Carnival Stock Price Dropping

[Kenswing]

With the latest State Department advisory I wouldn't get anywhere near the buy button on cruise stocks for awhile.. 

[travelhound]

I agree. I think it's in a downward spiral. Just hoping the oil prices might be one expense that will be a little lower for them. I think this is going to take a long time to recover.

 

I'm a little surprised about that state department announcement.

Edited March 9, 2020 by travelhound

[CRUZBUDS]

We weren't  able to use the proxy, but it was years ago and we're not sure if it was Carnival or RCCL.  We just send a copy of our brokerage account with details blacked out -- as other have said, brokerage accounts are just fine.  

Edited March 9, 2020 by CRUZBUDS

[Kenswing]

1 minute ago, travelhound said:

I agree. I think it's in a downward spiral. Just hoping the oil prices might be one expense that will be a little lower for them. I think this is going to take a long time to recover.

I'm sure they'll be looking to do a whole lot of debt restructuring over the upcoming weeks.   Hopefully they'll have a little money to buy oil futures.. 

[npcl]

22 minutes ago, bluesea321 said:

 

Tomorrow will be a bloodbath; would not surprise me if they put a trading hold on the stock.

Doubt you will see a trading hold, unless CCL makes some kind of major corporate announcement.  Do expect CCL to drop between 10 and 25% though down into the low 20's and potential breaking through 20.  You have to go all the way back to 2008 to get to another support level.

[Kenswing]

6 minutes ago, npcl said:

Doubt you will see a trading hold, unless CCL makes some kind of major corporate announcement.  Do expect CCL to drop between 10 and 25% though down into the low 20's and potential breaking through 20.  You have to go all the way back to 2008 to get to another support level.

We might see a general market hold.  Futures just triggered the 5% down limit.  Tomorrow looks to be another bad day. 

[npcl]

15 minutes ago, travelhound said:

I agree. I think it's in a downward spiral. Just hoping the oil prices might be one expense that will be a little lower for them. I think this is going to take a long time to recover.

 

I'm a little surprised about that state department announcement.

CCL has got to be burning through its on hand cash pretty quickly.  Total current liabilities from their last 10k was a little over 9 billion of which 1.5 billion is current portion of long term debt, account payable 750 million and customer deposits in the range of 4.7 billion, compared to cash on hand of 500 million and trade and other receivables of 440 million.

 

They have lots of assets, but they (mostly property and ships to the tune of 38 billion) are not very liquid, so they could very easily run into a cash crunch if this goes on very long.

 

 

Edited March 9, 2020 by npcl

[npcl]

4 minutes ago, Kenswing said:

We might see a general market hold.  Futures just triggered the 5% down limit.  Tomorrow looks to be another bad day. 

That is more likely than a CCL hold.

[buggins0402]

39 minutes ago, npcl said:

CCL has got to be burning through its on hand cash pretty quickly.  Total current liabilities from their last 10k was a little over 9 billion of which 1.5 billion is current portion of long term debt, account payable 750 million and customer deposits in the range of 4.7 billion, compared to cash on hand of 500 million and trade and other receivables of 440 million.

 

They have lots of assets, but they (mostly property and ships to the tune of 38 billion) are not very liquid, so they could very easily run into a cash crunch if this goes on very long.

 

 

What is the committed bank LOC and usage?

[npcl]

6 minutes ago, buggins0402 said:

What is the committed bank LOC and usage?

They had a 3 billion revolving credit facility of which 2.8 billion was available in November 2019.

 

So gives them some breathing room, but I suspect they will need more.

[chipmaster]

2 hours ago, PrincessLuver said:

 

Futures are already showing a 900 point drop for tomorrow morning.....yikes!!!

 

In the next 10 days or so we should expect virus in every state and deaths sadly in the majority of them by the end of month.    By the time they do act to curtail traveling and and lock downs ala Italy I suspect we'll be down another 15% or so, and if you got masks,  sanitizer solution,  and toilet papers you can make some serious money, LOL

[BCCRUSINGCOUPLE]

In my opinion there’s no better time to buy stock in Carnival I don’t think we’ll see the stock is low as it is now anytime soon. I’ve also purchased Norwegian and Royal Caribbean and saved a fair dollar. We all know once this virus goes away the ships will start to feel again and the stocks will grow


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[Justalone]

20 minutes ago, BCCRUSINGCOUPLE said:

In my opinion there’s no better time to buy stock in Carnival I don’t think we’ll see the stock is low as it is now anytime soon. I’ve also purchased Norwegian and Royal Caribbean and saved a fair dollar. We all know once this virus goes away the ships will start to feel again and the stocks will grow


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Yes. Buy CCL now.
I did put options on CCL 3 weeks ago.   Hoping CCL stock will go even lower.

Also placed a good till cancel buy order for CCL @$11.

Recently bought more gold bars “just in case “ the economy and stock market does a deep dive into recession.

Good luck.

