Can someone explain ?

[beachmad123]

Having looked at the worldwidef igures for the Coronavirus with currently under 100000.

Why are the uk government saying millions could be affected . To me its just not a logical assumption. I can see this could impact on if a cruise ship docks in certain countries but now I'm beginning to understand P O reluctance to cancel cruises 

[janny444]

14 minutes ago, beachmad123 said:

Having looked at the worldwidef igures for the Coronavirus with currently under 100000.

Why are the uk government saying millions could be affected . To me its just not a logical assumption. I can see this could impact on if a cruise ship docks in certain countries but now I'm beginning to understand P O reluctance to cancel cruises 

Hi....I think what they are really saying is that it has the " potential" to affect  millions....as any virus has the " potential. Compare the figures with the Swine flu of 2009 or the figures of the Asian flu in 1957.

[beachmad123]

If uk figures represent China figures. 

We can at the expect 6000 people get it and 180 people die. 

[davecttr]

The government have to plan for the worst case scenario which is somewhat similar to the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918. that killed over 200,000 in the UK  and upward of 50 million word wide.

 

Apparently COVID-19 is quite contagious and as nobody has any immunity to it because it is new there is the potential to infect millions of people in the UK. Whatever the final outcome all our lives are likely to be impacted in some way in the coming months.

 

Cruising has a particular problem as the authorities here have already said we might have to suggest those in the at risk groups, and that includes a LOT of cruise passengers, avoid crowded public spaces etc. A cruise ship is a crowded public space.

 

P&O are hoping this won't happen.

 

 

[Tommart]

36 minutes ago, beachmad123 said:

If uk figures represent China figures. 

We can at the expect 6000 people get it and 180 people die. 

How do you reach that conclusion?  3000+ people already in Italy, despite stringent measures, and 100+ deaths.  Current government reasonable worst case scenario predictions are for up to 80% of the population to be affected (48m) with a 1% death rate (elderly and existing conditions mainly)  - 480,000 people.

 

Is your information better than the  World Health Organisation's or the government's?

[beachmad123]

Sorry yes got my figures related to something else.

 

480000 catch it 18000 die

Based on the population of Wuhan being 11000000 and 80000 being infected and 3000 dying it appears to be slowing down or stopping multiple these factors by 6 to replicate the 66 million who live in the uk.

[terrierjohn]

14 minutes ago, Tommart said:

How do you reach that conclusion?  3000+ people already in Italy, despite stringent measures, and 100+ deaths.  Current government reasonable worst case scenario predictions are for up to 80% of the population to be affected (48m) with a 1% death rate (elderly and existing conditions mainly)  - 480,000 people.

 

Is your information better than the  World Health Organisation's or the government's?

Generally speaking yes, application of common sense after decades of misleading and downright incorrect data from WHO officials would tend to support this.

[beachmad123]

3 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

Generally speaking yes, application of common sense after decades of misleading and downright incorrect data from WHO officials would tend to support this.

Yes I agree Terrier John 

My figures are based on the reality of what's happened in Wuhan and we will have to wait for 3 months to see whether the figures are closer to reality than WHO hysteria. 

[Showingthatgame]

The reported cases of Wuhan dont contain everyone who has caught the virus. The reported figures are only the most serve cases. Those with mild symptoms are not included and that is where WHO has tried to guess the vast number with little to no symptoms. 

 

As for the original point its because of the large incubation period that the virus is able to spread before people even know they have it. As such its expected the virus will spread exponentially. The 80% infected is the worst case and at the moment its all about delaying the widespread infection until summer.

[Adawn47]

I think it's logical to look at some things on a worst case scenario.  Can you imagine the outcry if they treated this like a seasonal flu and we ended up like China. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

Avril

[Roger88]

2 hours ago, beachmad123 said:

Having looked at the worldwidef igures for the Coronavirus with currently under 100000.

Why are the uk government saying millions could be affected . To me its just not a logical assumption. I can see this could impact on if a cruise ship docks in certain countries but now I'm beginning to understand P O reluctance to cancel cruises 

Media always want to make a thing out of it. Even if you take into consideration all the information availble up to this day, you will notice that there was no british citizens among the affected people. Moreover, there are less than 0.1% of overall population inftected by the virus. Yes, its recommended to stay way from crowded places and etc but seriously like you have higher chances to be hit by car than getting corona virus. As far as cruises go, just choose routes that dont go to Asia. That would be my recommendation

[Adawn47]

23 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

Media always want to make a thing out of it. Even if you take into consideration all the information availble up to this day, you will notice that there was no british citizens among the affected people. Moreover, there are less than 0.1% of overall population inftected by the virus. Yes, its recommended to stay way from crowded places and etc but seriously like you have higher chances to be hit by car than getting corona virus. As far as cruises go, just choose routes that dont go to Asia. That would be my recommendation

There are 150  British quarantined on Grand Princess in San Francisco at the moment. One British person died from Diamond Princess. This virus is not unique to Asia. It's world wide with Italy being the worst in Europe at the moment. You have your own theories on this epidemic/pandemic and others have theirs. No offence intended but yours sounds like a recipe for disaster. Just noticed your favourite cruise line is Titanic😆. Enough said!!!

 

 

Edited March 6, 2020 by Adawn47

[Tommart]

42 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

Media always want to make a thing out of it. Even if you take into consideration all the information availble up to this day, you will notice that there was no british citizens among the affected people. Moreover, there are less than 0.1% of overall population inftected by the virus. Yes, its recommended to stay way from crowded places and etc but seriously like you have higher chances to be hit by car than getting corona virus. As far as cruises go, just choose routes that dont go to Asia. That would be my recommendation

Your recommendation is seriously flawed. It's spreading way beyond Asia, it's highly infectious, and it's now in America, where it's starting to spread. Slowly at first - that was the situation in Italy, but without any effective means of tracing the contacts of those first cases the history of this virus shows that the number of cases rises fast. Check a few facts.