Carnival Stock Price Dropping

[Thrak]

51 minutes ago, bluesea321 said:

 

And I expect it go further south.

 

 

Last night at midnight the stock hit $20.50

[kywildcatfanone]

I wish after I booked my last cruise, I sold my shares, and I would rebuy them now. 

[BCCRUSINGCOUPLE]

I think like everything they will bounce back but it will take awhile


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[CineGraphic]

We bought at 21.61

[npcl]

3 minutes ago, BCCRUSINGCOUPLE said:

I think like everything they will bounce back but it will take awhile


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Will go down further.

 

From analyst reports new bookings are down over 35% compared to last year at this time.That does not even take into account all of the canceled cruises, costs of refunds, as well as all of the FCC and OBC.

 

NCLH and RCL have already started tapping revolving lines of credit.

Think of this as a slow motion train wreck that will take months to complete.

 

CNBC had a good segment in the Covid-19 special dealing with the cruise lines.

Edited March 11, 2020 by npcl

[BCCRUSINGCOUPLE]

Will go down further.
 
From analyst reports new bookings are down over 35% compared to last year at this time.That does not even take into account all of the canceled cruises, costs of refunds, as well as all of the FCC and OBC.
 
NCLH and RCL have already started tapping revolving lines of credit.
 
CNBC had a good segment in the Covid-19 special dealing with the cruise lines.

I agree very tough tomes for the cruise lines And the families and the suppliers huge spin off on this


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[CruiseVA]

Already hold shares in the big 3, I'm keeping my $$$ liquid for the short term & watching...

 

[npcl]

CCL Bonds continue to weaken

 

Just took a look at CCL Bonds the 10/15/2020 that was paying 1.467 YTM two days ago,  paying 3.790 YTM yesterday is now paying above coupon price at 4.278 YTM. 

 

Considering how low treasuries are trading at, this certainly indicates concern.

 

[bluesea321]

1 hour ago, npcl said:

CCL Bonds continue to weaken

Just took a look at CCL Bonds the 10/15/2020 that was paying 1.467 YTM two days ago,  paying 3.790 YTM yesterday is now paying above coupon price at 4.278 YTM. 

Considering how low treasuries are trading at, this certainly indicates concern.

 

Their bond ratings may be in junk/speculative category in the near future and Royal is even in worse shape.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/royal-caribbean-may-cut-junk-143118077.html

Edited March 11, 2020 by bluesea321

[tgwabd]

The United States should not bail the cruise industry out, let the countries that flag them bail them out, if you claim to be an American company and flag your ships in another country to avoid labor laws you are on your own....

[fishnchips]

Pandemic declared... now what for shares ?

Edited March 11, 2020 by fishnchips

[Daniel A]

8 minutes ago, tgwabd said:

The United States should not bail the cruise industry out, let the countries that flag them bail them out, if you claim to be an American company and flag your ships in another country to avoid labor laws you are on your own....

Nice...  So I would presume you don't own any travel related stock, your pension plan didn't invest in the travel industry, your 401K doesn't contain any travel stocks and your family doesn't either.  Don't forget we should never bail out anyone who buys a foreign car and don't forget the airlines that hire foreigners and buy foreign aircraft, those who buy electronics not made in the US or drugs manufactured outside the US.

[rimmit]

13 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

No one should buy any cruise line  or in fact any stock until this chaos in the worlds  equity markets  corrects itself . Expect continued panic  .  With out a doubt ,all stock dividends are suspect  for being cut or lowered at best  . Unless  you have 10 plus years to get back the loses  venturing into this market is like walking off the  edge of the Grand Canyon 

This will recover faster than most people think.... assuming the cruise lines survive.  The attention span of the public is incredibly short lived.  Who remembers Volkswagen and Toyota’s scandals now?

 

We recently had a Hep A outbreak in our community and one restaurant had two workers positive.  It was Texas Roadhouse and it is the top Texas Roadhouse in the nation in terms of sales.  
 

After the outbreak it was crickets. We continued to eat their as it was cleaner then than ever before,  but it was dead empty.  They were doing sales, free apps, discounts, and anything to get people in the door.   
 

Fast forward one year later and it’s again the busiest in the nation again.

 

Point is, once this subsides, and the media gets bored of this,  life will eventually return to normal.  It may take a year or two to return to corona booking levels, but it will and it will return faster than most think.

