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fstuff1

US Govt might consider ways to discourage some/all U.S. travelers from taking cruises

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13 minutes ago, Cruisercl said:

All speculation on your part based on the little knowledge of the exact numbers known.

Exactly the alarmist information the media has put out.

 

Not really convinced you are knowledgable about epidemiology; the statistics are inferential and therefore not considered significant, too many variables that bring bias to any determination of the numbers.

 

Are you even in healthcare?

What njhorseman says is true.  Its sad so much misinformation is out there.  In layman terms.  1 out of 1000 people who get the flu die from it.  About 3 out of 100 people who get coronavirus die from it.  That is much more deadly than the flu yet its still a  small percent mortality rate.  Also coronavirus appears to be much more contagious than the regular flu.  People need to stop comparing it to the flu.

Still no reason to panic but stop attacking facts.  If someone gave me 10 million dollars to infect myself with coronavirus and gave me a week to do so, I would be unsuccessful even if I tried.  

#facts

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, david_sobe said:

What njhorseman says is true.  Its sad so much misinformation is out there.  In layman terms.  1 out of 1000 people who get the flu die from it.  About 3 out of 100 people who get coronavirus die from it.  That is much more deadly than the flu yet its still a  small percent mortality rate.  Also coronavirus appears to be much more contagious than the regular flu.  People need to stop comparing it to the flu.

Still no reason to panic but stop attacking facts.  If someone gave me 10 million dollars to infect myself with coronavirus and gave me a week to do so, I would be unsuccessful even if I tried.  

#facts

Still speculation based on unknown numbers. No concrete or credible data available yet, so no facts.

Are you in healthcare?  It is a different persepective based on education and experience which the media and the general public doesn't have. Which one are you?

 

 

Edited by Cruisercl

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6 minutes ago, Cruisercl said:

All speculation on your part based on the little knowledge of the exact numbers known.

Exactly the alarmist information the media has put out.

 

Not really convinced you are knowledgable about epidemiology; the statistics are inferential and therefore not considered significant, too many variables that bring bias to any determination of the numbers.

 

Are you even in healthcare?

I don’t know what media you follow or where you get your news so I can’t comment on your characterization that it is “alarmist” information, but in my view the media would be negligent if they did not pass on the information and warnings issued by health authorities and health scientists. 


With all due respect, the numbers quoted by njhorseman reflect the best science estimates currently available. I am hopeful that when this all plays out in 14 to 16 months or so, the numbers will prove to be lower. However, until then there are real risks, especially to seniors, smokers, and those with other co-morbidities. And until then, I am going to rely more on science than some hunch.

 

We’re still planning on going on our cruise next week, but we will monitor developments and have contingencies.
 

P.

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9 minutes ago, PangeanSir said:

I don’t know what media you follow or where you get your news so I can’t comment on your characterization that it is “alarmist” information, but in my view the media would be negligent if they did not pass on the information and warnings issued by health authorities and health scientists. 


With all due respect, the numbers quoted by njhorseman reflect the best science estimates currently available. I am hopeful that when this all plays out in 14 to 16 months or so, the numbers will prove to be lower. However, until then there are real risks, especially to seniors, smokers, and those with other co-morbidities. And until then, I am going to rely more on science than some hunch.

 

We’re still planning on going on our cruise next week, but we will monitor developments and have contingencies.
 

P.

I agree everyone needs to take care of themselves based on what they believe is told to them.

However, the current science and experts indicate the risk is low overall. Those with other risk factors are mentioned in the message but they are at risk in any infectious disease issue, this is not new.

Stating some % based on generic or unknown numbers is not accurate or helpful, it sensationalizes the situation. I have watched the media and putting alarming adjectives around this is alarmist. It is very apparent that they are just repeating what the current science says but add tone and words that escalate the situation. Actually the information they report is very generic with lots of questions around it but this is info for the general public, it doesn't add up. 

Even the network science reporters, usually physicians, indicate the risk is low yet the anchors sensationalize things. Tabloid journalism and sadly, that is who people listen to, IMHO.

