I'm very concerned what to do.

[Cruise a holic]

Clearly much more dangerous then the flu!  

[brillohead]

1 hour ago, time4u2go said:

It has a fatality rate 25 times that of the flu.

 

No, it does not.  And you repeating it over and over doesn't make it true.

[time4u2go]

9 minutes ago, brillohead said:

 

No, it does not.  And you repeating it over and over doesn't make it true.

Yes it does.  The fatality rate of Coronavirus is 2.5%.  For the flu, it's 0.1%.  Do you have other numbers?

 

Also, I'm not the only one stating this.

Edited March 1, 2020 by time4u2go

[kerryincork]

9 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

Yes it does.  The fatality rate of Coronavirus is 2.5%.  For the flu, it's 0.1%.  Do you have other numbers?

 

Also, I'm not the only one stating this.

It only has an average death rate of 2.5%. If you are under 50 it is only 0.4 (1 in 250). If under 40 it drops further to 0.2 (1 in 500). Obviously over 50 and the death rate jumps a lot, but it is especially dangerous to those over 80 or have an underlying condition.

 

Further more the death rate is calculated against known cases & doesn't include all the non-reported cases due to mildness of symptoms.

it is estimated that 80% of people who catch the virus are not bothered by symptoms due to mildness of affects. If someone doesn't realise they have the virus they can't report it and it is not included in the overall death rate.

[TNcruising02]

Since the statistics are based on reported cases, the actual death rates could be lower.  Not every case is documented if the symptoms are mild.  Older people and people with pre-existing conditions are at a higher risk, which I assume is the same for the flu.  When stating the death rate, it's important to consider that breakdown and that not all cases have been recorded.  Also, likelihood of exposure is also important.  If living in China, the likelihood is high.  If living in the US, you are more likely to be exposed to and die from the flu.

 

AGE	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old	21.9%	14.8%
70-79 years old		8.0%
60-69 years old		3.6%
50-59 years old		1.3%
40-49 years old		0.4%
30-39 years old		0.2%
20-29 years old		0.2%
10-19 years old		0.2%
0-9 years old		no fatalities

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

 

 

[sellwingri]

2 hours ago, Cruise a holic said:

I think if you are in good health- wait- If you are vulnerable and get sick often- or are a super senior- cancel.

 

We are cruising in two weeks and I am nervous!  

We sail out of San Juan at the end of the month and our daughter is begging us to cancel.  I didn’t even think of cancelling but she is scared for us.  I think she is remembering a cruise we took about a year ago when we both came home sick (sinus infection and strep) and my husband ended up in the hospital.  

[brillohead]

Just now, time4u2go said:

Yes it does.  The fatality rate of Coronavirus is 2.5%.  For the flu, it's 0.1%.  Do you have other numbers?

There are all kinds of other numbers, depending on who you get them from. 

I've seen as low as 0.5% for COVID-19, and that is for confirmed cases.

Keep in mind that a LOT of people never get tested/diagnosed/treated for COVID-19.  In the vast majority of people (80+%), it's like a common cold.  

Let's use some round numbers, just because they're easier to work with.  Imagine a city of a million people.  Let's say 10% of them get infected -- that's 100,000 people who actually have COVID-19. 

 

Now let's say that 20% of those infected have "serious" symptoms -- enough to go see their doctor or go to the Emergency Department (being generous here with the 20% number -- most don't get that sick).  That's 20,000 people who actually get tested / reported as having COVID-19.

 

Now let's say that 1% of those people (who are all elderly or otherwise unhealthy -- no children or healthy young adults) unfortunately die from complications of COVID-19.  That's 200 people.  

That's 0.2% of the 100,000 who were infected with COVID-19, but it's 1% of the people who were sick enough to get tested for it.  And out of the city's entire population of 1,000,000?  It's a drop in the bucket.

Statistics are funny that way -- you can make them sound bad, if you manipulate them to report exactly what you want them to report.  

This virus isn't killing children and young adults like influenza does... you're not giving influenza the respect it deserves when you keep pushing your agenda.  ANY respiratory illness is dangerous to ANYone who is elderly, infirm, immunocompromised, etc.  But this is not The Black Death, leaving swaths of destruction in its path.  

