve the problem even though they had been trained in that scenario. Yes training can mitigate this issue but it doens't fully eliminate it. If I was to hazard a theory I think something similar happened in Iran where someone in the chain of command got trapped in a thought process this plane was something other than a civilian plane and like all good autocratic systems nobody questions the leader no matter how wrong they might know they are and unfortunately like all good autocratic systems they will be looking for a scapegoat to pin it on because it would be more embarrasing to admit someone in command is fallible so I am not surprised the investigation is vague because the truth is the person truely responsible will probably never be held accountable since they are most likley part of the untouchable class.

 

If you are interested here is a good list recently compiled of commercial airlines that have been accidently shot down. It might not be common but it does happen:

 

Civilian Planes Shot Down

 

Though if it was deliberate shooting should that not give people more comfort that the chance of your plane being shot down is even slimer since how likely is it your plane will also have someone who is worth targeting by shooting dowm a whole plane?

 

Luckily there are many flight routes so if people don't feel comfortable Iran is easy to avoid though last time I flew over Iran I have to say the scenary was absolutely stunning🤗.

 

That's your call about whether you feel comfort or not, but it's still a fact that the cause has not been revealed. If you're comfortable with that because you assume it was intentional but somehow a mistake that's fine but if that's the case I don't find it any better. If they can make mistakes so readily, without admitting it, then it just means there's every chance they'll do it again.

 

Unless you're also assuming they've perfectly improved their systems since then...  Which given the lack of accountability and honesty, and instability evidenced so far is not something I would agree with. 

[lyndarra]

I recall an Iranian airliner being accidentally shot down not too many years ago by a US surface to air missile fired from a US warship. Did anyone stop flying over US water? Who can you trust?

[MicCanberra]

I did but not for that reason.