Take care and wash your hands (not saying you don't)! ☺

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5 hours ago, susanf31 said:

I just don't understand "screening before boarding."  It seems useless since most passengers will have flown in the day of or the day prior.  It takes 2 weeks for incubation, so if anyone is carrying the virus, it won't show up on embarkation screenings or even on disembarkation screenings.  

 

People can take Tylenol to bring their fever down to normal temporarily and appear healthy while embarking/disembarking, so even temperature screenings are pretty futile.

 

What am I missing...it seems so simple that this is all for not.

You are right, but it looks good, sounds good, and creates a false sense of security.

 

It can disclose who may be infected, but that is it. Having a cough or fever by itself doesn't mean you're infected; conversely, showing up without a cough or fever, doesn't mean you are healthy. 

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1 hour ago, turtlegirl2 said:

Dr. Fauci has been all over the TV today saying older ppl and ppl with high risk health conditions should stay off cruise ships at all costs. Maybe not just because you might get it but because of the risk of quarantine if someone else onboard has it. 

I saw that as well on Chris Wallace's show and it makes me nervous for the seniors in our group set to join us on the Breakaway next Saturday.

 

For those of us that are not considered "high risk" I would hate to walk off of that ship with no apparent symptoms, yet still infected, and come home and spread it among high risk family members and co-workers. 

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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, BirdTravels said:


Vice President Mike Pence, along with Florida Senators Rick Scott and Marco Rubio, and Governor Ron DeSantis, spoke at a press conference in Fort Lauderdale Saturday afternoon, addressing mounting concerns of the coronavirus and the effect it will have on the cruise industry.

"The American people deserve to know that the risk of contracting the coronavirus to the average American remains low," Pence said. "That being said we are going to lean into this effort."

Pence also announced a preliminary agreement he and cruise executives made to stop the spread of COVID-19 on ships. The Vice President said executives would work on ironing out the details over the next three days.

Some of the outlined rules included:

  • Further enhancements on entrance and exit screenings.
  • Establishing on-board coronavirus testing
  • New quarantine standards which will be coordinated with the Center of Disease Control and Prevention.
  • Developing a plan to move passengers who have contracted the virus to land-based facilities.

Cruise lines are a $45-billion industry, and South Florida is home to two of the three busiest ports in the United States. Nearly 6 million passengers set sail from Port Miami in the past year aboard more than 1,200 cruise ships that docked there.

Pence cautioned seniors with underlying health conditions to practice "common sense" in planning any cruise vacations.

 

and yet after that meeting with VP Pence yesterday, our govt issued this today:

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/before-you-go/travelers-with-special-considerations/cruise-ship-passengers.html

 

U.S. citizens, particularly travelers with underlying health conditions, should not travel by cruise ship. 

 

 

Edited by fstuff1

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@JPL1966 excellent article; however the NY Post is NOT a peer-refereed scientific journal and they are predicating the dropoff on other illnesses.   

 

Scientists are data-driven (I know this 100%); they are NOT going to say it WILL drop off by May at the latest, or even that there will be a seasonal dropoff, there is reason to HOPE - but there is no certainty because no data.  

 

With regard to the decrease in cases in China, and now S. Korea dropping off, there seems to be about a 2 month window of cases increasing and then decreasing, but is it because of quarantines or other reason?  So when China no longer quarantines Wuhan area, will there be a big upsurge in cases?  That's what I wonder.

 

With regard to the mortality rate, you can't consider the 3.4% valid, because it's totally age-dependent.  You see the first increase at 60-70, then bigger increase 70-80, then I think 10% 80 and above.  There are also other illnesses/conditions at any age that increase one's risk of death or very serious infection.  

 

I think each person has to consider their own personal risk factors vs the actual mortality data, and ask their doctor if they do have "co-morbidities" about how much at risk they are above the risk for their age.

 

And while I'm on the subject, I want to debunk the embarkation/debarkation checks.  They'll definitely catch the easy targets - folks boarding/debarking with symptoms, sure - but what about the pax who were exposed during their trip to the cruise, and the pax who caught it during the cruise?   Or crew members who were exposed during the last cruise but are asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic?  Sure, they are a great idea and absolutely worth doing, but do NOT assume you have zero risk of exposure because of them, quite the contrary.  NCL's sanitizing and your own excellent hygiene and handwashing are imperative as well.

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