Are you afraid of the coronavirus in your next cruise?

[KnowTheScore]

Useful thread here that covers all the main cruise lines and lists the changes they are all making to various cruises.

 

It's 4 days old though so some data will now be out of date.  

 

 

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/02/04/coronavirus-latest-cruise-line-cancellations-and-policy-updates/4657856002/

 

 

[KnowTheScore]

The Youtube clip below confirms that the Cunard - QM2  is missing Singapore and going to Australia.

 

 

[Toofarfromthesea]

On 2/7/2020 at 7:45 PM, navybankerteacher said:

That 57,000 is the whole year’s toll in a population of 300 million plus.  The Corona virus is just over a month old - and the 300 plus deaths were in a population of just over 10 million.

 

It may not spread, and fatalities may not continue to grow - but for a virus which, apparently in the last six weeks, jumped from one species to another, it seems to be thriving — and even if it’s death rate is 1/3 that of the flu - if it’s infection rate turns out to be more than six times that of the flu (not inconceivable - as there seems to be no natural immunity and no vaccine) there will be greater impact.

 

I am not predicting any such thing - but people who take comfort in partial statistics should look at the whole picture.

 

It works the other way, as well - people panicking over partial statistics should look at a more complete picture.  No one ever gets to look at the whole picture because we never have the whole picture.

[navybankerteacher]

2 minutes ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

It works the other way, as well - people panicking over partial statistics should look at a more complete picture.  No one ever gets to look at the whole picture because we never have the whole picture.

 True enough - but at any given point in time, ALL the available data THEN available does give “the whole picture” as it then stands. 

 

That picture continually evolves and grows  - right now it seems to portray a fairly contagious, previously unknown virus with a troublesome fatality rate.  Yes, “only” a few hundred have died of it so far - out of a localized population of millions - hardly worth panicking over - but only a damn fool would ignore a new cause of death which is not yet understood.  Taking steps to contain its spread seems to be a rational  approach — especially when those steps seem primarily to largely impact recreational, non-essential, travel.

[KnowTheScore]

I'm reading articles that say the virus has spread over into Korea but they are not widely reporting it

[ilikeanswers]

1 hour ago, KnowTheScore said:

I'm reading articles that say the virus has spread over into Korea but they are not widely reporting it

 

Which Korea? I doubt we would not know if the South had infections. People there are very media savvy, they would be posting things online.

[Aplmac]

10 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

Which Korea?

I doubt we would not know if the South had infections.

People there are very media savvy, they would be posting things online.

 

North Korea shares a land border with China

so it's reasonably safe to assume it's N. Korea.

And we'll never know how many die, or  are infected

 

[ilikeanswers]

49 minutes ago, Aplmac said:

 

North Korea shares a land border with China

so it's reasonably safe to assume it's N. Korea.

And we'll never know how many die, or  are infected

 

 

I figured that as South Korea has reported a handful of confirmed cases (I think the number was 18 last I heard) so you can't say they are hiding anything.

[chengkp75]

This is all supposition.  I have seen articles that say, "well, since N. Korea borders China, then statistically, they should have some cases", but are not reporting them.  This assumes that N. Korea has it's borders open to China, and that N. Korea has not instituted even more draconian isolation measures than China.  But, yes, if there are cases in N. Korea, we will never know about it.

[navybankerteacher]

1 hour ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

I figured that as South Korea has reported a handful of confirmed cases (I think the number was 18 last I heard) so you can't say they are hiding anything.

South Korea is a fairly open society - meaning open to travel as well as to reporting news.  It does appear that there are some cases there.   North Korea is a closed society across the board - there is very little cross-border interaction with mainland China - due in part to China’s reluctance to accept refugees as well as North Korea’s attitude about keeping their population.   Finally, there is strong press control, so even if there were cases of infection, reporting would be limited.

[KnowTheScore]

This appears to be a link/article that some are discussing in regards to North Korea

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/north-korea-secret-coronavirus-crisis-182030954.html

[ilikeanswers]

28 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

there is very little cross-border interaction with mainland China - due in part to China’s reluctance to accept refugees as well as North Korea’s attitude about keeping their population. 

 

Actually the border between North Korea and China is susprisingly porous. In the border towns North Koreans and Chinese they have a sort of zone where they can interact and there is a lot of interaction between the locals. In fact there is a fear of what will happen economically to the North Korean towns with closed borders since they are pretty much dependant on trade with their fellow Chinese. The fact some of these towns are in infection hot zones is why the International community is suspicious of their zero infection rate claim. The reality is North Korea probably has some infections the only question is did they close their borders in time.

Edited February 10, 2020 by ilikeanswers

[FLAHAM]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/10/opinion/coronavirus-china-research.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

[Journey99999]

I see another ship is denied entry. That is a LOT of money wasted for a trip.  
The ship is carrying 4,196 passengers and crew members. All guests will receive a 50% refund and a future cruise credit valued at 50% of their cruise due to the change in schedule.
 

