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RCL Share Price

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6 minutes ago, marieps said:

As stated in an earlier post, I made money on RCL and plan to make more, just at the right price for re-entry.  We were really talking about risk.  Lots of companies defy the fundamentals, true enough.  Until they don't.

I think its a pipe dream that this gets back to 53 but I hope you are right.

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7 minutes ago, XuGator said:

I think its a pipe dream that this gets back to 53 but I hope you are right.

I hope I'm wrong.   I'd applaud the days of $135, whether I was in at the right point or not.    That would mean RCL/X is back in black and a survivor.  There's other fish out there.  Have a profitable day! 

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1 hour ago, XuGator said:

Its amazing that people are still trying to justify completely missing the mark on this stock by sharing even more data points and "target prices" which are the very reason they lost money in the first place. You can manage your portfolios as you please but many times stocks defy logic and defy "the fundamentals". Nobody can predict the market and people who claim they know the exact driving catalyst and forces behind movement never seem to fare well in the market. To each his own, I will continue to sit back and watch RCL and other travel industry stocks soar and continue to be thankful for the fearful who drive the prices down.

Amen, I am not trying to make any statements with my portfolio. I went into buying the stock based on my gut, at a level that I could afford to lose if it turned out that way. 

 

At this writing, I am + 139% but am staying with my original plan to keep it for a while longer since I did not expect early returns like we’re seeing. I fully thought that it was a longer-term investment based on the recent resumption of business in general. The ability of the cruise companies to get funding supports my assumption that they will survive and if everyone else is as ready as I am to go cruising again, they will thrive. 

 

I just booked two cruises this week for 2021. I am waiting to see what is available this summer and want to do 2-3 cruises.

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3 hours ago, XuGator said:

Its amazing that people are still trying to justify completely missing the mark on this stock by sharing even more data points and "target prices" which are the very reason they lost money in the first place. You can manage your portfolios as you please but many times stocks defy logic and defy "the fundamentals". Nobody can predict the market and people who claim they know the exact driving catalyst and forces behind movement never seem to fare well in the market. To each his own, I will continue to sit back and watch RCL and other travel industry stocks soar and continue to be thankful for the fearful who drive the prices down.

 

A speculator such as yourself may succeed over the very short term by buying a stock just because it is going up.  Trees grow to the sky.  Damn the fundamentals, full speed ahead.  Never mind that RCL will have no revenue for much of this year,  that they are burning through $ hundreds of millions in cash each month., that they have no idea when sailing will resume, that in the last few months they have doubled their debt, that losses this year will wipe out roughly 1/3 of their equity,  that after being given clearance to resume sailing it will take months to crew-up, that they will at least initially sail at reduced capacity, that a good portion of their customer base may be lost until a vaccine has been approved and widely distributed,  that a future outbreak onboard could cause the industry to shut own again.   An investor attempts to evaluate these risks and estimate how long it will take RCL to get back to the level of profitability it enjoyed  6 months ago.  Much easier for you though, what's going up will continue to go up.  Should be back  to $130 in what, a week?

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1 minute ago, Baron Barracuda said:

 

A speculator such as yourself may succeed over the very short term by buying a stock just because it is going up.  Trees grow to the sky.  Damn the fundamentals, full speed ahead.  Never mind that RCL will have no revenue for much of this year,  that they are burning through $ hundreds of millions in cash each month., that they have no idea when sailing will resume, that in the last few months they have doubled their debt, that losses this year will wipe out roughly 1/3 of their equity,  that after being given clearance to resume sailing it will take months to crew-up, that they will at least initially sail at reduced capacity, that a good portion of their customer base may be lost until a vaccine has been approved and widely distributed,  that a future outbreak onboard could cause the industry to shut own again.   An investor attempts to evaluate these risks and estimate how long it will take RCL to get back to the level of profitability it enjoyed  6 months ago.  Much easier for you though, what's going up will continue to go up.  Should be back  to $130 in what, a week?

Not speculating at all - just pointing out that many people missed the mark on this stock. It’s pretty simple.  I personally have not made any predictions other than refusing to buy into the doomsday scenarios that so many on this thread attempted to peddle. 
 

