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MSC: Corona Virus and Cruising

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4 hours ago, cruiser man 60 said:

IMO, the low number of reported cases in some countries is that they don’t have the testing facilities or test kits. My DIL is from South Korea and she said the test they do takes 10 mins with an 85% accuracy.  This is from Worldometers:

 

I'm not surprised.  I was thinking there had to be a lot more cases than have been confirmed because they were only testing people with serious symptoms who had traveled from certain areas.

 

Do you think we'll start testing more now or do we not have enough test kits?

 

Here's a direct link to the information you posted: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

 

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2 hours ago, CruisinCrow said:

Do you think we'll start testing more now or do we not have enough test kits?

The CDC has already shipped 15,000+ test kits and another 50,000 are in production. Each test kit can perform between 700-800 tests (patient specimens).

As per today a patient needs a lab order from his physician. CDC and laboratories are not accepting samples without a suspected Coronavirus infection. That means the physician needs to order all regular test for flu (full respiratory panel) first to exclude any other infections.

I hope that much more test kits will be available in the near future and patients can be tested quicker. That said the bottle neck will be the capacity of CDC and laboratories. The can only run so much samples on a 24/7 basis equipped with the number of analyzers.

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1 hour ago, CruisinCrow said:

 

He got off the ship February 28.  That must mean he caught it on the cruise, unless the incubation is a lot shorter than thought.

 

The World Health Organisation say: 

Most estimates of the incubation period for COVID-19 range from 1-14 days, most commonly around five days.

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24 minutes ago, ziggyuk said:

 

The World Health Organisation say: 

Most estimates of the incubation period for COVID-19 range from 1-14 days, most commonly around five days.

 

Working backwards, he was confirmed yesterday and it takes a couple of days to get the test results.  Unless he caught it on his flight home, he very likely caught it on the cruise.

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, CruisinCrow said:

 

Working backwards, he was confirmed yesterday and it takes a couple of days to get the test results.  Unless he caught it on his flight home, he very likely caught it on the cruise.

 

He didn't fly home, he traveled through north Italy:

This passenger returned directly to Austria through northern Italy on 28 February immediately after disembarking from his cruise in Genoa, Italy.

 

I guess that's why they highlighted he traveled through north italy as it deflects from the ship.

Edited by ziggyuk

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5 minutes ago, ziggyuk said:

 

He didn't fly home, he traveled through north Italy:

This passenger returned directly to Austria through northern Italy on 28 February immediately after disembarking from his cruise in Genoa, Italy.

 

Ah, I read the link wrong.  When it said he "returned directly", I assumed he flew.

 

I hope they hurry up with the test kits that SirWolf mentioned.  This was just posted on CNN:

The King County Public Health Department in Washington state does not have enough coronavirus tests to meet the current demand, the department has confirmed to CNN.

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, CruisinCrow said:

 

Ah, I read the link wrong.  When it said he "returned directly", I assumed he flew.

 

I hope they hurry up with the test kits that SirWolf mentioned.  This was just posted on CNN:

The King County Public Health Department in Washington state does not have enough coronavirus tests to meet the current demand, the department has confirmed to CNN.

 

 

 

I'm worried they're going to add us to the list of unboardable locations soon... 😞

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5 minutes ago, jhaagens said:

I'm worried they're going to add us to the list of unboardable locations soon... 😞

 

Am I right in saying the cruise season starts in April for Seattle? I can understand the worry with all the cases.

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1 minute ago, ziggyuk said:

 

Am I right in saying the cruise season starts in April for Seattle? I can understand the worry with all the cases.

 

May, I think, is when my dad usually goes. (He used to work for RCCL.)   But, we have a cruise out of Miami planned April 4th.

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10 minutes ago, jhaagens said:

I'm worried they're going to add us to the list of unboardable locations soon... 😞

 

Well, there are about 30 cases in Washington vs over 300 from Japan and they haven't started denying people coming from Japan yet.  But tomorrow all the number could change...

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2 minutes ago, CruisinCrow said:

 

Well, there are about 30 cases in Washington vs over 300 from Japan and they haven't started denying people coming from Japan yet.  But tomorrow all the number could change...

 

We got hit with 30 new cases in the UK today, I believe this has gone beyond the point of no return.

If it continues the way it's going there will not be any point quarantining anywhere.

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Just in: "Official: new COVID decree measures here in Italy. All sports events - also Serie A - can only be done behind closed doors for 30 days. No more fans in the stadiums. "

 

If Italy is stopping fans from watching sport events in stadiums, why are cruise ships allowed to depart from Northern Italy with 5000+ passengers onboard? 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ziggyuk said:

 

We got hit with 30 new cases in the UK today, I believe this has gone beyond the point of no return.

If it continues the way it's going there will not be any point quarantining anywhere.

 

I'm not sure that you understand the implications of what you are saying. Wuhan, Daegu and Lombardy are examples of the expansion of the quarantine from individuals to cities, provinces and regions.

 

Governments will expand the quarantine areas in order to save the rest. Should Downing Street quarantine 5 million, life goes on for the other 50 million. Includes taking cruises if you so choose.

 

China is an example of its success. Currently, new confirmations are trickling in at the rate of low hundreds per day. We just need to hold out until a vaccine is available next year, or until the virus becomes dormant in summer.