If you're intent upon saving people from their demise, hate on ALL diseases, including influenza.  Until you're as scared of influenza as you are of COVID-19, though, you're just Chicken Little screaming about the sky falling.

[Joebucks]

You mean to tell me a bunch of cruisers are making decisions based off of feelings and perceptions instead of facts? Who would have thought?!

 

Look, I get having concerns. At the end of the day though, this is blown way out of proportion. Your chances of getting it are low. Unless you are in a poor bill of health and/or are really old, even if you do get it, you aren't at much risk for anything serious. Not anymore than dying of the flu, shark attack, lightning strike, or even things with high probability like car accident, none of which we don't think of because they aren't "new threats"

[time4u2go]

Absolutely there are unreported cases, which skews the numbers.  However, the same is true with the flu.

[brillohead]

1 minute ago, time4u2go said:

Absolutely there are unreported cases, which skews the numbers.  However, the same is true with the flu.

Actually, the CDC takes estimated unreported numbers into account in its totals, not just confirmed cases.... so no, the same is NOT true with the flu.  

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, brillohead said:

Actually, the CDC takes estimated unreported numbers into account in its totals, not just confirmed cases.... so no, the same is NOT true with the flu.  

 

Yes, but they also estimate deaths, adding to the death total using death certificates that never came in for flu...so they increase estimates for possible total numbers, but also possible deaths.

 

If you think Covid-19 is underestimating the contagion and light cases (and they probably are), you may be right.  But, they are not overestimating deaths, b/c they are using exact confirmed numbers from tests - so, if anything, they could also be undercounting deaths...b/c so few folks have gotten tested so far outside of China.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm

 

"Why doesn’t CDC base its seasonal flu mortality estimates only on death certificates that specifically list influenza?
Seasonal influenza may lead to death from other causes, such as pneumonia, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It has been recognized for many years that influenza is underreported on death certificates. There may be several reasons for underreporting, including that patients aren’t always tested for seasonal influenza virus infection, particularly older adults who are at greatest risk of seasonal influenza complications and death. Even if a patient is tested for influenza, influenza virus infection may not be identified because the influenza virus is only detectable for a limited number of days  after infection and many people don’t seek medical care in this interval. Additionally, some deaths – particularly among those 65 years and older – are associated with secondary complications of influenza (including bacterial pneumonias). For these and other reasons, modeling strategies are commonly used to estimate flu-associated deaths. Only counting deaths where influenza was recorded on a death certificate would be a gross underestimation of influenza’s true impact."

 

Right now, Covid-19 is doing that last line.  Only counting deaths on the certificate (aka confirmed test)...

Edited March 1, 2020 by TwoMisfits

[snoope]

Just have fun, like we did!

 

[hotsauce126]

If you're old, diabetic, and/or have heart problems its probably not a good idea to expose yourself to a higher risk of getting it

otherwise, its not really a big deal

[time4u2go]

22 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Yes, but they also estimate deaths, adding to the death total using death certificates that never came in for flu...so they increase estimates for possible total numbers, but also possible deaths.

 

If you think Covid-19 is underestimating the contagion and light cases (and they probably are), you may be right.  But, they are not overestimating deaths, b/c they are using exact confirmed numbers from tests - so, if anything, they could also be undercounting deaths...b/c so few folks have gotten tested so far outside of China.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm

 

"Why doesn’t CDC base its seasonal flu mortality estimates only on death certificates that specifically list influenza?
Seasonal influenza may lead to death from other causes, such as pneumonia, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It has been recognized for many years that influenza is underreported on death certificates. There may be several reasons for underreporting, including that patients aren’t always tested for seasonal influenza virus infection, particularly older adults who are at greatest risk of seasonal influenza complications and death. Even if a patient is tested for influenza, influenza virus infection may not be identified because the influenza virus is only detectable for a limited number of days  after infection and many people don’t seek medical care in this interval. Additionally, some deaths – particularly among those 65 years and older – are associated with secondary complications of influenza (including bacterial pneumonias). For these and other reasons, modeling strategies are commonly used to estimate flu-associated deaths. Only counting deaths where influenza was recorded on a death certificate would be a gross underestimation of influenza’s true impact."

