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13 hours ago, irzero said:

Kodak's core business model was photo film which went practically extinct. Useless comparison.

Cruise lines are no different than any locked down business at the moment.

 

 

It proves the point that your statement was incorrect. Businesses do not always "adapt." Kodak is just one example.

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I just don't get it. A nonoperational company that provides a non-essential service when it is functioning. What am I missing?
Waiting patiently on the side for a drop. I believe the 3.8bn in credit line propped up the stock for now.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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6 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

I am pretty sure the ship has to be built here to only cruise in the U.S.

Generally, you are correct.  It literally took and act of congress to allow an exception for NCL America to flag 3 ships for use in Hawaii. Two were later reflagged.  One of the ships started construction in Pascagoula, Mississippi.  When the cruise line went bankrupt post 9/11.  A couple years later, NCL purchased the hull and towed to Germany to be completed there.

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On 3/25/2020 at 9:56 AM, Blizzard54 said:

I believe he is mistaken.   Passover will be very difficult for us.  Not only are we not suppose to get together,  ours has been hosted by my brother.  He succumbed to Covid-19 last week.  Our Rabbi put up a fight and the State allowed us to have a minion.   

I am sorry to hear about your brother.  

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5 hours ago, The_Big_M said:

I said fleet growth, not new ships. Edge has arrived - others have left.

How does one grow the fleet but with more/new/other ships?

 

By my count Celebrity fleet was at was at 10 ships 10 years ago and is at 14 now (2 Century class left and 3 Solstice, Edge and 2 Galapagos ships added) -  with Apex due next month delayed by COVID-19.

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11 hours ago, Blizzard54 said:

In todays press conference Trump even mentioned something about cruise line moving their registration to the US.  Under the PVSA that is not even possible.  The ships would have had to have been built in the US.  Also I believe it requires 75% of the crew to be US citizens.   Then there are all the US employment rules.  NCL tried to operate 3 ships in Hawaii under the US flag.  It failed because the costs were too high and they could not sufficiently staff the ships. 

I think the other problem NCL faced was that they were in competition with themselves. They pulled out two ships and then were able to charge a premium for cabins on the remaining ship.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Biker19 said:

How does one grow the fleet but with more/new/other ships?

 

By my count Celebrity fleet was at was at 10 ships 10 years ago and is at 14 now (2 Century class left and 3 Solstice, Edge and 2 Galapagos ships added) -  with Apex due next month delayed by COVID-19.

 

The response was not a comparison about date x vs date y, but a response to the argument that any ship can be deployed and capture a new market. If that were the case they would be growing much more than they had.

 

I was counting the removal of 3 ships and Galapagos only has 1 really added, the other is an interim one that they are stuck with for the moment due to the legalities. Solstice class was envisaged back 10 years back so is still the same, and Apex class has really just replaced the earlier 3. Basically it's a wash.

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No help for big cruise lines

The major cruise ship lines are shut out of the $2T coronavirus stimulus package headed for a vote today in the U.S. House, despite President Trump's desire to help them. The package limits aid to U.S.-incorporated companies with a majority of workers based in the U.S., two criteria that effectively exclude Carnival (NYSE:CCL), Norwegian (NYSE:NCLH) and Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL). "There's a risk that cruise ships are laid up for an extended period of time," said Wedbush analyst James Hardiman. "They'll continue to burn cash without any revenue coming in the door."

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On 3/26/2020 at 8:05 AM, Daytonasailor said:

Wrong on NCl. Last night it did not double. It was up 102%. RCl up 15.94%.

Has math changed? Isn't doubling the same as being up 100%?

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41 minutes ago, mayleeman said:

Has math changed? Isn't doubling the same as being up 100%?

semantics  

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Please DO NOT lose sight of what sets a company's stock price. You buy stock to share in future earnings of a company going out many years. In times like this, the future company views change daily, so that is why stock is zig-sawing. Nobody REALLY knows for sure what will happen. In addition, from my experience, investors ALWAYS overreact in both directions. 

 

So lets look at the extremes. On one end is business as usual, and we know that isn't happening, so this explains the stock drop. On the other end there are two possibilities; bankruptcy OR they could be purchased. We can most likely rule out a purchase, because all the other cruise lines are in the same boat (oh, I made a funny) and its unlikely they would have the excess cash. So that leave bankruptcy.  This is when a company doesn't have the money to pay its expenses and debts. All the cruise lines have lines of credit, and this is what they are drawing upon now for cash. 

 

So what are their expenses? We'll a good share of their crew is contractors, so no cost there, but they need a crew to maintain each ship, there are executive people employed, there are rents for terminals, and maintenance of facilities. 

 

So a lot will depend on how long this goes. I personally think it will take a vaccine to end it, and I give that 6 months at least. I think most of the cruise lines can make it that long, but some smaller ones, maybe not.