 

I definitely wouldn’t buy any cruise stock now.  It has a ways to fall still.   But when it starts to move I’d definitely hop on board.

 

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by rimmit

[chipmaster]

34 minutes ago, rimmit said:

This will recover faster than most people think.... assuming the cruise lines survive.  The attention span of the public is incredibly short lived.  Who remembers Volkswagen and Toyota’s scandals now?

 

We recently had a Hep A outbreak in our community and one restaurant had two workers positive.  It was Texas Roadhouse and it is the top Texas Roadhouse in the nation in terms of sales.  
 

After the outbreak it was crickets. We continued to eat their as it was cleaner then than ever before,  but it was dead empty.  They were doing sales, free apps, discounts, and anything to get people in the door.   
 

Fast forward one year later and it’s again the busiest in the nation again.

 

Point is, once this subsides, and the media gets bored of this,  life will eventually return to normal.  It may take a year or two to return to corona booking levels, but it will and it will return faster than most think.

 

I definitely wouldn’t buy any cruise stock now.  It has a ways to fall still.   But when it starts to move I’d definitely hop on board.

 

 

 

Yup, it will most certainly go lower, look at the multiple dead cat bounce driven by computer trading that completely ignore smart human logical deduction that it will go lower.  It will return, but not for a bit, now the challenge is when to get back in or just trade the dead cat bounce, there were a few easy 2-3% gains to be made for the bold and fast traders. 

[rimmit]

2 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

there were a few easy 2-3% gains to be made for the bold and fast traders. 

Currently trying that for the first time ever.  Figure built up enough cash over the last 11 years in this stock to take a loss here and there. I’ve won more than lost but not by much. Figure playing with house money at this point though. It’s truly mind boggling just how the market always does what you don’t expect it to do lol.

[Justalone]

59 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

No one should buy any cruise line  or in fact any stock until this chaos in the worlds  equity markets  corrects itself . Expect continued panic  .  With out a doubt ,all stock dividends are suspect  for being cut or lowered at best  . Unless  you have 10 plus years to get back the loses  venturing into this market is like walking off the  edge of the Grand Canyon 

Agree.   Liking walking the plank off a Princess Cruise ship.   😁
ROI might be 10 + years.  Hopefully one lives long enough.  
That  is what my stock broker told me a month ago.  Thankfully, I listened to her.    🙂👍
Talk about “going down with the ship”.    😱
Enjoy your cruise(s).  Safe travels to those who choose to cruise during this pandemic. 🙏🙏

Edited March 11, 2020 by Justalone

[chipmaster]

14 minutes ago, rimmit said:

Currently trying that for the first time ever.  Figure built up enough cash over the last 11 years in this stock to take a loss here and there. I’ve won more than lost but not by much. Figure playing with house money at this point though. It’s truly mind boggling just how the market always does what you don’t expect it to do lol.

 

Like gambling don't take in what you can't lose.    Was it Buffet who said that nobody can predict what the market will do the next minute or the next day, NOBODY.   But if you do your research the trends for where things are in 10 years are driven by macro economics, fundamental valuations, trends and government policy/stability.  Understand those 4 things and you can do well for certain over a decade time period.   Always watch,  seek to research deeply and invest with the right horizon and you can do well.

 

I've took everything out in mid January and have been doing mental trades.  I'd say I'd be probably even.  But it is easy to say that when you are doing it mentally.   For the two big rallies, I think if I had money in the game and made that quick 4% you are too tempted to let it ride like most gamblers do when they are hot and lost it all the next day. 

 

But like the go go internet bubble days, there has never been a moment like now for the day trader.  Just be aware there is a huge hedge fund with a server close to the exchange front running us and making millions and billions ahead of us. 

 

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by chipmaster

[rimmit]

9 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

Like gambling don't take in what you can't lose.  

 

But like the go go internet bubble days, there has never been a moment like now for the day trader.  Just be aware there is a huge hedge fund with a server close to the exchange front running us and making millions and billions ahead of us. 

 

 

The only reason we bought this stock back in 2009 was for the stockholder credit cuz at $6.00 100 shares was a whopping $600 so we figured we’d buy a bunch of shares as we’d get it back pretty fast in stock holder credit. 
 

