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Buying Carnival RCL NCLH stock to get Shareholder Benfit OBC for Australasian crusers..


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Carnival RCL and NCLH Chance of Surviving.

 

1 Carnival NCLH and RCL did not get a bailout..

 

2.New rules. No Taxes to USA Gov No Taxpayer money from USA.

 

3Covid19 and Cruise ships have made a lot of People very Sick and dying.

 

4The court cases against Cruise lines. have not started yet

 

5Laying ships up is still expensive, wild guess %40 of normal running costs.

 

6.NO ONE..NO ONE, knows how long this shutdown will go on.

 

7. Covid19 affects the Most popular Cruise line age-group 60-70 year olds.

8 Any one buying CCL stock runs Risk of Market bottoming into Chap 11 or Bankruptcy.

 

My recommendation is wait until there is a treatment or Cure to Covid19 and then if the Carnival share price is not bankrupt buy some then.

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7 hours ago, amatuercruiser said:

 

4 The court cases against Cruise lines. have not started yet

 

5 Laying ships up is still expensive, wild guess %40 of normal running costs.

I will comment on two of your points. 🙂

 

Any court case would have to prove that the cruise line was negligent. That would be difficult. Even with the Diamond Princess, the company was following the directions given by the Japanese Health Ministry in keeping people on board. The American CDC report states that the passengers acquired the infections before the ship went into quarantine, that is before it was known that there had been a covid infection on board. It also stated that some of the crew who became infected in the crew dining room after the quarantine was put in place. In this circumstance, maybe the crew might have a chance of success in a court case. With the other ships with infections (Grand and Ruby) I can't see any grounds to sue, unless it is someone in the community who acquired the infection second-hand after the passengers were allowed to disembark.

 

I doubt that the cost of laying up ships is "40% of normal running costs". The cruiseline is paying only a small number of crew, very little for food, supplies and fuel and hardly anything for port fees. After the excess crew are flown home, the cruiseline is not paying airfares and other expenses for leaving crew and joining crew.

 

I would not hazard a guess on what the costs would total, but it would be nowhere near 40%.

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On the topic of court cases, an Attorney Genera in the US is investigating bad business behaviour with NCL.

 

Nothing to say it happened here, but out of the US sales offices, NCL was downplaying, and even lying about coronavirus issues to encourage the sale, and/or discourage people wanting to cancel. 

 

For those who were in the process of booking a cruise, the company encouraged employees to use the following sales technique to get people to book:

“Due to the Coronavirus we have cancelled all of our Asia cruises on the Norwegian Spirit. This has caused a huge surge in demand for all of our other itineraries. I suggest we secure your reservation today to avoid you paying more tomorrow.”

For customers who were concerned about coronavirus, staff were instructed to use the following one liners to reassure them:

  • “The only thing you need to worry about for your cruise is do you have enough sunscreen?”
  • “The Coronavirus can only survive in cold temperatures, so the Caribbean is a fantastic choice for your next cruise.”
  • “Scientists and medical professionals have confirmed that the warm weather of the spring will be the end of the Coronavirus.”
  • Coronavirus “cannot live in the amazingly warm and tropical temperatures that your cruise will be sailing to.”

I've read of some customers on corona-virus affected cruises not happy with this, and aside from the AG, may result in further action.

 

Sadly, another example of the dollar prioritised sales culture in place.

 

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On 3/30/2020 at 6:09 AM, Aus Traveller said:

 

I would not hazard a guess on what the costs would total, but it would be nowhere near 40%.

 

Wedbush analyst James Hardiman said in a note on Tuesday that Carnival is suffering "a monthly cash burn of approximately $500 million" and the fresh injection of cash should keep the company afloat for the next 12 to 13 months.

 

Ok so Laying up is Costing Carnival $500 M a month. That's $3 Billion for 6 Months worst case..I think that is do able and survivable for Carnival.

Edited by amatuercruiser
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6 hours ago, Kiwi Kruzer said:

Just gone to single digits...

 

 

 

Note the dividend return reading ......I think that may change. 🤭

 

 I think the Market is also forward  Price factoring in the Diluting effect of  EXTRA approx "1 Billion" shares that Carnival are issuing.

 

Carnival issued a statement stopping the Dividend.

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Do you think the CCL, RCL share price has Bottomed?

 

I think the approx 80% price drop in Carnival and  RCL share price,  prices-in a lot of future pain..but, it does not necessarily mean you are buying at the best time!

 

I think Carnivals Bond refinancing is good and timely but.

 

Right now Carnival's last Cruises are having enormous trouble disembarking crew. (Sydney Australia issues etc.)

 

The world-wide lock-down has 6 weeks minimum to go.

