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2 hours ago, fstuff1 said:

yeah, the finances of Ford today is nothing like the Ford of 2008 during the Great Recession.

back then Ford turned down a bailout. it's stock went from $1 to $15 in a couple of years.

 

today, i can see Ford go bankrupt and restructure, wiping out  shareholders.

 

Sure, as well as a lot of other companies, like various cruise lines, no company is invencible. be careful throwing money at stocks, now is not the time to buy, I look for a 15,000 target on the Dow, before this is over. Some may not like the sound of this, call me crazy, but I have seen this scenario play out in 1987, 2001, 2007-8, and again today. Soon you will hear about the bond defaults occurring: companies, cities, states, countries, airport, etc. The unemployment rate will increase, no one is going to want to buy a new car, house, major expenditures. 

Good luck. 

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2 hours ago, Da-Painter said:

Sure, as well as a lot of other companies, like various cruise lines, no company is invencible. be careful throwing money at stocks, now is not the time to buy, I look for a 15,000 target on the Dow, before this is over. Some may not like the sound of this, call me crazy, but I have seen this scenario play out in 1987, 2001, 2007-8, and again today. Soon you will hear about the bond defaults occurring: companies, cities, states, countries, airport, etc. The unemployment rate will increase, no one is going to want to buy a new car, house, major expenditures. 

Good luck. 

last week we joked about trump bailing out the cruise companies. lol.

 

and now the bailout comes with stipulations that these cruise companies cannot/don't want to meet.

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14 hours ago, kollegekreed said:

I finally pulled the trigger today...100 shares at $7.60 and then 25 shares of RCL at around $22

Agree. Just bought 100 ncl for $768. 

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18 hours ago, brigand13 said:

I started watching the stock prices early last week.  I know it's a gamble, but this seems like a great opportunity to get shares at a major discount (and not just for NCL, but also CCL and RCCL). 

Agree. And the critical word you used is gamble.....as long as you approach it as a pure gamble....the downside risk is known $10 per share; the upside is unknown....but lots of upside potential if they can fight through this virus.

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I was SO very proud of myself when i bought my NCL stock when it dove down to $33. As we speak it is at $21.52!  Well heck....



It’s going to keep on dropping and dropping


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You should all sell.  This company is going bankrupt.  It's too leveraged to survive this.  There's a reason the stock price is down like 70 percent.  We're looking at a worldwide cruising stop in the next month.  No way NCL survives that. 

I predict all crews companies will be going Chapter 11 with re-organization




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As more reports start to come out about recent positive cases of covid-19 on their ships, expect class action law suits to start popping up which will be the nail in the coffin for this stock. 

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I have a limit set to buy all 3 company stocks.  I don’t care what is happening short term.  Demand for cruising will renew after the immediate crisis is over.  The big 3 are not going to just fold and go away when the demand for millions to cruise will still be there.

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1 minute ago, Stealthdog said:

I have a limit set to buy all 3 company stocks.  I don’t care what is happening short term.  Demand for cruising will renew after the immediate crisis is over.  The big 3 are not going to just fold and go away when the demand for millions to cruise will still be there.

 

That's exactly my thought and reason why I want to buy. Sure its really bad now but I don't see these companies completely disappearing and eventually life, travel, and cruising will resume. So what is the risk now buying so low - it can only go up? I am not a stock or finance expert so maybe I am missing something.

 

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1 minute ago, webzila said:

 

That's exactly my thought and reason why I want to buy. Sure its really bad now but I don't see these companies completely disappearing and eventually life, travel, and cruising will resume. So what is the risk now buying so low - it can only go up? I am not a stock or finance expert so maybe I am missing something.

 


Im certainly not an expert, but how they operate will undoubtedly change.  I personally think dividends will be over (at least for a while), average costs may go up, probably changes/eliminations to shareholder benefits, how they are organized will change.  One thing I am confident of is the industry will not just cease to exist.  It wasn’t a dying industry struggling to market its product before this pandemic.  All 3 will probably survive, but will probably look a little different going forward.  

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How long did airlines take to rebound after 9/11 and bring back normal traffic patterns and revenue? At the end of the day humans are the ones who invest in these companies, not robots. Humans make decisions based on emotions, this will not be a rebound stock anytime soon. 

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3 minutes ago, webzila said:

 

That's exactly my thought and reason why I want to buy. Sure its really bad now but I don't see these companies completely disappearing and eventually life, travel, and cruising will resume. So what is the risk now buying so low - it can only go up? I am not a stock or finance expert so maybe I am missing something.

 

 

 

You're right, they aren't going to disappear BUT what happens now if any cruise line goes bankrupt?   Those shares you bought as a bargain could be worthless depending on all the terms and circumstances.   If you have some play money take the chance.  

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I think there is great opportunity in these stocks, but that depends on your timeline (when do you need the cash back, how long are you willing to wait) and willingness to risk bankruptcy. There are great advantages to going through bankruptcy for a company, which we saw many "big names" do for just that reason in the last big market crash.  NCLH is the smallest of the big boys so is probably least able to withstand a prolonged (6+ months) virus / travel ban scenario.

 

https://investorplace.com/2020/03/3-cruise-line-stocks-that-have-been-crushed-by-the-coronavirus/

 

I have some of NCLH and RCL but I don't consider them risk free nor do I expect to be in the positive anytime in the near term.

