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Moby Jones

RCL Share Price

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I think there is room to fall still for RCL. 

 

I think they will all bounce back up when people realize the world isn't ending and they still want their 'affordable luxuries'.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Prost Seattle said:

I’m tracking the stock prices and may buy the 100 shares later on.  

Like wise.  If it goes to 75 probably will buy in.  

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I think that THIS is a good buying opportunity. Airline stocks, Rcl and other well run companies that have taken a beating are going to  rebound as soon as this scare is over. Remember not one US citizen has died.

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it still has room to go lower.  China is a major market for RCCL.  When this is over, and things stabilize, it will return to its normal price level.  I am holding my shares. 

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Buy Buy Buy!! This is coming from a guy who was sooooo sure Ford would recover big time after it dropped from 100+ to 40 or so........I ended up selling at 8. Oh well, Always good to take investment advice from me.

 

Now that I posted that, no one really knows the bottom but I’m watching and will buy in when it stabilizes. I’ll miss the actual bottom, but that’s the way it is. Its an interesting stock. I bought it back in 2009 for the 100 share deal. I won’t say how much since its not important, except to me. My advisor told me that stock was too risky, but I bought in anyway because of the OBC deals. A year later, my advisor bought in and Not for the OBC. 

 

Den

 

 

 

 

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I mostly play around with stock options, cruise line stocks aren't something I would hold.

 

I shorted a little CCL stock when the reality of the Diamond Princess situation began to hit.

 

Today I purchased some long(ish) calls on NCL because they were dirt cheap and I do expect NCL to go back to $50ish. 

 

NOT A FINANCIAL EXPERT I MOSTLY TREAT THIS MONEY AS GAMBLING. DO NOT FOLLOW MY ADVICE.

 

I leave my actual retirement accounts the heck alone. 

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For what it's worth and I believe not much. I believe that there are other signs of trouble for RCL stock beyond coronavirus. Cutbacks might be a sign that the bottom line might be in need of repair. Key staff moving to competitors might be a sign of weakness. Cuts in the loyalty program are a red flag for me. Stocks sometimes have a life of their own and don't reflect investing potential. However, RCL might be a trade soon and I'll be tempted to buy and hold for a pop in price.

Edited by Orator

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11 minutes ago, AlyssaJames said:

 

 

NOT A FINANCIAL EXPERT I MOSTLY TREAT THIS MONEY AS GAMBLING. DO NOT FOLLOW MY ADVICE.

 

 

 

Thinking about watching this for a while but the Jan 2021 $110 call is looking awfully good for $550


Yes I still think this goes down now

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3 minutes ago, josh.vincent.180 said:

 

Thinking about watching this for a while but the Jan 2021 $110 call is looking awfully good for $550


Yes I still think this goes down now

 

I assume you mean for RC?

 

The only reason I went with calls on NCL (when RC may legitimately have more headroom) is that I know NCL is currently run by the most profit-hungry execs in the industry, hence their ever-growing 'nickle and dime' rep. If they can figure out how to continue to squeeze every cent out of every sailing, they may rebound faster. I also don't think they have as many ships in Asia, but I could be wrong (didn't look it up). They also had record earnings last quarter. (Although like all other lines they admit the immediate future will be crap.) 

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Another factor to consider is fuel pricing, which is really low now, around $50 a barrel, or less. It’s a major component in their cost. If, for whatever reason, if it starts to climb steadily, you haven’t seen the bottom in the stock price. Some of us who have been around cruising for a long time can remember when it was over $100 a barrel and they imposed a $14 p.p. per day, p.p. ($140 max) surcharge for a short period of time. I believe the trigger point, where they can add a surcharge if they want, is $65 per barrel.

 

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3 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Another factor to consider is fuel pricing, which is really low now, around $50 a barrel, or less. It’s a major component in their cost. If, for whatever reason, if it starts to climb steadily, you haven’t seen the bottom in the stock price. Some of us who have been around cruising for a long time can remember when it was over $100 a barrel and they imposed a $14 p.p. per day, p.p. ($140 max) surcharge for a short period of time. I believe the trigger point, where they can add a surcharge if they want, is $65 per barrel.

 

 

I think we can see $30-35 per barrel, this is when I start catching knives in gas companies.

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Forget the pundits and the chartists....and MSNBC and be a bit wary of information coming out of the US government....this is an election year so facts can take on a political overtone (on either side) 🙂  Think about the cruise industry.......think about if COVID-19 spreads (very highly likely) to the US....think about cruise ships being refused docking like the MSC ship.  In that environment, do you think folks will still go on cruises?   I'm sure there will be vaccines, drugs developed quickly....but would you make the final payment on a cruise today or next month?  Would you even take a "deal" on a cruise in early summer if folks do cancel out?  

 

I'm holding...but I bought my 100 shares for $1400.....and I'll hold them because I'm a very long term investor.  

