Re: COVID-19 global impact

[Toranut97]

This morning I attended a lecture regarding Coronavirus with Dr. James Dobbins, epidemiologist with the CDC. It was enlightening. To be unfairly brief about it, he felt the virus will spread a good deal more, but that it will begin to subside with global response and warmer weather. 
 

I am posting because he recommended a website from Johns Hopkins to monitor the spread of the virus and its imoact. Thought I would share the link.

 

Donna 
 

 Real time map COVID -19

[Petoonya]

1 hour ago, Toranut97 said:

Thought I would share the link.

Thank you Donna. Encouraging news indeed.

[drkitkat123]

Thanks but "warmer weather"? Half the world is going into winter. How does that even make sense?

[d9704011]

3 minutes ago, drkitkat123 said:

Thanks but "warmer weather"? Half the world is going into winter. How does that even make sense?

Well, I guess you could look at the current distribution of the illness and the number of people who live in the northern hemisphere and think of things from that perspective.

[Parapara]

I guess it makes some sense for two reasons. Half the world, which you and I live in, doesn’t have half the world’s population and secondly most cases are in the Northern Hemisphere to date. So, IF, it can be contained and cases drop in the Northern Hemisphere with the onset of warmer weather, it has to be good news.

[bbwex]

I think they are hoping that, like the flu, Covid-19 will diminish with warmer weather (in the north).  It could obviously get more widespread in the winter parts of the southern latitudes.  Health people in the U.S., China, and other places where it has been widespread are, I think, talking about the lessening of spread once the weather gets warmer.  Of course, if it isn't like the flu, then that bet is off.

[Fetchpeople]

I believe that the web site listed below is more complete as well as having frequent updates and details on new cases, etc.

 

Just be sure to scroll down to review all the data

 

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Toranut97]

13 minutes ago, Fetchpeople said:

I believe that the web site listed below is more complete as well as having frequent updates and details on new cases, etc.

 

Just be sure to scroll down to review all the data

 

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Thank you. Similar information in a different layout. The Johns Hopkins site is updated continually.

[Toranut97]

1 hour ago, bbwex said:

I think they are hoping that, like the flu, Covid-19 will diminish with warmer weather (in the north).  It could obviously get more widespread in the winter parts of the southern latitudes.  Health people in the U.S., China, and other places where it has been widespread are, I think, talking about the lessening of spread once the weather gets warmer.  Of course, if it isn't like the flu, then that bet is off.

Yes. And I suspect our speaker was trying to alleviate local anxiety. When asked why warmer weather would matter, he explained that the colder weather lead to the lungs being drier and absorbing the infections more readily.  
 

Dr. Dobbins drew comparisons to the SARS outbreak as well as the 2009 Mexican pandemic. Understanding the origins and evolution of the diseases was engrossing. This also taught about what does - and doesn’t - help to control or slow down the spread. 
 

 

[ldubs]

5 hours ago, Toranut97 said:

This morning I attended a lecture regarding Coronavirus with Dr. James Dobbins, epidemiologist with the CDC. It was enlightening. To be unfairly brief about it, he felt the virus will spread a good deal more, but that it will begin to subside with global response and warmer weather. 
 

I am posting because he recommended a website from Johns Hopkins to monitor the spread of the virus and its imoact. Thought I would share the link.

 

Donna 
 

 Real time map COVID -19

 

Thank you for sharing this.👍

[WaterView2]

I really don’t understand the warmer weather issue- there were cases in Jan.-Feb in Singapore, Thailand, Australia, Malaysia, all warm weather climates. In the USA there are cases in California which is not cold in the coastal areas. While the report is correct about the lungs being more susceptible in cold weather I doubt if warm weather will be a magic bullet.

[Paulchili]

I believe this is one of the most if not the most informative articles I have read on the subject:

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-questions-covid19-symptoms-deaths-spread#deadly

[Pedro22]

On 3/2/2020 at 3:46 PM, drkitkat123 said:

Thanks but "warmer weather"? Half the world is going into winter. How does that even make sense?

I live in Southern California on the coast and sometimes in the desert (Palm Springs) and there are cases there and one admitted to the hospital in Rancho Mirage. So I'm not too sure given how hot it's been if the warm weather will have the same impact on Wuhan Flu as it does on other coronaviruses like the common cold or influenza.  Dr. Anthony Faucci on CNN last night said they do not know enough about this virus to claim that it will subside in warm weather and that is an assumption that might not prove true for the Wuhan Flu.