 

Also, I think it will be years before things return to "normal."  Which means some ships will likely go, and other new ones will be delayed, or cancelled. I also would be surprised to see new laws enacted.

 

I also will say, yes, I understand many people are upset about not going on their cruises, but don't lose sight that 1000's of people have lost their lives, and likely 50+ million people just in the U.S. have lost their jobs. Many people in the cruise industry no longer have jobs as well. So maybe be considerate about what you post. 

 

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21 hours ago, Dennis#1 said:

RCL share price closed today at $40.61 per share.  Was less than $20 per share last week.

and at $34 today

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2 hours ago, mayleeman said:

Has math changed? Isn't doubling the same as being up 100%?

Jeeze, really? I was saying it tongue in cheek. Actually it was 102%, so that would be more than double. Unless math has changed. 

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1 hour ago, rbell said:

and at $34 today

 

Up to near $50.00, and down the next day to $34, in large part to the "bailout" news. Amazed it took so long for anyone to figure that out. Yesterday was the only day I did not look at the stock. Had some things going on and was sick of seeing the stock move up everyday being overvalued. It got me. Could have ran a short but I'm sure TD would have said nothing available to short. Don't want BK though.

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I don’t know if it is going up or down tomorrow, but I am confident it will be zero by this time next year.

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23 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

I don’t know if it is going up or down tomorrow, but I am confident it will be zero by this time next year.

it's not doing either

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1 hour ago, cruisinfanatic said:

it's not doing either

LOL....this is what happens when people are home. They lose track of what day it is.

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38 minutes ago, crzndeb said:

LOL....this is what happens when people are home. They lose track of what day it is.

Kind of like being on a cruise.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, ed01106 said:

I don’t know if it is going up or down tomorrow, but I am confident it will be zero by this time next year.

Barrons put a buy on RC stock Friday with a 18 month price target of $80.00. No stimulus money for cruise lines, but a chapter 11 bk will wipe out all debt and let all operations continue as they reorganize and shareholders stake remains.  No stimulus money.. really.. Big banks will take the hit from the cruise lines and pass all that bad debt to the fed.  And as a side note additional funding and construction of  the Miami headquarters expansion was reaffirmed last Wednesday. 

Edited by taglovestocruise

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11 minutes ago, taglovestocruise said:

Barrons put a buy on RC stock Friday with a 18 month price target of $80.00. No stimulus money for cruise lines, but a chapter 11 bk will wipe out all debt and let all operations continue as they reorganize and shareholders stake remains.  No stimulus money.. really.. Big banks will take the hit from the cruise lines and pass all that bad debt to the fed.  And as a side note additional funding and construction of  the Miami headquarters expansion was reaffirmed last Wednesday. 

They need more corporate space for what?

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1 hour ago, taglovestocruise said:

Barrons put a buy on RC stock Friday with a 18 month price target of $80.00. No stimulus money for cruise lines, but a chapter 11 bk will wipe out all debt and let all operations continue as they reorganize and shareholders stake remains.  No stimulus money.. really.. Big banks will take the hit from the cruise lines and pass all that bad debt to the fed.  And as a side note additional funding and construction of  the Miami headquarters expansion was reaffirmed last Wednesday. 

Chapter 11 wipes out stock holder equity and the secure debt holders become the new stock holders.

 

The stock hits $80 in 18 months in the same fantasy world where the virus just magically vanishes and it is safe to pack the churches on Easter.

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

Chapter 11 wipes out stock holder equity and the secure debt holders become the new stock holders.

 

The stock hits $80 in 18 months in the same fantasy world where the virus just magically vanishes and it is safe to pack the churches on Easter.

When this is over in 2-3 months and the cruise industry starts chugging again, it will absolutely be 80 12-18 months out.

None of them (the big ones) will go out of business. They will get loans and continue.

Only the whack job president said Easter a few days ago and he's not saying it now

 

Edited by cruisinfanatic

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1 minute ago, cruisinfanatic said:

When this is over in 2-3 months and the cruise industry starts chugging again,

 

Could very well be wishful thinking on your part. I hope you are right, but I don't see it.

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2 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

Kind of like being on a cruise.

except you have to do your own cooking and cleaning......and mix your own cocktails.

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2 hours ago, taglovestocruise said:

Barrons put a buy on RC stock Friday with a 18 month price target of $80.00. No stimulus money for cruise lines, but a chapter 11 bk will wipe out all debt and let all operations continue as they reorganize and shareholders stake remains.  No stimulus money.. really.. Big banks will take the hit from the cruise lines and pass all that bad debt to the fed.  And as a side note additional funding and construction of  the Miami headquarters expansion was reaffirmed last Wednesday. 

Would they be subject to US bankruptcy law?

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