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Just now, fstuff1 said:
 

 

so why is ncl stock climbing 15% today?!

 

 

You ask this pretty much every time it goes up.   Read through some of the financial sites, they do a pretty good job of reporting it in simple terms so a layman can understand.  Individual stocks don't just go up/down based on what that particular stock does but also goes up/down based on what the market trends and industries are doing overall.  

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20 minutes ago, fstuff1 said:

here's the revised bill the Senate passed last nite:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/whats-in-stimulus-package-coronavirus-149282

 

"the oil industry is getting nothing — and neither are the Postal Service and cruise companies." 😮

 

so why is ncl stock climbing 15% today?!

 

NCL has two issues.

 

1) It is burning money while shutdown

2) When they reopen no one will have money to book cruises

 

The deal fixed problem 2.

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7 minutes ago, JohnIreland said:

 

NCL has two issues.

 

1) It is burning money while shutdown

2) When they reopen no one will have money to book cruises

 

The deal fixed problem 2.

 

 

John, agree with 1, not 2.   Lots of people will still have discretionary funds available.  Many, many of the people who are getting laid off are service industry workers who wouldn't be purchasing cruises regardless.

 

 

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On 3/9/2020 at 12:55 PM, Hrhbob said:

I was SO very proud of myself when i bought my NCL stock when it dove down to $33. As we speak it is at $21.52!  Well heck....

 

Don't beat you're self up, you have lots of company.

 

Yesterday at less than ten bucks was really a steal. Stock up.

 

Cheers. 

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2 hours ago, sandpiper35 said:

 

Don't beat you're self up, you have lots of company.

 

Yesterday at less than ten bucks was really a steal. Stock up.

 

Cheers. 

What if it all goes poof? 😱

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4 hours ago, fstuff1 said:

here's the revised bill the Senate passed last nite:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/whats-in-stimulus-package-coronavirus-149282

 

"the oil industry is getting nothing — and neither are the Postal Service and cruise companies." 😮

 

so why is ncl stock climbing 15% today?!

 

But that very same article does go on to suggest further help.

 

  • Cruise industry relief

  • What they got: The deal does not appear to include any direct funding for the ailing cruise ship industry, which has been devastated by the pandemic.
  • Why it matters: Trump has called the cruise industry a “prime candidate” for federal assistance and a “great and important industry,” so look for further efforts from the administration to support the struggling sector.

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14 minutes ago, molole said:

What if it all goes poof? 😱

What if it goes back to 60??    😱   

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Posted (edited)

In case you're wondering what's going on financially with NCL's competition:

 

- Carnivale:

Survival analysis doesnt look good due to their debt load:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/27/will-carnival-survive-the-covid-19-crash.aspx

 

$1.8B due in 2020 alone!

$1.92 billion due in 2021.

they also have 17 cruise ships ordered across their various lines to be delivered by 2025 with TEN of them to be delivered by 2021. 😨

YIKES!

 

Even if they max out their line of credit, they will be $500M short in covering their expenses. And that's just for this year. Double YIKES!

 

 

- Royal

They took out a new $2.2B line of credit earlier this week and drew all of it. :classic_ohmy:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/23/royal-caribbean-takes-out-a-new-22-billion-loan.aspx

 

No idea why they did that. They had $1.4B in the bank. :classic_blink:

so now they have $3.6B in cash and paying interest on at least $2.2B of it.

 

Edited by fstuff1

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On 3/26/2020 at 3:38 PM, oteixeira said:

What if it goes back to 60??    😱   

Good man.... I have confidence the US/world will pull through this .... the markets will wobble in short term but those that put their money down now will be handsomely rewarded in the long term.    I've made several purchases of NCL snd RCL in the last few days....bought more in the red slide today.....  

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As a stockholder, I hope it survives. But anyone remember Enron, Worldcom?  Nobody believed it could go to zero...

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On 3/26/2020 at 10:41 PM, FiremedicMike151 said:

I picked up 25 shares at $10.25, pretty happy with that snag..