 

 

Edited by HappyInVan

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Posted (edited)

Personally, I like to error on the side of respecting my fellow CC members. I know that I am intelligent enough to read critically and believe most CC members are also. If it's true that an internet post can prompt someone to actually cancel a trip, I might suggest they weren't cut out for travel to begin with. 

 

For those keeping track, there has been confirmed case in St. Barts (and the guests traveled to St Maartin). I believe MSC is still scheduling stops in St. Maartin so might want to keep an eye on this. Currently only St. Barts and the Dominican Republic are reporting confirmed cases (in the Caribbean).

 

https://www.antiguaobserver.com/breaking-news-three-cases-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-st-barthelemy-saint-martin/

 

 

 

 

Edited by BermudaBound2014

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5 hours ago, ziggyuk said:

 

We got hit with 30 new cases in the UK today, I believe this has gone beyond the point of no return.

If it continues the way it's going there will not be any point quarantining anywhere.

Whether it is an epidemic (localised), a pandemic (global) or endemic (a permanent virus like flu or colds), containment will still be the go-to solution until the majority of the population is vaccinated.

 

 

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On 3/3/2020 at 1:56 AM, cruiser man 60 said:

Hi CF , I do think the passengers should be pushing for compensation for these missed ports. the Meraviglia passengers got a full refund for some missports in Caribbean this week over a corona virus scare, which was flu. However they did have lots of irate Americans on Board demanding action which nearly turned into a fight!

Eventually everyone on this cruise was given a 100% refund on the cruise and excursions as well as a $200 on board credit per stateroom (we just paid for our add ons)  Americans were in the minority in this cruise and unless you were there it's pretty unfair of you to single us out as the 'irate ' and starting the fight.  Everyone (passengers and crew alike) were frustrated, add alcohol to this and an outburst was bound to happen. I was most impressed by the crew, who did a fantastic job of smiling, being professional and rolling with the punches because  they had no time off.

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7 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:


just to follow up on this topic- it appears some of the article linked were media sensationalism- looks like Opera has  left Athens and is sailing to Corfu now. Good news for msc.

 

 

Lets be honest here the Greek government probably wanted rid. If some one has been aboard that ship and been contagious then a lot more passengers will have it.

 

Western ideals prevent the logical approach of quarantine (forced and un-forced) like observed in China and its no surprise to see cases absolutely sky rocket in Europe and America. 

 

What does make me laugh is countries like Russia saying they only have 3 confirmed cases..........righto Mr Putin.

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10 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

I'm not sure that you understand the implications of what you are saying. Wuhan, Daegu and Lombardy are examples of the expansion of the quarantine from individuals to cities, provinces and regions.

 

Governments will expand the quarantine areas in order to save the rest. Should Downing Street quarantine 5 million, life goes on for the other 50 million. Includes taking cruises if you so choose.

 

China is an example of its success. Currently, new confirmations are trickling in at the rate of low hundreds per day. We just need to hold out until a vaccine is available next year, or until the virus becomes dormant in summer.

 

 

 

I understand perfectly and I hope you are right, but I sadly don't believe you are, the containment is working in Wuhan and Hubei province due to the (rightly) draconian and decisive actions the Chinese government have taken.

I don't believe western government will be willing to lock down whole major cities and provinces, I don't believe I will see whole states on lockdown with armed troops stopping movement on highways, all public transport (including airports) shut down and people on curfew, confined to their homes.

 

I therefore do believe we have gone past the point of no return and will eventually have to move out of the current "control" stage of controlling the virus. Our government has said in a worst case scenario, if we can't control the epidemic, we will see upto 80% infected and 1 in 5 off work sick, I personally think it is now unavoidable and at least our government is telling us what we may face.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/03/80-people-uk-catch-coronavirus-worst-case-scenario-12339867/.

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, ziggyuk said:

 

I therefore do believe we have gone past the point of no return and will eventually have to move out of the current "control" stage of controlling the virus. Our government has said in a worst case scenario, if we can't control the epidemic, we will see upto 80% infected and 1 in 5 off work sick, I personally think it is now unavoidable and at least our government is telling us what we may face.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/03/80-people-uk-catch-coronavirus-worst-case-scenario-12339867/.

 

What the CMO actually said was this ...

 

"Professor Chris Whitty, told a press conference in Downing Street that although they cannot be sure what proportion of the population could get infected, it will not go over 80 per cent...."

 

Anyway, your government may not be willing to do the unpopular. That merely means that the Rest Of The World quarantines you! No more cruise ships into Southampton. In fact, no more cruising. 

 

 

Edited by HappyInVan

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1 minute ago, HappyInVan said:

 

What the CMO actually said was this ...

 

"Professor Chris Whitty, told a press conference in Downing Street that although they cannot be sure what proportion of the population could get infected, it will not go over 80 per cent...."

 

Anyway, your government may not be willing to do the unpopular. That merely means that the Rest Of The World quarantines you!

 

 

 

Yes, that is why I said up to 80% > This means anything below but not over - Meaning.

When things worsen and I see California or Washington states shut down with armed troops preventing movement and all public transport shut down I will believe you, until then I won't.

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We had booked a guarantee Oceanview on the Splendida for May.  With the Coronavirus we were thinking of upgrading to a balcony.  At least there would be fresh air if there was a quarantine 😀.  While checking on prices we spotted that we were already upgraded to a balcony.  We're happy campers (cruisers) 😀

 

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