Jump to content
Cruise Critic Community

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, NateUpNorth said:

 

So you're saying for every fund manager constrained by investment grade rating there isn't an offsetting value manager filling his boots right now?

You can find bond managers that will buy junk bonds, but they demand a much higher interest rate than higher grade bonds.  Higher interest rates mean more cost, thus lower earnings and cash flow.  This can result in a downward spiral.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, MADflyer said:

With a reduction of $1.7 billion in capital expenditures, might that mean that planned 'Royal Amplified' refurbishments might be postponed? They obviously can not cut Odyssey and Wonder, so would that not just leave planned refurbishments to cut? 

Allure goes in next week, 125 million +, in dry dock for 58 days.  Bought stock yesterday at 48.75, if trump calls a temp end to cruises I will double down.  Also picked up some carnival at 21.88 yesterday. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, PatMunits said:

 

This credit-worthiness downgrade will have material negative impact on the stock price. Numerous mutual funds are not permitted to hold securities below specific investment grade level. The fund managers may believe that RCL presents a lucrative investment opportunity at current price but with the downgrade they will be forced to sell their RCL holdings. This means there will be further negative pressure on the price, and consequently it means that now is not time to buy if all other things remain the same.

Presume you are talking about bond fund managers having to sell.  Not typically an issue for equity funds.  If it was they couldn't hold high flyers like Tesla and Netflix.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Presume you are talking about bond fund managers having to sell.  Not typically an issue for equity funds.  If it was they couldn't hold high flyers like Tesla and Netflix.

 

I think you're correct. If I'm invested with a "value manager" I'd be expecting him/her to be spending like a drunken sailor right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, MADflyer said:

With a reduction of $1.7 billion in capital expenditures, might that mean that planned 'Royal Amplified' refurbishments might be postponed? They obviously can not cut Odyssey and Wonder, so would that not just leave planned refurbishments to cut? 

Minor point, but it doesn’t say a $1.7B reduction in capital expenditures. The $1.7B increase in liquidity will be done by reducing capital expenditures and other actions. 
 

mac_tlc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting piece on Bloomberg this morning.  Main point was it is unlikely that the US Gov. would bail out the cruise lines.  They think the focus would be toward the airlines given they play a integral role in the overall economy.  Guess my gamble on RCL and CCL on Monday was a bit premature...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, 20165 said:

Interesting piece on Bloomberg this morning.  Main point was it is unlikely that the US Gov. would bail out the cruise lines.  They think the focus would be toward the airlines given they play a integral role in the overall economy.  Guess my gamble on RCL and CCL on Monday was a bit premature...

 


I cannot imagine any scenario where they would bail out the cruise lines.  In 2008,  they HAD to bail out the banks.  If they didn’t,  the whole economy would have imploded.

 

The economy will not implode if cruise lines stop running.   Some people won’t get the vacation they expected but the cruise lines do not support a huge chunk of the US economy.   They support a large number of foreign workers and primarily foreign ports.  Only handful of ports are US.  The biggest impact I can see on the US economy from cruise lines is the impact on the embarkation ports of MIA and FLL and PC.  
 

While other embarkation port cities appreciate the jobs and boost to the local economies the cruise lines give them, Baltimore, NYC, San Diego, Tampa, Los Angeles, New Orleans, Seattle, Charleston, Mobile, and Galveston do not rely on cruising as the primary driver of their local economy. Each city has a much larger economy that is not cruising based.

 

Cruising while a very large industry is not something the US needs to survive.  Banks and airlines are vital, cruising is not..... at least to most people.  Lol.

Edited by rimmit

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, rimmit said:


 The biggest impact I can see on the US economy from cruise lines is the impact on the embarkation ports of MIA and FLL and PC.  

Florida is tourism based.  We have no major industry beyond sunshine.  This is a service based economy with no state income taxes; we rely on sales tax revenue generated by out of state visitors. 