Have you seen the sales and bookings for 2021? Clearly they aren’t losing any of their customer base. 

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I am sorry to see some of the hostility displayed in some of the posts on this thread, and I am at a bit of a loss to understand why, other than maybe the fact that everyone's nerves are a little frayed with everything happening out there.

 

There are (more or less) three possibilities for the future for companies in the travel industry.  A given company either goes broke or out of business, or the company stays alive but at a reduced level of occupancy and profitability for the long term, or the company comes back to its former level of occupancy and profitability within the nearer term (one year?  two years?).  Obviously this might vary by industry.  Hotels might come back more successfully than cruise lines.  Airlines might come back more successfully than hotels.  And individual companies within an industry may have different futures.  Cruise line "A" might go broke while cruise line "B" might prosper.  

If you are an investor, you might be inclined to pay your money and take your chances, based on your perception as to where Royal Caribbean, or Delta Airlines, or Marriott hotels end up in 6 months to a year.  I did.  But there is really no need for snark, whether you decided to invest, sit on the sidelines, or sell short.

 

Tom & Judy

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Posted (edited)

It will be interesting to see what happens on Monday to the overall equity market when the miscalculation that the BLS made and continues to make sinks in.  The real unemployment rate is in the 16.3% range, much closer to the estimates by virtually all economists prior to the release.

 

From the BLS website:

 

However, it is apparent that not all such workers were so classified. BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking additional steps to address the issue.

If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other reasons" (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical May) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis).

Edited by ECCruise

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What’s interesting is there is obvious pent up demand for cruising, so even if every cruise line filed bankruptcy, there will be some corporate entity taking over the ships.  Of course the most likely entity is themselves in a reorganization.    Hopefully we won’t see any bankruptcies.  I suspect a healthy bump when cruising begins, and another healthy bump when it remains cruising without problems.  There is money to be made in the industry, tjat’s for sure.  Good luck to those of you with the assents, guts, and patience. 

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19 hours ago, XuGator said:

Not speculating at all - just pointing out that many people missed the mark on this stock. It’s pretty simple.  I personally have not made any predictions other than refusing to buy into the doomsday scenarios that so many on this thread attempted to peddle. 
 

Have you seen the sales and bookings for 2021? Clearly they aren’t losing any of their customer base. 

Fain recently categorized 2021 bookings as "within historical range vs same time last year".  Need to recognize however that much of 2021 volume is merely application of FCC's from 2020 cancellations.   Marketwatch estimates ex-FCC's, 2021 bookings are actually down 15% - 20%.  Lift and shift and Cruise with Confidence also inflate 2021 bookings as they merely push reservations back a year without raising fresh cash.   Even on non-CWC eligible reservations there is no telling how many will cancel at final payment date should the virus persist and a vaccine or a strong therapeutic not emerge.  Only time will tell.

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53 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Fain recently categorized 2021 bookings as "within historical range vs same time last year".  Need to recognize however that much of 2021 volume is merely application of FCC's from 2020 cancellations.   Marketwatch estimates ex-FCC's, 2021 bookings are actually down 15% - 20%.  Lift and shift and Cruise with Confidence also inflate 2021 bookings as they merely push reservations back a year without raising fresh cash.   Even on non-CWC eligible reservations there is no telling how many will cancel at final payment date should the virus persist and a vaccine or a strong therapeutic not emerge.  Only time will tell.

I would guess at least down 15-20%. 

And if you Lift and Shift 2 cruises, like we did yesterday, it is a gain for a 2021 sailing.  But the loss of a 2020 sailing for which the cruise line will never bank a penny of revenue.

This really is pretty basic.  Cruise lines are going to have a tough road to hoe. I would guess that 50-60% or more of people here on a forum for cruise addicts are reticent to cruise.  The general public that I have contact with (Spoiler: Not a scientific sample) runs about 80% negative.  And they think that people willing to cruise until this all sorts out are absolutely certifiable. 

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3 hours ago, ECCruise said:

I would guess at least down 15-20%. 

