RCL Stock

[Biker19]

For those only mildly interested, here the one month price history:

 

 

The $1B in convertible notes RCI completed this week, the conversion price is at $72/sh - nice timing on RCCL's part.

[Jimbo]

Looks like another stellar day in the stock market, mostly everything is tanking pre-market.

[hubofhockey]

6 hours ago, Jimbo said:

Looks like another stellar day in the stock market, mostly everything is tanking pre-market.

 

RCL is tanking at a much higher rate than the market.  I'd still get back in at $45, but I'd wait it out as it falls.

[Biker19]

9 minutes ago, hubofhockey said:

I'd still get back in at $45, but I'd wait it out as it falls.

@twangster may advise against that.

[hubofhockey]

6 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

@twangster may advise against that.

 

The market is so fickle.  It had no right trading back at pre-COVID cancellation rates, but nobody really knows the value of this company.  

[John&LaLa]

Stock is sinking like the Titanic

[Ourusualbeach]

35 minutes ago, hubofhockey said:

RCL is tanking at a much higher rate than the market

Yep, and when it goes up it goes up way quicker than the market.  All the cruise lines are volatile compared to the market. 

[twangster]

Royal stock is the fodder for day traders at the moment.  Long term it won't likely work out as an investment but if you can stomach riding the roller coaster at the moment you could profit by playing the pre-bankruptcy ups and downs to your advantage.  

[hubofhockey]

16 minutes ago, twangster said:

Royal stock is the fodder for day traders at the moment.  Long term it won't likely work out as an investment but if you can stomach riding the roller coaster at the moment you could profit by playing the pre-bankruptcy ups and downs to your advantage.  

 

I can't argue with you and I don't have a strong enough stomach for that stock.  I should stay out.  In the overall scheme of things, $5500 for 100 shares would be such a small piece of my overall assets, but it's still real money.  The convertible debt holders can still convert and dilute the stock.  

[John&LaLa]

[Dennis#1]

Definitely not a good day for RCL stock.

[Baron Barracuda]

1 hour ago, hubofhockey said:

 

I can't argue with you and I don't have a strong enough stomach for that stock.  I should stay out.  In the overall scheme of things, $5500 for 100 shares would be such a small piece of my overall assets, but it's still real money.  The convertible debt holders can still convert and dilute the stock.  

Issuance of the convert put pressure on the stock.  Last week when stock was trading in low $70's smart guys could buy the convert which is convertible at $72/sh  and hedge the position by selling common stock short against it.  Enabled them to pocket interest received on the bond while having no exposure to the stock.  Nice trade.  No longer works with stock at current level.

[mpk]

Kinda funny how the naysayers were awfully quiet during RCL long ride up from 34 in mid May.  It's down the last couple of days, and they're back.

 

tldr- it's a choppy market.  The cruise stocks will go up and down along with all travel related stocks.  It will be more volatile than other industries.  There really isn't much to say that hasn't already been said the last time around.

[Wolf 8]

Bought 100 shares today on a $54.50 per share limit order that transacted at the closing bell.  Short term I may enjoy a dead cat bounce and see some pocket change.  Long term I win if big pharma announces that clinical trials show a viable vaccine is on the way that can be plunged into the eager arms of Celebrity cruisers within 8 to 12 months.

 

My wife and I enjoyed out time on the Silhouette last December and that may have clouded my judgement in buying these few shares of RCL stock.  Maybe it was just the hope that soon we'll all be able to resume cruising and the other good things in life that swayed me to place the order.

 

 

 

[hubofhockey]

41 minutes ago, Wolf 8 said:

Bought 100 shares today on a $54.50 per share limit order that transacted at the closing bell.  Short term I may enjoy a dead cat bounce and see some pocket change.  Long term I win if big pharma announces that clinical trials show a viable vaccine is on the way that can be plunged into the eager arms of Celebrity cruisers within 8 to 12 months.

 

My wife and I enjoyed out time on the Silhouette last December and that may have clouded my judgement in buying these few shares of RCL stock.  Maybe it was just the hope that soon we'll all be able to resume cruising and the other good things in life that swayed me to place the order.

 

 

 

 

I love the company.  I have been on Royal, Celebrity, and Azamara and all are great brands.  Our next is on Silversea and RCL owns 2/3 of that line.  The product is great, but the industry and coming back from COVID with all of the debt is a huge problem. I don't want to wish you bad luck, but I'm hoping it tanks back into the $30s at a level I'd feel comfortable buying 100 shares back.

Edited June 11, 2020 by hubofhockey

[Ourusualbeach]

50 minutes ago, hubofhockey said:

but I'm hoping it tanks back into the $30s at a level I'd feel comfortable buying 100 shares

I think many are hoping to see those numbers again to buy back in, myself included.