 

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, sr71_1 said:

Good man.... I have confidence the US/world will pull through this .... the markets will wobble in short term but those that put their money down now will be handsomely rewarded in the long term.    I've made several purchases of NCL snd RCL in the last few days....bought more in the red slide today.....  

 

If I had the capital to open a day trader account, I could have made an absolute killing off just NCLH/RCL/CCL this week.  The daily swings have been insane and fairly predictable.. 

Edited by FiremedicMike151

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I wouldn't expect Trump to help the cruise lines themselves, since they have purposely avoided the US registry to avoid taxes etc., which I agree.  Why help foreign companies who pay no taxes?  Help for the people who work in support of the lines, yes they should be helped.  Exactly why I asked for refund versus FCC; not sure all will survive! 

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I have to wonder if NCL would even consider a US a bailout in exchange for flagging their ships in the US?  Could they still be profitable following US laws?  

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16 minutes ago, Islandhop9 said:

I have to wonder if NCL would even consider a US a bailout in exchange for flagging their ships in the US?  Could they still be profitable following US laws?  

 

Nope. 

But why should they be flagged in the US? All of the aspects why people take a cruise and is popular has nothing to do with the US. The great service of the staff - not US. The exotic destinations - not US. The cheap prices for local tours and food in the ports - not US...

 

There are two reasons the cruise line have a good chance to get supported (by whatever name and instrument). Support for the US embarkation ports and to continue to give mid to low income Americans a chance to have an affordable vacation. 

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32 minutes ago, Islandhop9 said:

I have to wonder if NCL would even consider a US a bailout in exchange for flagging their ships in the US?  Could they still be profitable following US laws?  

It would depend on whether or not execs still wanted to fatten up their wallets with lucrative salaries and stock compensation. It would also depend on whether or not they could set pricing at higher levels to support the costs associated with flagging ships in the US.

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On 3/26/2020 at 3:38 PM, oteixeira said:

What if it goes back to 60??    😱   

IF NCL is able to avoid bankruptcy from this crisis, Avoid a depression, regain public trust at some point in the future, then yeah, maybe you’ll see It his $60 again in 2025

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1 hour ago, JamesGNYC said:

IF NCL is able to avoid bankruptcy from this crisis, Avoid a depression, regain public trust at some point in the future, then yeah, maybe you’ll see It his $60 again in 2025

500% over five years. Sign us all up.

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15 hours ago, HEATH3913 said:

500% over five years. Sign us all up.



If only all my holdings did this....I could be retired and sailing full time in the Haven.   LOL

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Question as a stockholder newbie: Would the Carnival announcement bring NCL stock down? Would it even affect NCL stock prices?

 

Thanks for the insight!

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1 hour ago, 3dogmom said:

Question as a stockholder newbie: Would the Carnival announcement bring NCL stock down? Would it even affect NCL stock prices?

 

Thanks for the insight!

 

It could, it might not.  It depends how much investors link Carnival to the cruise industry in general. 

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I'm getting very suspicious regarding their cash on hand and ability to raise money without liquidating.

 

I have two reasons for my suspicion:

 

1) Yesterday they announced a VERY customer-unfriendly refund policy, where nobody gets a cash refund unless they fill out a form by April 27 -- even for cruises scheduled as late as May 10!  Then it will be another 90 days to receive the refund.

 

2) They have set a May 11th hard date to resume cruising.  Not a tentative date.  A hard date.  It's very possible this still won't happen, but I'm wondering if they will go under if they can't start running by May 11.

 

The only sign that they may not yet be in financial dire straits?  They haven't yet lowered the prices for future cruises, but instead are leaving them highly inflated in order to snag the suckers using newly-issued FCCs.  You would think they would start selling bargain future cruises if they needed immediate cash.  However, it's possible they are worried that this would accomplish little, as almost all of those bookings would be FCC people anyway, with the general public mostly too scared to even take a free cruise right now.

 

Anyway, I'd hold off with these $10 per share purchases until we have more clarity.

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I just purchased some shares, does anyone think it's going to go down anymore

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