RCL Stock

[ed01106]

1 hour ago, Baron Barracuda said:

If this is true for CCL what does it imply for RCL?

It implies that investing in the cruise industry makes about as much sense as licking subway poles.

Edited March 31, 2020 by ed01106

[Biker19]

54 minutes ago, Wolf 8 said:

low profit margin due to cheap fares for low income clientele

That may apply to their Carnival brand, doubt it applies to most of the others, like Seabourn and Cunard.

Edited March 31, 2020 by Biker19

[RoyalC]

2 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

I find the CCL offering extremely disturbing.  They drew down a $3B line of credit only two weeks ago and now feel the need  for $6B in additional liquidity.  Worse, $3B of the additional funds will come from issuing stock and convertible bonds.  With CCL stock having dropped from $50 to $13 ytd (book value was recently $37) this is a terrible time to issue stock and implies they are desperate for cash and have no other alternative.  If this is true for CCL what does it imply for RCL?

 

Well, considering the stock analysts have told us that CCL has the best balance sheet, then it does not look so good, and this soon in the process, as you said!

[xpcdoojk]

On 3/25/2020 at 5:52 PM, bobmacliberty said:

Anytime that I think I have knowledge, or even just an inkling of a thought about how I may be able to predict what a stock might do, I'm already days/weeks/months behind the pros who make their living in the market.  And my thoughts are already priced into the stock.  It's easy to point out the wins...someone picked up Royal in the low 20s and has already seen it double.  How about the times where that didn't work?  Market timing is no way to make money consistently.

 

Saw an interesting article a few years ago about AI software that was being developed to analyze market news.  It would look for positive and negative words that would indicate an emotional shift in a particular stock that might be used to predict a future increase/decrease.  That either never happened, or someone is making a boatload of money with it and keeping it quiet.

 

My wealth manager already had me at about 30% in bonds and well diversified otherwise.  I'll wait on the sidelines until they decide it's time to shift back to stronger equity plays.  The Royal shareholder discount is meaningless in the big picture.

As an economist who spent way too much time in gradual school.  The Random walk theory is still true.

 

All known information is present in today’s value of an item/stock.  Knowing which way it will go tomorrow is absolutely random (assuming you don’t have insider information).  What I am saying is experts have the same probability of saying it will go up tomorrow as someone throwing a dart at the the stock listing and hitting a winner tomorrow.  

 

Which means it is good to be a Senator getting secret information and trading upon it.

 

jc

[xpcdoojk]

Wow, tried to post that several days ago.  

 

Don’t you all feel kind of dirty posting on this thread.

 

I mean there is absolutely nothing going on that any of us understand or that applies to normal life.  We are in completely uncharted waters, and yet we try to talk like we know what is going to happen.

 

sigh.

 

jc

[Blizzard54]

1 hour ago, xpcdoojk said:

Wow, tried to post that several days ago.  

 

Don’t you all feel kind of dirty posting on this thread.

 

I mean there is absolutely nothing going on that any of us understand or that applies to normal life.  We are in completely uncharted waters, and yet we try to talk like we know what is going to happen.

 

sigh.

 

jc

You did post that a few days ago.  When I just read it I thought I accidently went back a few pages.  I knew I had read it before.

 

I think a lot of the posting her is getting to be just something to do....going a bit stir crazy.

[xDisconnections]

4 hours ago, Wolf 8 said:

 

I've never wasted a minute investigating CCL's financials because I believe my lyin' eyes.  CCL has worked for decades to become the cruise industry's garbage can.  CCL poses a lethal danger to their passengers, crews and the ports that service their boats.  On it's worst day RCL is a far better company than CCL can ever be due to the bare bones nature of CCL's business model (low profit margin due to cheap fares for low income clientele).

 

RCL's existential problem remains this:  Until there is a vaccine how can cruise ships come and go for a week or two without apparently healthy people onboard spreading Corona-19 and turning a pleasure cruise into another a death ship?

 

 

Carnival Corporation operates several brands at premium price points. Carnival Cruise Line is only one of its subsidiaries.

[The_Big_M]

6 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

I find the CCL offering extremely disturbing.  They drew down a $3B line of credit only two weeks ago and now feel the need  for $6B in additional liquidity.  Worse, $3B of the additional funds will come from issuing stock and convertible bonds.  With CCL stock having dropped from $50 to $13 ytd (book value was recently $37) this is a terrible time to issue stock and implies they are desperate for cash and have no other alternative.  If this is true for CCL what does it imply for RCL?

 

You're right, but it's actually a clever move. It's indicative that the impacts will be further out than the May/June most lines are publically saying, which those analysing can see. That means extra finances are required - in which case it's a much better move to do it now than later when:

a) lending conditions are stricter, 

b) pressure is greater

c) share price may well be lower

 

I don't see it as literally being an issue with their current funding or situation, just that the situation will not be resolved as quickly as previous announcements claim.

[Ourusualbeach]

8 hours ago, The_Big_M said:

I don't see it as literally being an issue with their current funding or situation, just that the situation will not be resolved as quickly as previous announcements claim

This statement from Carnival certainly suggests that it will be a longer pause.

 

"During the pause in our global fleet cruise operations, certain of our ships will be in warm ship lay up where the ship will be manned by a full crew and certain of our ships will be in a prolonged ship lay up where the ship will be manned by a limited crew," Carnival said.

"We will decide whether each vessel in our global fleet will be in a warm ship lay up or a prolonged ship lay up depending on the circumstances, including the length of pause, which we expect to be extended and may be prolonged," the company said.

"We currently estimate the substantial majority of our fleet will be in prolonged ship layup," Carnival said, in the filing. 