 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article241024641.html

 

I love cruising.  I do not support any bail out of the cruise industry.  Some kind of economic stimulus or re-training programs for displaced 1st, 2nd, 3rd tier workers in Florida, yes, I would support that.  Corporate hand outs are not appropriate for industries that have had half a decade or more of boom years with record profits and record corporate executive earnings. That all of these cruise lines are in such a massive cash crunch so suddenly speaks to the cash flow critical nature of the industry; but they all could have been better prepared to weather storms.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, LMaxwell said:

Florida is tourism based.  We have no major industry beyond sunshine.  This is a service based economy with no state income taxes; we rely on sales tax revenue generated by out of state visitors. 

 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article241024641.html

 

I love cruising.  I do not support any bail out of the cruise industry.  Some kind of economic stimulus or re-training programs for displaced 1st, 2nd, 3rd tier workers in Florida, yes, I would support that.  Corporate hand outs are not appropriate for industries that have had half a decade or more of boom years with record profits and record corporate executive earnings. That all of these cruise lines are in such a massive cash crunch so suddenly speaks to the cash flow critical nature of the industry; but they all could have been better prepared to weather storms.  


I agree Florida is hugely tourism based, I think the question to answer if they deserve a bailout is “Is Florida cruise based?”  It is the cruise capital of the world, but world Florida implode because cruises stop running? 
 

Florida still has Disney and tons of theme parks,  conventions, Miami (which is a destination in and of itself), endless beaches and resorts, and other tourist attractions.  While cruising is a huge component, would Florida implode without cruises?  I don’t know for certain, but I sincerely doubt it.  It would take a hit for sure. But how much of cruise industries money stays in FL and doesn’t float out into the ocean into other ports?  If they were to give a bailout, if I was the govt you can bet I’d leverage that into some future tax revenue big time.
 

I totally agree that cruise lines need to be better prepared for something like this.  For a one hit wonder such as cruise lines where they don’t have other ancillary revenue other than cruises,  they have to prepare for the down times better.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, rimmit said:


It is the cruise capital of the world, but world Florida implode because cruises stop running? 
 

 

I think you are greatly underestimating the potential economic ripple and double whammy of workers losing service level jobs that they can not easily find a substitute without additional training or education, and the loss of sales tax revenues for the state to operate.  

 

Perhaps the unintended upside of this will be in the face of sales tax revenue loss from tourism that the Florida legislature will put into law the will of the people, as voted on multiple times, regarding crops other than oranges and sugarcane that would fill the revenue void for the state. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bankruptcy or not the cruise industry will not shut down. They aren’t just going to let billions of dollars of assets sit idle. Someone will be operating the ships.


Sent from my iPhone using Forums

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, LMaxwell said:

I think you are greatly underestimating the potential economic ripple and double whammy of workers losing service level jobs that they can not easily find a substitute without additional training or education, and the loss of sales tax revenues for the state to operate.  

 

Perhaps the unintended upside of this will be in the face of sales tax revenue loss from tourism that the Florida legislature will put into law the will of the people, as voted on multiple times, regarding crops other than oranges and sugarcane that would fill the revenue void for the state. 


Yes,  agree the biggest whammy would be likely be the job loss and sales tax loss.  I just don’t see an implosion of Florida from the loss of the cruise industry.  Would it be rough, absolutely.  Would there be many more unemployed, absolutely.  Would there be a loss of sales tax from tourists that aren’t spending time in FL before and after a cruise absolutely.  
 

FL definitely garners more cruisers from across the country and internationally than other embarkation areas, especially off peak.  But how many people who cruise already live in FL, and thus they aren’t effecting sales tax loss  and hotel tax loss, etc?  I am not sure.
 

But a total implosion worthy of a bail out?  I don’t know.  I really don’t.   I agree it would be massive hit to FL, but would it be bail out level?

 

Just saying I don’t think Florida has put all its eggs in the cruise industry basket.  I don’t live there though, so I can’t say that for certain. 

Edited by rimmit

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, rimmit said:


 

But a total implosion worthy of a bail out?  I don’t know.  I really don’t.   I agree it would be massive hit to FL, but would it be bail out level?

 

The way I see it:  

 

Bail out cruise industry = handout to foreign entity.  Bad

Bail out to Florida citizens = not alienating the voting block most needed in an election year

 

Right or wrong, just my gut check 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Builder31 said:

Bankruptcy or not the cruise industry will not shut down. They aren’t just going to let billions of dollars of assets sit idle. Someone will be operating the ships.