 

Right now, Covid-19 is doing that last line.  Only counting deaths on the certificate (aka confirmed test)...

Excellent points.  Thank you!

Edited March 1, 2020 by time4u2go

[mek]

3 hours ago, sellwingri said:

We sail out of San Juan at the end of the month and our daughter is begging us to cancel.  I didn’t even think of cancelling but she is scared for us.  I think she is remembering a cruise we took about a year ago when we both came home sick (sinus infection and strep) and my husband ended up in the hospital.  

I've had a knee replaced and a bacterial infection scares me a heck of a lot more than this virus.

[Zendeck]

3 hours ago, snoope said:

Just have fun, like we did!

 

Thank you for the laugh!  My husband and I just both had a great ‘much needed’ belly laugh!  

[sockmonkeygirl]

Counting on RCI to keep me safe, because I'm booked for the end of May, and still going.  Yes, I'll take precautions to keep myself safe (mainly handwashing and not being near anyone who appears sick)  I will likely bring some masks, but don't plan on having to use them.  

[Cruise a holic]

45 minutes ago, Zendeck said:

Thank you for the laugh!  My husband and I just both had a great ‘much needed’ belly laugh!  

Guess it is essential to have an unlimited drink plan

[20165]

It will be very interesting to see how this plays out over the next couple of weeks because although it may not turn out to be the plague of the century, i dont think its going to get better in the near future meaning people, like myself, are rethinking being on a boat with 6k other people from across the country and elsewhere.  

[LizzieandLuke]

 

46 minutes ago, 20165 said:

It will be very interesting to see how this plays out over the next couple of weeks because although it may not turn out to be the plague of the century, i dont think its going to get better in the near future meaning people, like myself, are rethinking being on a boat with 6k other people from across the country and elsewhere.  

 

I agree with this.  I have cruise I have been really looking forward too in August.  However,  it seems crazy to put my family in harms way for the sake of a vacation.  My husband disagrees with me, but what if he is wrong.  

[brillohead]

54 minutes ago, LizzieandLuke said:

I agree with this.  I have cruise I have been really looking forward too in August.  However,  it seems crazy to put my family in harms way for the sake of a vacation.  My husband disagrees with me, but what if he is wrong.  

Do you stay in your house all winter long to avoid influenza or norovirus?  Do you never to go the grocery store, the cinema, sporting events, concerts, etc.?  

 

 

[neverbeenhere]

Note:

 

Moderna and Novavax apparently both currently have vaccines in trials. 

[LizzieandLuke]

12 minutes ago, brillohead said:

Do you stay in your house all winter long to avoid influenza or norovirus?  Do you never to go the grocery store, the cinema, sporting events, concerts, etc.?  

 

 

No - but everyone in my family gets the flu shot and novirus, although horrible, is almost never fatal.  The Coronavirus is very new - the CDC doesn't really know everything yet.  I'm 50 - no that is not old, but I'm not a spring chicken either.  And if the CDC suggests that I not go to the grocery store or sporting event - I won't.  I haven't cancelled my cruise, but as it gets closer to payoff I might.  

[brillohead]

42 minutes ago, LizzieandLuke said:

No - but everyone in my family gets the flu shot and novirus, although horrible, is almost never fatal.  The Coronavirus is very new - the CDC doesn't really know everything yet.  I'm 50 - no that is not old, but I'm not a spring chicken either.  And if the CDC suggests that I not go to the grocery store or sporting event - I won't.  I haven't cancelled my cruise, but as it gets closer to payoff I might.  

I'm the same age as you, and as an RN I have a more-than-average understanding of how the body works, and I wouldn't hesitate to go on any cruise that Royal doesn't cancel.  

[AlohaLivin]

2 hours ago, LizzieandLuke said:

 

 

I agree with this.  I have cruise I have been really looking forward too in August.  However,  it seems crazy to put my family in harms way for the sake of a vacation.  My husband disagrees with me, but what if he is wrong.  

 

I hope you will take this advice in the helpful light it is offered. I tell people with whom I work who worry too much this - you can only focus on the “probabilities” in life, because the “possibilities” (what you called “what if”) are truly endless and an huge waste of time.  😊

Edited March 1, 2020 by AlohaLivin