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Carnival Stock Price Dropping

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1 hour ago, bajakiter said:

This is why we didn't want a FCC of $15,000. We would have much preferred a refund of the $15,000.

CCL and the rest of the cruise industry is in very deep trouble.

That FCC is not going to be worth very much if this keeps up.

Not to mention whatever new rules they want to apply to FCC if they are ever able to be used.  We took the cash and we will let those who took the FCC roll the dice.  We have enough to think about as it is.

 

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On 2/27/2020 at 4:01 PM, semibeater said:

I just added to my holdings at $32. Are we at bottom? Dividend and OBC have already paid handsomely.  Also just booked my winter cruise for coming Fall. I'm all in as they say at poker table.

this post didn’t age well 😞

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5 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

this post didn’t age well 😞

well we win some and we lose some

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I know nothing about oil other than prices right now are at record lows.

 

Are there opportunities for cruise lines to buy up or lock in some very low prices right now to greatly reduce fuel costs when cruising resumes?  How does all that work?

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Never invest more than you can afford to lose. Stocks can go to zero, and sometimes they do lose all of their value.

That being said, with prices under $10/share, the downside is limited to a lot less than it was a month ago.

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On 2/27/2020 at 3:18 PM, npcl said:

While I have held CCL stock as a long term hold, this virus situation is unique.  When news of the impact on cruises in Asia broke I first sold my shares above 100 (11 years of reinvested dividends), when it became apparent last week of community spread outside of China, I sold the rest of the shares.  I have one cruise this week where I already have the stock benefit.  My next one is August.  I canceled 3 in between.  Depending upon if I decide to keep the cruise booking at last payment date and depending upon the stock price at that time.

 

I expect the situation to worsen for the cruise lines and as such I expect the stock price to drop more before this is over.  So why wouldn't I sell in the short term and actually profit from the down turn instead of taking a paper loss.

 

 

I just listened    to  White House Press conference re:  latest news  as to  testing  therapies ;   , the need for more hosptial rooms in N YC and elsewhere.  Pres. Trump reported   that  MIcky Arison  telephoned him to offer Carni val ships for use,,,  seeing they have  lots of '  rooms'   He said  they could  have the ships,  very quickly     to NYC, California and whatever port city may need them,   very quickly   .  Not the first time ships  have been used in local/National emergencies.  THEREfore, one would  think  it  possible  Carnival Corp stands   ready to possibly cancel many previously  scheduled cruises.   It was not clear to me if President Trump or Mr Arison meant  Car nival  cruiser line,  HAL   , Prncess Cruise Line etc etc  or any.Won't d  o much to help the free fall price of Carnival stock  Yet kudos to C arnival for offering.

 

 

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5 hours ago, RiotAct said:

this post didn’t age well 😞

I agree. Let's see how everyone did that bought in a couple of years. I have two cruises booked later this year at decent prices. 

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8 minutes ago, semibeater said:

I agree. Let's see how everyone did that bought in a couple of years. I have two cruises booked later this year at decent prices. 

Nice.  I’m tempted to book a Carnival cruise for spring of ‘21 but I haven’t pulled the trigger yet

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6 hours ago, dockman said:

I know nothing about oil other than prices right now are at record lows.

 

Are there opportunities for cruise lines to buy up or lock in some very low prices right now to greatly reduce fuel costs when cruising resumes?  How does all that work?

 

I think there is such an opportunity to do so.  I don't know how it works.  If my memory is correct, in the past, Carnival Corporation has not done so while Royal Caribbean International has.  I have no idea as to how that really worked for either company.  Maybe another CC member will post and provide some clarity on this topic.

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6 hours ago, sail7seas said:

 

 

I just listened    to  White House Press conference re:  latest news  as to  testing  therapies ;   , the need for more hosptial rooms in N YC and elsewhere.  Pres. Trump reported   that  MIcky Arison  telephoned him to offer Carni val ships for use,,,  seeing they have  lots of '  rooms'   He said  they could  have the ships,  very quickly     to NYC, California and whatever port city may need them,   very quickly   .  Not the first time ships  have been used in local/National emergencies.  THEREfore, one would  think  it  possible  Carnival Corp stands   ready to possibly cancel many previously  scheduled cruises.   It was not clear to me if President Trump or Mr Arison meant  Car nival  cruiser line,  HAL   , Prncess Cruise Line etc etc  or any.Won't d  o much to help the free fall price of Carnival stock  Yet kudos to C arnival for offering.