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2 hours ago, Denny01 said:

Buy Buy Buy!! This is coming from a guy who was sooooo sure Ford would recover big time after it dropped from 100+ to 40 or so........I ended up selling at 8. Oh well, Always good to take investment advice from me.

 

Now that I posted that, no one really knows the bottom but I’m watching and will buy in when it stabilizes. I’ll miss the actual bottom, but that’s the way it is. Its an interesting stock. I bought it back in 2009 for the 100 share deal. I won’t say how much since its not important, except to me. My advisor told me that stock was too risky, but I bought in anyway because of the OBC deals. A year later, my advisor bought in and Not for the OBC. 

 

Den

 

 

 

 


I bought Mar 2009 as well.  only bought it at the time for the OBC as well.
 

For those thinking of buying, for reference in mar of 2009, the stock hit around $5.  The all time high at the time was I think around $30 when it collapsed.  
 

Point is, cruise stocks are crazy volatile in a time like this and still likely has a long way to fall.  Just one Coronavirus case in the Caribbean or one more quarantined ship especially and RCI and this will bottom out.  I’d wait until the Coronavirus looks like it’s resolving which could be quite some time.  It will rebound eventually without question.  Just a matter of time.

 

I have had my RCi stock over 10 years and finally sold out on Monday.   Will buy back in eventually.

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2 hours ago, Denny01 said:

Buy Buy Buy!! This is coming from a guy who was sooooo sure Ford would recover big time after it dropped from 100+ to 40 or so........I ended up selling at 8. Oh well, Always good to take investment advice from me.

 

Now that I posted that, no one really knows the bottom but I’m watching and will buy in when it stabilizes. I’ll miss the actual bottom, but that’s the way it is. Its an interesting stock. I bought it back in 2009 for the 100 share deal. I won’t say how much since its not important, except to me. My advisor told me that stock was too risky, but I bought in anyway because of the OBC deals. A year later, my advisor bought in and Not for the OBC. 

 

Den

 

 

 

 

Ford pays a hell of a dividend 🙂

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25 minutes ago, ghstudio said:

Forget the pundits and the chartists....and MSNBC and be a bit wary of information coming out of the US government....this is an election year so facts can take on a political overtone (on either side) 🙂  Think about the cruise industry.......think about if COVID-19 spreads (very highly likely) to the US....think about cruise ships being refused docking like the MSC ship.  In that environment, do you think folks will still go on cruises?   I'm sure there will be vaccines, drugs developed quickly....but would you make the final payment on a cruise today or next month?  Would you even take a "deal" on a cruise in early summer if folks do cancel out?  

 

I'm holding...but I bought my 100 shares for $1400.....and I'll hold them because I'm a very long term investor.  

I also bought my 100 shares in 2019 and am holding-not selling. RCL has taken about a $50 hit and people are running to get out. This is the time to BUY. In 2009 things looked terrible but that was the time to buy.I have been in the stock market and the time to buy is when everyone is scared and selling.

I am currently on a cruise and the Future Cruise desks are jammed. I just made a final payment that only had a $200 deposit for an European cruise. I'll take my chances.

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Just imagine the cancellation rate if one person on a Caribbean sailing tests positive and the ship gets put into a Diamond Princess style quarantine?  Same with the Med. Imagine almost 8000 passengers and crew on an Oasis size ship sequestered for weeks.  Imagine all the negative press.  How many ports will then close their doors to all cruise ships?  How many travelers would be willing to fly?

 

These stocks are uninvestible until situation stabilizes.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Orator said:

For what it's worth and I believe not much. I believe that there are other signs of trouble for RCL stock beyond coronavirus. Cutbacks might be a sign that the bottom line might be in need of repair. Key staff moving to competitors might be a sign of weakness. Cuts in the loyalty program are a red flag for me. Stocks sometimes have a life of their own and don't reflect investing potential. However, RCL might be a trade soon and I'll be tempted to buy and hold for a pop in price.

Why would employees of RCCL move to a competitor? Corona will not discriminate be effecting one cruise company and not another. It is effective ports and passengers all over the World.

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6 minutes ago, az_tchr said:

Why would employees of RCCL move to a competitor? Corona will not discriminate be effecting one cruise company and not another. It is effective ports and passengers all over the World.

They moved long before the current situation. Their movement  to other lines has nothing to do with coronavirus. Two very popular HDs went to Princess. seems that there are lots of new Cruise Directors who have replaced very popular CDs. New Retreat Hosts on almost all cruises I've recently been on. Great turnover in Captain's Club as well. Why all the changes? We'll never know for certain, but to me it's a sign of troubled waters. Of course I could be wrong in my interpretation.

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I'm doing a little price averaging and picked up some shares in after hours for $79 this afternoon.   Long term hold -- no,  but expect to see some continued volatility. 

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2 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

 

These stocks are uninvestible until situation stabilizes.


Or if you want shareholder benefits, they’re on sale. 

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Posted (edited)

Well they closed yesterday at $65.01 an apparent 5 year low. 

Can they fall much further before people start to see the long term value? 

Edited by Moby Jones

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