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Daniel A

Carnival Stock Price Dropping

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1 minute ago, Sue from Canada said:

Can we hold Carnival stock in our TFSA?  

 

Yes. Publicly traded companies are RRSP and TFSA eligible. In fact, a TFSA is a great option if you expect high growth (which would be tax-free, but losses are not deductible).  

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3 hours ago, dockman said:

How to make or lose a lot of $$.

 

1.  Buy CCL stock at today's prices and sit tight for 3 to 5 years and make a pile of $$.

 

2.  Buy CCL stock at today's prices  and it goes bust and you lose a pile of $$.

 

My bet is on #1.

Will see where this goes. My bet is on #2

Unfortunately, our $15,000 FCC will probably disappear as well.

If this situation drags on then we might very well never see cruising as we know it today.

The government may mandate much smaller ships, say 250 max passengers.

It may be like 100 years ago, when cruising was only for the very wealthy.

We are in an unprecedented situation.

All bets are off for me.

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30 minutes ago, bajakiter said:

Will see where this goes. My bet is on #2

Unfortunately, our $15,000 FCC will probably disappear as well.

If this situation drags on then we might very well never see cruising as we know it today.

The government may mandate much smaller ships, say 250 max passengers.

It may be like 100 years ago, when cruising was only for the very wealthy.

We are in an unprecedented situation.

All bets are off for me.

Pretty bold to pick option 2 and guarantee that they are going to go bankrupt. I never like to make predictions like that.  Too easy to be wrong.  Nevertheless it's here for all to see.

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4 hours ago, dockman said:

1.  Buy CCL stock at today's prices and sit tight for 3 to 5 years and make a pile of $$.

 

Owning common stock of any company ought to be a long term investment for the best possible returns in my opinion.  

 

That's my predicament at this stage of my my life.  What's my "long term"?  I have no reason to think it won't be the 3-5 years that you mention.  But, our Heavenly Father has not sent me an e-mail as to what to really expect.

 

I'm tempted to buy.  But......

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51 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Owning common stock of any company ought to be a long term investment for the best possible returns in my opinion.  

 

That's my predicament at this stage of my my life.  What's my "long term"?  I have no reason to think it won't be the 3-5 years that you mention.  But, our Heavenly Father has not sent me an e-mail as to what to really expect.

 

I'm tempted to buy.  But......

So let's say there is a 50/ 50 chance they go bankrupt or 50 /50 that in 4 years stock is back to 52 week high of about $60

 
IF you buy 1000 shares at today's $12 price and it goes bust you lost $12,000.
 
If you buy 1000 shares at today's $12 price and it goes to $60 you have made $48,000 (and you may also get some dividends and OBC)
 
Lot of ifs for sure but seems perhaps a better bet than you will get in any casino. 
 
 If I am right I will be going on a world cruise in about 4 years.  If i am wrong, maybe not.

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13 hours ago, Nymich said:

Pretty bold to pick option 2 and guarantee that they are going to go bankrupt. I never like to make predictions like that.  Too easy to be wrong.  Nevertheless it's here for all to see.

Nothing would please me more than to be able to look back at this in a year or two and find that I was completely wrong. 

At 71, this is the biggest crisis I have seen and probably will ever see in my lifetime.

Hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.

 

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How many people that are saying things will turn around and stock cannot possibly LOSE $$$ if you wait long enough??    Have any of you experienced stock loss such as Washington Mutual stock and the subsequent buy up by Chase............... stockholders were left with Bubkiss.    (spelling, but you know what I'm saying..............) and Chase purchased holdings for pennies on the dollar.........it was a thrashing for stockholders so while not common, it does happen and CCL appears to be tee'd up for such action given the disparity between what they say on any given day.......................  IMO

 

 

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If I felt like BK was coming I'd be loading up on debt, continuing to sell deposits, and staggering refunds also. 

 

The reality is no cruise company knows when the light at the end of the tunnel is coming. It is impossible to know how long these companies will bleed trying to meet overhead and debt obligations.  

 

Buying the stock now is pretty much only a yes/no bet on their survival.  Just my opinion. 

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10 minutes ago, thyme2go said:

How many people that are saying things will turn around and stock cannot possibly LOSE $$$ if you wait long enough??    Have any of you experienced stock loss such as Washington Mutual stock and the subsequent buy up by Chase............... stockholders were left with Bubkiss.    (spelling, but you know what I'm saying..............) and Chase purchased holdings for pennies on the dollar.........it was a thrashing for stockholders so while not common, it does happen and CCL appears to be tee'd up for such action given the disparity between what they say on any given day.......................  IMO

 

 

I know EXACTLY what you're saying.  I was a shareholder in Colonial BancGroup (CNB), the largest bank failure of 2009.  That actually caused me to get out of the market completely for a few years.  Then I bought CCL...for the OBC and steady dividends.  And that has been my ONLY position in securities since Colonial bit me.  Well, now in my old age I have learned my lesson.  My life will end with all of my money stashed under the mattress, "withdrawing" only for daily needs.  <-- Just kidding, only kidding.  Will keep it only in high-yield money-market accounts.  Uh, "high yield" itself being a relative term these days 🙃.

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And this is why the advice is to hold broadly diversified mutual funds, NOT individual stocks.

 

If you had $1000 of Vanguard's S&P500 fund starting in 2008, even right now today, you would still have $1500 a 50% profit.