[Paulchili]

44 minutes ago, Pedro22 said:

So I'm not too sure given how hot it's been if the warm weather will have the same impact on Wuhan Flu as it does on other coronaviruses like the common cold or influenza

If it did there would have been no corona in Singapore where it’s always hot and humid.

[buggins0402]

1 minute ago, Paulchili said:

If it did there would have been no corona in Singapore where it’s always hot and humid.

Was there much community spread there?  I thought most was imported, but I could be wrong.

[Paulchili]

52 minutes ago, buggins0402 said:

Was there much community spread there?  I thought most was imported, but I could be wrong.

You may well be right but the credit really goes to the Singapore government and health authorities for being prepared and handling it promptly - this is what you would expect in a place that I think is cleaner even than Switzerland and were it's against the law to chew gum 😀 and where you never have to worry about eating food from street vendors.

Have they not been prepared and handled it promptly I would assume that there would be more community spread like in all other places.

In other words, I don't think that it was the heat that stopped the community spread - at least IMO.

[tocruiseguy]

In Italy the climb in infections and even worse the number of deaths is disconcerting.  The death rate appears to be higher than China's, not sure how this spiralled out of control so quickly in that country. 

[buggins0402]

58 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

You may well be right but the credit really goes to the Singapore government and health authorities for being prepared and handling it promptly - this is what you would expect in a place that I think is cleaner even than Switzerland and were it's against the law to chew gum 😀 and where you never have to worry about eating food from street vendors.

Have they not been prepared and handled it promptly I would assume that there would be more community spread like in all other places.

In other words, I don't think that it was the heat that stopped the community spread - at least IMO.

Totally agree.  We don’t know what stopped the spread in Singapore.  I wish we had done more. 

[ldubs]

3 hours ago, Paulchili said:

You may well be right but the credit really goes to the Singapore government and health authorities for being prepared and handling it promptly - this is what you would expect in a place that I think is cleaner even than Switzerland and were it's against the law to chew gum 😀 and where you never have to worry about eating food from street vendors.

Have they not been prepared and handled it promptly I would assume that there would be more community spread like in all other places.

In other words, I don't think that it was the heat that stopped the community spread - at least IMO.

 

And, the citizens of Singapore too, IMO.  We were there when this thing busted wide open.  The response happened fast and everyone seemed to be pulling the same direction.  Pride is evident.   

[Paulchili]

14 minutes ago, ldubs said:

 

And, the citizens of Singapore too, IMO.  We were there when this thing busted wide open.  The response happened fast and everyone seemed to be pulling the same direction.  Pride is evident.   

Agree.

Pride is part of it but mostly it’s a population that has been taught over the years to obey the strict laws, or else. They have learned that lesson well and it leads to a clean, smoothly functioning and prospering city state.

It’s a great place to visit (not too sure about living there though 😃)

Edited March 10, 2020 by Paulchili

[ldubs]

39 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

Agree.

Pride is part of it but mostly it’s a population that has been taught over the years to obey the strict laws, or else. They have learned that lesson well and it leads to a clean, smoothly functioning and prospering city state.

It’s a great place to visit (not too sure about living there though 😃)

 

The standard of living is pretty high and quality of life too.  But, I think I'll stay put.  😀

[Paulchili]

2 minutes ago, ldubs said:

 

The standard of living is pretty high and quality of life too.  But, I think I'll stay put.  😀

Ditto 😃

[buggins0402]

13 hours ago, Paulchili said:

You may well be right but the credit really goes to the Singapore government and health authorities for being prepared and handling it promptly - this is what you would expect in a place that I think is cleaner even than Switzerland and were it's against the law to chew gum 😀 and where you never have to worry about eating food from street vendors.

Have they not been prepared and handled it promptly I would assume that there would be more community spread like in all other places.

In other words, I don't think that it was the heat that stopped the community spread - at least IMO.

Some good news.....hope they are right.

 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

 

 

 

 

 

[Paulchili]

9 minutes ago, buggins0402 said:

Some good news.....hope they are right.

 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

 

 

 

 

 

Very interesting indeed - I too hope that they are right.

Thanks 🙂

[buggins0402]

4 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

Very interesting indeed - I too hope that they are right.

Thanks 🙂

I’m also hoping the groundhog was right about an early spring  the Northern Hemisphere and a very mild winter in the Southern (this paper is correct.)😀