 

After lockdown ends  ships will have to get approval from Health authorities that they are safe! Possibly another 6 weeks delay.

 

So what will happen to the share price in the next 12 weeks?

 

Will any one have any paid holiday leave, to go on a holiday let alone a cruise ship.

Will any one have any disposable income left after 6 to 12 Week of lock-down.

 

If you buy now and the cruise line goes into bankruptcy you have kissed your money goodbye.

 

Carnival is no longer a $50 stock  but it might in the future be a $20-$30 Stock.

 

I am going to wait out a few weeks and bump out the bottom, passed bankruptcy and then look at cruise lines or Berkshire (I figure BRK can't go Bankrupt).

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As someone mentioned above I would hold off on purchasing those shares until we see a resumption date that actually occurs and then when the ships are sailing again and taking their first batch of passengers is the safest time to purchase. At present it is not known if the cruise lines can survive this, if the companies will be forced to break apart and ditch some lines or sell off ships. Its a big unknown. 

 

I have personally purchased Qantas shares and a great deal of them in the recent weeks. I am confident that Qantas will survive. It is a gamble but I will wait and see. My next move will be to banking shares and I am investigating other companies to invest in at the moment.

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I am considering investing more in Carnival shares. I already have 100. The current price is US$8.00 + some cents. In the past they have been as high as the mid $60s, but if cruising re-starts, it is reasonable to think the shares could rise to $25-$30. That is what I would be looking for, capital gain. As I already have shares, I can't get more OBC.

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37 minutes ago, Aus Traveller said:

it is reasonable to think the shares could rise to $25-$30. That is what I would be looking for, capital gain.

Capital gain is likely all you will get.

 

The approx 4% Dividend of  $2 a $50 Carnival share ...Once apon a time ago. Was good. Plus OBC made it even more appealing.

 

The Carnival dividend is now officially stopped.

 

If all Cruise ships start again I think it would be at least one year before the dividend could be justified. Especially since they have to now pay down $6 Billion in emergency finance.

 

The share holder on Board Credit I imagine will continue but there is no guarantee.

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1 hour ago, Aus Traveller said:
1 hour ago, Aus Traveller said:

am considering investing more in Carnival shares. I already have 100.


I have my 100 as well so just purchased 100 NCL shares and now looking at Royal. Cover all my bases for OBC :-)

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1 hour ago, amatuercruiser said:

Capital gain is likely all you will get.

The approx 4% Dividend of  $2 a $50 Carnival share ...Once apon a time ago. Was good. Plus OBC made it even more appealing.

The Carnival dividend is now officially stopped.

If all Cruise ships start again I think it would be at least one year before the dividend could be justified. Especially since they have to now pay down $6 Billion in emergency finance.

The share holder on Board Credit I imagine will continue but there is no guarantee.

I have been receiving the dividend plus OBC. With several cruises a year, my investment has been worthwhile, but now, it is worth much less ☹️. I wouldn't expect dividends for a couple of years, but I feel it is likely Carnival will keep offering the OBC. If they didn't a lot of shareholders would sell.

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  • 2 months later...

I think a lot of the current movement is from the same people/companies buying and selling in bulk quantities and manipulating he market to make a short term profit (albeit very short term), Rather than anything the cruise line industry is actually doing.

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3 minutes ago, MicCanberra said:

I think a lot of the current movement is from the same people/companies buying and selling in bulk quantities and manipulating he market to make a short term profit (albeit very short term), Rather than anything the cruise line industry is actually doing.

 

 

June 2019 Carnival Cruise line fills ship 102% occupancy, Casino, Restaurants Buzz passengers happy Cruise ship Share price stay same or goes up a tiny  Bit, Company pays small Dividend.

 

May 2020 Cruise company Carnival announces no cruises until November, ships sit idle, Dividend cancelled..share price rises %300 from $9 to 40.  

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4 minutes ago, MicCanberra said:

Yes, the big drops happened at the first announcement of not cruising until June, then they had the semi recovery from the re-mortgaging of the lines but since then it is basically just having small ups and downs.

 

 

Small ups and downs of share market one thing...... but CCL (OFFICIALLY) Loosing $4.5 Billion in a quarter I think is unrecoverable. Hertz, Carnival, RCL,Norwegian I think are heading for Chap 11 .. (Through no fault of the cruise lines.)

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1 hour ago, amatuercruiser said:

 

 

Small ups and downs of share market one thing...... but CCL (OFFICIALLY) Loosing $4.5 Billion in a quarter I think is unrecoverable. Hertz, Carnival, RCL,Norwegian I think are heading for Chap 11 .. (Through no fault of the cruise lines.)

I don't have your optimism, I think they (cruise lines) will survive

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