 

 

 

Carnival stock started rising and finished up.  The President made sure to give carnival specifically kudos

 

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11 hours ago, HAL4NOW said:

Never invest more than you can afford to lose. Stocks can go to zero, and sometimes they do lose all of their value.

That being said, with prices under $10/share, the downside is limited to a lot less than it was a month ago.

Good companies don’t. 

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9 hours ago, MoneyGuy said:

Good companies don’t. 

 

In normal times, probably so.  Now, all bets are off.

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15 hours ago, VermeulT said:

 

Carnival stock started rising and finished up.  The President made sure to give carnival specifically kudos

 

  Yes  🙂

 

 

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As with most things in life:  The tide comes in, the tide goes out.

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14 hours ago, cruiserchuck said:

 

In normal times, probably so.  Now, all bets are off.

 

If you’re a long-term investor buy good companies you’ll be fine. If you’re not long term, don’t buy. If they’re not good companies, don’t buy. This will pass; I’m buying these shares at sale prices. 

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Disaster for CCL. Two infected ships. Costa Luminosa ...

 

"Stranded cruise ship passengers describe chaotic flight home"

 

https://www.mrt.com/news/medical/article/Quarantined-cruise-passengers-arrive-from-France-15145818.php

 

"4 People Aboard Cruise Ship In Australia Test Positive For Coronavirus"

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/20/818791352/4-people-aboard-cruise-ship-in-australia-test-positive-for-coronavirus

 

Ruby Princess 2,700 pax allowed to disembark. Some on flights to USA.

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Interesting thought - at $10 a share (Thursday close), a 100 share purchase costs $1000.  One 14 day cruise earns you $250 in OBC - a 25% return.  Lets hope that they keep this program going!

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17 minutes ago, DaveOKC said:

Interesting thought - at $10 a share (Thursday close), a 100 share purchase costs $1000.  One 14 day cruise earns you $250 in OBC - a 25% return.  Lets hope that they keep this program going!

 

I waited until price was below $10 to buy my 100 shares. I already have two cruises booked that will provide $500 OBC assuming they sail as planned -- so at worst I'll be out less than $500. 

 

I cannot imagine them changing the shareholder credit for a while -- they will need to get pax back on board the ships.

 

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CCL could specify that the shareholder credit is only available to shareholders of record before 3/1/2021 or some other date. Much like what occurs when a stock splits.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, freestyling said:

CCL could specify that the shareholder credit is only available to shareholders of record before 3/1/2021 or some other date. Much like what occurs when a stock splits.

 

 

Again, though, I think that would be the wrong thing to do in a period when they will be looking to get people cruising again...

Edited by cruisemom42

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

 

Again, though, I think that would be the wrong thing to do in a period when they will be looking to get people cruising again...

I doubt that they would eliminate the shareholder OBC, much more likely the shares themselves would be wiped in a BK.

 

There is also the possibility that if there was a government bailout to the cruise industry, the limitations imposed as part of such a package which would certainly eliminate the companies ability to pay dividends and do stock buy backs just might classify the shareholder benefit as something else the company would need to stop, since like dividends it is a benefit to shareholders.

Edited by npcl

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Oops, I really don't like to pile on. But, this is important.

 

Sourced from the Princess forum...

 

"Meanwhile, Harry Curtis, who covers the cruise industry for Instinet, wrote in a note Monday that the “U.S.-listed cruise operators have enough borrowing capacity, cash and CapEx flexibility to stay afloat for roughly a year.”

He estimates that Norwegian, the smallest of the three cruise operators in terms of revenues, has the most staying power right now, with a monthly cash burn of about $140 million and liquidity, or cash, of about $1.6 billion. He puts Royal Caribbean in second place in terms of liquidity, followed by Carnival.

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cruise-operators-seem-left-out-of-the-850-billion-stimulus-plan-their-stocks-are-sinking-again-51584464624

Edited 43 minutes ago by cruzsnooze"

 

 

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How to make or lose a lot of $$.

 

1.  Buy CCL stock at today's prices and sit tight for 3 to 5 years and make a pile of $$.

 

2.  Buy CCL stock at today's prices  and it goes bust and you lose a pile of $$.

 

My bet is on #1.

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