 

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1 hour ago, mrmoviezombie said:

And this is why the advice is to hold broadly diversified mutual funds, NOT individual stocks.

 

 

 

With all due respect I think most people are not only aware of this but doing it as well.  

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As an FYI, just saw that RCL has secured a 2.2B credit line. This caused the stock to pop up ~ $4  (~$27.50) a share at this point. I believe Carnival already has an approximately $3B LOC that they are already drawing against. 

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The very first. From CNBC blog...

 

"7:08 am: China to lift lockdown on Wuhan city, the epicenter


Two months after Chinese authorities locked down the city at the center of the outbreak, the end is in sight. Hubei province said that travel restrictions on the capital city of Wuhan will be removed starting April 8, which would end a lockdown that began on Jan. 23. New confirmed virus cases in China have dwindled in the last several days, with nearly all now attributed to travelers returning from overseas. —Evelyn Cheng"

 

 

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1 minute ago, HappyInVan said:

The very first. From CNBC blog...

 

"7:08 am: China to lift lockdown on Wuhan city, the epicenter


Two months after Chinese authorities locked down the city at the center of the outbreak, the end is in sight. Hubei province said that travel restrictions on the capital city of Wuhan will be removed starting April 8, which would end a lockdown that began on Jan. 23. New confirmed virus cases in China have dwindled in the last several days, with nearly all now attributed to travelers returning from overseas. —Evelyn Cheng"

 

 

What has your post have anything to do with the title of this thread?

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4 minutes ago, GeriatricNurse said:

What has your post have anything to do with the title of this thread?

 

You may not have noticed, but WHO has declared a Pandemic. Means that our medical insurance policies are void for this disease. There is no cruising unless you have a million to spend on medical care and evacuation. That's why CCL is at this price level.

 

As soon as there are enough success stories, WHO can lift the Pandemic alert. Insurance comes into effect again. The cruise companies can start to hope to resume itineraries. Big boost to CCL.

 

Hope this helps.

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Maybe the title of this thread should be changed to:

 

Carnival stock price rising.

 

Up from about $8 to now about $15.

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31 minutes ago, dockman said:

Maybe the title of this thread should be changed to:

 

Carnival stock price rising.

 

Up from about $8 to now about $15.

Unfortunately for me and others, the stock price won't have risen until it gets above $60.  :classic_sad: 

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Bought 100 shares for Mother when it was around $8 a few days ago....Just looked and today it's at $14......Just never got around to doing that for her before so now she's in and in at sales prices......

 

We'd had ours for years.....Think I paid $26 and received lots of OBC thru the years.  

 

You only loose money if you sell.....and never sell when it's down....this is the time to buy.

 

Smooth sailing everyone.......and wash your hands.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, FlaMariner said:

Bought 100 shares for Mother when it was around $8 a few days ago....Just looked and today it's at $14......Just never got around to doing that for her before so now she's in and in at sales prices......

 

We'd had ours for years.....Think I paid $26 and received lots of OBC thru the years.  

 

You only loose money if you sell.....and never sell when it's down....this is the time to buy.

 

Smooth sailing everyone.......and wash your hands.

 

 

We bailed on the stock back in early Feb and just bought back in last week. Did not catch it at the bottom, but got our shares for a good price. We've bought and sold several times over the decades as the share price has cycled with the general economy. Its nice that you only have to have it within 6 months of your sailing date, so we've never missed out on any OBC. 

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9 minutes ago, drowelf said:

 Its nice that you only have to have it within 6 months of your sailing date, so we've never missed out on any OBC. 

If you have the stock when you make a deposit on the cruise you can apply for the OBC right then.  I already have my Stockholder OBC applied to a cruise sailing a year from now.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

If you have the stock when you make a deposit on the cruise you can apply for the OBC right then.  I already have my Stockholder OBC applied to a cruise sailing a year from now.

It looks like they changed the rules at some point. My pre-2010 StockHolders Benefits stuff I have says 6 months, but those after that point don't mention it anymore. 

Edited by drowelf

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33 minutes ago, FlaMariner said:

Bought 100 shares for Mother when it was around $8 a few days ago....Just looked and today it's at $14......Just never got around to doing that for her before so now she's in and in at sales prices......

 

We'd had ours for years.....Think I paid $26 and received lots of OBC thru the years.  

 

You only loose money if you sell.....and never sell when it's down....this is the time to buy.

 

Smooth sailing everyone.......and wash your hands.

 

 

So if you had 100 shares between Mom and you $17 bucks a share.  Not bad at all  

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On 3/21/2020 at 8:15 PM, npcl said:

I doubt that they would eliminate the shareholder OBC, much more likely the shares themselves would be wiped in a BK.

 

There is also the possibility that if there was a government bailout to the cruise industry, the limitations imposed as part of such a package which would certainly eliminate the companies ability to pay dividends and do stock buy backs just might classify the shareholder benefit as something else the company would need to stop, since like dividends it is a benefit to shareholders.

You gain nothing for being just a shareholder, you have to be a passenger too.  It functions as a loyalty discount.  I doubt there will be prohibition on providing discounts for booking customers.

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Posted (edited)

Lots of interesting thoughts and I appreciate reading them.  Thank you.  What to do and when?  Still am unsure.

 

I received my First Quarter Dividend Reinvestment Statement for CCL this afternoon.  👎  It will the first of several account statements to come.

 

Please, Governor DeWine, don't close my wine store!!!!!

Edited by rkacruiser

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