And if you Lift and Shift 2 cruises, like we did yesterday, it is a gain for a 2021 sailing.  But the loss of a 2020 sailing for which the cruise line will never bank a penny of revenue.

This really is pretty basic.  Cruise lines are going to have a tough road to hoe. I would guess that 50-60% or more of people here on a forum for cruise addicts are reticent to cruise.  The general public that I have contact with (Spoiler: Not a scientific sample) runs about 80% negative.  And they think that people willing to cruise until this all sorts out are absolutely certifiable. 

Count me as one of the cruise addicts that is NOT reticent to cruise again. I will go tomorrow if it were available. I would like to hear from the other (un-scientific) cruisers who have the same inclination!

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3 minutes ago, JimInBuffalo said:

Count me as one of the cruise addicts that is NOT reticent to cruise again. I will go tomorrow if it were available. I would like to hear from the other (un-scientific) cruisers who have the same inclination!

Have at it. I was on an affected cruise in March and you couldn't pay me, literally,to get on a ship until this is sorted out. And that was after over 3 years total on ships. Different world now. 

Enjoy. 

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1 hour ago, JimInBuffalo said:

Count me as one of the cruise addicts that is NOT reticent to cruise again. I will go tomorrow if it were available. I would like to hear from the other (un-scientific) cruisers who have the same inclination!

Good to see volunteer guinea pigs for the early return to cruising. I'll wait and see how it works out for you.

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16 hours ago, JimInBuffalo said:

Count me as one of the cruise addicts that is NOT reticent to cruise again. I will go tomorrow if it were available. I would like to hear from the other (un-scientific) cruisers who have the same inclination!

We are keeping our October 2020 TA on Apex. Can't wait to be on board!

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1 hour ago, C-Dragons said:

We are keeping our October 2020 TA on Apex. Can't wait to be on board!

 

Ditto!  😎

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On 6/6/2020 at 7:52 PM, JimInBuffalo said:

Count me as one of the cruise addicts that is NOT reticent to cruise again. I will go tomorrow if it were available. I would like to hear from the other (un-scientific) cruisers who have the same inclination!

I sailed on March 1st on the Edge, and I would be on the first ship back out of port.  The risk is quite low with modest precautions taken, imho.   

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On 6/6/2020 at 3:12 PM, Baron Barracuda said:

Fain recently categorized 2021 bookings as "within historical range vs same time last year".  Need to recognize however that much of 2021 volume is merely application of FCC's from 2020 cancellations.   Marketwatch estimates ex-FCC's, 2021 bookings are actually down 15% - 20%.  Lift and shift and Cruise with Confidence also inflate 2021 bookings as they merely push reservations back a year without raising fresh cash.   Even on non-CWC eligible reservations there is no telling how many will cancel at final payment date should the virus persist and a vaccine or a strong therapeutic not emerge.  Only time will tell.

Good call on this.  Up 5% again today and rising. 

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11 minutes ago, XuGator said:

Good call on this.  Up 5% again today and rising. 

 

We can discuss fundamentals all day long with the armchair experts. But in exceptional times like these market sentiment should never be underestimated. If I paid attention to the doomsday mentalities I wouldn't be up like I am now. 

Anyway, I certainly didn't believe that cruise line shares would dip by 15% - 20% today. In fact when I looked I was pleasantly surprised. Ignore the UK bank share prices. I've been shopping for those too in recent times. 🙂 

I'll be in and out with the cruise lines and airlines as and when I think there's an opportunity. 

Good luck all. DYOR! 


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2 hours ago, D C said:

I sailed on March 1st on the Edge, and I would be on the first ship back out of port.  The risk is quite low with modest precautions taken, imho.   

Booked on the Equinox this September, ready to go.  

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TY

Haven't been on the boards to look.

We have enough shares to manage the shareholders discount (IF they keep it in the coming year/s)

 

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5 hours ago, Fogfog said:

TY

Haven't been on the boards to look.

We have enough shares to manage the shareholders discount (IF they keep it in the coming year/s)

 

I just received it the other day for a cruise in Jan 2021.  🍷

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