Edited March 9, 2020 by Justalone

[mcrcruiser]

14 minutes ago, Justalone said:

Yes. Buy CCL now.
I did a put option 3 weeks ago.   Hoping CCL stock will go even lower.

Also placed a good till cancel buy order for CCL @$11.

Recently bought more gold bars “just in case “ the stock market does a deep dive into recession.

Good luck.

You got to wonder where some people get the idea that cruise line stocks or in  fact most stocks are a great buy when  it is more probable that we are headed into a recession or worse because of the damages this virus is doing to the disruption  many  vital supply lines  for  most companies  . Now with the 10 year bond paying less than 1%  ,imo precious metals are  a better buy for profit  .Shorting this market  is another good move at this time .

Edited March 9, 2020 by mcrcruiser

[mcrcruiser]

15 minutes ago, Justalone said:

Yes. Buy CCL now.
I did a put option 3 weeks ago.   Hoping CCL stock will go even lower.

Also placed a good till cancel buy order for CCL @$11.

Recently bought more gold bars “just in case “ the stock market does a deep dive into recession.

Good luck.

 Personally I wouldn't even place a $11 oder for CCL or RCL or NCL 

[BCCRUSINGCOUPLE]

 Personally I wouldn't even place a $11 oder for CCL or RCL or NCL 

Right now it is crashing if you hold on long term it will bounce back tang is what i have always done and it has worked for me


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[mcrcruiser]

5 minutes ago, BCCRUSINGCOUPLE said:

Right now it is crashing if you hold on long term it will bounce back tang is what i have always done and it has worked for me


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  Believe what you want  .CNN dow futures are showing 1174 points down at the open tomorrow . Those are facts not hopes or wishes  . In all truth I would not buy  any cruise line stocks  or travel stocks  .It is like skating up hill & the hill is full of  glue 

   My money is in cash & precious metals 

Edited March 9, 2020 by mcrcruiser

[BCCRUSINGCOUPLE]

  Believe what you want  .CNN dow futures are showing 1174 points down at the open tomorrow . Those are facts not hopes or wishes  . In all truth I would not buy  any cruise line stocks  or travel stocks  .It is like skating up hill & the hill is full of  glue 
   My money is in cash & precious metals 

Hey you are right however if you have a bit of spare money kicking around it’s the best time when Markets are low.


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[Justalone]

7 minutes ago, BCCRUSINGCOUPLE said:

Right now it is crashing if you hold on long term it will bounce back tang is what i have always done and it has worked for me


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Yes, hopefully one will not  die first before the stock bounces back.

[BCCRUSINGCOUPLE]

Yes, hopefully one will not  die first before the stock bounces back.

I am
All good under 50 I can ride it out.


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[npcl]

5 minutes ago, BCCRUSINGCOUPLE said:

Hey you are right however if you have a bit of spare money kicking around it’s the best time when Markets are low.


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Markets are low, but likely to go lower.  CCL stock likely to test the 2008 low which is the next technical support level.

Word has it that Cruise line management expected some additional screening requirements, but not the announcement by State and others to avoid cruising. 

 

I expect that CCL is either already tapping its line of credit or will be soon. 

[mcrcruiser]

2 minutes ago, BCCRUSINGCOUPLE said:

I am
All good under 50 I can ride it out.


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Maybe  . In a time like this of uncharted waters no  one can be certain of  profits  .

[mcrcruiser]

1 minute ago, npcl said:

Markets are low, but likely to go lower.  CCL stock likely to test the 2008 low which is the next technical support level.

Word has it that Cruise line management expected some additional screening requirements, but not the announcement by State and others to avoid cruising. 

 

I expect that CCL is either already tapping its line of credit or will be soon. 

 It is possible that they may have contingency plans to moth ball the ships  . Then they may also have plans to file for bankruptcy  protection . What will be a huge challenge are the ships already in construction  with those contracts

[npcl]

3 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

 It is possible that they may have contingency plans to moth ball the ships  . Then they may also have plans to file for bankruptcy  protection . What will be a huge challenge are the ships already in construction  with those contracts

I suspect that they have to be doing a lot of contingency planning.  The liability of prepaid deposits for cruises not yet taken at 4.5 billion (about 4 months of fare revenue) by itself is more than their cash on hand 500 million, receivables 450 million and revolving line of credit 3 billion.

 

Any substantial amount of refunds, would do a number on their cash flow, not even considering the actual profit/loss on operations.  If the virus is not dropping in 2-3 months I suspect that they will be in serious trouble.

[mcrcruiser]

4 minutes ago, npcl said:

I suspect that they have to be doing a lot of contingency planning.  The liability of prepaid deposits for cruises not yet taken at 4.5 billion (about 4 months of fare revenue) by itself is more than their cash on hand 500 million, receivables 450 million and revolving line of credit 3 billion.

 

Any substantial amount of refunds, would do a number on their cash flow, not even considering the actual profit/loss on operations.  If the virus is not dropping in 2-3 months I suspect that they will be in serious trouble.

Agree 100 %