Sent from my iPhone using Forums

 

Actually they may. The only do it if there's a market for it, and given the scenario described, there wouldn't be much of a market.

 

There are already many ships that currently sit idle, or worse get abandoned. The only thing that counts is whether they can make more money operating it than the cost of doing so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, rimmit said:

 

 

Just saying I don’t think Florida has put all its eggs in the cruise industry basket.  I don’t live there though, so I can’t say that for certain. 

 

Cruises are a relatively small portion of every port city's tourism base aside from Port Canaveral

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Aintnofun007 said:

Nobody was.  Everyone there said they had no idea he was going to say that.  That was yesterdays news and the markets punished all 3 major brand name stocks for cruiselines today 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, hotsauce126 said:

 

Cruises are a relatively small portion of every port city's tourism base aside from Port Canaveral

Cite the sources of your data.  

 

Look at the massive new terminals and infrastructure recently built and being built.  These are not small undertakings.  These are massive Public Private Partnerships.  Here is an example.  Look at the charge per head and do the math on revenue.  And that's just for Miami Dade county and JUST the head tax. https://www.miamitodaynews.com/2019/03/12/biggest-cruise-terminals-deal-ever-a-public-private-win-win/

Edited by LMaxwell

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Here is a tidbit of info regarding Port Everglades (Fort Lauderdale).  Cruises are not the entirety of these numbers, but gives you a glimpse 

 

As one of Florida’s leading economic powerhouses, Broward County’s Port Everglades is the gateway for international trade and cruise vacations. Consistently ranked among the top three busiest cruise home ports in the world, Port Everglades is also one of the nation’s leading container ports and South Florida’s main seaport for receiving petroleum products including gasoline, jet fuel and alternative fuels. The Port Everglades Department is a self-supporting Enterprise Fund of Broward County, Florida government with operating revenues of almost $168 million in Fiscal Year 2018 (ending September 30). It does not rely on local tax dollars for operations. The total value of economic activity related to Port Everglades is more than $30 billion, in addition to $1 billion-plus generated for state and local taxes annually. More than 230,000 Florida jobs are impacted by the Port, including over 13,000 people who work for companies that provide direct services to Port Everglades.

 

https://www.porteverglades.net/articles/post/glenn-wiltshire-named-acting-director-for-port-everglades/

Edited by LMaxwell

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From Forbes today.

Royal Caribbean stock has fared worse than the broader markets through the current crisis but it is possible that it could bounce back strongly and potentially outperform as the crisis winds down. For perspective, the stock rose 320% between March 2009 and January 2010, compared to a 48% rise for the S&P – bla bla bla .....

 

Conclusion

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/26/2020 at 1:44 PM, heidikay said:

Anybody watching the price drop?  Oh my I wonder it where it finish.  It is now at 82.28.

Closed at $30.27 on 3/12/2020.  How much lower will it go?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could someone please kindly tell those of us that are brand new shareholders what other benefits/perks we get?

We know about the $100 obc per sailing...anything else we should know or worth knowing?

Thank you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bonsai3s said:

Could someone please kindly tell those of us that are brand new shareholders what other benefits/perks we get?

We know about the $100 obc per sailing...anything else we should know or worth knowing?

Thank you.

Up to 5 nights is  $50, 6 to 12 nights $100, 13+ nights $250.

The OBC is the only benefit.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, bonsai3s said:

Could someone please kindly tell those of us that are brand new shareholders what other benefits/perks we get?

We know about the $100 obc per sailing...anything else we should know or worth knowing?

Thank you.

You get to hope RCI doesn’t go bankrupt through this. 🤔😀

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Forum Jump
    • Categories
      • Forum Assistance
      • New Cruisers
      • Cruise Lines “A – O”
      • Cruise Lines “P – Z”
      • River Cruising
      • ROLL CALLS
      • Digital Photography & Cruise Technology
      • Member Cruise Reviews
      • Special Interest Cruising
      • Cruise Discussion Topics
      • UK Cruising
      • Australia & New Zealand Cruisers
      • North American Homeports
      • Ports of Call
      • Cruise Conversations

Announcements

×
×
  • Create New...