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I finally bought yesterday at 7.79.   I spent more at the art auction a couple weeks ago on the Bliss... 😂 

 

If it goes below $7, my wife will buy as well to double up on the OBC (assuming NCL still offers it).

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15 minutes ago, darkNstormy14 said:

 

 

If it goes below $7, my wife will buy as well to double up on the OBC (assuming NCL still offers it).

 

 

Can my family or friends sailing with me redeem the benefit too?

 

This exclusive benefit is only available for the stateroom in which the shareholder (with a minimum of 100 shares) is sailing. Onboard credit is applied on a per stateroom basis, double occupancy. Only one shareholder credit per stateroom/suite on any one sailing. if you are requesting shareholder onboard credit for two or more separate staterooms/suites and shares are held jointly, a minimum of 100 shares per stateroom/suite booked must be held. Singles paying 200% are entitled to full onboard credit value

 

http://www.nclhltdinvestor.com/static-files/23c8691e-2da7-4595-b132-a6ad137cf7f6

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10 minutes ago, ColeThornton said:

 

 

Can my family or friends sailing with me redeem the benefit too?

 

This exclusive benefit is only available for the stateroom in which the shareholder (with a minimum of 100 shares) is sailing. Onboard credit is applied on a per stateroom basis, double occupancy. Only one shareholder credit per stateroom/suite on any one sailing. if you are requesting shareholder onboard credit for two or more separate staterooms/suites and shares are held jointly, a minimum of 100 shares per stateroom/suite booked must be held. Singles paying 200% are entitled to full onboard credit value

 

http://www.nclhltdinvestor.com/static-files/23c8691e-2da7-4595-b132-a6ad137cf7f6

 

😞 Thanks @ColeThornton I didn't read the fine print.  In the new era, maybe they will honor a request to apply two credits.  ::fingers crossed::  ::fingers crossed that we can all cruise again too::

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43 minutes ago, ColeThornton said:

 

 

You're right, they aren't going to disappear BUT what happens now if any cruise line goes bankrupt?   Those shares you bought as a bargain could be worthless depending on all the terms and circumstances.   If you have some play money take the chance.  


It depends on the bankruptcy.  I’m willing to gamble that any of these 3, if they enter into some form of chapter 11, will ultimately come out of it reorganized into a stronger position.  But that is a gamble - the whole stock market is a gamble.

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I would not be surprised to see a pre-packaged bankruptcy for NCL, followed by one of their competitors snapping them up.  Think TWA and American (granted the timing was dreadful for that one), or Delta and Northwest.  All of the lines are heavily leveraged, but there could be an opportunity for some consolidation, which would lead to greater pricing power/discipline in the months ahead.

 

Complete speculation on my part.

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49 minutes ago, Stealthdog said:


It depends on the bankruptcy.  I’m willing to gamble that any of these 3, if they enter into some form of chapter 11, will ultimately come out of it reorganized into a stronger position.  But that is a gamble - the whole stock market is a gamble.

with shareholders wiped out when they emerge

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12 hours ago, Da-Painter said:

Sure, as well as a lot of other companies, like various cruise lines, no company is invencible. be careful throwing money at stocks, now is not the time to buy, I look for a 15,000 target on the Dow, before this is over. Some may not like the sound of this, call me crazy, but I have seen this scenario play out in 1987, 2001, 2007-8, and again today. Soon you will hear about the bond defaults occurring: companies, cities, states, countries, airport, etc. The unemployment rate will increase, no one is going to want to buy a new car, house, major expenditures. 

Good luck. 

Word,  a large percentage of people  on these boards are long because they love cruising (like I do) however even after the crisis is over demand will be low due to numerous reasons, just a few 1  What type of people would want to take a cruise with the risks (perceived or fact) about diseases on ships.   2  What kind of disposable income will people have

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2 hours ago, Stealthdog said:

I have a limit set to buy all 3 company stocks.  I don’t care what is happening short term.  Demand for cruising will renew after the immediate crisis is over.  The big 3 are not going to just fold and go away when the demand for millions to cruise will still be there.

you do know that Delta, Northwest, Continental, Us Airways, United etc...  All declared chapter 11 in the past.  I think maybe some people dont understand the difference between chapter 11 reorg and chapter 7 liquidation.

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1 hour ago, Newleno said:

you do know that Delta, Northwest, Continental, Us Airways, United etc...  All declared chapter 11 in the past.  I think maybe some people dont understand the difference between chapter 11 reorg and chapter 7 liquidation.


I know the difference.

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I would ask one simple question of the people who have a greater understanding of stocks than I do, if the company is as close to bankruptcy as many believe, why are quite a few of the top shareholders buying large quantities of the stock still? Are they throwing good money after bad or  just speculating for a future turnaround? 
   Personally I will lose Almost three times more in cruise next certificates than I spent for my 100 shares yesterday should they go bankrupt, but neither money is needed elsewhere in my life nor being the cause of a sacrifice to my family so why not gamble an extra 750 over the 2,000 in cruise next Is my attitude .

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1 hour ago, Newleno said:

Word,  a large percentage of people  on these boards are long because they love cruising (like I do) however even after the crisis is over demand will be low due to numerous reasons, just a few 1  What type of people would want to take a cruise with the risks (perceived or fact) about diseases on ships.   2  What kind of disposable income will people have

.

In my case, when ships start sailing again, I will treat it like inaugurals and remodels. I will refrain from cruising for a few months to get comfortable that things are safe onboard again. Let those who are antsy to cruise go an works the kinks out so to speak.

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