 It was never meant to be a a true investment although it just happened to take off, so anything we have here is truly play money. Sold half of our position in 2010 when it hit about $30 and sold the rest at $96 two weeks ago.  

 

I can lose it all and it doesn’t matter in terms of retirement, etc. We are truly playing with house money on this one.   And I have echo’d that sentiment multiple times in these stock threads.   “Don’t put in what you can’t lose.”

[Colo Cruiser]

1 minute ago, rimmit said:

The only reason we bought this stock back in 2009 was for the stockholder credit cuz at $6.00 100 shares was a whopping $600 so we figured we’d buy a bunch of shares as we’d get it back pretty fast in stock holder credit. 
 

 It was never meant to be a a true investment although it just happened to take off, so anything we have here is truly play money. Sold half of our position in 2010 when it hit about $30 and sold the rest at $96 two weeks ago.  

 

I can lose it all and it doesn’t matter in terms of retirement, etc. We are truly playing with house money on this one.   And I have echo’d that sentiment multiple times in these stock threads.   “Don’t put in what you can’t lose.”

As I always say IMO most on CC are looking for the OBC and not for investment only.

Thats all I purchased it for was the OBC.

I purchased for $12. I have no intentions of selling.

This too shall pass.

[Thrak]

1 hour ago, rimmit said:

I definitely wouldn’t buy any cruise stock now.  It has a ways to fall still.   But when it starts to move I’d definitely hop on board.

 

Just bought at $21.27. My wife said to buy another 100 shares (so not a huge investment) so I did.

 

Actually, at first I only "tried" to buy. The purchase was denied. After a very long time on hold with Ameritrade I finally got a person to speak with about the problem. (They are so slammed I got a senior investment advisor who pretty much never does this stuff but they had an "all hands on deck" sort of thing.) Turns out that when I originally opened the account with Scottrade - which was taken over by Ameritrade - they opened an "illegal" type of account. Even though it's a joint account, because I live in California which is a community property state, it has to be a joint account with rights of survivorship. Scottrade apparently was "sloppy" with their accounts. The guy got me unlocked for a few hours but it will be locked again at 3:00 PM. I have to send a letter to them asking to change the account type. As soon as I was off the phone I made the purchase and it went through fine.

 

If it goes up all is well. If it goes down a lot we may well buy another 100 shares. I believe it will recover.

[Thrak]

7 minutes ago, rimmit said:

Sold half of our position in 2010 when it hit about $30 and sold the rest at $96 two weeks ago.  

 

 

$96?????  I don't recall CCL getting that high. $66 yes. $71 or so yes. $96... no.  Did I miss something or is this merely a typo?

[rimmit]

3 minutes ago, Thrak said:

 

$96?????  I don't recall CCL getting that high. $66 yes. $71 or so yes. $96... no.  Did I miss something or is this merely a typo?

Sorry.  Thought I was In The rcl stock thread.  So much happening in the market hard to keep up with which stock i am talking about so definitely don’t take my advice on anything. Lol

Edited March 11, 2020 by rimmit

[Colo Cruiser]

3 minutes ago, Thrak said:

 

$96?????  I don't recall CCL getting that high. $66 yes. $71 or so yes. $96... no.  Did I miss something or is this merely a typo?

Yeah high sixties.

[rkacruiser]

1 hour ago, Justalone said:

ROI might be 10 + years.  Hopefully one lives long enough.

 

I am a pleased owner of CCL and RCL common stock.  Have been for many years and am interested in buying more once we see "the light at the end of the tunnel" for the current crisis.  However, I have a very large "But..." in my mind.  I am a "buy and hold" type of investor.  As a senior citizen, becoming more senior with each day I am given to be one, is making an additional investment a wise one for my long term benefit?  My financial adviser and I discussed this early in the week.  Still unsure what to do.  And, when?  (It's not now, I am reasonably certain.) 

[Justalone]

56 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

I am a pleased owner of CCL and RCL common stock.  Have been for many years and am interested in buying more once we see "the light at the end of the tunnel" for the current crisis.  However, I have a very large "But..." in my mind.  I am a "buy and hold" type of investor.  As a senior citizen, becoming more senior with each day I am given to be one, is making an additional investment a wise one for my long term benefit?  My financial adviser and I discussed this early in the week.  Still unsure what to do.  And, when?  (It's not now, I am reasonably certain.) 

Agree.  You would be wise to.