[frank808]

I think many are hoping to see those numbers again to buy back in, myself included.

I have a buy limit set in the upper $20's. Dont need more RCL stock but at that price, would be worth buying more.

Stock market is a legal form of gambling for us folks here in the 50th state. Although you can do your research on companies and make an educated guess.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[Wolf 8]

14 hours ago, hubofhockey said:

 

I love the company.  I have been on Royal, Celebrity, and Azamara and all are great brands.  Our next is on Silversea and RCL owns 2/3 of that line.  The product is great, but the industry and coming back from COVID with all of the debt is a huge problem. I don't want to wish you bad luck, but I'm hoping it tanks back into the $30s at a level I'd feel comfortable buying 100 shares back.

 

I completely agree that the risks facing RCL and it's stock are enormous.  This morning after it popped I put in a stop limit sell order at $57 so at least now I'll come out a little ahead if it tanks again.  If it gets down to the $30's and isn't teetering on bankruptcy I'll be right there with you ready to buy back in.

[hubofhockey]

Looks like today it is settling in at 59-60, but that still doesn't sit right with me.  It will probably go up again when/if a vaccine comes out. If it goes into the 30s, I'll buy.  If not, I'll remain a customer of all of their brands (although a bit upset at Azamara for their usual FCC and pricing games and inflexibility).

[SherriZ366]

On 6/8/2020 at 11:11 PM, John&LaLa said:

 

Just did all mine electronically. Not sure anyone mentioned that.

 

I think I got $950 potentially across 8 cruises

3 at $50

3 at $100

2 at $250

Need to do mine.  

[Dennis#1]

Recently purchased 100 shares of RCL.  Can you get both the C&A Balcony discount and the  Shareholder OBC for the same cruise?

[Ourusualbeach]

11 minutes ago, Dennis#1 said:

Recently purchased 100 shares of RCL.  Can you get both the C&A Balcony discount and the  Shareholder OBC for the same cruise?

Yes, they are now combinable. 

[Dennis#1]

18 minutes ago, Dennis#1 said:

Recently purchased 100 shares of RCL.  Can you get both the C&A Balcony discount and the  Shareholder OBC for the same cruise?

 

6 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Yes, they are now combinable. 

Thanks for your quick response.

[LXA350]

On 6/12/2020 at 1:42 AM, hubofhockey said:

 

I love the company.  I have been on Royal, Celebrity, and Azamara and all are great brands.  Our next is on Silversea and RCL owns 2/3 of that line.  The product is great, but the industry and coming back from COVID with all of the debt is a huge problem. I don't want to wish you bad luck, but I'm hoping it tanks back into the $30s at a level I'd feel comfortable buying 100 shares back.

 

I don't think we will see the stock go back below 30 or even down to levels in March unless a big time 2nd wave will hit us to an extent that the current halt to cruising will need to be extended or shortly after restarting cruising will be discontinued again without persectives when it can resume again. Otherwise for the time being we will see some further fluctuations in the share, great for day traders but I doubt under normal cirucmstances that we will see it drop below the upper 30's.

 

Nevertheless the markets are unpredictable and currently do anyway not reflect the real picture of the economy.

[taglovestocruise]

From JP Morgan today. 

Royal Caribbean (RCL)

We’ll start with Royal Caribbean, whose management Montour describes as “best in class.” The upshot is, that RCL shares are still available at a discount – and the company has several reasons for optimism going forward.

As Montour points out, RCL has a reputation for excellent physical infrastructure and operations – the company’s cruise ships and crews are generally considered industry leaders. With China opening up and loosening restrictions, RCL’s ticket prices have been holding up somewhat better than at peer companies. . Last month, RCL extended its suspension of sailings to the end of July, and the Q2 earnings forecast predicts a net loss of $4.43 per share – nearly triple the net loss reported in Q1. But these are likely balanced by the company’s strong liquidity position – it recently renegotiated more than $2.2 billion in debt – and its prospects for Q3 resumption of business in China.

Montour touches on the points in his comments on the stock: “Its relative liquidity position is no longer a concern, while its relative share outperformance and valuation is worth the step up in quality, in our view.”

Overall, Montour sees RCL as a stock worth the risks. He rates it a Buy, expecting the shares to outperform peers in the near future. His $72 price target implies an upside potential of 18% for the coming 12 months. (To watch Montour’s track record, click here)

The Wall Street view of RCL is still cautious. The stock’s recent rebound, despite underperforming the broader markets, has still pushed the share price well above the average price target – but even so, 9 out of 15 analysts rate the stock a Buy. With 4 Holds and 2 Sells, this makes the analyst consensus view a Moderate Buy. RCL shares are selling for $62.66; if it continues to appreciate, expect the analysts to adjust their targets upward