 

[Ocean Boy]

4 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

 

"We currently estimate the substantial majority of our fleet will be in prolonged ship layup," Carnival said, in the filing. 

 

A little touch of reality. How refreshing.

[Ourusualbeach]

12 minutes ago, irzero said:

And yet royal still trying to sell May cruises in the Med.



Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
 

So are most of the cruise lines, including Carnival 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Ourusualbeach

[Builder31]

Am I wrong to think no cruise ship will sail until there is a vaccine? Even if covid numbers peak and start to come down. Even if only a handful of people in the US have the disease it can spread again, right? So isn’t that 12-18 months of shut down?

I just don’t see how any of the cruise lines can survive that. I hope I’m wrong.


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[Ourusualbeach]

3 minutes ago, Builder31 said:

Am I wrong to think no cruise ship will sail until there is a vaccine? Even if covid numbers peak and start to come down. Even if only a handful of people in the US have the disease it can spread again, right? So isn’t that 12-18 months of shut down?

I just don’t see how any of the cruise lines can survive that. I hope I’m wrong.


Sent from my iPhone using Forums

China could resume sailing shortly.

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/22699-chinese-cruise-industry-could-start-up-first.html

[Roger88]

3 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

China could resume sailing shortly.

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/22699-chinese-cruise-industry-could-start-up-first.html

China is already sailing but only locally. In a few months they will forget about the start of this year. To me it all looks like some geneous PR. I mean seriously, while Europeans and Americans are struggling, these guy are redeveloping lol. Hope it will turn out good in the nearest future for us. I really want to go cruising.. in Asia. 
Do you know any asian cruisers? 

[ed01106]

26 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

China is already sailing but only locally. In a few months they will forget about the start of this year. To me it all looks like some geneous PR. I mean seriously, while Europeans and Americans are struggling, these guy are redeveloping lol. Hope it will turn out good in the nearest future for us. I really want to go cruising.. in Asia. 
Do you know any asian cruisers? 

Did you read the article?   China is NOT already sailing.  The Chinese cruise industry is talking about plans to resume cruising.  

[robntawn]

3 hours ago, Builder31 said:

Am I wrong to think no cruise ship will sail until there is a vaccine? Even if covid numbers peak and start to come down. Even if only a handful of people in the US have the disease it can spread again, right? So isn’t that 12-18 months of shut down?

I just don’t see how any of the cruise lines can survive that. I hope I’m wrong.


Sent from my iPhone using Forums

Perhaps POC Covid testing once it becomes widely available?

[Blizzard54]

4 minutes ago, robntawn said:

Perhaps POC Covid testing once it becomes widely available?

The problem with that is it is a point in time.  You can be exposed and test negative for several days.  Then you can be positive mid-cruise.   They may start up sooner but there are probably a lot of people that may not want to get back on a ship until there is at least an effective treatment if not a vaccine.  

[ed01106]

6 minutes ago, Blizzard54 said:

The problem with that is it is a point in time.  You can be exposed and test negative for several days.  Then you can be positive mid-cruise.   They may start up sooner but there are probably a lot of people that may not want to get back on a ship until there is at least an effective treatment if not a vaccine.  

As long as a negative test means that you aren’t contagious than it is workable.  Just test daily, isolate anyone contagious.

 

We do that for a week or so and the disease will be virtually eliminated.

Edited April 1, 2020 by ed01106

[taglovestocruise]

19 hours ago, ed01106 said:

It implies that investing in the cruise industry makes about as much sense as licking subway poles.

Big downgrade today from major analysts. 18 month price target for RCL was lowered to $87.44.  

 ............From yahoo finance April 1 2020.

 The consensus price target fell 10% to US$87.44, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Royal Caribbean Cruises' valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Royal Caribbean Cruises at US$165 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$19.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely differing views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business. Consensus mid point price of $87 + -. 

 

[bigeck]

24 minutes ago, taglovestocruise said:

Big downgrade today from major analysts. 18 month price target for RCL was lowered to $87.44.  

 ............From yahoo finance April 1 2020.

 The consensus price target fell 10% to US$87.44, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Royal Caribbean Cruises' valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Royal Caribbean Cruises at US$165 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$19.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely differing views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business. Consensus mid point price of $87 + -. 

 

Thanks for the explanation

[sfaaa]

5 hours ago, Roger88 said:

China is already sailing but only locally. In a few months they will forget about the start of this year. To me it all looks like some geneous PR. I mean seriously, while Europeans and Americans are struggling, these guy are redeveloping lol. Hope it will turn out good in the nearest future for us. I really want to go cruising.. in Asia. 
Do you know any asian cruisers? 

I like your optimum but medical experts think there may be a second wave coming.

[mayleeman]

2 hours ago, irzero said:

British american tobacco can make 3m vaccines a week from june...

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Yeah, and if they find one that works and is safe it'll be great.

 

Of course, knowing Big Tobacco the delivery system will require smoking a medicine-infused cigarette--or ten.

[yogimax]

48 minutes ago, irzero said:

They are 6 months ahead of everyone else.
 

Really?  Please cite a source for this comment! 

 

[Baron Barracuda]

15 minutes ago, irzero said:

Try google. I cant remember which place but I watched their CEO on Bloomberg today as well.

If it's safe then it has major advantages over normal vaccine production methods. Looking to start human trials as soon as possible



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Three vaccine candidates already in human trials including Moderna.  My hopes lie with Regeneron and their miracle mice.  They start trials soon and sound confident of having their combined treatment / vaccine approved and in full production by August.  Regeneron has done it before, developing an ebola vaccine in only four months,

[gc]

2 hours ago, yogimax said:

Really?  Please cite a source for this comment! 

 

Citation....not likely 

 

Now Anecdotal comments...absolutely