As Princess Cruises grapples with concerns of coronavirus onboard a ship in Japan, another one of its ships, the Caribbean Princess, was forced to turn around due to a norovirus outbreak. 

At least 299 passengers and 22 crew members onboard the ship operated by California-based Princess Cruise Lines Ltd. have become sick, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Health Ministry of Trinidad & Tobago said in a statement it denied the ship entry as a precautionary measure given the outbreak.

Norovirus is a stomach bug that hits about 19 million to 21 million Americans each year, according to the CDC. Symptoms include vomiting, diarrhea and stomach cramping.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/princess-cruise-ship-forced-turn-205401767.html

[KnowTheScore]

8 cases of Coronavirus in the UK now.

 

From the Telegraph newspaper:

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/10/british-government-would-do-coronavirus-spreads/

 

"Scientific modelling estimates that the UK “could experience up to 750,000 additional deaths over the course of a pandemic”, say the government’s planning documents.

“These figures might be expected to be reduced by the impact of countermeasures, but the effectiveness of such mitigation is not certain”, it adds.

Taking account of this, local planners have been set the target of preparing to extend capacity on a “precautionary but reasonably practicable basis”, and aim to cope with a population mortality rate of up to 210,000 to 315,000 additional deaths, possibly over as little as a 15-week period and perhaps half of these over 3 weeks at the height of the outbreak."

Edited February 10, 2020 by KnowTheScore

[Christine13020]

23 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

 True enough - but at any given point in time, ALL the available data THEN available does give “the whole picture” as it then stands. 

 

That picture continually evolves and grows  - right now it seems to portray a fairly contagious, previously unknown virus with a troublesome fatality rate.  Yes, “only” a few hundred have died of it so far - out of a localized population of millions - hardly worth panicking over - but only a damn fool would ignore a new cause of death which is not yet understood.  Taking steps to contain its spread seems to be a rational  approach — especially when those steps seem primarily to largely impact recreational, non-essential, travel.

We will not have the whole picture for a while and I doubt that Chinese government is telling us the whole truth. For instance, why are theY refusing help from US CDC? Why would they be afraid to share info? Fear of negative economic impact? Fear of creating massive panic?  somethings seem fishy here.

[sfaaa]

Many N Koreans are poor, malnourished and have low resistance to diseases due to ongoing starvation in that country. Their health care system is substandard and inadequate. Being right next door to China, it's only a matter of time for coronavirus to reach N Korea and multiply rapidly under such poor living conditions. So yes, it will happen if not already happening.

Edited February 10, 2020 by sfaaa

[Aplmac]

10 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

Actually the border between North Korea and China is suprisingly porous.

In fact, there is a fear of what will happen economically to the North Korean towns with closed borders since they are pretty much dependent on trade with their fellow Chinese!

The fact some of these towns are in infection hot zones

is why the International community is suspicious of their zero infection rate claim.

The reality is North Korea probably has some infections

- the only question is did they close their borders in time?

 

Luckily the two-mile-wide DMZ De-Militarized Zone

between North and South Korea's -should prove to be a fairly decent geo-barrier

given that very little crosses that DMZ

[ilikeanswers]

1 hour ago, Aplmac said:

Luckily the two-mile-wide DMZ De-Militarized Zone

between North and South Korea's -should prove to be a fairly decent geo-barrier

given that very little crosses that DMZ

 

Overall South Korea isn't doing to badly with only 27 confirmed, no deaths and 3 recovered.

 

Novel Coronavirus Infection Map

[navybankerteacher]

1 hour ago, Aplmac said:

 

Luckily the two-mile-wide DMZ De-Militarized Zone

between North and South Korea's -should prove to be a fairly decent geo-barrier

given that very little crosses that DMZ

Interestingly, as it is largely free of human activity, the Korean Peninsula DMZ has become something of a wildlife preserve.

[mom says]

37 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

Interestingly, as it is largely free of human activity, the Korean Peninsula DMZ has become something of a wildlife preserve.

Well let's hope it isn't teeming with bats and pangolins

[ilikeanswers]

14 minutes ago, mom says said:

Well let's hope it isn't teeming with bats and pangolins

 

Considering Pangolins are the most trafficked animal in the world the DMZ would probably be the safest place for them😂.

 

 

[clo]

On 2/6/2020 at 4:37 AM, Harry Peterson said:

No right and wrong answers, because nobody has a crystal ball, but I’m mightily glad my 2020 cruises in Europe have been cancelled.

What line(s) and why?

[Harry Peterson]

3 hours ago, clo said:

What line(s) and why?

P&O - and because this is spreading far faster than I'm comfortable with.  Cruise ships are notorious for the transmission of infections (Norovirus being the classic) and it's one of the last places in the world I'd want to be this year. 

[clo]

12 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

P&O - and because this is spreading far faster than I'm comfortable with.  Cruise ships are notorious for the transmission of infections (Norovirus being the classic) and it's one of the last places in the world I'd want to be this year. 

So the cruise line has canceled?